GP Predictions Game Year 2 :)

[tulosai]

I posted above, but I can make the spreadsheet later tonight (am at work). I would prefer not to score though, so if we can get people to help with that, we'd be set to go!

Yaaaay!!!

And I agree with Li'Kitsu- by all means open a thread!!!

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Yepp, the one without google was me!
CaroLiza_fan, thanks for the PM and for getting this rolling
So I'm in the majority here when I say I have no idea how to do this spread sheet... and I think I won't have the time to do them. At least for the nationals game, I could still help with the scoring though, so I think we'd have enough scorers again?
Maybe Macassar88 will really have the time to help out a little and at least explain how you do the scoring sheets (I shouldn't tell anyone I'm an engineer, I'm so bad at technic stuff like this "xD)

Maybe we could open a thread already though, even if we're not completly sure about the organisation - everyone need some time to realize the game continues and come up with some predictions after all

Right, this reply is for everybody.

I'm going to start a new thread in the Nationals Sub-forum shortly, now that we know for definite that it is going ahead. But first, to reply to your comments.

pitterpatter has offered to set up the spreadsheet, so I am gratefully accepting that very kind offer!

Mrs. P has also offered to help with the initial setup of spreadsheet, with regards to providing the formulae to do the calculations. This will also be of great help, so thank you for your kindness!

The following have very kindly offered up their services for scoring:

Li'Kitsu
Wilhelmina
guenever

FSGMT has also offered to help. It would be great to have somebody else in a similar time zone to me involved! So, would you be willing to do scoring too?

Does anybody have a preference for any particular category to score? (Hope I'm not opening up a can of worms with this question! )

Thank you all so much for getting this off the ground. It should be fun!!!

CaroLiza_fan

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I posted above, but I can make the spreadsheet later tonight (am at work). I would prefer not to score though, so if we can get people to help with that, we'd be set to go!

Oh, I'm sorry... there you see how long I take to write a reply. Thanks a lot!!

And CaroLiza_fan, I'll score whatever category needs to be scored. So if someone else has preferences, just speak up ^^

 

[pitterpatter]

Hmm, for the game I think we'll definitely need to exclude any disciplines with fewer than ~6 or ~8 competitors as someone mentioned above. It might also be hard to do top 5 for some of these competitions, do you guys think its worthwhile to keep it at top 5 or would top 3 make more sense?

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Hmm, for the game I think we'll definitely need to exclude any disciplines with fewer than ~6 or ~8 competitors as someone mentioned above. It might also be hard to do top 5 for some of these competitions, do you guys think its worthwhile to keep it at top 5 or would top 3 make more sense?

Personally, I think that just carrying over the same rules from the GP Game would be the best course of action for everybody.

So, predict a top 6, and score the top 5.

I don't like the idea of excluding disciplines with low entries when we are including other disciplines from the same event. It would not be fair if Pairs and Dance were only counting towards the scores in a few of the events. it would get to the stage that these disciplines would be meaningless towards the overall results, which would be a shame.

On the other hand, it would not be fair if players were raking up points by predicting results in disciplines with only 2 entries! So, maybe there should be a cut-off point.

But, if we were to provide a cut-off point, I think it should be 6. After all, it would be hypocritical to saw "exclude disciplines with fewer than 8 entries" when the GP Final had only 6 slots in all 4 disciplines!

My own opinion is that it would be the lesser of two evils to include them. But, I'll go with what the majority of the organisers think.

So, please express your opinion below

CaroLiza_fan

 

[FSGMT]

FSGMT has also offered to help. It would be great to have somebody else in a similar time zone to me involved! So, would you be willing to do scoring too?

Yes, that's ok for me! I don't have any particular preference, after all scoring is scoring! Please when you have organized all this send a PM to me to explain all the details (I'm not exactly a "computer genius", too )

 

[tulosai]

Personally, I think that just carrying over the same rules from the GP Game would be the best course of action for everybody.

So, predict a top 6, and score the top 5.

I don't like the idea of excluding disciplines with low entries when we are including other disciplines from the same event. It would not be fair if Pairs and Dance were only counting towards the scores in a few of the events. it would get to the stage that these disciplines would be meaningless towards the overall results, which would be a shame.

On the other hand, it would not be fair if players were raking up points by predicting results in disciplines with only 2 entries! So, maybe there should be a cut-off point.

But, if we were to provide a cut-off point, I think it should be 6. After all, it would be hypocritical to saw "exclude disciplines with fewer than 8 entries" when the GP Final had only 6 slots in all 4 disciplines!

My own opinion is that it would be the lesser of two evils to include them. But, I'll go with what the majority of the organisers think.

So, please express your opinion below

CaroLiza_fan

I'm not an organizer, but I think I'd vote for the cut off point to be 5? That way, you could just guess 5 for that particular group (which is how many would be scored anyway, without an alt) and 6 for the other groups.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Just to let you know that I have started the general discussion thread for the new Game. it can be viewed at:

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...ls-Series-Prediction-Game&p=806239#post806239

At the moment, this is just a draft.

So as not to confuse the other members until we reach a final decision, can we keep the discussion about the rules to use here in this thread for now.

I have sent Private Messages to a couple of members that are in Italy and China, to see if they can have any luck finding entry lists for their Nationals.

I'm going to bed soon (that's the drawback of me running the Game - I'm in a totally different time zone to the other organisers!). So, I will check back in first thing in the morning to see what the concensus is.

Thank you

CaroLiza_fan

 

[pitterpatter]

Personally, I think that just carrying over the same rules from the GP Game would be the best course of action for everybody.

So, predict a top 6, and score the top 5.

I don't like the idea of excluding disciplines with low entries when we are including other disciplines from the same event. It would not be fair if Pairs and Dance were only counting towards the scores in a few of the events. it would get to the stage that these disciplines would be meaningless towards the overall results, which would be a shame.

On the other hand, it would not be fair if players were raking up points by predicting results in disciplines with only 2 entries! So, maybe there should be a cut-off point.

But, if we were to provide a cut-off point, I think it should be 6. After all, it would be hypocritical to saw "exclude disciplines with fewer than 8 entries" when the GP Final had only 6 slots in all 4 disciplines!

My own opinion is that it would be the lesser of two evils to include them. But, I'll go with what the majority of the organisers think.

So, please express your opinion below

CaroLiza_fan

I strongly think that including disciplines with less than 5 entries, when we're going to be keeping the rules from the game, would skew the results anyway so we should leave them out. For example, if Pairs and Ice Dance at Japanese Nationals only has 3 entries each, but we're doing top 5 for Ladies and Men, there's no way we can make the disciplines worth the same amount, unless we do some complicated weighted formula or only score up to the lowest number of entries.

Also, if there are only 2 or 3 entries in an event, chances are everyone's predictions are going to be similar anyway so it would be meaningless to count them towards the scores. (ie - there isn't much value in predicting Reed/Reed for first place in Ice Dance). Everyone's scores relative to each other will still be valid, and we could still have overall winners in each of the disciplines.

 

[Wilhelmina]

Also, if there are only 2 or 3 entries in an event, chances are everyone's predictions are going to be similar anyway so it would be meaningless to count them towards the scores. (ie - there isn't much value in predicting Reed/Reed for first place in Ice Dance). Everyone's scores relative to each other will still be valid, and we could still have overall winners in each of the disciplines.

I agree with pitterpatter -- whether we include or exclude disciplines with fewer than 5 entries, everyone's scores relative to each other in those events/disciplines will be pretty much the same, so it doesn't make much difference.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Firstly, categories for the scorers.

I think it would be sensible for the scorers that are continuing from the GP Game to score the same categories.

So, here are the rosters:

Ladies: Li'Kitsu (with me taking over for American and Canadian Nationals)
Men: guenever (since you finished higher than FSGMT in Men's in the GP Game)
Pairs: Wilhelmina
Dance: FSGMT (since you finished top 10 in Dance in the GP Game!)

I strongly think that including disciplines with less than 5 entries, when we're going to be keeping the rules from the game, would skew the results anyway so we should leave them out. For example, if Pairs and Ice Dance at Japanese Nationals only has 3 entries each, but we're doing top 5 for Ladies and Men, there's no way we can make the disciplines worth the same amount, unless we do some complicated weighted formula or only score up to the lowest number of entries.

Also, if there are only 2 or 3 entries in an event, chances are everyone's predictions are going to be similar anyway so it would be meaningless to count them towards the scores. (ie - there isn't much value in predicting Reed/Reed for first place in Ice Dance). Everyone's scores relative to each other will still be valid, and we could still have overall winners in each of the disciplines.

I agree with pitterpatter -- whether we include or exclude disciplines with fewer than 5 entries, everyone's scores relative to each other in those events/disciplines will be pretty much the same, so it doesn't make much difference.

Very good points from both of you. If we include them, it will skew the results to towards these categories; if we don't include them, it will skew the results towards the other categories.

I've been awake a lot of the night thinking about all the pros and cons of including them, and have come up with a compromise which might work.

This is the first running of the Nationals Prediction Game, so it is natural that there is going to be some experimenting going on.

So, how about we ask the players to make predictions for ALL categories, but only include in the Game those categories with 5 or more entries.

I will then personally score these under-entered categories (to give myself a bit of practice ahead of taking over Ladies from Li'Kitsu). Then, after the Game is finished, we can add these scores in and check what difference they would have made to the overall results.

Doing it this way would then give us a better understanding of the skewing, and would help us make a better informed decision when it comes to running the Game again next season.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[pitterpatter]

I will then personally score these under-entered categories (to give myself a bit of practice ahead of taking over Ladies from Li'Kitsu). Then, after the Game is finished, we can add these scores in and check what difference they would have made to the overall results.

Doing it this way would then give us a better understanding of the skewing, and would help us make a better informed decision when it comes to running the Game again next season.

CaroLiza_fan

I think it wouldn't be fair to decide this after the game ends, because some people would have their placements affected by whether or not they're included. Also, if you enter the scores into the sheet it would automatically add it to the total, unless by personally score you mean recording the scores somewhere other than the spreadsheet.

If everyone else thinks that it would be best to include disciplines with less than 5 entries, i'm fine with that as it shouldn't make too much of a difference overall.

 

[guenever]

I think five as a cut-off makes sense, since what people are guessing is top five placements.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

I think it wouldn't be fair to decide this after the game ends, because some people would have their placements affected by whether or not they're included. Also, if you enter the scores into the sheet it would automatically add it to the total, unless by personally score you mean recording the scores somewhere other than the spreadsheet.

Oh no, I don't mean adding the scores in officially, so that they affect the results!

I just meant that they should be recorded somewhere for our own de-brief at the end of the process so that we, the organisers, can work out whether it was a good idea to exclude them or not.

And, yes, we will use 5 as the cut off. Any fewer entries, and that discipline won't count towards the Game score.

I'm going to amend the rules post now, and then create the individual event threads. I'll create a thread for Italians anyway, just in case we manage to get an entry list between now and Thursday.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[pitterpatter]

Yes, that's ok for me! I don't have any particular preference, after all scoring is scoring! Please when you have organized all this send a PM to me to explain all the details (I'm not exactly a "computer genius", too )

I just wanted to check if you received the PM I sent you a couple of days ago I need some information from you to give you editing privileges on the spreadsheet.