The OP's question itself reminds me P.J's prediction on Yuna's placement in WC 2013 => Third. Oh well, really?
The main reasons why we are having this sort of discussion : Julia is Russian. + Mao and Carolina have not been consistent with their FS. + Yuna got injured. Well, at least Yuna is coming back in her top form. Do not underestimate Yuna's competing ability. Yuna has been super consistent and almost clean in big stages (WC 09, Oly 10, WC 13), and the score difference between her and 2nd comer has been HUGE.
Back to Julia... I personally think that clean Gold should be ahead of clean Julia. Gold has very good spins too. Jump quality is incomparable. When they are both clean, PCS will be very close, even assuming the Russian inflation. And clean Yuna will be ahead of clean Gold, mainly due to PCS, rightfully so.
Yes, Julia is amazingly talented 15 yr old girl, but putting her in the same line as veterans is simply too much and delusional. Any clean performance from veterans(even Carolina's FS) will be ahead of Julia. If Mao can hit 3A even once in her FS, putting Julia ahead of Mao will draw huge backfire. You see how clean Julia was treated from the most important ISU event in past 4 month : GPF. Mao was simply trembling in FS yet she won.
And I am wondering why people are not considering SP at all here. Clean SP from Yuna, Mao (not Carolina) will be ahead of clean SP from Julia by 4,5 points at least, due to GOE(Yuna) and BV(Mao, if 3A can be ratified) and also the PCS difference. (And at this point, expecting clean SP from both of them sounds very reasonable.) That's also how Julia's clean SP has been treated for the entire season. Meaning, Julia should win FS with considerable margin to claim Gold. But it will be only possible if, veterans make at least one big mistake i.e. popping or falling + one two small mistakes(UR or step out), which I do not see happening, at least from Yuna.
Therefore I do not really see Julia as favorite for OGM at all. She can be seen as favorite for podium of course, as the best lady from Europe. OGM favorite is Yuna. Mao can challenge, depending on her 3As. Time flies, yet some things haven't changed.
The main reasons why we are having this sort of discussion : Julia is Russian. + Mao and Carolina have not been consistent with their FS. + Yuna got injured. Well, at least Yuna is coming back in her top form. Do not underestimate Yuna's competing ability. Yuna has been super consistent and almost clean in big stages (WC 09, Oly 10, WC 13), and the score difference between her and 2nd comer has been HUGE.
Back to Julia... I personally think that clean Gold should be ahead of clean Julia. Gold has very good spins too. Jump quality is incomparable. When they are both clean, PCS will be very close, even assuming the Russian inflation. And clean Yuna will be ahead of clean Gold, mainly due to PCS, rightfully so.
Yes, Julia is amazingly talented 15 yr old girl, but putting her in the same line as veterans is simply too much and delusional. Any clean performance from veterans(even Carolina's FS) will be ahead of Julia. If Mao can hit 3A even once in her FS, putting Julia ahead of Mao will draw huge backfire. You see how clean Julia was treated from the most important ISU event in past 4 month : GPF. Mao was simply trembling in FS yet she won.
And I am wondering why people are not considering SP at all here. Clean SP from Yuna, Mao (not Carolina) will be ahead of clean SP from Julia by 4,5 points at least, due to GOE(Yuna) and BV(Mao, if 3A can be ratified) and also the PCS difference. (And at this point, expecting clean SP from both of them sounds very reasonable.) That's also how Julia's clean SP has been treated for the entire season. Meaning, Julia should win FS with considerable margin to claim Gold. But it will be only possible if, veterans make at least one big mistake i.e. popping or falling + one two small mistakes(UR or step out), which I do not see happening, at least from Yuna.
Therefore I do not really see Julia as favorite for OGM at all. She can be seen as favorite for podium of course, as the best lady from Europe. OGM favorite is Yuna. Mao can challenge, depending on her 3As. Time flies, yet some things haven't changed.