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- Dec 25, 2012
I guess one could say, in any competition with a low TES average, Jason is going to have the advantage.
In any competition with a high TES average, it will be difficult for Jason to get on the podium.
State of the U.S. Men's Figure Skating for 2014-15
- Thread starter Mrs. P
- Start date
I guess one could say, in any competition with a low TES average, Jason is going to have the advantage.
In any competition with a high TES average, it will be difficult for Jason to get on the podium.
Exactly. Had Brezina did all his jumps (4T instead of 3T, 3Lo instead of 2Lo and 3S instead of 2S at the end of the combo) he would have won and by quite the clip, even if his program is empty and garners low PCS.
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- Dec 25, 2012
It must be difficult for Jason to do his programs very well, and yet know that he's still depending on his rivals to make mistakes. It reminds me of Kyla Ross, (just became the Women's AA gymnastic Bronze medalist today) the whole time, the commentators were saying how clean her elements were, but that she didn't have enough technical difficulty to really go for the medals. But, surprise, surprise, there were two falls at the last apparatus and she got in with a bronze.
It must be difficult for Jason to do his programs very well, and yet know that he's still depending on his rivals to make mistakes. It reminds me of Kyla Ross, (just became the Women's AA gymnastic Bronze medalist today) the whole time, the commentators were saying how clean her elements were, but that she didn't have enough technical difficulty to really go for the medals. But, surprise, surprise, there were two falls at the last apparatus and she got in with a bronze.
I think there's an end game, and that's the 2018 Olympics (and Jason has indicated that he wants to go to 2022 if he's still healthy). Jason and Kori have always rode on a long-term strategy. So whether he had a quad for this competition or even this season, won't matter much in a few years.
Sure if he wins medals or a few competitions, it doesn't hurt. Like wise winning silver at U.S. Nationals and making the Olympic team was more of a bonus to Jason than an expectation.
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- Jul 9, 2014
:agree: Exactly ! Kori is great for Jason and she clearly has his best interests in mind. From what I can tell, she has guided Jason very well. I have no doubt that she has heard all about Jason's "Lack" of tech skills. However, she doesn't pressure him which allows him the freedom to perform what he's capable of doing without pressure.
I'm sure Jason has heard it from other skaters and their coaches. " I can't believe he beat me without a quad ! " As well a couple of other rude statements about his style of skating.
Statements like that can get under your skin unless you have a great coach like Kori. I don't hear Jason or Kori saying things like " Jason doesn't need a quad to win " I think they both know that he needs a quad to be World Champion.
I'm sure Jason has heard it from other skaters and their coaches. " I can't believe he beat me without a quad ! " As well a couple of other rude statements about his style of skating.
Statements like that can get under your skin unless you have a great coach like Kori. I don't hear Jason or Kori saying things like " Jason doesn't need a quad to win " I think they both know that he needs a quad to be World Champion.
He needs quadS if anyone wants to think about world champion in current field. I understand long term goal but it's very likely that in 2018 one type of quad or even two types may not be enough. It is likely that Hanyu will soon bring quad loop to competition if he stays healthy ( I bet it may be already on 2015/16 or 16/17 ) But of course it is only assumptions
I think Jason and Kori are well aware of what is necessary to compete. However, there's no use of obsessing what others have. Competition is also a mind game and there's no better way to wreak that mind game than to wring your hands over others.
I disagree. Denis Ten is very much competitive with a one-quad LP. In any given competition, you can expect quite a few multi-quad guys to make mistakes. One quad is enough (and one type of quad is definitely enough), if you actually perform your program semi-cleanly.
Believe me, I really want Hanyu to bring 4Lo. But at the same time, I recognize that maybe it'll never happen. Plenty of people have landed quads that they ultimately never brought to competition (Dai, Plushy, Gachinski, Joubert, Rippon, ect.)
Jason shouldn't psyche himself out by thinking, "Oh, I'll need three different quads!" (Hanyu can think like that, since he likes 'em quads and it probably motivates him even if it's not true, but it's not the right mindset for Jason). By that logic, Patrick Chan should just go retire already, since he's only got one type of quad and is unlikely to learn any more at 23.
It depends, Denis Ten is competitive with one quad but only in contention for like bronze right now and also this depends on quality of the skates of the field (in Saitama top3 were out of anyone reach for example) , and still he usually does two good 3A's
I may over rated but still I think that to fight for the gold in 2018 two types of quads will likely be "must have"
It depends, Denis Ten is competitive with one quad but only in contention for like bronze right now and also this depends on quality of the skates of the field (in Saitama top3 were out of anyone reach for example) , and still he usually does two good 3A's
I may over rated but still I think that to fight for the gold in 2018 two types of quads will likely be "must have"
I'd rather have one quad and a cohesive program with everything else-- than two quads and a complete mess of a program. That's just my viewpoint.
I think mastery of ONE quad, yet alone two is tough for any skater. And by mastery I don't mean you can do just the quad. But rather the quad is a jump you can do along with the rest of your elements. It's not a jumping contest, so mastery in this context is important.
Patrick's one-quad FS when done to its best (see TEB) looks just as great as when Hanyu does two quad FS cleanly (which has yet to happen).
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- Jun 21, 2003
This is what I think the future will bring. Sooner or later the ISU will come up with a way accurately to measure the amount of rotation that skaters get on their jumps. When this happens, if will become evident that the great majority of quads aren't really quads at all. Then skaters will go back to trying to rotate their triples.
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- Jul 31, 2014
Actually it will matter. . . and I really think that is part of why we have not seen it.
Jason has a reputation for consistency and clean programs, start tossing in quads and that could start to hurt his reputation. Jason also does seem a to have a touch of when one thing goes wrong. . . it kinda stays shaky, so while some skaters can still have a hand down quad worth it, Jason may not be one of those.
Beyond that. . . what do you think will happen to his scores when he does add in a quad? If his scores do not go up after adding a quad, there is at least an academic argument against him even doing the quad. Do you think anyone wants Jason's response to quad questions to be "When i did the quad my PCS went down, why would i keep it in?" There almost has to be an increase in scores for him when he does add the quad in.
So why would they add the quad now, during the first year of the quad when he still can at least win Senior Bs, and has a pretty decent chance to at least medal in the grand prix? Hell even not making worlds this year would not be devastating to his career long term, he can add a 4CC medal to his collection, ohh the horrors. The longer he has a reasonable chance at bronze, putting off the quad as long as possible is likely the best strategy from him. The higher he can get his scores without a quad, the higher they will be once he adds it in.
Like you said they are in it for the long game. Logically they should pump up his scores as much as they can without the quad, squeeze every point out of what he has. . . establish himself as earning that type of scores. . . then raise the anti with a quad.
Hell to be honest I wonder how much he and his team are even eying the National title let alone world gold this year. Unless your carer is on the decline, how much do you really want those titles the first year of the quad? Winning nationals this year means he would either have to defend it in 2016, 2017, and 2018 or he loses the national title and has to fight to earn it back. Skating as a former but not reigning national champ is not easy, you can easily be overlooked for the new hot young thing. My guess is a second silver would make them perfectly happy this year. I frankly think it would be a hell of a lot less stressful long term.
It seems a lot of people have this idea it has to be this year for Jason. No, that is not really the case. Frankly I think they would rather establish him as a long term competitor than a flash in the pan that strikes while the iron is hot. I really doubt anyone is going to see him as a wash up lost cause if he skates with joy at worlds but does not medal this year. Strategically, this is a good year to play it safe and consistent. Solidify his reputation nationally and internationally, get the highest personal best he can. Show a full season of "I am more than a viral celebrity" then next year take more risks. If 2016 is a rough year, it would not be the end of the world, and likely would be the best year of the quad for him to struggle. He needs to make it through this season solidly so that he does not get seen as a has been too soon (one of the down sides being the youngest US men's Olympian since the 70s). Once this season is over and solid and people respect him as more than a good Olympic year. He can afford to take more chances. 2016 can be the struggle year. 2017 can be the "Im back bitches!" year where he has become comfortable with a higher content, and can spend that season rebuilding. Then going into the 2018 he can be looking strong and consistent again, with a higher tech arsenal, a good story of struggling to over come set backs, and with a higher personal best to build on from score wise because he milked every point he could this year.
I do however think we are going to see a bit of a shift on the emphasis on scoring over the next quad. My guess is that they will start to peck messy quads more and more and reward more Jason style programs. I suspect this will lead to more skaters doing fewer quads but with more balance. I don't think that we will see a lot of three quad programs by worlds this year, I think we will see more doing two quads/quad+quad combo, and working on adding more other stuff in. I do think we are going to see skaters working to add more transitions and such to make their programs more of a total package. And in the long run that might be good for the sport. The pendulum has started to swing a bit too much into the best jumper wins side. Rather than pushing for more quads in programs, we should be pushing to see better quads flawlessly integrated into better programs. I want to see skaters worry about getting massive +GOEs on their first quad before adding a second quad basically. I want to see skaters not trying to do the most quads landed, I want to see skaters like Max Aaron and Kevin Reynolds go out there and compete to do the best quads, not the most or the hardest. I want to see skaters consistently perfecting the quad, not just landing it.
And in four years. . . we will have a crop of skaters, who knows they have to work on quads, but also transitions and putting on a good program as a whole. I don't think we see as much of a divide in skaters, I think they will be more well rounded as a whole skaters. And yes I think that will make for a good Olympics.
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2014
Can we stop the talk about quad in the thread of US men? I mean some people come here simply for their current status and conditions.
About quad I don't care that much. If you can do it, then do it it. If you don't want to, then it's perfectly alright. I like big jumps but I also like good performance and if they don't race for 4-5 quads a long just to get more injures, then I am happy enough.
About quad I don't care that much. If you can do it, then do it it. If you don't want to, then it's perfectly alright. I like big jumps but I also like good performance and if they don't race for 4-5 quads a long just to get more injures, then I am happy enough.
Great points.
Just to clarify, I guess when I say it won't matter is whether he puts in the quad RIGHT NOW. Let's say he puts in 2017. It will drive everybody crazy that he waited so damn long, but he will peak at just the right time. That's the point.
I think we are on the same page, ultimately.
Honestly I double Jason (and Kori) are thinking "Hooray, I won Nebelhorn with 4 UR in the FS." I bet the conversation is more like "What the heck, you do this FS clean in practice. Clean up those URs for Skate America!"
Actually, the trajectory you outlined was very similar the last quad cycle albeit with the 3A.
2011 - Jason delights people despite lack of 2A. Gets top 10 in Nationals, goes to Jr. Worlds
2012 - Jason starts off strong in JGP wins JGPF after top competitors falters and he's clean. But lack of 3A catches up with him at Nationals when he manages to get into in the final group after the SP but struggles in the FS and ends up 9th again at U.S. Nationals. He struggles in the SP at junior worlds but manages a clean program, to podium but can't beat either Yan Han or Joshua Farris who has stronger tech content.
2013 - Jason struggles in first GP, losses to a kid with a quad. Introduces the 3A finally at JGPF, but finishes off the podium. Struggles with the 3A at Nationals (falling in the SP and FS -- though he gets a ratified one in, but falls on another one and on the lutz) and finishes 8th while Joshua Farris wows everyone by finishing 4th. But then wins the Jr. Worlds FS with the highest Jr. men score ever by turning in a FS with all ratified 3A, but loses to Josh overall due to a mistake in his SP.
2014 - You know what happened here.
Solid debut at Nebehorn. Strong SP but weaker FS in SA, medal at GP, then peaked at Nationals to get on the Olympic team.The discussion we are having right now is the SAME EXACT ONE we had in 2012 when he lacked a 3A. See this archived thread as a reference point: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?36409-Jason-Brown-s-Future-Prospects
(And oddly enough, this was the one time that sky_fly20 was actually right...)
ETA: And I basically stated your point in this point: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...ture-Prospects&p=622461&viewfull=1#post622461
Deja vu to the max!
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At this point of his career, for Jason, having what Denis Ten has (World and Olympic medal) would be great. I wouldn't look down on Denis Ten for "only" winning silver and bronze, especially since most think the silver should've been gold, and the bronze was won with a terrible SP that he was still able to make up for with a one-quad LP.It depends, Denis Ten is competitive with one quad but only in contention for like bronze right now and also this depends on quality of the skates of the field (in Saitama top3 were out of anyone reach for example) , and still he usually does two good 3A's
I may over rated but still I think that to fight for the gold in 2018 two types of quads will likely be "must have"
Aww, I hope you're joking. That'll be so boring!
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- Feb 13, 2014
Some skaters pre-rotate a lot before lifting their bodies up I agree but if they measure accuratly then using that logic even most triples aren't triples at all. Lol
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- Aug 1, 2011
Re: Stitch Monkey and Mrs P
Multiply this:
:agree:
by a zillion (since the site won't let me, you know, actually put a zillion thumbs up).
Multiply this:
:agree:
by a zillion (since the site won't let me, you know, actually put a zillion thumbs up).
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2012
Disagree with a lot of Stitch's post, although I found it interesting.
The thing about Team Kori not eyeing the 2015 U.S. Championship is hard for me to believe. I remember Jason saying that for the longest time he himself always had his sights set on the 2018 Olympics -- without viewing himself as a likely contender for the 2014 team -- UNTIL Kori's persistent urging to "think 2014, not 2018" eventually led him to focus seriously on the possibility of Sochi.
So yes, they do take the long view ... except when they don't.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.Disagree with a lot of Stitch's post, although I found it interesting.
The thing about not Team Kori not eyeing the 2015 U.S. Championship is hard for me to believe. I remember Jason saying that for the longest time he himself always had his sights set on the 2018 Olympics -- without viewing himself as a likely contender for the 2014 team -- UNTIL Kori's persistent urging to "think 2014, not 2018," eventually led him to focus seriously on the possibility of Sochi.
So yes, they do take the long view ... except when they don't.
FWIW, Kori assertion goes way back, to 2011.: http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com...ter-brown-hopes-to-follow-lysaceks-path-.html
But even then, 2014 was seen more of a short-term goal toward the long-term goal of 2018..
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- Feb 27, 2012
Thanks for the older bkgd, Mrs. P.
Agree that 2014 was never the only goal.
Do you have any opinion as to whether a U.S. gold medal is not one of Team Kori's sooner-rather-than-later stepping-stone goals on the road to 2018??
