Jr. ladies prediction

dancindiva03 · Feb 14, 2007

iloveaxel said:
Caroline Zhang has proved she has the ability to be consistent. She's done 4 clean competitions back to back. This is unheard of. She is human, of course she would fall. Read my previous comments, I actually predicted she would fall at nationals.

Let's face it. 18-year-old is really a big number in ladies' skating, especially for a Junior. Believe me, as a Canadian, I'm not bashing them, but they are notorious for producing inconsistent skaters.
Another annoying thing is that this girl has NEVER actually hit a 3+3 in competition but you got all the Canadian fans excited about a 3+3 in practice.

18 is a really big number in ladies skating? I wonder what Irina Slutskaya (Two time Word Champion, and two-time Oly medalist, with all four of those medals coming in her in her after the age of what? 23 or 24 I think?) or Shizuka Arakawa (another one to get her World and Olympic titles in her 20s) or even maria Butyrskaya (World Champ at something like 28 or 29) would think about that. Did Fumie Suguri win any of her world medals before the age of 20? Yes, there are Kimmie's and Mao's out there landing triple axels at young teenagers, but how consistant are they now? mao still hits some really nice one's but she also fell on a lot of them this year, and Kimmie's are gorgeous in practice but just not there in competition. How many clean 3-3's were landed by last years Olympic Medalists? Was it annoying to you about how Sasha used to talk all the time about her "quad salchow" that she never landed in competition? Or how Jeff Buttle would do his quads in competiton knowing that he was going to fall on them everytime? I don't think its any different for Miriam. If she can do a 3-3 in practice, good for her, and I hope that she will someday gain the confidence to do them in competition.

Sandra_persch · Feb 15, 2007

Spun Silver said:
I kind of liked Myriane. She is the Canadian Kimmie, IMO. I find her rather stiff and not very artistic, but she is talented and looks very tough. Look forward to seeing what she can do! I don't think she'll beat out Ashley Wagner for bronze, though - at least I hope not. I love Ashley's charisma! (She was born with it....)

well she doesn't need to be Ashley. A top 10 placement will gain a second spot for canadian girls for next year!

AliasJohnDoe · Feb 15, 2007

I'd like to see Martinova do well here and possibly grab a Senior Worlds spot.

chuckm · Feb 15, 2007

Samson skated in two JGPs this season and finished 4th in each. She placed behind Cannarozzo, Suizu and Choi in Hungary, scoring 35.48 in the SP and 70.70 in the FS. She placed behind Takeda, Bulanhagui and Kozireva in Romania, scoring 34.56 and 77.80.

Samson was 5th at Canadian Nationals, behind Rochette, Leung, Hawker and Phaneuf, scoring 51.94 and 93.79. Hawker and Phaneuf scored 53.57/102.59 and 49.67/98.69 respectively at Nationals, but those two ladies then scored 41.06/97.17 (Hawker) and 42.14/77.87 (Phaneuf) at 4CC, so there was definitely a National Inflation Factor at work at Canadians.

I'm not sure how consistent OR competitive Samson is, if she couldn't beat skaters who made it to the JGPF (Cannarozzo, Suizu, Bulanhagui and Takeda) who themselves were beaten in the JGPF by Wagner and Zhang.

iloveaxel · Feb 15, 2007

chuckm said:
Samson skated in two JGPs this season and finished 4th in each. She placed behind Cannarozzo, Suizu and Choi in Hungary, scoring 35.48 in the SP and 70.70 in the FS. She placed behind Takeda, Bulanhagui and Kozireva in Romania, scoring 34.56 and 77.80.

.

Those JGP scores were pretty dismal. The inflation of Cynthia's scores were also eye-opening. I said before that Cynthia's scores at Canadian nationals were grossly inflated. She actually did better at qualifying round by landing a 3lutz(a touch down) but only scored 91 points. In the free skate, she fell on 3lutz, but suddently scored almost 8 points higher. It's really biazarre to reward her 98 points with only 3toe and 3sal left.

She certainly had some reality check at 4cc.

sussweden · Feb 18, 2007

I have to be biased and hope Jenni Vähämaa makes top 5 (she was 8th last year) and she hasn´t turned 15 yet.

/Lena

Sylvia · Feb 18, 2007

Can we please focus on the skaters who will actually BE at Junior Worlds? Thank you.

Some SP jump info...

Attempted/have rotated or landed 3Z-2R(loop) and 3F in the same short program this season:
Ashley Wagner (JGP, US Nats), Myriane Samson (Canadians Sr. SP, though 3F was not clean).

Attempted/have landed 3Z-2T and 3F in the same short program this season:
Caroline Zhang (JGP), Mirai Nagasu (US Nats), Arina Martinova (Russ. Jr. Nats? attempted both in Sr. GP).

Attempted/landed a solo 3F in the same short program this season:
Jenni Vahamaa (at Nordics with slightly negative GOE, plus 3S-2T combo), Estonia's Svetlana Issakova (JGP, with 3T-2T combo).

These are just the skaters I know about from checking this season's detailed protocols (or have read about -- i.e., Martinova reportedly skated clean at Russian Jr. Nationals but I don't know if she attempted both triple lutz and flip in her SP there).

sussweden · Feb 19, 2007

Must add Laura Lepistö too, she was 9th last year. And she´s been doing well now, 2nd at Finnish Nationals (senior) and 2nd at Nordics. She´s turing 19 though this year.

/Lena

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 19, 2007

Spun Silver said:
I've heard it said in ballet (which is highly athletic) that at 16 you have all the technique you're ever going to have - after that it's just polishing. My impression is that most think the same in skating... but an age 19 limit for juniors suggests otherwise. :scratch:

SS - Agree but I also think a ballet dancer (male or female) has to develop him/herself to be unique otherwise all Swan Lakes would be the same. It goes beyond technique and also the choreography because that's always the same.

In figure skating there is no comparisons between all the Don Qs and Carmens in the same competition. Figure Skaters have a lot to cover in an arena which dancers don't.

Joe

chuckm · Feb 26, 2007

Looking at the list of judges, it seems highly unlikely that the US will sweep the ladies, no matter how the US ladies are going in.

The Referee is Jan HOFFMANN (former E. German champion), and the Technical Controller is Alexander LAKERNIK (RUS).

Judges are from CHN, SWE, SLO, JPN, RSA, NOR, RUS (the infamous Tatiana DANILENKO), AZE (also a Russian), FIN, CZE, DEN and TUR.

That means half the judges are from former SSRs or Eastern Europe, two are from the Far East, and NONE from North America.

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 26, 2007

chuckm said:
Looking at the list of judges, it seems highly unlikely that the US will sweep the ladies, no matter how the US ladies are going in.

The Referee is Jan HOFFMANN (former E. German champion), and the Technical Controller is Alexander LAKERNIK (RUS).

Judges are from CHN, SWE, SLO, JPN, RSA, NOR, RUS (the infamous Tatiana DANILENKO), AZE (also a Russian), FIN, CZE, DEN and TUR.

That means half the judges are from former SSRs or Eastern Europe, two are from the Far East, and NONE from North America.

His explanation of Oksana over Nancy was very questionable by many. Maybe he was and still is Stasi like.

enlight78 · Feb 26, 2007

Spun Silver said:
I've heard it said in ballet (which is highly athletic) that at 16 you have all the technique you're ever going to have - after that it's just polishing. My impression is that most think the same in skating... but an age 19 limit for juniors suggests otherwise. :scratch:

I think it is odd that so many sports expect class A athletes between the ages of 16 and 20. Most people don't reach their physical prime untile they're 26. Most skaters careers are over years before that. I think that is just sad.

iloveaxel · Feb 26, 2007

chuckm said:
Looking at the list of judges, it seems highly unlikely that the US will sweep the ladies, no matter how the US ladies are going in.

The Referee is Jan HOFFMANN (former E. German champion), and the Technical Controller is Alexander LAKERNIK (RUS).

Judges are from CHN, SWE, SLO, JPN, RSA, NOR, RUS (the infamous Tatiana DANILENKO), AZE (also a Russian), FIN, CZE, DEN and TUR.

That means half the judges are from former SSRs or Eastern Europe, two are from the Far East, and NONE from North America.

I still predict an American sweep. Remember this is not ice dance, you have to do lots of jumps to score points. In this field, only the three American girls have pretty consistent difficult triples such as lutz, flip and loop. All three girls can easily nail 5 triples in the long program. No matter how determined they want to get at least one American girl off the podium, it's going to be very tough.

Jr. ladies prediction

dancindiva03

Match Penalty

Sandra_persch

AliasJohnDoe

chuckm

iloveaxel

Match Penalty

sussweden

Sylvia

sussweden

Joesitz (RIP)

chuckm

Joesitz (RIP)

enlight78

iloveaxel

Match Penalty

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