Thanks geoskate for putting up the the junior numbers. Now my comments about looking at JW and further into next season
Men
Going to Junior Worlds. Rogozine and Firus no contest. I expect Rogozine to medal and ensure Canada gets 14 slots for next year's JGP. It would be nice if Firus could get in the top 10 to ensure 3 JW spots the following year but the 14 slots IMO are more important.
Next year JGP. Firus, Morais and Davis all age out. Rogozine has 2 years left but I expect him to be on the senior GP ( the bronze medal at the JGPF guarantees him senior GP spots for next year if he is willing to take them.) Which means 100% new skaters on the circuit. Hopefully SC will use all spots ( unlike the dance spots which were wasted this year).
Ladies
Hardest to predict which 2 ladies will be sent. They are all so inconsistent. Almost no chance for 14 slots here ( too many strong countries ) . Sagaria has the most consistent loop ( jump out of steps ) but she is less consistent with the easier triples. Hopefully Charbonneau regains last year's form. Will wait until nationals before I say more here but I think that any of the top 10 on geoskate's list that made it to Canadians ( eliminating Inoda and Favot for example) will get a chance. I also take into account that the senior scores are inflated for those skaters that don't have a triple loop.
Next year: Grenier ages out. Charbonneau and Najarro will be in their last year. Won't say too much more right now.
Pairs
Our 3 pairs who made the JGPF this year are fighting for 2 spots. Basically it will be 2 of those 3 at JW. We should qualify 3 pairs for next year and keep maximum 12 JGP slots.
Next year. Our 3 JGPF bound pairs all age out next year. I think the 2 who make it to JW will have excellent chances of getting senior GP slots. The non-JGPF bound pairs that got JGP assignments this year will return.
Dance
JW: Whoever finishes in the top 2 in junior dance. Will probably be fought among the top 3 at the challenge.
JW results: Most likely a Russian sweep of the medals here. The question here is if we can somehow sneak into the top 3 countries. I say we have a chance. Orford/Williams have a higher total aggregate score ( scores of 2 JGP's added together ) than the top French team that was the first alternate for the JGPF. The key will be beating the Ukranian team that went to the JGPF. Tough but IMO, doable. Orford/Williams' score at the challenge was better that the Ukranians at the JGPF. However I will take into account that all the teams at the JGPF scored well below their PB's this year ( perhaps a tougher caller).
Next year: Carsewell/Doleman age out. All other teams can return.
Men
Going to Junior Worlds. Rogozine and Firus no contest. I expect Rogozine to medal and ensure Canada gets 14 slots for next year's JGP. It would be nice if Firus could get in the top 10 to ensure 3 JW spots the following year but the 14 slots IMO are more important.
Next year JGP. Firus, Morais and Davis all age out. Rogozine has 2 years left but I expect him to be on the senior GP ( the bronze medal at the JGPF guarantees him senior GP spots for next year if he is willing to take them.) Which means 100% new skaters on the circuit. Hopefully SC will use all spots ( unlike the dance spots which were wasted this year).
Ladies
Hardest to predict which 2 ladies will be sent. They are all so inconsistent. Almost no chance for 14 slots here ( too many strong countries ) . Sagaria has the most consistent loop ( jump out of steps ) but she is less consistent with the easier triples. Hopefully Charbonneau regains last year's form. Will wait until nationals before I say more here but I think that any of the top 10 on geoskate's list that made it to Canadians ( eliminating Inoda and Favot for example) will get a chance. I also take into account that the senior scores are inflated for those skaters that don't have a triple loop.
Next year: Grenier ages out. Charbonneau and Najarro will be in their last year. Won't say too much more right now.
Pairs
Our 3 pairs who made the JGPF this year are fighting for 2 spots. Basically it will be 2 of those 3 at JW. We should qualify 3 pairs for next year and keep maximum 12 JGP slots.
Next year. Our 3 JGPF bound pairs all age out next year. I think the 2 who make it to JW will have excellent chances of getting senior GP slots. The non-JGPF bound pairs that got JGP assignments this year will return.
Dance
JW: Whoever finishes in the top 2 in junior dance. Will probably be fought among the top 3 at the challenge.
JW results: Most likely a Russian sweep of the medals here. The question here is if we can somehow sneak into the top 3 countries. I say we have a chance. Orford/Williams have a higher total aggregate score ( scores of 2 JGP's added together ) than the top French team that was the first alternate for the JGPF. The key will be beating the Ukranian team that went to the JGPF. Tough but IMO, doable. Orford/Williams' score at the challenge was better that the Ukranians at the JGPF. However I will take into account that all the teams at the JGPF scored well below their PB's this year ( perhaps a tougher caller).
Next year: Carsewell/Doleman age out. All other teams can return.
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