2004 Grand Prix Ice Dance

This might be a little premature, since the season has just barely finished, and summer is still on the horizon, but I want to get it out. I probably also should have waited untill GP assignments are announced in the next few months, but i can't help it.
Anyway, two questions for discussion concerning Ice dancing on the GP circuit next season (2004/05).

1) Based on their competition records and progression over the last couple of seasons, do you see any of the following teams medaling on the circuit in 2004:
Wing & Lowe
Lefebvre & Markov (they can compete on the GP next season, right?)
Gregory & Petukhov
Faiella & Scali
Domnina & Shabalin
Kulikova & Novikov
Gudina & Beletski
Fraser & Lukanin
The Kerrs
Hoffmann & Elek
Any of the Japanese or Chinese teams (actually, I think the question for them is, will they get anywhere near the podium?)
Let me clarify, I'm asking which of these you think will medal, and not who you want to medal.

2) With both Romanovskaya & Grachev, and Hoffmann & Elek now past the ISU's age limit for juniors, which ice dance team or teams do you think will dominate the Junior Grand Prix next season? Matthews & Zavozin? One of the Russians, e.g. Mikhailova & Sergeev? who?

As I said, I maybe could have waited a month or so before bringing this up, but I just wanted to get started.


Andy W.

For question 1, the short answer is "no," even if Winkler/Lohse do retire and Chait/Sakhnovski get the sixth seeded/three-event position.

To reach the podium, a team would have to beat [edited to add] at least one of [end of edit] three seeded teams in any event. I think Faiella/Scali may have a shot at surpassing Dubreuil/Lauzon, if they have a CoP-friendly program, but I don't seem them getting past Chait/Sakhnovski, Delobel/Schoenfelder, or Belbin/Agosto. Domnina/Shabalin could get past both Faiella/Scali and Dubreuil/Lauzon, depending on how much overall progress they make in the coming year. I just don't see Kulikova/Novikov scoring higher than Domnina/Shabalin, even with Team Tarasova on their side, as Gorshkov/Petukhov have developed CoP-savvy programs for Denkova/Staviyski, and Domnina has a more elegant natural line than Denkova, which Gorshkov/Petukhov can exploit.

I think that Watanabe/Kido made a bit of a splash in their Free Dance this year. It could push them up a few spots from their typical 8th-10th place finish in GP events. So did the Kerrs; I can see them fighting it out for 5th-7th place, depending on the field. Hoffman/Elek had a chance to pull up at Worlds, but they suffered at least two if not three falls in their free dance -- I'm not sure what I meant by "fell out of rotational lift" -- including a real doozy that looked a bit dangerous at first. My young favorites are going to have to stay on their feet just to move up, let alone medal.

Between the inevitable injuries and a weak field, I think Dom/Shab and Fai/Sca both will have a chance to medal,

I don't see any of them medalling, but it depends a lot on who shows up at the different GP events. This depends, of course, not just on who is invited to each event, but also on who is injured and suddenly does not attend. For example, there are circumstances where I can see Domnina Shabalin medalling at Cup of Russia. And just as Jenny Kirk medalled at Skate America, a combination of inspired skating and typical home ice advantage, plus the lack of attendance of one or team teams could yield a medal or at least top 5 finish for Gregory/Petukhov. Wing/Lowe is less likely, unless Dubreuil Lauzon don't make it to Skate Canada., but if D&L don't make it to SC, W&L could make a top5 or maybe a medal. (At least I hope so!)

The Kerr's have tons of personality, from what Ihave heard, but I have have yet to see them skate. Perhaps 2006?

Finally, if Matthews Zavozin keep improving as they have, they could definitely take the Jr. Worlds Ice Dance title, but you are right, you can never rule out the top Russian ice dance team in any competition. It may help M/Z that Jr. Worlds are in Kitchener, so there should be plenty of US crowd support as well as Canadian.

And like any prediction, this is all my eye and Betty Martin, JMO.

hockeyfan228 said:

To reach the podium, a team would have to beat three seeded teams in any event.

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No, to reach the podium, i.e., third place, they only have to be judged better than everyone except two teams in the event.

If there are three seeded teams present, then a non-seeded team would need to beat ONE of them to reach the podium. But chances are some of the events will only include two seeded teams, in which case the best of the rest of the teams at that event will reach the podium and probably will be someone from ATW27's list. I would expect the first five teams listed (down to Domnina/Shabalin) would have the best chance of doing so, depending on the makeup of the field at their respective events.

gkelly said:

No, to reach the podium, i.e., third place, they only have to be judged better than everyone except two teams in the event.

If there are three seeded teams present, then a non-seeded team would need to beat ONE of them to reach the podium. But chances are some of the events will only include two seeded teams, in which case the best of the rest of the teams at that event will reach the podium and probably will be someone from ATW27's list. I would expect the first five teams listed (down to Domnina/Shabalin) would have the best chance of doing so, depending on the makeup of the field at their respective events.

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Thanks for the correction. I meant to say beat "one of" the seeded teams." I'll fix it in the original post.

The top six invitations for seeds are evenly distributed throughout all six events, three per event. There have been two reasons that the seeded teams/skaters have not competed in three events in the last couple of years: injury or choosing to do two (or not compete). The competitive history of the top six-seven teams shows that they've been skating the maximum number that they can. They could change their mind, and/or if injury decimates a field, a team that would expect to be in 4th-6th could make a podium. But if all top seeds remain healthy, I don't see any of the teams mentioned being able to surpass any of the top seven teams from this year's Worlds, as Navka/Kostomarov did in 02/03. While there might be a gap between Navka/Kostomarov and Denkova/Staviyski and the rest of the field, I think that Grushina/Goncharov, Belbin/Agosto, and Delobel/Schoenfelder, Winkler/Lohse (if they stay) and even Chait/Saknovsky will be a tougher party to crash.

If anyone can do it, it would be Faella & Scalli or Domnina & Shabalin. I see the top 4 as being pretty much impenetrable (N&K, De&St, G&G, B&A -- I think W&L will retire). The next three -- D&L, De&Sh, C&S, whilte good, could be replaced by some youngsters. Another interesting wild card is the possible return of Drobiazko & Vanagas. If they come back, I have no idea what to expect.

Ptichka said:

Another interesting wild card is the possible return of Drobiazko & Vanagas. If they come back, I have no idea what to expect.

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really they're planning to come back?where have you heard it?it would be nice to see them!

Or pehaps a Bourne & Tchernyshev team? Or maybe he will skate again with Naomi after she has the baby?