Hanyu's quad lutz prospects

rabbit1234 · Oct 2, 2017

Altie said:
Hanyu is not good at Lutz ?
Well, it's true he's had issues with the lutz in the past, but lately ? If I'm not mistaken, he's had a 100 % success ratio on his triple Lutz last season - and you don't put the jump you don't trust as your last jump in your FS layout, quite the contrary...
Plus, rumors say the quad Lutz training is going well - but I guess, we'll have to wait for Cup or Russia to gauge if the 4 Lz is going to go as smoothly as the 4Lo did last year, or not.
One thing is sure : I really wouldn't say that "the probablity that Hanyu does the 4Lz without any mistake" is low

Hanyu challenged quad lutz eight times in the practice of ISU World Team Trophy 2017.
But he never succeeded.
He just jumped Shakey quad lutz (GOEminus) only once. The other seven failed.
In autumn classic, he was failing triple lutz from practice run-through.
The probability of triple lutz 's success in his competition for the last three seasons is 55% to 63%. The probability of quad lutz should be lower.

Altie · Oct 2, 2017

rabbit1234 said:
Hanyu challenged quad lutz eight times in the practice of ISU World Team Trophy 2017.
But he never succeeded.
He just jumped Shakey quad lutz (GOEminus) only once. The other seven failed.
In autumn classic, he was failing triple lutz from practice run-through.
The probability of triple lutz 's success in his competition for the last three seasons is 55% to 63%. The probability of quad lutz should be lower.

lol.
you sound a bit like a broken record. There's no use explaining you that he's begun training seriously the 4Lz only after WTT, I suppose ? That in ACI he was injured and hadn't trained for a week, and tried a layout he was not used to ? And that if you use the last three seasons statistics for Chen or Uno you'll find even worse than Hanyu ?

It's quite impressive in a way - you've written 12 messages, and absolutely all of them were twisting numbers in order to "prove" that Yuzu had no chance. If that makes you're day better, why not ? But you may twist the numbers in any order you want, Yuzu is still number 1 and the one who holds all the world records. Maybe the 4Lz will be a problem, maybe not, but there is absolutely nothing that can tell you today if it will go in one direction or the other (and I'm a scientist, I know a bit about statistics and probability).

rabbit1234 · Oct 2, 2017

Altie said:
lol.
you sound a bit like a broken record. There's no use explaining you that he's begun training seriously the 4Lz only after WTT, I suppose ? That in ACI he was injured and hadn't trained for a week, and tried a layout he was not used to ? And that if you use the last three seasons statistics for Chen or Uno you'll find even worse than Hanyu ?

It's quite impressive in a way - you've written 12 messages, and absolutely all of them were twisting numbers in order to "prove" that Yuzu had no chance. If that makes you're day better, why not ? But you may twist the numbers in any order you want, Yuzu is still number 1 and the one who holds all the world records. Maybe the 4Lz will be a problem, maybe not, but there is absolutely nothing that can tell you today if it will go in one direction or the other (and I'm a scientist, I know a bit about statistics and probability).

Hanyu has never jumped quadlutz even in public practice in August. Despite the expectation of the media. He said that he was not planning to include quadlutz as of August. The autumn classic is not the reason for the injury. Actually, the latter 4S combo etc. are successful. He answered "why it is a difficult jump for me" on the reason why triplelutz was brought at the beginning. And, in fact, both in practice and competition failed.

Neenah16 · Oct 2, 2017

rabbit1234 said:
Hanyu has never jumped quadlutz even in public practice in August. Despite the expectation of the media. He said that he was not planning to include quadlutz as of August. The autumn classic is not the reason for the injury. Actually, the latter 4S combo etc. are successful. He answered "why it is a difficult jump for me" on the reason why triplelutz was brought at the beginning. And, in fact, both in practice and competition failed.

Source for the bolded statement please

rabbit1234 · Oct 2, 2017

Neenah16 said:
Source for the bolded statement please

https://www.nikkansports.com/sports/news/201709230000159.html

The first thing that jumped was not the quad loop that was on schedule, but triplelutz. I told you that I brought lutz at the beginning because "it's a demon（difficult jump ) for me"

rabbit1234 · Oct 2, 2017

Prior to the world championship FP, Mrs. Shirota of his team's director said to Hanyu, "I am worried the most is the lutz jump."
It would be easier for him to get 3A and so on than triplelutz.

Sydney Rose · Oct 2, 2017

rabbit1234 said:
Prior to the world championship FP, Mrs. Shirota of his team's director said to Hanyu, "I am worried the most is the lutz jump."
It would be easier for him to get 3A and so on than triplelutz.

Hanyu doesn't have the 3A? And he won all those gold medals without one? Those skating skills of his really must be top notch now to make up for a deficiency of that magnitude.

Also, someone really needs to inform Brian Orser about this since Brian has called Yuzu's triple Axel the best on the planet.

rabbit1234 · Oct 2, 2017

Sydney Rose said:
Hanyu doesn't have the 3A? And he won all those gold medals without one? Those skating skills of his really must be top notch now to make up for a deficiency of that magnitude.

Also, someone really needs to inform Brian Orser about this since Brian has called Yuzu's triple Axel the best on the planet.

The triple axel is easier for him.

Ender · Oct 2, 2017

rabbit1234 said:
https://www.nikkansports.com/sports/news/201709230000159.html

The first thing that jumped was not the quad loop that was on schedule, but triplelutz. I told you that I brought lutz at the beginning because "it's a demon（difficult jump ) for me"

Yes, Hanyu’s 3lz is so weak to the point he will replace it with a 4lz.

Li'Kitsu · Oct 2, 2017

Ender said:
Yes, Hanyu’s 3lz is so weak to the point he will replace it with a 4lz.

I absolutely love the fact that some people take Yuzus "I did 3Lz as first jump because it's my weakness" seriously. Yeah, I guess he also did a 3Lo instead of the 4Lo because his 4Lo is so bad :laugh:

4everchan · Oct 2, 2017

Ender said:
Yes, Hanyu’s 3lz is so weak to the point he will replace it with a 4lz.

The point is simply that if Yuzuru wants to keep 2 3a but add a quad he needs another quad.. he already does t,s,loop.. where is he going to go? Flip? yeah... right?

At this point it's a numbers game and Yuzuru, even if he fell on a quad lutz would earn more points than on his 3lutz... so why not?

Ender · Oct 2, 2017

4everchan said:
The point is simply that if Yuzuru wants to keep 2 3a but add a quad he needs another quad.. he already does t,s,loop.. where is he going to go? Flip? yeah... right?

At this point it's a numbers game and Yuzuru, even if he fell on a quad lutz would earn more points than on his 3lutz... so why not?

I don’t care if he will do the 4lz well or not. I think he will do 4lz because that’s what his coach says. But it’s not my issue. I am not going to jump it anyway.

I just find it’s a joke that someone genuinely believes the top of the top men intends to open his free skate with a 3lz because he said he’s weak at it. Lutz has been the jump Hanyu used to end his free skate for like 5 years now. Oh suddenly he’s so weak at it he has to move 3lz to the front. Literally some people have to get weird logic to believe that.

It’s true that skaters’ layout changes along with the season so we shouldn’t take whatever the planned layout at senior B as the final layout as they’re testing the water in most senior B anyway. Just how can someone believe that Hanyu would do 3lz as the opening jump from now on?

It’s like saying Nathan Chen will do 1 quad in SP and 2 quads in LP for the rest of the season.

HanDomi · Oct 2, 2017

What's this discussion about ?
Orser already said that first jump in fs is planned quad lutz

4everchan · Oct 2, 2017

Ender said:
I don’t care if he will do it well or not. I am sure he will do 4lz because that’s what his coach says. But it’s not my issue.

I just fond it’s a joke that someone genuinely believes the top of the top men intends to open his free skate with a 3lz because he said he’s weak at it. It has been the jump he used to end his free skate for like 5 years now. Oh suddenly he’s so weak at it he has to move 3lz to the front. Literally some people have weird logic to believe that.

well... i don't see it that way at all... (that he would open on his weakest jump)

There are two ways to increase base value and all the men are working on it...

Backloading
Adding new quads.

So whether or not Yuzuru adds the 4lutz in, having the 3lutz right now just a place holder for later, by putting in front, he is automatically backloading an extra more rewarding jumping pass.

Ender · Oct 2, 2017

4everchan said:
well... i don't see it that way at all...

There are two ways to increase base value and all the men are working on it...

Backloading
Adding new quads.

So whether or not Yuzuru adds the 4lutz in, having the 3lutz right now just a place holder for later, by putting in front, he is automatically backloading an extra more rewarding jumping pass.

Because his coach says so? Literally of course it doesn’t worth to trust that because Brian Orser doesn’t worth a penny.

Of course Hanyu is going to jump 3lz as the beginning jump just like Nathan Chen is going to do only 2 quads in the LP.

4everchan · Oct 2, 2017

HanDomi said:
What's this discussion about ?
Orser already said that first jump in fs is planned quad lutz

yeah... but until we see it happening in competition, when he is healthier and perhaps steadier with it, we will see a 3ltz and that also gives a BV advantage by putting in first compared to last in the program. That's all we are discussing... :rolleye:

4everchan · Oct 2, 2017

Ender said:
Because his coach says so? Literally of course it doesn’t worth to trust that because Brian Orser doesn’t worth a penny.

Of course Hanyu is going to jump 3lz as the beginning jump just like Nathan Chen is going to do only 2 quads in the LP.

not talking about orser here at all... as far as I know, Brian Orser can say whatever he wants

he is not the one on the ice doing a quad lutz

joking aside, I clarified what I meant... i noticed my first sentence was unclear and edited it

Ender · Oct 2, 2017

4everchan said:
yeah... but until we see it happening in competition, when he is healthier and perhaps steadier with it, we will see a 3ltz and that also gives a BV advantage by putting in first compared to last in the program. That's all we are discussing...

So your logic is that, Hanyu ditches his usual layout 2 quads 3F // quads and combos in the second half.
To go for a layout he is unusual with as it opened by a 3lz because he isn’t healthy enough.
Dude... this is confusing I think Orser’s team is so brilliant to sabotage their own skater by letting him doing something like that.

4everchan · Oct 2, 2017

Ender said:
So your logic is that, Hanyu ditches his usual layout 2 quads 3F // quads and combos in the second half.
To go for a layout he is unusual with as it opened by a 3lz because he isn’t healthy enough.
Dude... this is confusing I think Orser’s team is so brilliant to sabotage their own skater by letting him doing something like that.

Not what i said...

3lutz is a place holder.

He will most likely replace it by a 4lutz... that's their plan... but then... what if the 4lutz is so demanding that other jumping passes failed and it's not worth it??? We don't know because he has never done it...

So, he still has the option of keeping the 3lutz there, increasing the base value slightly with backloading one more quad.

So in the end, 4lutz or not, this layout is worth a bit more... and of course, if the 4lutz proves successful, he will be already used to the new layout and the backloading.

Yuzuru here is dealing with two things regarding layouts :
1)Seimei's winning layout is no longer available Only 3 quads, no 4 loop, no 4t-1lo-35 combo)
2) HnL's comfortable layout is no longer available as it needs to be adapted to Seimei 2.0

So for sure, the old layouts are gone... having the 3lutz first gives him the options I have mentioned, whether or not he ends up replacing it by a 4lutz later in the season when fitter.

chillgil · Oct 2, 2017

4everchan said:
Not what i said...

3lutz is a place holder.

He will most likely replace it by a 4lutz... that's their plan... but then... what if the 4lutz is so demanding that other jumping passes failed and it's not worth it??? We don't know because he has never done it...

So, he still has the option of keeping the 3lutz there, increasing the base value slightly with backloading one more quad.

So in the end, 4lutz or not, this layout is worth a bit more... and of course, if the 4lutz proves successful, he will be already used to the new layout and the backloading.

Yuzuru here is dealing with two things regarding layouts :
1)Seimei's winning layout is no longer available Only 3 quads, no 4 loop, no 4t-1lo-35 combo)
2) HnL's comfortable layout is no longer available as it needs to be adapted to Seimei 2.0

So for sure, the old layouts are gone... having the 3lutz first gives him the options I have mentioned, whether or not he ends up replacing it by a 4lutz later in the season when fitter.

based on his own words i highly doubt yuzu would start the program with anything less than a quad. i remember reading it in an interview, though where i will never remember lol but it was recent, that he admitted he really feels 'on' when the first jump is a quad and especially when he lands it. also if you look at the program as is he basically skates across the rink setting up for the first jump so i really highly highly doubt he'd put a triple there. if the 4lz ends up not being reliable for him i think he'd just go back to the layout he first announced i believe it was 4lo, 4s, 3f, 4s3t, 4t1lo3s, 3a, 3lz if im wrong please correct me?

Hanyu's quad lutz prospects

rabbit1234

Altie

rabbit1234

Neenah16

rabbit1234

rabbit1234

Sydney Rose

rabbit1234

Ender

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Li'Kitsu

4everchan

Ender

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HanDomi

4everchan

Ender

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4everchan

4everchan

Ender

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4everchan

chillgil

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