2018 Olympic Upsets

fredtx121 · Nov 4, 2017

I always find myself rooting for the underdogs during the Olympic year and 2018 is no different.
Here are my upsets that can possibly happen in each discipline.

Ladies

Zagitova beats Medvedeva

Men's

Uno or Chen beats Hanyu

Pairs

Savchenko/Massot beat Sui/Han (This one I hope doesn't happen-lol)

Dance

Papadakis/Cizeron beat Virtue /Moir

What upsets do you think will happen?

kenboy123 · Nov 4, 2017

Ladies -

NOT GONNA HAPPEN, so let's skip this one...with Osmond NOT skating great and Zagitova being in her first year...NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!...those are the only two with any shot...i'll give Zagitova about 5% chance and Osmond about 2%...and that's being charitable (the real percent with Medvedeva getting as high as she is getting are Zagitova 2%, Osmond 1%)...

Men:

Is anyone really that much of a frontrunner???... there are people out there that can beat Hanyu...unless someone like Kolyada wins or someone even less, than i don't think it will be an upset

Pairs:

Sui/Han is the frontrunner, but if Duhamel/Radford get back to their world form, then this one could be an upset

Dance:

I hope no one beats Virtue/Moir, but i think Papadakis/Cizeron are the only ones that can...other than that...it's just NOT gonna happen...

PS: cheer for the underdog all you want, it just won't happen...also: you might wanna define upset?????...is Uno or Chen (or Fernandez) beating Hanyu really an upset???...i don't think so....

TerpsichoreFS · Nov 4, 2017

fredtx121 said:
I always find myself rooting for the underdogs during the Olympic year and 2018 is no different.
Here are my upsets that can possibly happen in each discipline.

Ladies

Zagitova beats Medvedeva

Men's

Uno or Chen beats Hanyu

Pairs

Savchenko/Massot beat Sui/Han (This one I hope doesn't happen-lol)

Dance

Papadakis/Cizeron beat Virtue /Moir

What upsets do you think will happen?

Judging by Cup of China, Zagitova beating Medvedeva would not be a surprise. She plays the game even harder than Evgenia.

Truly, none of what you have listed is truly an upset.

S/M could have been champions last year (I am actually rooting for them). S/H don't have much of a cushion.

So could have Uno and Chen. I've seen your dream podium for the Olympics (Chen-Fernandez-Uno) so I know you have been around long enough to know that what you have listed is not only possible, it would not be an upset. I wonder why Uno fans and to a lesser extent Chen fans are so eager to pretend Hanyu is like THE frontrunner, apparently so above their own favorite. Reverse-jinx is not a thing guys. So, no, not an uspet for me, not for you, and not for many people either. (I would like to point I was one of the first people in the Chen defense squad and his position as the US gold medal contender is pretty clear today).

The only true upset in your list would be the ice dance I think. At this point in the season, its hard to see P/C at the same level as V/M.

asiacheetah · Nov 6, 2017

fredtx121 said:
I always find myself rooting for the underdogs during the Olympic year and 2018 is no different.
Here are my upsets that can possibly happen in each discipline.

Men's

Uno or Chen beats Hanyu

What upsets do you think will happen?

Do you really think this is considered an upset? It's not like Hanyu is completely unbeatable. Any of the top 6 men (+ Koyda apparently now) can win. I mean I would like Yuzu to skate his heart out and deliver two solid programs. I would be weeping along with the rest of the audience in the arena if that happens. If delivering two clean programs mean another Olympic Gold Medal I would be over the moon, but I'm not betting everything and kitchen sink on it.

The only real upset that would be shocking to me is ANYONE beating Medvedeva. She's been rock solid for years now and that doesn't seem to be changing. Alina's program is so bottom heavy and unbalanced that I really hope she doesn't upset for the win.

da96103 · Nov 6, 2017

asiacheetah said:
Do you really think this is considered an upset? It's not like Hanyu is completely unbeatable. Any of the top 6 men (+ Koyda apparently now) can win. I mean I would like Yuzu to skate his heart out and deliver two solid programs. I would be weeping along with the rest of the audience in the arena if that happens. If delivering two clean programs mean another Olympic Gold Medal I would be over the moon, but I'm not betting everything and kitchen sink on it.

The only real upset that would be shocking to me is ANYONE beating Medvedeva. She's been rock solid for years now and that doesn't seem to be changing. Alina's program is so bottom heavy and unbalanced that I really hope she doesn't upset for the win.

I would think if anyone beats Yuzuru and gets Gold, it would be an upset, because Yuzuru is still capable of reaching his WR in FS from Worlds 2017 and he just achieved a new WR in SP at Autumn Classic 2017, both within one year from Olympics. The other men especially Nathan and Shoma are capable in beating Yuzuru at Olympics, we wouldn't be shocked but would still consider it an upset.

Yuzuru is:
1. technically on par with Nathan and Shoma
2. gets higher PCS
3. can achieve all GOE's of +2 and +3 in all the elements.

Points 2 and 3 make him the favorite.

It would only not be considered an upset if Nathan and Shoma can achieve SP and FS scores higher than the world records before the Olympics.

Barb · Nov 6, 2017

fredtx121 said:
Dance

Papadakis/Cizeron beat Virtue /Moir

upset

, I don´t think they deserve the scores that they are getting but they just got world record in China, they are hardly underdogs. An upset would be H/D winning the olympic gold medal IMO.

rabbit1234 · Nov 6, 2017

2017-2018 Season score average

310.47 Shoma UNO
284.42 Nathan CHEN
279.51 Yuzuru HANYU
266.07 Javier FERNANDEZ
261.69 Mikhail KOLYADA
260.63 Max AARON
260.51 Jason BROWN
258.54 Boyang JIN
257.14 Han YAN
253.34 Vincent ZHOU
250.76 Misha GE
250.26 Moris KVITELASHVILI
249.88 Adam RIPPON
245.70 Patrick CHAN
242.34 Jorik HENDRICKX
241.83 Nam NGUYEN
231.87 Alexander SAMARIN

BV average(SP+FP)
153.65 Shoma UNO
147.29 Vincent ZHOU
143.82 Boyang JIN
137.34 Nathan CHEN
135.23 Max AARON
131.45 Moris KVITELASHVILI
128.89 Mikhail KOLYADA
128.53 Nam NGUYEN
123.20 Yuzuru HANYU
116.91 Han YAN
116.67 Adam RIPPON
116.58 Alexander SAMARIN
113.05 Javier FERNANDEZ
112.21 Misha GE
110.31 Jason BROWN
107.44 Jorik HENDRICKX
99.51 Patrick CHAN

TES average(SP+FP)

172.74 Shoma UNO
152.53 Nathan CHEN
143.31 Vincent ZHOU
142.32 Boyang JIN
142.21 Max AARON
141.08 Yuzuru HANYU
137.01 Mikhail KOLYADA
135.61 Moris KVITELASHVILI
131.25 Nam NGUYEN
130.96 Han YAN
129.15 Javier FERNANDEZ
125.46 Misha GE
125.37 Jason BROWN
123.79 Adam RIPPON
121.29 Jorik HENDRICKX
119.05 Alexander SAMARIN
109.42 Patrick CHAN

PCS average(SP+FP)

139.52 Yuzuru HANYU
137.73 Shoma UNO
137.42 Javier FERNANDEZ
137.28 Patrick CHAN
136.14 Jason BROWN
131.89 Nathan CHEN
127.68 Mikhail KOLYADA
127.09 Adam RIPPON
126.68 Han YAN
125.30 Misha GE
121.05 Jorik HENDRICKX
118.42 Max AARON
118.23 Boyang JIN
115.65 Moris KVITELASHVILI
114.32 Alexander SAMARIN
112.08 Nam NGUYEN
111.53 Vincent ZHOU

hanyu is lacking in stability, and BV and TES can not stably achieve high scores.
There will be opportunities for everyone in the top competitors.

rabbit1234 · Nov 6, 2017

ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2016
293.90 Yuzuru HANYU
282.85 Nathan CHEN
282.51 Shoma UNO

TES(SP+FP)
158.75 Nathan CHEN
155.19 Yuzuru HANYU
149.13 Shoma UNO

ISU Four Continents Championships 2017
307.46 Nathan CHEN
303.71 Yuzuru HANYU
288.05 Shoma UNO

TES(SP+FP)
175.06 Nathan CHEN
162.44 Yuzuru HANYU
154.76 Shoma UNO

ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2017
321.59 Yuzuru HANYU
319.31 Shoma UNO
303.58 Boyang JIN

TES(SP+FP)
179.19 Shoma UNO
178.16 Yuzuru HANYU
176.59 Boyang JIN

ISU World Team Trophy 2017
302.02 Shoma UNO
284.52 Nathan CHEN
284.00 Yuzuru HANYU

TES(SP+FP)
163.50 Shoma UNO
159.05 Nathan CHEN
149.69 Mikhail KOLYADA
148.61 Boyang JIN
144.55 Yuzuru HANYU

2017 Autumn Classic International
279.07 Javier FERNANDEZ
268.24 Yuzuru HANYU
248.30 Keegan MESSING

TES(SP+FP)
141.02 Javier FERNANDEZ
133.66 Nam NGUYEN
131.37 Yuzuru HANYU

ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2017
293.79 Nathan CHEN
290.77 Yuzuru HANYU
271.06 Mikhail KOLYADA

TES(SP+FP)
162.42 Nathan CHEN
150.78 Yuzuru HANYU
142.46 Mikhail KOLYADA

There are also many competitions that hanyu can not win, even the winning competition is not top in TES.
The key will be TES.
I think that Hanyu will be able to take the top at TES at NHK.

Anyasnake · Nov 6, 2017

All these upset are actually very doable, the only one harder to believe is Medvedeva not winning.

The one upset particulary possible is Uno and/or Chen beating Hanyu. Chen beat Hanyu twice already.

I wonder if Medvedeva falls on a jump at the Olys, will judges drop her scores down by a lot though ? Because Olys... hard to explain why you win with a fall. Yes there is the short program, but the casual viewer doesn't necessarily remembers it.

Sui/Han have to have a clean Salchow, and Aljona needs to lands on one foot.

For the Dance I don't know. However, the 2 top couples can often make dumb mistakes on steps, twizzles... The one upset for me today is if Shibs or H/D doesn't get a medal (But it could change, there are 3 months left...)

alain06fr · Nov 21, 2017

fredtx121 said:
I always find myself rooting for the underdogs during the Olympic year and 2018 is no different.
Here are my upsets that can possibly happen in each discipline.

Dance

Papadakis/Cizeron beat Virtue /Moir

What upsets do you think will happen?

Are you really sure this one is an upset?

Spirals for Miles · Nov 21, 2017

Upset:
Russian sweep in ladies
okay, only the third place on the podium there could be an upset

Men:
1. Mikhail Kolyada
2. Nathan Chen
3. Shoma Uno

Pairs:
1. C/L (yes, this is a far-fetched dream)
2. S/H (to push them to win gold at 2022 in their home country)
3. T/M

Dance:
1. SHIBSIBS
2. P/C
3. V/M

anyanka · Nov 21, 2017

Upsets:

Dance:
1. P/C
2. V/M - but this is lost in an exact tie in overall score, with the FS score as the tiebreaker
3. C/L
* MIA: W/P, B/S, and no US team on podium!?

Pairs:
1. S/K - yes, they bring it
2. S/H - they vow to win in Beijing
3. J/C - the French!
* this assumes that T/M, D/R and S/M all miss it

Men:
1. Chen
2. Kolyada
3. Chan (!!!)
* missing the podium: Fernandez, Uno, Hanyu (eeek!)

Ladies:
1. Osmond
2. Medvedeva (due to her current injury not completely healing)
3. Wagner
* missing the podium: all the Japanese ladies; Alina gambling on all those jumps in the second half tiring her out in the end; Kostner and Daleman go home empty handed

Team:
1. USA (wait, what?!)
2. Canada
3. Russia (there is a splatfest somewhere unexpected)

OS · Nov 21, 2017

Being totally narcissistic, I am going to nominate: Me! I am almost certain I am going to have to :curse: at some scandalous (likely Russian judges) judging in some way from those d*mn protocols :drama:

Please don't let Alla Shekhovtsova judge the ladies, I just know what will happen to all everyone else's score. :palmf:

Although I have to say, the way they are propping Zagitova at unprecedented HISTORICAL scale with juniorish programs is saying a lot... although ISU certainly had plenty of practices already.

I think the men's might be a big surprise, there are about 6 or 7 serious contenders if they can do their bit in the quads festival. Clean Patrick can be super competitive as well and I want him to say goodbye on the podium... again will be very upset either way. On or Off. My dark horse will be Misha Ge, top 8 finish and an invite to the Gala.

For Ice Dance quite honestly... PCS wise I'd tip the scale slightly towards the French at this point, Olympics doesn't seem to treat its ex-champions very well. And being fresh and exciting does add a lot. However, it could really come down to the tech at the end for Virtue and Moir. So they better skate clean and hope the other couple makes mistakes.

Pairs... i just want to see Turandot on the podium again representing China. Little pretty Jasmin Flower rises again, the folk song of China. Sui and Han all the way baby!

Manitou · Nov 21, 2017

fredtx121 said:
Zagitova beats Medvedeva

Any scenario with Evgenia not winning would be a big upset. Today's news confirm she is only human..

Uno or Chen beats Hanyu

Highly likely. Almost expected. How about everybody failing and Kolyada winning? That would be an upset.

Savchenko/Massot beat Sui/Han (This one I hope doesn't happen-lol)

How about Tarasova/Morozov beating S/H? More likely, but still an upset.

Papadakis/Cizeron beat Virtue /Moir

Very likely and expected. For me the other way around would be an upset.

Anyasnake · Nov 21, 2017

Real upsets :

Men : Chan wins gold because the event is total mess and he isn't (...somehow plausible haha)

Ladies : Sotskova or Higuchi wins gold. (Anything else than Medvedeva and maaaaybe Zagitova winning is a total upset).

Pairs : James/Cipres wins. At this point : D/R, T/M, S/H, S/M, S/K all have the possibility to win, the latter being so inconsistent yet seems to be on the road to redemption.

Ice Dance : Anyone else than P/C, V/M, Shibs or H/D ends up on the podium. This teams seems to me that they are in a lock for top-4, with top 2 and team 3 and 4.

Cherry blossom · Nov 22, 2017

alain06fr said:
Are you really sure this one is an upset?

Err...yes. P/C have been super overscored especially in their sd this season and last season

alain06fr · Dec 9, 2017

fredtx121 said:
Here are my upsets that can possibly happen in each discipline.

Dance

Papadakis/Cizeron beat Virtue /Moir

What upsets do you think will happen?

The Grand-Prix season demonstrated this one is not an upset and I am not talking only about what happened at the Grand-Prix Final where P/C beat V/M twice (SD + FD). Looking to the scores at the various Grand-Prix gave already an indication.

Now P/C are the first who broke the 200pts threshold, and they broke it 3 times (China 200+, France 201+ and GPF 202+)
They broke the overall WR 3 times within 5 weeks!
They also broke 2 times the 120+ threshold for the FD with 2 WRs within 3 weeks...

Whatever happens in South Korea, P/C beating V/M is not an upset, that's for sure.

Ares · Dec 9, 2017

Shibutanis playing spoiler & winning Gold at the Olympic Games.

draqq · Dec 9, 2017

1) Hubbell/Donohue winning bronze at the Olympics.

2) James / Cipres winning bronze at the Olympics.

3) Carolina Kostner getting on the podium after nailing the 3Lz.

4) Patrick Chan winning gold by doing 4T and 4S in the short and long without under-rotating any jump.

treeloving · Dec 9, 2017

The top six men + Mikael given his recently rising pcs) would not be surprise at all.

For ladies the real upset is not Zagitova or Osmond but Kostner.

For dance and pair either of the top two winning would not be an upset for me.

2018 Olympic Upsets

fredtx121

kenboy123

TerpsichoreFS

Marin Honda's skating skills

asiacheetah

da96103

Barb

rabbit1234

rabbit1234

Anyasnake

alain06fr

Spirals for Miles

Anna Shcherbakova is my World Champion

anyanka

OS

Sedated by Modonium

Manitou

Anyasnake

Cherry blossom

Match Penalty

alain06fr

Ares

draqq

FigureSkatingPhenom

treeloving

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