Who's making GPF 2021

[Mista Ekko]

This season most of the races seem pretty much set before the last GP,
So there isn't much excitement at this point, But here they are:

Women -

Projected 6:
Kamila Valieva
Anna Shcherbakova
Kaori Sakamoto
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Maiia Khromykh
Alena Kostornaia

Possible spoiler:
Loena Hendrickx

So Schcherbakova and Sakamoto are in, Valieva is a virtual lock,
Kostornaia with 2nd and a 3rd place finishes is very likely in already,
and Tuk and Khrom having 2nd places will likely finish top 4
The only way this isn't the GPF six is if Hendrickx manages to finish 2nd,
And then whoever of those Russians is 4th here will be out.


Ice Dance -

Projected 6:
Papadakis/Cizeron
Sinitsina/Katsalopov
Hubbell/Donohue
Gilles/Poirier
Chock/Bates
Guignard/Fabbri

Possible Spoilers:
The Canadians or Spanish could beat the Italians and take that spot
But realistically that isn't happening, Most likely this is the GPF six


Men -

Projected 6:
Yuma Kagiyama
Shoma Uno
Vincent Zhou
Nathan Chen
Mikhail Kolyada
Jason Brown

Possible Spoiler:
Evgeni Semenenko

Top 4 are locked, Realistically the remaining 2 spots would go to two of Kolyada, Brown and Semenenko,
With the likelihood of Kolyada winning and Semenenko (if he manages 2nd)
going to a tie breaker with Brown over a total score, Which atm he is losing.

Both Russian men would have to have a miserable event in order for neither to make it alongside Brown.

Pairs -

Projected 6:
Mishina/Galliamov
Sui\Han
Tarasova/Morozov
Boikova/Kozlovsky
Pavliuchenko/Khodykin
Miura/Kihara

Possible Spoilers:
Artemeva/Nazarychev

This is pretty much set, But if The Italians or Canadians manage to finish ahead of P/K,
Pushing them to 3rd, They will face a tie breaker with A/N (M/K are already winning that tie so they're in),

Della Monica/Guarise also have a long shot of making it, If they manage a win here.

 

[Artemisa]

thank you

 

[lariko]

Possible Spoiler:
Evgeni Semenenko

So, last year it was, “Listen, Zhenya, no pressure, but 3 Russian men in the Olympics, is on you. Go!”

This year, it’s, “Listen Zhenya, no pressure, but 2 Russian men in the GPF, is on you. Go!”

I still dunno how from the chocolate box of Russian men, it’s always Semenenko? Well, except for when Kondratyuk went to Nebelhorn.

Honestly, I want him to win Rostelecom now just to see what’s going to happen then. Are they even ready for this eventuality?

 

[zanadude]

Pairs -

Projected 6:
Mishina/Galliamov
Sui\Han
Tarasova/Morozov
Boikova/Kozlovsky
Pavliuchenko/Khodykin
Miura/Kihara

Possible Spoilers:
Artemeva/Nazarychev

This is pretty much set, But if The Italians or Canadians manage to finish ahead of P/K,
Pushing them to 3rd, They will face a tie breaker with A/N (M/K are already winning that tie so they're in)

Why wouldn't you put the Italians in the "possible spoilers"? They control their own destiny, in that they'll bump out Miura/Kihara with a win.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

After Maia’s latest Warsaw Cu comp I’m not so sure she’s a lock for the GPF, just saying. She needs to dumb down her content and ensure a bronze and bring the firepower for the final.

Hendrickx is a very real threat to pushing her off the podium.

 

[Mista Ekko]

Why wouldn't you put the Italians in the "possible spoilers"? They control their own destiny, in that they'll bump out Miura/Kihara with a win.

Because I don't realistically see them over scoring the Russian world champions (And it's a Rostelecom),
Especially when there's a 48 point gap between them from their prior GP events

Could it theoretically happen? Sure

Theoretically Rizzo and Kvitelashvili could push Semenenko to 3rd and Kolyada to 4th
And then Sato or Rizzo might go considering placements and tie breakers

I just didn't wanna go into those resolutions
But no harm in adding that in

 

[Mista Ekko]

After Maia’s latest Warsaw Cu comp I’m not so sure she’s a lock for the GPF, just saying. She needs to dumb down her content and ensure a bronze and bring the firepower for the final.

Hendrickx is a very real threat to pushing her off the podium.

Hendrickx would have to be 2nd to push Maiia off the GP six
If she's 3rd and Maiia is 4th Maiia still wins a tie breaker

 

[zanadude]

Because I don't realistically see them over scoring the Russian world champions (And it's a Rostelecom),
Especially when there's a 48 point gap between them from their prior GP events

Could it theoretically happen? Sure

Another way to say that is "could it possibly happen". In other words, is it possible. The word that you chose for that delineation.

And it doesn't involve a weird set of tiebreakers or things out of their control. All they have to do is win their next event.

 

[Anna K.]

Talking about everything that can happen: can't Tomono go to GPF if he wins and both Russians crash out heavily? This prediction even has some credibility because both Kolyada and Semerenko have been inconsistent in the past. Tomono is of course a different level of inconsistency, but hey. It's still in his own hands, isn't it?

 

[AlexBreeze]

Talking about everything that can happen: can't Tomono go to GPF if he wins and both Russians crash out heavily?

No, Shun will still have more points

 

[nussnacker]

Thank you for this! I was wondering how things were stacking up for pairs and ID going into the last event.
I would say I don’t expect any changes to your GPF list with maybe Semenenko/Brown being the only exception. Evgeniy will skate at home afterall.

 

[Anna K.]

No, Shun will have more points

Damn, I forgot about Shun.
So, can Shun go then?
If I'm not messing it up again, Shun goes to GPF if both Russian pretenders do not finish on the podium and Rizzo doesn't win. This is not as funny as Tomono having everything in his hands but still a legitimate spoiler.
Hey, wait! This is still fun. Everything is in Rizzo's own hands!

Sounds like the last GP is going to be truly crucial for Italians.

 

[lariko]

Shun goes to GPF if both Russian pretenders do

Why did you call Kolyada and Semenenko pretenders? They are both Russian and they do skate their best as much as anyone else.

 

[rinkside_user]

Another way to say that is "could it possibly happen". In other words, is it possible. The word that you chose for that delineation.

And it doesn't involve a weird set of tiebreakers or things out of their control. All they have to do is win their next event.

But this is very unlikely, facing the current world champions and P/K. I think with possible spoilers, @Mista Ekko meant the "not super likely but possible" scenarios. I feel DM/G's chances are far worse.

 

[chuckm]

After Maia’s latest Warsaw Cu comp I’m not so sure she’s a lock for the GPF, just saying. She needs to dumb down her content and ensure a bronze and bring the firepower for the final.

Hendrickx is a very real threat to pushing her off the podium.

Khromykh already beat Hendrickx in Italy---I don't see that being reversed on Russian ice.

 

[chuckm]

Why did you call Kolyada and Semenenko pretenders? They are both Russian and they do skate their best as much as anyone else.

Kolyada has had his share of unpredictable URs, pops and falls. But all three Russian skaters have an excellent chance of making the podium since all the other skaters who received invitations to Rostelecom are a collection of once-was (Brezina, Tanaka, Kvitelashvili) and wannabes who've never made it to the top tier of figure skating.

 

[Anna K.]

Why did you call Kolyada and Semenenko pretenders? They are both Russian and they do skate their best as much as anyone else.

No disrespect, just sticking to Merriam-Webster definition "a": pretenders to GPF. I mean, they have not made it yet.
Link here: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pretender#:~:text=Definition of pretender,a false or hypocritical show

 

[lariko]

Kolyada has had his share of unpredictable URs, pops and falls.

He does, and how that makes him or Semenenko pretenders? Enough with insults toward Russian men already.

 

[lariko]

No disrespect, just sticking to Merriam-Webster definition "a": pretenders to GPF. I mean, they have not made it yet.
Link here: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pretender#:~:text=Definition of pretender,a false or hypocritical show

The word you are looking for is a contender, not pretender, because pretender is a derogatory term, meaning that the claim is unjust, i.e. you are saying that Semenenko and Kolyada are unfairly usurping someone else’s place, instead of competing on the same terms as everyone else and having a fair and equal chance to win.

 

[cto888]

Why wouldn't you put the Italians in the "possible spoilers"? They control their own destiny, in that they'll bump out Miura/Kihara with a win.

With how they skated at GPItalia it's very unlikely they'll finish over P/K or M/G. Wouldn't they have to finish second and win a tiebreak to get in? I feel like P/K are the weakest ones of the expected finalists, and only A/N come close enough to beat them. They have both points and total score against them, while the so-called "spoiler" doesn't. Personal opinion, of course and I would prefer P/K to be on the final!!