Chan v. Hanyu: 2015-16

Rissa · Sep 12, 2015

Skate Canada is going to be exceptionally interesting on the Chanyu front: Hanyu has the potential to crash and burn with his new hardcore difficult LP and Patrick's coming back from a year ling break with an uncertain 3A. Wouldn't it be a doozy if Nam took that gold medal. :laugh:

xibsuarz · Sep 12, 2015

Moria Polonius said:
Skate Canada is going to be exceptionally interesting on the Chanyu front: Hanyu has the potential to crash and burn with his new hardcore difficult LP and Patrick's coming back from a year ling break with an uncertain 3A. Wouldn't it be a doozy if Nam took that gold medal.

Everyone's prediction games would fly out the window :biggrin:

Leonardo · Sep 12, 2015

robredo40 said:
i doubt Chan would ever lose to a skater like Fernandez at a major competition like Worlds , Hanyu just got Lucky at the olympics

Fernandez is an amazing skater and he's biggest problem is, guess what, inconsistency, just like Patrick Chan. Patrick will have to work very hard to beat him. And Hanyu just got lucky at the olympics when both skaters had mistakes but Hanyu still came out on top? Well, he just got lucky at the 13-14 GPF as well? (when Chan nailed the free but still lost the free to Hanyu with a fall 193x192). That doesn't make any sense, sorry. Hanyu simply has a harder program (8 points harder), and Patrick never upgraded his jumps since 2011. PCs couldn't save him forever.

4everchan · Sep 12, 2015

fair point... but honestly laughing with someone at a comment, is not as bad as laughing at someone for their "prediction"....

dasani said:
Hmmmm.....maturity.....i was wondering what post #47 was about too?

I do agree maturity is a good quality to have though! :yay:

ETA: Geez reading some comments on this thread makes me feel like we have a very pathetic field of men to expect for this season. I am glad to say that I'm very excited for the Men's competition! Yay to Chan vs Hanyu especially! If this face-off pushes them to be better skaters at the competition, I think it's a win-win for us!

Sydney Rose · Sep 13, 2015

Hanyu has one of the best coaches in the world while Chan has a DANCER FOR A COACH.

I think this is a very important difference between the two. And given that Jenny & Dave were just visiting training sites, I'm surprised they never mentioned it.

Ice Dance · Sep 13, 2015

I think we have a terrific field of men. It's why I have a problem with hyping the discipline as a two-man event, especially when Patrick is no longer out-jumping any of these other guys and when Hanyu's clean quads at last year's Worlds totaled 0. We already know what happens when Patrick & Hanyu are the only two favorites who can get the scores. We saw it at the Olympics. I want to see a battle, like last season, where it's anyone's game if they skate well, the competition isn't over after the short program, and where the best performances win. (We can skip the whole CoC disaster, though).

Daniel1998 · Sep 13, 2015

Jumps: Hanyu
Spins: Hanyu
Skating Skills: Patrick
Choreo/Interpretation: Depends what kind of skater you like. TSL said that Patrick is gorgeous to watch, being so elegant, but Hanyu is more "grand", for lack of a better word. He's more fiery, more fierce. I'll call it a tie.
Mental Toughness: Hanyu.

So Hanyu has the edge for me. This rivalry will be REAL fun to watch though.

Ophelia · Sep 13, 2015

^Hanyu is more RAW. Chan is elegant, but it is a disciplined elegance that can leave people cold, kind of like Yuna Kim.

Idk if Hanyu is mentally strong as much as he's mentally aggressive. Hanyu is vulnerable to nerves, but he pushes through them more than Chan.

Daniel1998 · Sep 13, 2015

I'm not sure Kim left people "cold", per se. (As a Korean-Canadian I may be a wee bit biased). I think she was at her best when she played with the crowd and gave a little smile here and there. Anyway, I do think Chan is a bit harder to connect to than Hanyu. I can get really engrossed in Hanyu's programs, like I'm there with him. With Patrick, sometimes I feel a bit detached, like I'm watching a painting and not an emotional performance.

Ice Dance · Sep 13, 2015

Jumps: Fernandez
Spins: Hanyu
Skating Skills: Patrick
Choreo/Interpretation: Denis
Mental Toughness: They're all great fighters when they are chasing. None of them can defend worth a dang.

And I agree, the battle should be a blast.

4everchan · Sep 13, 2015

i agree about the painting comment… patrick is a true artist and sometimes it results in him not connecting with the audience as he is in complete communion with what he is doing on the ice… however, i do not connect at all with hanyu… the costumes, the gloves… and some of the choreographic choices in his programs make him reach out fine but it's for me, and that's just my opinion, shallow.. i don't feel a deep connection at all… i'd tend to agree with Ice Dance below that Denis has the best chore/interpretation/connection right now…

Daniel1998 said:
I'm not sure Kim left people "cold", per se. (As a Korean-Canadian I may be a wee bit biased). I think she was at her best when she played with the crowd and gave a little smile here and there. Anyway, I do think Chan is a bit harder to connect to than Hanyu. I can get really engrossed in Hanyu's programs, like I'm there with him. With Patrick, sometimes I feel a bit detached, like I'm watching a painting and not an emotional performance.

MaxSwagg · Sep 13, 2015

Ice Dance said:
Jumps: Fernandez
Spins: Hanyu
Skating Skills: Patrick
Choreo/Interpretation: Denis
Mental Toughness: They're all great fighters when they are chasing. None of them can defend worth a dang.

And I agree, the battle should be a blast.

...Jumps for Javi? I disagree. Yuzu has the most pure jump technique of the field; Yuna-esque...

I connect better to Yuzu's programs, and I agree that Patrick and Yuna have this...inward quality about their presentation. The painting analogy fits perfectly.

4everchan · Sep 13, 2015

i think that javi is more consistent… that's why…. or at least was last year's most consistent with his jumps… if you want to just talk about quality, i don't think anyone quite matches Patrick's 4T-3T… (of course is 3A is not great)

regarding the painting… it's not necessarily a bad thing to watch a masterpiece… there's a difference in the way one can get drawn into a performance. i will never forget TEB 2013 Patrick's 4 seasons… that was a masterpiece

MAXSwagg said:
...Jumps for Javi? I disagree. Yuzu has the most pure jump technique of the field; Yuna-esque...

I connect better to Yuzu's programs, and I agree that Patrick and Yuna have this...inward quality about their presentation. The painting analogy fits perfectly.

xibsuarz · Sep 13, 2015

MAXSwagg said:
...Jumps for Javi? I disagree. Yuzu has the most pure jump technique of the field; Yuna-esque...

I connect better to Yuzu's programs, and I agree that Patrick and Yuna have this...inward quality about their presentation. The painting analogy fits perfectly.

I guess it could be because there isn't a particular jump that could be called as Javi's nemesis, like for Yuzu is the 4S and for Patrick is the 3A. But he's for sure one of the most consistent in the 4S, if not the most consistent, his 4T is not bad either even if it doesn't reach the quality of Yuzu or Patrick. His triples...well that's another story :biggrin:

dasani · Sep 13, 2015

Just for fun, here are some stats from the Skate DB site for reference.
The numbers represent: jump attempt with GOE+ / total attempt, success %

	Patrick	Javi	Denis	Yuzu
4T	35/56, 62.5%	26/39, 66.7%	13/33, 39.4%	31/46, 67.4%
4S	N/A	24/44, 54.5%	N/A	5/14, 35.7%
3A	35/73, 47.9%	55/76, 72.4%	44/77, 57.1%	73/78, 93.6%
3Lz	78/98, 79.6%	28/54, 51.9%	34/59, 57.6%	54/75, 72.0%
3F	48/60, 80.0%	20/38, 52.6%	25/49, 51.0%	14/30, 46.7%
3Lo	29/34, 85.3%	25/30, 83.3%	26/29, 89.7%	24/26, 92.3%
3S	17/25, 68.0%	31/45, 68.9%	13/20, 65.0%	14/17, 82.4%
3T	55/64, 85.9%	36/59, 61.0%	31/50, 62.0%	38/47, 80.9%
2A	35/40, 87.5%	9/12, 75.0%	26/34, 76.5%	N/A

Please note though, this is definitely not meant to be the absolute stat to judge their jumps due to the following considerations:
1) Popped jumps are missing from this database. For example, Yuzu's 4S popped to 2S from 2015 Worlds was not considered as an attempted 4S jump in this data. However, under-rotated or downgraded jumps are included (basically it goes by how the element is listed on the protocol)
2) Combo jumps such as 4T-3T are counted in both the 4T & 3T attempted jumps statistics. However, the above table certainly doesn't reflect Patrick's powerful 4T-3T, or Yuzu's mega 3A combos.
3) Only the Japan National data is included in the stat, national data for other skaters are missing. This data does include competitions like Finlandia, Nebelhorn, Golden Spin, WTT, Japan Open.
4) The success rate doesn't really distinguish between falls, step-out or just not-so-perfect attempts. A jump with a -0.1 GOE will automatically be classified as unsuccessful attempt.

Given the above, I still think this data does give us a pretty good idea on who's consistent for what jumps in general. Of course, it's a whole different discussion if we want to talk about personal preference on favorite jump techniques.

And lastly, I confess I'm tempted to post all this info so I can test out the table feature. It was a fun exercise!

MaxSwagg · Sep 13, 2015

dasani said:
Just for fun, here are some stats from the Skate DB site for reference.
The numbers represent: jump attempt with GOE+ / total attempt, success %

Patrick
Javi
Denis
Yuzu
4T
35/56, 62.5%
26/39, 66.7%
13/33, 39.4%
31/46, 67.4%
4S
N/A
24/44, 54.5%
N/A
5/14, 35.7%
3A
35/73, 47.9%
55/76, 72.4%
44/77, 57.1%
73/78, 93.6%
3Lz
78/98, 79.6%
28/54, 51.9%
34/59, 57.6%
54/75, 72.0%
3F
48/60, 80.0%
20/38, 52.6%
25/49, 51.0%
14/30, 46.7%
3Lo
29/34, 85.3%
25/30, 83.3%
26/29, 89.7%
24/26, 92.3%
3S
17/25, 68.0%
31/45, 68.9%
13/20, 65.0%
14/17, 82.4%
3T
55/64, 85.9%
36/59, 61.0%
31/50, 62.0%
38/47, 80.9%
2A
35/40, 87.5%
9/12, 75.0%
26/34, 76.5%
N/A

Please note though, this is definitely not meant to be the absolute stat to judge their jumps due to the following considerations:
1) Popped jumps are missing from this database. For example, Yuzu's 4S popped to 2S from 2015 Worlds was not considered as an attempted 4S jump in this data. However, under-rotated or downgraded jumps are included (basically it goes by how the element is listed on the protocol)
2) Combo jumps such as 4T-3T are counted in both the 4T & 3T attempted jumps statistics. However, the above table certainly doesn't reflect Patrick's powerful 4T-3T, or Yuzu's mega 3A combos.
3) Only the Japan National data is included in the stat, national data for other skaters are missing. This data does include competitions like Finlandia, Nebelhorn, Golden Spin, WTT, Japan Open.
4) The success rate doesn't really distinguish between falls, step-out or just not-so-perfect attempts. A jump with a -0.1 GOE will automatically be classified as unsuccessful attempt.

Given the above, I still think this data does give us a pretty good idea on who's consistent for what jumps in general. Of course, it's a whole different discussion if we want to talk about personal preference on favorite jump techniques.

And lastly, I confess I'm tempted to post all this info so I can test out the table feature. It was a fun exercise!

Good info! I went through every ISU protocol from 2004 to present for the men to get data on number of falls, etc (that thread is on the second or third pages of this forum). Funny about Yuzu's stats; the flip is is least favorite jump by far so it makes me laugh that it's his second lowest percentage in this data. We'll never see a 4F from him. Hopefully his statement "My 4S is actually more consistent than my 4T now..." comes through in his programs this season.

The presentation thing is...well, for me, actually, my attention can be held as long as I like the music. I like Patrick's last free skate because I like that music and am "drawn into it" even though it appears he doesn't "perform", for lack of a better word, it as much as Yuzu, perhaps.

Interspectator · Sep 13, 2015

thanks for the stats! So interesting.

xibsuarz · Sep 13, 2015

MAXSwagg said:
Hopefully his statement "My 4S is actually more consistent than my 4T now..." comes through in his programs this season.

That's actually what I fear, because he's going for 3x4T and just 1x4S per competition. And if his 4S is more consistent than his 4T it could mean more space for mistakes. :hopelessness: Though that's probably just me worrying too much.
Thank you dasani for the stats! Sort of puts things regarding each jump's consistency in perspective.

dasani · Sep 13, 2015

Of course we know that at the elite level, it's not only about landing the jumps, but also the quality of the landed jumps (okay, obviously it's not just about the jumps for elite skaters, I'm speaking in the context of the jump consistency category only).

This is where one can rack up enough GOE points that is equivlant to an extra 3A (for SP) or a 4T-3T/3A-3T combo (for FS).

Based on the stats above, I've further broken down the data into GOE+0 (0 to 0.99 GOE), GOE+1 (1 to 1.99), GOE+2 (2 to 2.99), GOE 3 (the godly level!)

Table 1a: 4T GOE+ attempts

4T	GOE+0	GOE+1	GOE+2	GOE+3	Total GOE+ jumps
Patrick	1	15	18	1	35
Javi	3	16	7	0	26
Denis	2	5	6	0	13
Yuzu	3	5	18	0	26

Table 1b: 4T GOE+ % Distribution

4T	GOE+0	GOE+1	GOE+2	GOE+3	Total GOE+ jumps
Patrick	3%	43%	51%	3%	100%
Javi	12%	62%	27%	0%	100%
Denis	15%	38%	46%	0%	100%
Yuzu	12%	19%	69%	0%	100%

Table 2a: 3A GOE+ attempts

3A	GOE+0	GOE+1	GOE+2	GOE+3	Total GOE+ jumps
Patrick	5	23	7	0	35
Javi	22	26	7	0	55
Denis	8	33	3	0	44
Yuzu	7	28	28	1	64

Table 2b: 3A GOE+ % Distribution

3A	GOE+0	GOE+1	GOE+2	GOE+3	Total GOE+ jumps
Patrick	14%	66%	20%	0%	100%
Javi	40%	47%	13%	0%	100%
Denis	18%	75%	7%	0%	100%
Yuzu	11%	44%	44%	2%	100%

Table 3a: 4S GOE+ attempts

4S	GOE+0	GOE+1	GOE+2	GOE+3	Total GOE+ jumps
Javi	3	7	14	0	24
Yuzu	2	1	2	0	5

Table 3b: 4S GOE+ % Distribution

4S	GOE+0	GOE+1	GOE+2	GOE+3	Total GOE+ jumps
Javi	13%	29%	58%	0%	100%
Yuzu	40%	20%	40%	0%	100%

to Patrick's GOE+3 on 4T as well as Yuzu's GOE+3 on 3A. Although both only managed to hit it once, but I guess there is a reason why these are not handed out so easily

Javi's GOE points on his 4S are quite amazing too! :cheer2:

p.s. I've disregard the Japan National data for this GOE analysis purpose, just to be more fair as the National scores tends to be slightly inflated in comparison to the international comps.

MaxSwagg · Sep 14, 2015

xibsuarz said:
That's actually what I fear, because he's going for 3x4T and just 1x4S per competition. And if his 4S is more consistent than his 4T it could mean more space for mistakes. :hopelessness: Though that's probably just me worrying too much.
Thank you dasani for the stats! Sort of puts things regarding each jump's consistency in perspective.

I was worrying about that too. But like some have mentioned, he gets equal if not more points from the two 3A combos in the second half, and that's what can pose a threat to Patrick. He pretty much needs 3A to compete with him (and not even a 3A but a 3A-3x combo). Well, or move a quad to the second half but still.

As thanks for the additional interesting data! Yes, Patrick and Yuzu have those 4T/3As on lock!

Chan v. Hanyu: 2015-16

Rissa

xibsuarz

Leonardo

4everchan

Sydney Rose

Ice Dance

Daniel1998

Ophelia

Daniel1998

Ice Dance

4everchan

MaxSwagg

Match Penalty

4everchan

xibsuarz

dasani

MaxSwagg

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Interspectator

xibsuarz

dasani

MaxSwagg

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