2011 Challenge Predictions

[hohoho]

Hey all:

Since all sectional events are complete, it is time for the Challenge predictions.

As everyone will probably agree, at nationals, Patrick and Tessa/Scott are basically a guarantee to win it all. Pairs will be interesting with MT/M amd D/R fighting it out. Ladies is wide open with Cynthia having a disappointing GP season.

So I have compiled a list as to who has qualified for Challenge in the Senior groups and have also listed who has byes to Nationals.

Senior Men:
Patrick Chan (Bye - Nationals/SGP)
Kevin Reynolds (Bye - SGP)
Elladj Balde (Bye-SGP)
Jeremy Ten - BC
Nam Nguyen - BC
Liam Firus - BC
Dylan Archambault - BC
Jesse Smith - AB
Raymond Shultz - AB
Garrett Gosselin - SK
Jacob Cryderman - NO
Raphael Yacobi-Harris - CO
Shaquille Davis - CO
Benjamin Guthrie - EO
Maxim-Billy Fortin - QC
Dave Ferland - QC
Charles Dion - QC
Sasha Alcoloumbre - QC
Dominic Rondeau - QC
David Struthers - QC
Maxime Deschamps - QC
Benjamin Tidy - QC
Andre Rogozine - CO (Bye - SGP)
Samuel Morais - QC
Ronald Lam - BC

Senior Women:
Cynthia Phaneuf (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Myriane Samson (Bye - Nationals)
Amelie Lacoste (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Alexandra Najarro
Adriana DeSantis (Bye - SGP)
Cambria Little - BC
Rika Inoda - BC
Morgan Jmaiff - BC
Kitty Qian - BC
Kaetlyn Osmond - AB
Devon Neuls - AB
Jessica Sergeant - AB
Megan Ure - AB
Stacey Rude - SK
Brooke Ellis - SK
Kaleigh Hole - MB
Kate Charbonneau - MB
Marianne Laporte - NO
Veronique Cloutier - NO
Zoey Brown - WO
Daniela-Bella Favot - WO
Kelsey Sobkowich - WO
Anastasia Gasbarinni - WO
Christina Yan - CO
Michelle Long - CO
Eri Nishimura - CO
Rebecca Addison - CO
Alaine Chartrand - EO
Dana Zhalko-Tytarenko - EO
Alexandrine Chong - EO
Julianna Sagaria - QC
Roxanne Rheault - QC
Vanessa Grenier - QC
Sarah Jourdain - QC
Alexandra Gagnon - QC
Rachel Gendron - QC
Alexie Gelinas - QC
Izabel Valiquette - QC
Gabrielle Anne Cormier - NB
Kelsey MacNeil - NB
Jessica Dube - QC (Not sure if permitted to receive QC Sectional Bye)


Senior Pairs:
Kirsten Moore-Towers / Dylan Moscovich (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Megan Duhamel / Eric Radford (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Paige Lawrence / Rudy Swiegers (Bye - Nationals / SGP)
Natasha Purich / Raymond Shultz - AB (Bye - SGP)
Brittany Jones / Kurtis Gaskell - WO (Bye - SGP)
Andrea Tou / Andrew Penasse - CO
Julianne Seguin / Andrew Evans - QC
Noemie Arseneault / Simon-Pierre Cote - QC
Alexie Gelinas - David Struthers - QC
Taylor Steele / Robert Shultz - CO (Bye - SGP)
Jessica Dube / Sebastian Wolfe - QC (Bye - SGP)
Margaret Purdy / Michael Marinaro - CO


Senior Dance:
Tessa Virtue /Scott Moir (Bye - SGP)
Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje (Bye - Natioanls / SGP)
Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam (Bye - SGP)
Kharis Ralph / Asher Hill (Bye - SGP)
Tarrah Harvey / Keith Gagnon (Bye - SGP)
Nicole Orford / Thomas Williams - BC
Larissa Van As / Troy Shindle - BC
Olga Lioudvinevitch / Benjamin Mulder - WO
Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier - CO
Hélène Létourneau / Kevin Boczar - EO
Anoushka Ritchie-Hervieux / Philippe Masse - QC
Shanna Rene de Cotret-Laporte / Alexandre Laliber - QC
Melissande Dumas / David McKay Perry - QC
Audrey Dupont / Marcus Connolly - QC
Anne-Chloe Bissonette / Dylan Lockey - QC
Alexa Marie Arrotta / Martin Nickel - MB
Jazz Smyl Joly / Nicholas Jesionek - AB


Based on Sectional results. May have missed some due to having byes through various Sectional competition.

Added based on input from below

 

[NorthernDancers]

Tessa / Scott have a bye. They were 2nd in the World last year. They have 2 GP assignments, and will more than likely be at the GPF.

I also have:

Alexa Marie Arrotta / Martin Nickel - MB
Jazz Smyl Joly / Nicholas Jesionek - AB

Assuming Sarah Arnold / Justin Trojek (WO) are actually done skating together, that would mean 17 teams at Challenge. There are 15 spots to Nationals, for which 5 teams have a bye. That leaves 10 spots to Nationals, and 2 teams will be left behind at Challenge.

 

[nadster]

Hohoho

Thanks for the list . Just noting some corrections.

Mens:

1. Rogozine has a bye to nationals ( senior GP assignment ). Not even on your list.

2. You forgot Samuel Morais. He could and did skip the Quebec sectionals due to his Nebelhorn assignment. But he must compete at the challenge.

3. I am sure you can add Ronald Lam ( BC ) to the list. There are 6 senior BC men ( including the late withdrawal Sandhu ) . Since Nam and Firus had sectional byes due to JGP assignments, there were only 4 non-byed entries ( including Lam who did not compete at sectionals). When there are 4 or less non-byed entries in a sectional competition ( 8 in Quebec ) the competitors can choose to skip the sectional.

Ladies:

Najarro must compete at the challenge. She did not medal at the last nationals, have a senior GP assignment or make the JGPF. Najarro could use her JGP assignment to skip sectionals ( even though she did choose to compete there). But JGP assignments alone do not allow you to skip the challenge.

Pairs

1. Correct me if I'm wrong but I am pretty sure Hole/Johnson have split.

2. Natasha Purich / Raymond Shultz - AB and Brittany Jones / Kurtis Gaskell - WO both have byes to nationals as they both have senior GP assignments. Both likely to compete at challenge however.

3. Taylor STEELE / Robert SCHULTZ and Dube/Wolfe aren't listed and both had a senior GP assignment this year. So both teams too have a bye straight to nationals. There will be a draw as to skate order between these 2 teams and Purich/Schultz as to skate order of the SP at nationals since none of these teams competed senior last year but all have byes to nationals.

 

[hohoho]

Thanks Nadster and NorthernDancers

Sorry about the missing people.

Perhaps I am misinformed, but doesn't a Grand Prix Event only get you a bye past sectionals? Wouldn't you have to make the Grand Prix Final to get a bye past Challenge? Doesn't Najarro get a bye for being top 5 at Nationals last year?

 

[nadster]

Thanks Nadster and NorthernDancers

Sorry about the missing people.

Perhaps I am misinformed, but doesn't a Grand Prix Event only get you a bye past sectionals? Wouldn't you have to make the Grand Prix Final to get a bye past Challenge? Doesn't Najarro get a bye for being top 5 at Nationals last year?

It is top 3 at nationals that get a bye. Najarro did not finish in the top 3 last year, no senior GP assignment and no JGPF. Her JGP assignment allowed her to skip sectionals but she still has to do the challenge.

A senior grand prix event gets you a bye straight to nationals. There is no requirement for those who got a senior GP to make the GPF to get the nationals bye. Making the JGPF also gets you a bye to nationals.

A senior-B and/or JGP event gets you past sectionals but not the challenge.

 

[katia]

I saw the results for dance for Central Ontario. Ralph/Hill were in the sectionals and got for their free dance 72.07 and Gilles/Poirier (they also were at CO sectionals) got 90.35. I am so excited to see such results for G/P and am looking forward to seeing their dance later this year.

btw. I can't believe it, R/H got worse result in sectionals than in Skate America.

 

[vintagefigureskater]

Margaret Purdy/Michael Marinaro have a bye to Challenge due to their JGP assignment.

ETA: I believe Jessica Dube also plans to skate singles at Challenge.

 

[hohoho]

Can Jessica actually get a bye through Quebec Sectionals?

 

[nadster]

Can Jessica actually get a bye through Quebec Sectionals?

Dube has a GP assignment this week in pairs. So she could have claimed a competition conflict against the Quebec sectional that just finished a couple days ago.

BTW, usually you can use a competition conflict in one discipline to get a bye in another discipline in sectionals. However you can't do this at the challenge level.

Starting last year, Skate Canada does not allow you to use a competition conflict in one discipline to get a bye in a different discipline at the challenge . Before the change ,skaters like Dube, Paul Poirier, Vanessa Crone and Asher Hill often got byes to nationals in singles based on either JGPF or GPF commitments in dance or pairs.

 

[nadster]

BTW Adriana DeSantis does have a bye to nationals due to her senior GP assignment ( Skate Canada ).

 

[thumbyskates]

I am sure you can add Ronald Lam ( BC ) to the list. There are 6 senior BC men ( including the late withdrawal Sandhu ) . Since Nam and Firus had sectional byes due to JGP assignments, there were only 4 non-byed entries ( including Lam who did not compete at sectionals). When there are 4 or less non-byed entries in a sectional competition ( 8 in Quebec ) the competitors can choose to skip the sectional.

I'm fairly positive Lam is now skating for another country, though I can't remember which one - I believe some sort of east Asian country (a smaller one, obviously). He competed at BC Summer Skate representing Coquitlam, but I'm fairly positive he's competing elsewhere now for a different country.

 

[Mrs. P]

As an American, I've never heard of the Skate Canada Challenge. What role does it play as far as qualifying for Nationals? And how is this different from sectionals and regionals?

 

[hohoho]

Hi Mrs P.

Canada is divided into 13 sections. In each section top 4 skaters (8 in Quebec) advance to Skate Canada Challenge. All qualifiers from each section then compete to qualify for Nationals. Medal winners from previous year get a bye to nationals and Senior Grand Prix competitors also get a bye to Nationals.

The number of skaters qualifying for nationals at Challenge is calculated as:

18 National competitors = Previous year national medal winners + Senior Grand Prix Competitiors + Skate Canada Challenge Qualifier.

For example in Canada this year we have 2 medal winners from previous year (Phaneuf and Lacoste) and 1 extra Senior Grand Prix Competitor (DeSanctis) (not included in previous year medal winners). That will leave 18-2-1=15. So Top 15 from Skate Canada Challenge would qualify for Nationals

 

[NorthernDancers]

Hi Mrs P.

Canada is divided into 13 sections. In each section top 4 skaters (8 in Quebec) advance to Skate Canada Challenge. All qualifiers from each section then compete to qualify for Nationals. Medal winners from previous year get a bye to nationals and Senior Grand Prix competitors also get a bye to Nationals.

The number of skaters qualifying for nationals at Challenge is calculated as:

18 National competitors = Previous year national medal winners + Senior Grand Prix Competitiors + Skate Canada Challenge Qualifier.

For example in Canada this year we have 2 medal winners from previous year (Phaneuf and Lacoste) and 1 extra Senior Grand Prix Competitor (DeSanctis) (not included in previous year medal winners). That will leave 18-2-1=15. So Top 15 from Skate Canada Challenge would qualify for Nationals

In pairs, I believe the numbers are capped at 12 teams to Nationals. In dance, it's 15 teams. Basically 3 flights for each event at Nationals. The numbers are the same for Novice, Junior and Senior. Junior Nationals includes Novice and Junior level. Canadian Championships are only Senior level. Challenge is held at the very beginning of December. Nationals/Canadians are held the same week in January - first Junior Nationals, then Canadians. Pre-Novice (Intermediate in the US) stops at Challenge. Pre-Juvenile and Juvenile stop at Sectionals. The difference between Pre-Juvenile and Juvenile dance is that Pre-Juvenile teams only compete 2 pattern dances. Juvenile teams compete 2 pattern dances and a small free dance. The difference between Pre-Juvenile and Juvenile for Singles and Pairs (I think), is that they both only learn 1 program, but of different difficulty levels.

In the past, Challenge was divided into 2 Regions: Western Challenge and Eastern Challenge. Any section Western Ontario and Northern Ontario and west was part of Western Challenge. Any section Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario and east was part of Eastern Challenge. The top 8 from each Challenge event went to Nationals/Canadians, from Pre-Novice to Senior. The top Juvenile skater/team in each section went directly to Nationals. With the onset of the LTAD program, COP which creates more expensive competitions and requires more carefully screened tech specialists and judges, and the ever evaporating sponsorship money, combined with complaints about one Challenge competition being "easier" than the other side (meaning not always the best skaters/teams advance to Nationals/Canadians), the qualifying system was changed to what is outlined above. Junior skaters can get a bye straight to Challenge by competing in a JGP event. If the skater/team earns a spot to the JGPF, they can go directly to Nationals. For Senior, if a skater/team competes in a GP assignment or was a medalist last year, they earn a bye directly to Canadians.

 

[persimmon]

Is Samson out for the year?

 

[nadster]

Purdy / MARINARO do not have a bye to nationals. They only received JGP assignments and failed to make the JGPF. Therefore they must compete at the challenge.

Samson does not have to show up to the challenge since she finished 2nd at nationals last year. She has a bye to nationals.

 

[Mrs. P]

Thanks for the explanation, hohoho and Northern Dancers. That's quite an interesting concept -- it's almost like a mini nationals, of course sans the top teams.

And I could see the effectiveness of such a concept in the U.S., because for sure some sectionals are harder than others. By putting all the non-bye contestants together, i can see a greater likelihood that the best skaters would get to compete.

 

[hohoho]

Seeing the entry list seems to be complete, I will start some predictions (I have not included those that have bye's to Nationals)

Senior Men:
1) Jeremy Ten
2) Liam Firus
3) Maxim-Billy Fortin
4) Nam Nguyen
5) Samual Morais

Senior Women:

1) Alexandra Najarro
2) Kaetlyn Osmond
3) Vanessa Grenier
4) Devon Neuls
5) Kate Charbonneau

Senior Pairs:

1) Seguin / Evans
2) Purdy / Marinaro
3) Tou / Penasse
4) Arsenault / Cote
5) Gelinas / Struthers

Senior Dance:

1) Gilles / Poirier
2) Orford / Williams
3) Ritchie-Hervieux / Masse
4) Lioudvinevitch / Mulder
5) Arotta / Nickel

 

[travis porter]

Top five predictions for divisionals. (senior events)

Senior Men:
1)Jeremy Ten
2)Nam Nguyen
3)Liam Firus
4)Samual Morais
5)Shaquille Davis

Senior Women:
1)Kaetlyn Osmond
2)Alexandra Najarro
3)Julianna Sagaria
4)Kate Charbonneau
5)Vanessa Grenier

Senior Pairs:
1) Seguin / Evans
2) Purdy / Marinaro
3) Tou / Penasse
4) Arsenault / Cote
5) Gelinas / Struthers

Senior Dance:
1) Gilles / Poirier
2) Orford / Williams
3) Ritchie-Hervieux / Masse
4) Lioudvinevitch / Mulder
5) Arotta / Nickel

 

[nadster]

I tend to agree with travis porter's predictions except for the ladies.

I think that Charbonneau, Osmond and Najarro will be getting the medals at the challenge. These 3 are clearly a level above the others. They also will be the ones vying for the JW spot. Right now Osmond is in the best form.

BTW, Sagaria did win the Quebec sectional. However she did that by winning the free skate with no clean triples landed. Her only 2 triple attempts were both got the slight UR call. Usually she is quite consistent on the loop but none of her other triples are that reliable. The Quebec sectional by the description of the winning FS was a poorly skated event overall.

Look forward to watching the novice and junior ladies. A couple novice ladies in BC landed triple lutzes and the technical abilities of the junior ladies has also improved. Hopefully whoever we send to JW does well so that many of these ladies can be showcased on the JGP next year. It is unlikely we'll get 14 slots , but IMO 7 slots ( countries 4 - 6) is entirely doable and much better than having only 4 slots this year.