2011 Challenge Predictions

[geoskate]

My predictions for top five are based solely on season's best scores - simplistic, and probably not the most accurate, but we'll see how it works out.

Senior men:
1. Eladj Baldé - 187.78, from Quebec Summer competition
2. Liam Firus - 180.00, from JGP Brisbane
3. Jeremy Ten - 177.06, from BC sectionals
4. Nam Nguyen - 169.55, from BC sectonals (but close to JGP Romania)
5. Samuel Morais - 162.72, from Quebec Summer competition.

Senior women:
1. Kaetlyn Osmond - 146.69, from Alberta sectionals
2. Vanessa Grenier - 142.92, from Souvenir Georges-Ethier
3. Alexandra Najarro - 136.79, from COS sectionals
4. Kate Charbonneau - 128.99, from Skate Detroit (but close to JGP Poland)
5. Alaine Chartrand - 127.19, from EOS sectionals.

Senior pairs:
1. Julianna Séguin/Andrew Evans - 137.74, at Souvenir Georges-Ethier
2. Margaret Purdy/Michael Marinaro - 137.09, at Indy
3. Noemie Arseneault/Simon-Pierre Cote - 136.50, at Quebec sectionals
4. Alexie Gelinas/David Struthers - 108.41, at Quebec sectionals.
5. Andrea Tou/Matthew Penasse - new team, no score.

Senior dance:
1. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier - 150.84, from COS sectionals
2. Nicole Orford/Thomas Williams - 137.58, from BC sectionals
3. Larissa Van As/Troy Shindle - 122.74, from BC sectionals
4. Helene Letourneau/Kevin Boczar - 115.52, from Autumn Skate
5. Olga Lioudvinevitch/Benjamin Mulder - 109.37, from Isabelle Henderson.

 

[NorthernDancers]

My predictions for top five are based solely on season's best scores - simplistic, and probably not the most accurate, but we'll see how it works out.

Senior dance:
1. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier - 150.84, from COS sectionals
2. Nicole Orford/Thomas Williams - 137.58, from BC sectionals
3. Larissa Van As/Troy Shindle - 122.74, from BC sectionals
4. Helene Letourneau/Kevin Boczar - 115.52, from Autumn Skate
5. Olga Lioudvinevitch/Benjamin Mulder - 109.37, from Isabelle Henderson.

I'll go with that last assertion, given what I can only presume to be fairy-tale scores from BC. I have to think they boost those scores exactly for this sort of reaction. Didn't really work out for Harvey/Gagnon. Their scores at Nebelhorn and Skate Canada were not even in the same ballpark as what they were given at BC Summerskate.

So a dose of reality. I would really like to see the list of who is actually competing in Challenge to make any substantive prediction.

That being said, I think there will be no catching Gilles/Poirier. I'll have to have a good look at their SD before really understanding how they are developing. It's hard to tell in their FD because they do a really good job of avoiding anything too "dancey" by stacking the program with speed and cool tricks. I'm not a fan of this, but understand the reasoning behind the choice, and he is last season's Canadian champion.

Beyond that, I think there are a whole bunch of teams that could step up and win a medal if they skate clean. Orford/Williams are brand new to Senior, and perhaps the shine is off a little for not making the JGPF. They haven't had a chance to really compete the Senior programs yet outside of BC. We'll just have to see. The rest could finish in any order from 2 on down, depending on clean skates. If everyone skates clean, I would think Lioudvinevitch/Mulder will finish ahead of Letourneau/Boczar based on the quality of skating. Not sure about Van As/Shindle. Would love to see Skate Canada post the list.

 

[geoskate]

Here's a possible list of competitors in the junior men, based on section results. Corrections and/or additionals are very welcome.

Mitchell Gordon BC: BC Sectionals (1st); Bye due to JGP assignment.
Graeme Gordon BC: BC Sectionals (2nd)
Kurtis Hori BC: BC Sectionals (3rd)


Cole Vandervelden AB: Alberta Sectionals (1st)
Drew Wolfe AB: Alberta sectionals (2nd)
Daniel Kratochvil AB: Alberta Sectionals (3rd)


Garrett Gosselin Sask: Did not skate at sectionals AFAIK, but would qualify anyway because he would be the only competitor. He could also be skating senio ETA: not entered at Challenge in either Senior or junior. injured?r.


Jason Purdue NOS: NOS Sectonals (1st)
Joel Bond NOS: Not entered for NOS sectionals, but would qualify anyway as the 2nd NOS entry.


Alistair Sylvester WOS: Skated at COS sectionals as a guest; would qualify from WOS as the only entry.


Iassen Petkov COS: COS Sectionals (1st)
Alexander Zahariev COS: COS Sectionals (3rd)
Dustin Sherriff-Clayton COS: COS Sectionals (4th)
Satish Stefansson COS: COS Sectionals (5th, but 4th of COS competitors at sectionals)
ETA: Denis Margalik added. He was on the JGP list but I don't think he competed - earlier injury? It looks like he may be OK now.


Peter O'Brien EOS: Bye to Challenge due to JGP assignment, did not compete at sectionals.


Christophe Belley-Lemelin QC: Bye to Challenge due to JGP assignment.
Samuel Angers QC: Bye to Challenge due to JGP assignment ETA: but not entered at Challenge - does he have an injury now?.
Jack Kermezian QC: Quebec sectionals (1st)
Francis Boudreau-Audet QC: Quebec sectionals (2nd)
Nicolas Tondreau-Alin QC: Quebec sectionals (3rd)
Alexandre Vaugeois QC: Quebec sectionals (4th)
Nicolas Beaudoin QC: Quebec sectionals (5th)
Sebastien Arcieri QC: Quebec sectionals (6th)
Gabriel Nadeau QC: Quebec sectionals (7th)
Francis Beaulieu QC: Quebec sectionals (8th)


Jairus Godfrey PEI: NB/PEI Sectionals (1st)

 

[geoskate]

Here's a possible list of competitors in junior women. Again, corrections and/or additions are welcome.

Tianna Brammer BC: BC Sectionals (1st)
Kelsey Wiebe BC: BC Sectionals (2nd)
Desiree Schaefer BC: BC Sectionals (3rd)
Makayla Randall BC: BC Sectionals (4th)


Jane Gray AB: Alberta Sectionals (1st)
Lauren Sieffert AB: Alberta sectionals (2nd)
Alexandra Rynn AB: Alberta Sectionals (3rd)
Jillian Tomimoto AB: Alberta sectionals (4th)
ETA: Natasha Purich added - bye due to Grand Prix pairs assignment?


Shelby Stupak SK: Sask. sectionals (1st)


Deidre Russell MB: Manitoba sectonals (1st)
Stacey Woods MB: Manitoba sectionals(2nd)
Lindsay Penner MB: Manitoba sectionals (3rd)


Marika Steward NOS: NOS sectionals (1st)
Jessica Niemi NOS: NOS Sectionals (2nd)
Taylor Latimer NOS: NOS Sectionals (3rd)


Margaret Purdy WOS: WOS sectionals (1st)
Brianna Clarkson WOS: WOS sectionals (2nd)
Cassandra McDonnell WOS: WOS sectionals (3rd)
Lucia Krivankova-Smal WOS: WOS sectionals (4th)
ETA: Brittany Jones added - bye due to Grand Prix pairs assignment?


Gabrielle Daleman COS: COS Sectionals (1st)
Rachel Greben COS: COS Sectionals (2nd)
Samantha Tsui COS: COS Sectionals (3rd)
Olivia Houston COS: COS Sectionals (4th)


Elizabeth Comeau EOS: EOS Sectionals (1st)
Anna McCorriston EOS: EOS Sectionals (2nd)
Jennifer Pettern EOS: EOS Sectionals (3rd)
Carly Morishita EOS: EOS Sectionals (4th)


Roxanne Cournoyer QC: Quebec sectionals (1st)
Veronik Mallet QC: Quebec sectionals (2nd)
Julianne Seguin QC: Quebec sectionals (3rd)
Ann-Sophie Gagnon QC: Quebec sectionals (4th)
Camille Ruest QC: Quebec sectionals (5th)
Melodie Dore QC: Quebec sectionals (6th)
Marie-Eve Comtois QC: Quebec sectionals (7th)
Valerie Bergeron QC: Quebec sectionals (8th)


Kassie Costello NB: NB Sectionals (1st)
Emily-Rose Taylor NB: NB Sectionals (2nd)
Sarah Thiffault NB: NB Sectionals (3rd)


Stephanie Fagan NS: NS Sectionals (1st)

ETA: Also add Julia Mercer from Newfoundland.

 

[geoskate]

Pairs, and a pretty small group. Perhaps some are missing:

Katherine Bobak/Ian Beharry WOS sectionals (1st) , ED: bye to Canadians due to JGP Final qualification. (Thanks, NorthernDancers).

Mary Orr/Anthony Furiano WOS sectionals (2nd) ETA: not skating at Challenge, will qualify for Canadians anyway.

Shelena Rau/Phelan Simpson WOS sectionals (3rd) ETA: not skating at Challenge, will qualify for Canadians anyway

Leah Hyslop/Bob Goodwin WOS sectionals (4th) ETA: not skating at Challenge, will qualify for Canadians anyway

Krystel Dejardins/Charlie Bilodeau Quebec sectionals (1st)

Tamara Jurkiewicz/Alex Arpin Quebec sectionals (2nd)

ETA: Add Alexandra Young/Matthew Young from Newfoundland.

 

[geoskate]

Possible junior dance competitors:

Madeline Edwards/Zhao Kai Pang BC: Bye to Challenge - JGP assignment
Noa Bruser/Timothy Lum BC: Bye to Challenge - JGP assignment
Caelen Dalmer/Shane Firus BC: Bye to Challenge - JGP assignment

Courtney Royer/Steven Paslawsky AB: Did not skate at sectionals, but should be eligible for Challenge if they choose to go, since they are the only Alberta team AFAIK.

Kylie Knight and Allan Stoll WOS: Skated at Minto, but have not skated since. Are they still skating together? If so, they should be eligible for Challenge from the WOS section. ETA: Not entered at Challenge. Injured or split?

Nicole Kuzmich/Jordan Hockley COS: COS Sectionals (1st)
Rachel Kirkland/Christopher Lettner COS: COS Sectionals (2nd)

Mackenzie Bent/Garrett MacKeen EOS: Bye to Challenge - JGP assignment (but skated at sectionals)
Sarah Clarke/Steven Clarke EOS: EOS Sectionals (2nd)
Rebecca Nelles/Nicolas Lettner EOS: EOS Sectionals (3rd)

Elisabeth Paradis/Francois-Xavier Ouellette QC: Quebec sectionals (1st)
Victoria Hasegawa/Connor Hasegawa QC: Quebec sectionals (2nd); bye - JGP assignment.
Laurence Fournier-Beaudry/Yoan Breton QC: Quebec sectionals (3rd); bye - JGP assignment.
Marieve Cyr/Benjamin Brisebois QC: Quebec sectionals (4th)
Andreanne Poulin/Marc-Andre Servant QC: Quebec sectionals (5th); bye - JGP assignment.
Carolane Soucisse/Benjamin Smyth QC: Quebec sectionals (6th)
Catherine Culhane/Simon Mondor QC: Quebec sectionals (7th)
Josyane Cholette/Simon Proulx-Senecal QC: Did not skate at sectionals. Should still qualify for top 8 because of JGP byes for other competitors ETA: and they are entered at Challenge.
Abby Carswell/Simon Tanguay QC: Did not skate at sectionals. Should still qualify for top 8 because of JGP byes for other competitors
ETA: and they are entered at Challenge..

 

[from the sidelines]

That is a very small list for pairs. Also what happened to the dance team from northern Ontario that skated at thornhill. I think one of them was from Owen sound.

 

[NorthernDancers]

Pairs, and a pretty small group. Perhaps some are missing:

Katherine Bobak/Ian Beharry WOS sectionals (1st) , bye to Challenge (JGP)

Mary Orr/Anthony Furiano WOS sectionals (2nd)

Shelena Rau/Phelan Simpson WOS sectionals (3rd)

Leah Hyslop/Bob Goodwin WOS sectionals (4th)

Krystel Dejardins/Charlie Bilodeau Quebec sectionals (1st)

Tamara Jurkiewicz/Alex Arpin Quebec sectionals (2nd)

Yes, very small group. Now I did notice that the new schedule is posted today. I the Junior Pair event is very, very small. I'm guessing a bunch of these teams won't be there. Bobak/Beharry have a bye to Nationals thanks to their spot in the JGPF in Quebec City the next week. It's an expensive trip to Regina for all of these teams, so if they don't have to compete, perhaps they won't.

 

[geoskate]

Also what happened to the dance team from northern Ontario that skated at thornhill. I think one of them was from Owen sound.

Do you mean Alicia Fortin/Matt Kleffman? I wasn't sure whether or not to put them on the list, since they haven't been in any competition since Thornhill, AFAIK, although they registered for Octoberfest. If they represent NOS, they might still be eligible for Challenge even though they didn't skate at sectionals.

 

[NorthernDancers]

I think they were supposed to represent Western Ontario, since Owen Sound falls within Western section. They weren't at Sectionals, but presumably they could still show up to Challenge, since there were no Junior teams competing in the Section.

Question: does anyone know when Skate Canada normally posts the lists for Challenge? Isn't the event next week? The posted schedule changed earlier this week, but no sign of entries and start orders yet. Isn't this getting late, or am I just over-eager?

 

[hohoho]

I agree with NorthernDancers that Skate Canada is being a bit slow with the entrants list. I will make the assumption that with the schedule revision that they have a list but just have not posted. I will even go a bit further as to say that Skate Canada will not only post entries, but also the start orders.

 

[martipellow2]

Do you think Alexandra Najarro has a shot at gold? After her breakthrough at Nationals last year, I was so excited about her prospects. She can be a great jumper and is very graceful. Also, I notice in a couple of competitions this year she landed a triple flip and lutz in her short. But her long programs have been disappointing. I wonder if she's going through a rough patch after her success last year. I think maybe Kate Charbonneau has a better shot after doing well at a Junior Grand Prix.

My predictions for top five are based solely on season's best scores - simplistic, and probably not the most accurate, but we'll see how it works out.

Senior men:
1. Eladj Baldé - 187.78, from Quebec Summer competition
2. Liam Firus - 180.00, from JGP Brisbane
3. Jeremy Ten - 177.06, from BC sectionals
4. Nam Nguyen - 169.55, from BC sectonals (but close to JGP Romania)
5. Samuel Morais - 162.72, from Quebec Summer competition.

Senior women:
1. Kaetlyn Osmond - 146.69, from Alberta sectionals
2. Vanessa Grenier - 142.92, from Souvenir Georges-Ethier
3. Alexandra Najarro - 136.79, from COS sectionals
4. Kate Charbonneau - 128.99, from Skate Detroit (but close to JGP Poland)
5. Alaine Chartrand - 127.19, from EOS sectionals.

Senior pairs:
1. Julianna Séguin/Andrew Evans - 137.74, at Souvenir Georges-Ethier
2. Margaret Purdy/Michael Marinaro - 137.09, at Indy
3. Noemie Arseneault/Simon-Pierre Cote - 136.50, at Quebec sectionals
4. Alexie Gelinas/David Struthers - 108.41, at Quebec sectionals.
5. Andrea Tou/Matthew Penasse - new team, no score.

Senior dance:
1. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier - 150.84, from COS sectionals
2. Nicole Orford/Thomas Williams - 137.58, from BC sectionals
3. Larissa Van As/Troy Shindle - 122.74, from BC sectionals
4. Helene Letourneau/Kevin Boczar - 115.52, from Autumn Skate
5. Olga Lioudvinevitch/Benjamin Mulder - 109.37, from Isabelle Henderson.

 

[hohoho]

I think for the first time in a few years, the ladies category in Canada is wide open. There is no one clear dominant skater. Cynthia has been less than impressive which has meant a change in coaches. Amelie has been consistent with her scoring. And now there are 4 girls who competed on JGP last and this year (Alexandra, Vanessa, Kate, and Kaetlyn). Kate did well on the JGP, Alexandra not so well. Vanessa has been up and down. Kaetlyn has been continuing to improve her score and has the highest score for any Senior Lady this competitive season. So basically, unless something goes wrong or someone else does well, that is your final 6 at nationals and any one of them could take a medal. Could be some tough decisions to make after nationals with the naming of the World teams.

Just considering Alexandra, she does have the ability to rise to certain occasions. She won the hearts of the fans at last Canadians, but fell short at Junior Worlds. She really hasn't been as good as last Canadians since then. She could still rise to the occasion.

 

[martipellow2]

I think for the first time in a few years, the ladies category in Canada is wide open. There is no one clear dominant skater. Cynthia has been less than impressive which has meant a change in coaches. Amelie has been consistent with her scoring. And now there are 4 girls who competed on JGP last and this year (Alexandra, Vanessa, Kate, and Kaetlyn). Kate did well on the JGP, Alexandra not so well. Vanessa has been up and down. Kaetlyn has been continuing to improve her score and has the highest score for any Senior Lady this competitive season. So basically, unless something goes wrong or someone else does well, that is your final 6 at nationals and any one of them could take a medal. Could be some tough decisions to make after nationals with the naming of the World teams.

Just considering Alexandra, she does have the ability to rise to certain occasions. She won the hearts of the fans at last Canadians, but fell short at Junior Worlds. She really hasn't been as good as last Canadians since then. She could still rise to the occasion.

Thanks for your interesting comments. I still think Cynthia must be the favourite. Adriana de Sanctis could be a spoiler as well. I think Najarro is going through an awkward season as she makes her content much more difficult. This year she has two triple flips and a loop in her long program, and a lutz in her short. I think she is gutsy for trying the difficult stuff after years of mainly sticking to toes and salchows. I hope she sticks it out through the difficult times.

 

[hohoho]

Cynthia would be the favourite as defending champion. Amelie however did place ahead of her at Skate Canada International. Cynthia has some time now to get into form with Brian Orser and be ready for Nationals.

Adrianna is a skater that could be included in the top 6 list. Only reason I left her out is due to her not doing well at Skate Canada International and that both Vanessa and Kaetlyn beat her at Octoberfest.

Kudos to Alexandra for attempting a more difficult program. She is still young and will definitely be a contender. There are other skaters that are attempting the Lutz, Flip, and Loop (Grenier). Word around Alberta is that Kaetlyn is attempting 3 triples in her short. It should be an interesting competition.

Based on last years nationals and preference for Worlds, it will be a battle between Cynthia and Amelie. But will there be an upset and a new young champion crowned similar to Cynthia when she was 15. It is possible.

But for Challenge, all of these top skaters should make it to Nationals. Interesting enough, Roxanne (2011 Junior Champion) is not really mentioned as a prediction to do well here. More interesting is that she used to train with Cynthia.

 

[thumbyskates]

Start orders are up:
http://results.skatecanada.ca/2011-2012/2012CHALL.cfm?strLang=E

 

[NorthernDancers]

Thanks for this! Ok.... Junior Dance is too tough to call. There are a lot of experienced strong teams. I wonder which teams will be left behind.

Senior Dance:
It would seem all the teams are through to Nationals! By my count, we lost 3 teams over the season - Arnold/Trojek, Arrotta/Nickel, and Dupont/Connolly. All of these teams would have been top 10 by my guesstimation at Nationals. I guess that confirms the rumour that Arnold/Trojek are done as a team. But what about the other 2 teams? Are they still skating? Injured? We gained 1 team: Bissonnette/Lockey Chatham. They were at Nationals last year, but have not been seen in competition since. Interesting. Challenge is a tough first competition!

Because all these teams will go through to Nationals, I don't think they actually have to show up and skate. When I look at the geography of these teams, only 2 are actually based out West, but all the way in Vancouver. 1 team trains in Texas, and the rest all are based in Ontario and Quebec. Not to mention the fact that Regina is a pretty wintery place. Some teams may want to protect their marks from Sectionals. I'm going to guess there will not be 10 teams at Challenge in Senior Dance. That being said, if they do all show up, this is how I expect it to finish, assuming clean skates all around:

1. Gilles/Poirier - no one is going to catch them here

2., 3., and 4., in any order: Orford/Williams, Lioudvinevitch/Mulder, Van As/Shindle

5., 6., and 7., in any order: Ritchie-Hervieux/Masse, Letourneau/Boczar, Smy Joly/Jesionek

8., 9., and 10., in any order: Dumas/Mackay Perry, De Cotret-Laporte/Laliberte, Bissonnette/Lockey Chatham


Last year, there were only 9 or 10 teams in total at Nationals in Senior Dance. Nice to see there will be a full roster of 15 teams.

 

[geoskate]

Changes from the initial list (initial guess, really) for junior entries at Challenge:

1) Men
Garrett Gosselin not entered in junior (or senior).
Denis Margalik from COS added. He was on the JGP list this season but did not actually compete, unless I missed his results.
Samuel Angers from QC not entered. He had a bye due to his JGP assignment. Is he injured?

2) Women:
Natasha Purich from AB is added - bye due to Grand Prix pairs assignment?
Brittany Jones fro WOS added - bye due to Grand Prix pairs assignment?
Julia Mercer from Newfoundland added - not entered in sectionals but she is the only skater from Nfld so she qualifies.

3) Pairs
Alexandra Young/Matthew Young from Newfoundland are added to the list.
Mary Orr/Anthony Furiano WOS, Shelana Rau/Phelan Simpson WOS and Leah Hyslop/Bob Goodwin WOS are not entered at Challenge, but will qualify for Canadians anyway because of the lack of junior teams.

4) Dance
Only change from the original guess is that Kylie Knight/Allan Stoll WOS are not entered - split, retired or injured?

These changes have been entered in the earlier posts.

 

[CdnSkateWatcher]

Does anyone have any insights into why they chose Regina for Challenge? I agree that it is unfair that it has been Ontario based for quite some time - however, Regina is a very expensive venue for skaters and coaches. There are other Western/Prairie area venues that would have been more logical and cost-effective. I wonder if the withdrawals would have been less if the cost had been lower (i.e. airfare, etc).

 

[hohoho]

I believe the deal with Mississauga ran out last year and then this year they were hosting Skate Canada International Grand Prix. In order to host an event with Skate Canada, the respective groups have to submit applications. Regina may have been the only application, we don't know. And the center has to have the facility to handle these many skaters (about 500) and practice times.

Every year there are teams/skaters that do not have to compete at Challenge due to the number of entries. Withdrawn teams have occured in Mississauga over the last few years. Some go for the competition. A few years ago, Challenge was held in Moncton. Nationals will be held there in January. Weather and air travel schedule, I feel, will possibly affect that competition.

So basically it is luck of the draw. Do you go for the competition or save the cash knowing that you already qualified?