2013 US Nationals Senior Men LP

[centerpt1]

Of course, neither of Jeremy's programs survived to Nationals in their original form. Both were altered (jumps/spins)so his back could make it through them. I think the long suffered most. More of the Jumps were changed. Spins were changed after the GP, then again the day before the SP when he found out one spin would not count, and replaced it with another. Someone wrote he accidentally skated the wrong spin by mistake in a practice session before the long.

So these were not the same programs he had been practicing earlier in the season. He had a lot to think about during the program, because muscle memory wasn't going to be there.

All in all, I thought he showed a lot of mental strength to get through that long in such a high stress setting as Nationals.

Yuka picked the music for the LP. He seems to do much better to music he chooses.

He's had ongoing back issues of one sort or another for a couple years now. Just not sure that can be fixed so he can skate like he used to. His physical capabilities have a limit now. I agree that his mind game has improved...it just happened when his body is giving out. Very, very sad.

 

[karne]

Hey, I have a couple quick questions about Jason Brown. Someone mentioned earlier that his coach, Kori Ade, is moving to Colorado Springs, and that Jason will move with her. Is this confirmed? And what about Jason's choreographer, Rohene Ward? Lastly, and I'm not sure if this is okay to ask, but are Kori and Rohene a couple or just coworkers? Scott Hamilton seemed to refer to them as a couple during the NBC telecast, but I may have misinterpreted that. Just wondering. Thanks.

Yes, Kori is moving to Colorado Springs, and Jason is following her. It was confirmed in an interview Jason gave before Christmas. He'll be spending some time training at the World Arena, and he will be attending Colorado College in the fall. (He'll split his training time between the World Arena and the rink at Colorado College.)

I'm sure Rohene won't mind coming to Colorado Springs when he comes back from Europe, or Jason could go back to Chicago to visit. But Rohene was there in Colorado when Kori took her group of skaters (including Jason) there last summer, so I assume it's no biggie for him to just go wherever.

And Kori and Rohene aren't a couple. Kori is married to someone else and has two kids. In fact - I think it was 2010 when Jason was a Junior - she had her second baby just a few days before the competition. She actually asked the doctor to induce her so that she could go with Jason.

Hamilton may have been referring to them as a team working on Jason.

 

[merrywidow]

So given the outcome, I'm curious as to what people think about Max's odds to make the Sochi Olympic team next year? I assume Ross will be on the team, and if there's 3 spots, I'd say Max's chances are pretty good, but if only 2, idk. And I'm not convinced Abbott will be making that team either. It's amazing how different everything seems now from just one year ago in regards to the men.

We'll have a better idea after 4 CC's & '13 Worlds as to how Max will fare next year. I believe in him. I posted before nationals that I felt that Max, Ross & Ricky were the guys who would lead us back into contention internationally. I still at this moment believe that. I, also, believe that the next 3 or 4 years are going to be very exciting at nationals as there are another 3 or 4 men who will be able to contend for medals including the gold.
Oh, forgot to say I don't see Abbott being in the mix for the Olympic team.

 

[TontoK]

Right now, Max Aaron is basically a one-hit wonder, but there's reason to be hopeful. He just has the look of a competitor... I want to see if this performance is backed up at 4CC and Worlds.

On the Edge forum, there is a thread indicating he's shooting for five quads next year (SP and LP combined).

As I said on that thread, anyone (not just Max) who can deliver five quads, three 3A, and all the other triples would be a serious threat in any competition, even with so-so PCS. The technical mark would just be huge.

We'll see how things turn out. I'm certainly very interested in watching his journey.

 

[Eislauf]

Yuka picked the music for the LP. He seems to do much better to music he chooses.

She did? I had read somewhere that Jeremy picked the Les Mis music and Yuka signed off on it because she had always wanted one of her skaters to use it.

 

[silverlake22]

I sort of doubt Max Aaron is a one-hit wonder given the consistency and quality of his jumps, particularly the 4s. And I think if there are 3 spots on the team, Jeremy is still likely to be on the team, but if it's just 2, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't make it and the team ended up being Ross and Max or Ross and Richard. Max has made huge improvements over the past few years and there's no reason to think he won't continue to do so. I'll be curious to see who finishes higher at 4CC and Worlds between Aaron and Miner.

 

[Jammers]

Right now, Max Aaron is basically a one-hit wonder, but there's reason to be hopeful. He just has the look of a competitor... I want to see if this performance is backed up at 4CC and Worlds.

On the Edge forum, there is a thread indicating he's shooting for five quads next year (SP and LP combined).

As I said on that thread, anyone (not just Max) who can deliver five quads, three 3A, and all the other triples would be a serious threat in any competition, even with so-so PCS. The technical mark would just be huge.

We'll see how things turn out. I'm certainly very interested in watching his journey.

Why is it we can't seem to come up with a skater that can jump but also has some artistic skills too. It seems like its one or the other such as with Max or Gracie. And the skaters who do have both seem to be headcases when it comes to competing such as Jeremy. When we do have a consistent tough competitor it's someone like Rachel Flatt who just never had the talent or skills to ever be a World champion.

 

[mskater93]

Max and Gracie are both young, though, and have time to develop some artistic qualities. I thought Ross was rather boring when he made the world team two years ago, but he's grown exponentially over the last 2 years in this area.

 

[Jammers]

Max and Gracie are both young, though, and have time to develop some artistic qualities. I thought Ross was rather boring when he made the world team two years ago, but he's grown exponentially over the last 2 years in this area.

True about Ross. I was bored with him in the past but he seems to have grown in his skating in the last year of so. Max needs to leave Tom Z though because his skaters are known for lacking certain skills and having boring choreography and skating slow. All you had to do was watch Rachel Flatt or Brandon Mroz to see that. Farris and Agnes have improved a lot since they left him. Max does skate with a lot of speed though which makes me think with a different coach he could be much better.

 

[Tinymavy15]

She did? I had read somewhere that Jeremy picked the Les Mis music and Yuka signed off on it because she had always wanted one of her skaters to use it.

It definitely sounds like something he would choose. Such a beautiful program, especially the way it was originally choreographed with that triple axel/ triple axel sequence that hit the music so well.

 

[icebeauty]

It definitely sounds like something he would choose. Such a beautiful program, especially the way it was originally choreographed with that triple axel/ triple axel sequence that hit the music so well.

i believe Jeremy has stated in an interview that he picked the music and he started working on the choreography before he knew EVERYONE else also chose it...and he was pretty clear in saying that he was bummed that everyone seemed to gravitate towards it b/c of the movie being released and he actually didn't realize that the film was coming out in 2012...LOL

but you make an excellent point here about Jeremy using the music so well with the examples of the placements of the 3A jumps/sequence. It's a real pity that more skaters and their choreographers don't do that...

 

[merrywidow]

Why is it we can't seem to come up with a skater that can jump but also has some artistic skills too. It seems like its one or the other such as with Max or Gracie. And the skaters who do have both seem to be headcases when it comes to competing such as Jeremy. When we do have a consistent tough competitor it's someone like Rachel Flatt who just never had the talent or skills to ever be a World champion.

It seems to me that Ross Miner fills that bill for US men at present. It's quite difficult to be the best both athletically & artistically. Look at Jason Brown & the trouble he's having with difficult jumps. Mark Mitchell, (Miner's coach) had a lovely style but problems landing jumps, same with Paul Wylie. Damon Allen, Farris' coach is another example. Due to the depth of competition in the US it's hard to make our National team & have it all. Takes a lot of training & excellent coaching. It isn't impossible to succeed both artistically & athletically but Patrick Chan is a rarity, you know. And don't forget, it takes money, alot of it.

 

[blue_idealist]

It seems to me that Ross Miner fills that bill for US men at present. It's quite difficult to be the best both athletically & artistically. Look at Jason Brown & the trouble he's having with difficult jumps. Mark Mitchell, (Miner's coach) had a lovely style but problems landing jumps, same with Paul Wylie. Damon Allen, Farris' coach is another example. Due to the depth of competition in the US it's hard to make our National team & have it all. Takes a lot of training & excellent coaching. It isn't impossible to succeed both artistically & athletically but Patrick Chan is a rarity, you know. And don't forget, it takes money, alot of it.

Plus one could say that Patrick Chan doesn't always succeed athletically, at least not in every program.

 

[Mrs. P]

It seems to me that Ross Miner fills that bill for US men at present. It's quite difficult to be the best both athletically & artistically. Look at Jason Brown & the trouble he's having with difficult jumps. Mark Mitchell, (Miner's coach) had a lovely style but problems landing jumps, same with Paul Wylie. Damon Allen, Farris' coach is another example. Due to the depth of competition in the US it's hard to make our National team & have it all. Takes a lot of training & excellent coaching. It isn't impossible to succeed both artistically & athletically but Patrick Chan is a rarity, you know. And don't forget, it takes money, alot of it.

Actually, Jason Brown's trouble is with one jump -- the 3A. But he's always been in the game (top 10 at Nationals at the senior level and a decent international career in juniors) because his other triples have been of high quality along with his strong artistry. Until he brought the 3A in, he had pretty clean programs. I get that 3A is a must in senior men internationally -- and obviously Brown and his team knows that. But his 3A seems to be getting better quite quickly.

His nationals performance was actually pretty good --it was great to see him attempt two 3As, including once with a 3T. And he had that great 3Z-1L-3S combo in the second half of the program.

That said, I agree it's tough to balance both. And I think Jeremy's issue isn't balance, but more of his injuries that is keeping him from training as much as he would like for some of those harder jumps, namely the quad.

 

[silverlake22]

Maybe slightly OT, but I thought Jeremy turned down being an alternate to Worlds to focus on getting his injury healed and working on the quad. Can anyone confirm if this is true? If it is, it means the first alternate is Adam Rippon, in which case, apprehension of Max's chances I really don't understand, because given Rippon's jump quality and not trying a quad in his programs this season, I'd say Max has much better odds to potentially place higher at Worlds. He could also place lower, but the way I see it, Ross and Max COULD get 3 spots for the US men for next season, whereas with Ross and Adam, getting 3 spots is really a pipe dream IMO.

The way I see it, there are 3 groups of men of interest to Ross and Max that will be at Worlds, and they can be broken down as follows:

Skaters who almost certainly place ahead of Ross and Max, barring disaster

Chan
Takahashi
Hanyu

Skaters who could place above or below Ross and Max based on how they skate

Fernandez - almost put him in the above group, but Ross did beat him at NHK and he only managed 9th at last year's worlds, so if the demons come back to haunt him, he could end up in the lower top 10
Mura - hot and cold skater. when he's on, he's great and likely capable of outscoring the US men, but sometimes he can be quite off and his scores are not very impressive at all.
Amodio - usually consistent and gets good PCS, but he has had some random meltdowns in the past and hitting or missing his quads could make a big difference in his scores and placement. if they all go clean, Amodio likely tops the 2 Americans, but otherwise, it's up in the air
Joubert - quads and skating cleanly are really what it comes down to, if he does both those things, his PCS will be pretty high and he'd likely beat the Americans. but he's not COP-savvy and is mistake prone, inconsistent as of late, and his age is working against him. also, when he makes mistakes, the scores drop a lot
Brezina - like Mura, hot and cold skater. has the quad and will be rewarded if he hits them and skates cleanly/near cleanly, but from a PCS standpoint he doesn't have much over Miner. it will all come down to execution, his scores over the past couple seasons have been all over the place. If clean, he likely beats both US men, but a clean Brezina since he started doing the quads in his programs doesn't seem that likely at this point, and when he makes mistakes, his PCS don't really hold him up

Men that could beat the US guys, but most likely won't

Song - capable of huge quads but his PCS are low even when he hits them. given the concussion he suffered in the fall and that as of late, his performances have not been up to the standard they were on the 2011 GP, I tend to think the US guys will beat him unless they falter and/or Song is on fire
Reynolds - he has quads galore in his arsenal but URs are an issue and the 3a often gives him trouble, negating some of his insane content. also, his PCS tend to be lower than Miner's and even beyond the quads he isn't a stranger to mistakes and pops.
Kovtun/Voronov (the Russian fed will send one or the other yes?) - both great technical skaters with solid quads, but neither will have PCS advantage over our guys and should they make mistakes, the PCS could drop into a quite mediocre range very easily
Verner - with the way he's skated this season he shouldn't even be mentioned, but he is capable of a quad and will get good PCS if through some miracle he puts out two good performances here. and he did score 230 at his nationals last month, so while I highly doubt Tomas will deliver, if he somehow does, there's a chance he could place higher than Ross and Max

Do other people see things as similar? Also, am I forgetting anyone of importance? I believe Denis Ten is injured and won't compete, though if he does I'd probably add him to the 3rd group, even though at his best he could be in the 2nd. So basically, to get 3 spots, the US guys can afford all of the guys in group 1 and 2 of the guys in group 2 to place ahead of them, so long as no one in group 3 (or none of the groups) beats them. It won't be easy but I think it could be possible. Most of the guys in group 2 are just very inconsistent so it's hard to tell how they will fair.

 

[Butterscotch17]

Okay, very late post, but I was gone all last weekend and am just getting caught up on my DVR. So, from what I saw on NBC, here are my thoughts about the men's competition:

Evan Lysacek (interview) - I don't really blame Evan for wanting to come back, because if he did have one more shot, it's now, and he might regret it if he doesn't take it. However, I would be highly surprised if he had any success. His time is passed, and I doubt Chan and Takahashi were exactly quaking in their boots at the news of his comeback. I like Evan and I'm glad that he won in 2010, but seriously, man, quit while you're on top. He said he wants to try and defend his Olympic title? I'd be impressed if he won another National title. And I have to wonder how much of what he said in that interview he actually believes.

Philip Warren - He was a new face to me. I thought his short program was very good, but his long program wasn't what he would've wanted. The fall on the triple axel looked painful and probably took away some of his energy. He just needs to get his triple axel more consistent and he'll be more of a contender. No offense to Philip, but I'm surprised they showed his free skate instead of Alexander Johnson's.

Brandon Mroz - My first thought was that his free skate costume was terrible. But moving on from fashion, Brandon used to be one of America's top men, he almost made the GPF once, and I'm still wondering what has happened with him. When he changed his jump layout, I got nervous, but at least he had the presence of mind not to do too many combinations. The neding of his program was kind of strange for me, and for a second I was like, "Is that the end?" Overall it wasn't a bad skate, but just sort of forgettable for me.

Adam Rippon - I am loving the new Adam! Love the haircut, love the costume, love the program! I've never been a fan of Adam's, but he just won me over at this competition. I always thought he had mediocre jumps and his skating was somewhat boring - no personality, there was nothing that said "star". During this free skate, he had personality by the bucketloads. I've never seen Adam have fun out there like that. And he hit his triple axels! It wasn't perfect, but overall I was very impressed by him.

Jonathan Cassar - I had heard his name before, but I'd never actually seen him skate. With no quad and no triple axel, he had no chance at winning, and he likely never will - he's 26, after all. Yet I enjoyed watching him. There were mistakes on his jumps and it wasn't the best he could've done, but he should be proud of that skate. And he got to skate on national television! His spread eagles were definitely the highlight for me - I 've never seen anyone do them like that. I literally backed up the recording and watched his spread eagles two more times. You can tell he loves to skate, and that made him enjoyable to watch.

Jason Brown - Jason had a decent skate, and I like that he skates to the music and not over it, like some guys do. "Liebestraum" is great for him. And he landed his first triple axel, so that was a great moment for him! He's yet to win me over enough to be considered one of my favorites in the U.S., but give it a little time - it's possible.

Max Aaron - Never ever would I have guessed that Max would win this thing. He was just off my radar as far as contenders for the title went. There were at least five or six other guys I would've predicted as champion before I would have predicted Aaron as champion. That being said, Aaron skated lights out and he deserved to win. Also, he managed to win me over as a fan of his. His skating style is cool. Itend to prefer the more masculine skaters, not always, but usually, and this guy skates like a dude. No, he's not artistic, but he can still be entertaining. His techno short program was awesome and different. In his free skate, the quad salchows were crazy! He's very athletic and I like that. I'm still in a little bit of shock that he won, but I am actually pleased. Seeing him sitting backstage in his T-shirt, I realized he is a good looking dude, also. I'm really liking this guy, his free skate was incredible, and he's a worthy champion.

Richard Dornbush - Richard wasn't at his best at this competition. He didn't have that spark or that "star quality" that he normally has. I don't know, maybe this isn't the best program for him, because I've seen him skate with much more personality than he did. Aslo, when you're known for your big jumps and you miss said jumps, it's never good. I mean, his skate wasn't a meltdown, but just underwhelming.

Ross Miner - I always find myself rooting for Ross. He's the definition of consistent, and I would trust him with the World spots. No, maybe he doesn't have that "it" factor, but I'd much rather have someone reliable than someone who might be brilliant but who could also have a meltdown on any given day. His quad salchow in his free skate was beautiful, and besides that one mistake on the axel, a great skate. Ross is a very strong U.S. #2.

Jeremy Abbott - While Ross is consistent, Jeremy is... not. You can always rely on Jeremy to crumble under the pressure, and it's unfortunate. At least he has enough creds to skate in shows, because he is a beautiful skater and will be good in shows. He should've left off the quad at this competition, in my opinion, and just tried to skate clean. Maybe then he would've been able to sell the program more, because for me, it was borderline boring. I felt the same at this competition as I have everytime I've seen him skate this year - so much talent, but he needs to hit the jumps. He hasn't even had one clean skate this year, and the U.S. can't keep putting their money on him. This wasn't a total meltdown for Jeremy, but too many mistakes to win again. I'm glad the judges didn't really hold him up like the did with Ashley, because Jeremy has had many, many chances to deliver on the world stage, and he never does.

Joshua Farris - If this guy is our future, our future looks pretty bright. His first triple axel was gorgeous; his quad was not, but I know he can work on it. If he's still thinking 2018, he should start considering 2014! His technique is pure and clean, and I hope he will continue to improve and not collapse in a few years like so many beofre him. All in all, he had a great competition, he impressed me, and he can build on this.

Scott Hamilton (commentary) - I'm not sure why everyone hated Scott's commentary so much - I thought he did a pretty good job! He seemed pretty informative, and I liked that you could tell that he actually cared about what he was talking about. I'd rather listen to Scott's commentary than certain other people's. I love how he gets so excited when a skater lands a big jump or something, too - it's funny

Overall, I thought it was a good competition. I was kind of expecting it to be pretty dismal, but it exceeded my expectations. Ross and Max will make a good World team for the U.S. I'm actually more confident with those two than I would've been with Jeremy. No, Max will not get those same program component scores on the international stage, but if he skates like he did at Nationals, he'll do better than anything else the U.S. has to offer at the moment. They won't be getting three spots back, but they shouldn't have any trouble retaining two. My guess is that they will finish 7th and 10th, but who knows.

So that's what I thought of the competition - do you agree? I can't wait for 4CC and Worlds to see how Max and Ross do!

 

[ManyCairns]

Good analyses, Butterscotch and Silverlake!

 

[Butterscotch17]

Maybe slightly OT, but I thought Jeremy turned down being an alternate to Worlds to focus on getting his injury healed and working on the quad. Can anyone confirm if this is true? If it is, it means the first alternate is Adam Rippon, in which case, apprehension of Max's chances I really don't understand, because given Rippon's jump quality and not trying a quad in his programs this season, I'd say Max has much better odds to potentially place higher at Worlds. He could also place lower, but the way I see it, Ross and Max COULD get 3 spots for the US men for next season, whereas with Ross and Adam, getting 3 spots is really a pipe dream IMO.

The way I see it, there are 3 groups of men of interest to Ross and Max that will be at Worlds, and they can be broken down as follows:

Skaters who almost certainly place ahead of Ross and Max, barring disaster

Chan
Takahashi
Hanyu

Skaters who could place above or below Ross and Max based on how they skate

Fernandez - almost put him in the above group, but Ross did beat him at NHK and he only managed 9th at last year's worlds, so if the demons come back to haunt him, he could end up in the lower top 10
Mura - hot and cold skater. when he's on, he's great and likely capable of outscoring the US men, but sometimes he can be quite off and his scores are not very impressive at all.
Amodio - usually consistent and gets good PCS, but he has had some random meltdowns in the past and hitting or missing his quads could make a big difference in his scores and placement. if they all go clean, Amodio likely tops the 2 Americans, but otherwise, it's up in the air
Joubert - quads and skating cleanly are really what it comes down to, if he does both those things, his PCS will be pretty high and he'd likely beat the Americans. but he's not COP-savvy and is mistake prone, inconsistent as of late, and his age is working against him. also, when he makes mistakes, the scores drop a lot
Brezina - like Mura, hot and cold skater. has the quad and will be rewarded if he hits them and skates cleanly/near cleanly, but from a PCS standpoint he doesn't have much over Miner. it will all come down to execution, his scores over the past couple seasons have been all over the place. If clean, he likely beats both US men, but a clean Brezina since he started doing the quads in his programs doesn't seem that likely at this point, and when he makes mistakes, his PCS don't really hold him up

Men that could beat the US guys, but most likely won't

Song - capable of huge quads but his PCS are low even when he hits them. given the concussion he suffered in the fall and that as of late, his performances have not been up to the standard they were on the 2011 GP, I tend to think the US guys will beat him unless they falter and/or Song is on fire
Reynolds - he has quads galore in his arsenal but URs are an issue and the 3a often gives him trouble, negating some of his insane content. also, his PCS tend to be lower than Miner's and even beyond the quads he isn't a stranger to mistakes and pops.
Kovtun/Voronov (the Russian fed will send one or the other yes?) - both great technical skaters with solid quads, but neither will have PCS advantage over our guys and should they make mistakes, the PCS could drop into a quite mediocre range very easily
Verner - with the way he's skated this season he shouldn't even be mentioned, but he is capable of a quad and will get good PCS if through some miracle he puts out two good performances here. and he did score 230 at his nationals last month, so while I highly doubt Tomas will deliver, if he somehow does, there's a chance he could place higher than Ross and Max

Do other people see things as similar? Also, am I forgetting anyone of importance? I believe Denis Ten is injured and won't compete, though if he does I'd probably add him to the 3rd group, even though at his best he could be in the 2nd. So basically, to get 3 spots, the US guys can afford all of the guys in group 1 and 2 of the guys in group 2 to place ahead of them, so long as no one in group 3 (or none of the groups) beats them. It won't be easy but I think it could be possible. Most of the guys in group 2 are just very inconsistent so it's hard to tell how they will fair.

I did a list like this, too. I agree with you for the most part, but here is mine -

Barring disaster, will place ahead of Ross and Max:
Daisuke Takahashi
Patrick Chan
Javier Fernandez
Yuzuru Hanyu
Florent Amodio

Florent barely makes this list, but I think he is a step above the American guys and will beat them. And Fernandez, with his killer skate at Europeans, will definitely be challenging for a medal.

My second group are the ones who may or may not beat Ross and Max:
Michal Brezina
Takahito Mura
Brian Joubert
Kevin Reynolds

The others like Nan Song, whichever Russian competes, Denis Ten and Tomas Verner most likely won't beat Max or Ross, so they're not in my equation.

I have five people in my first group, which means the highest I think Ross or Max can place will be sixth. So say Ross places 6th, Max would have to place 7th for them to get the three spots. That would mean both Max and Ross would have to beat everyone in my second group. Possible? Yes. Likely to happen? No. I think they will probably come in somewhere around 7th and 10th.

Something like:
1. Chan
2. Hanyu
3. Takahashi
4. Fernandez
5. Amodio
6. Mura
7. Miner
8. Brezina
9. Joubert
10. Aaron
11. Reynolds

Of course, the ice is slippery and things never seem to work out how we think they will. I would love for Aaron and Miner to get three spots back, but do I really plan on them doing it? No.

 

[Jammers]

So what is the combined number that Aaron and Ross have to have to keep two spots?

 

[silverlake22]

So what is the combined number that Max and Ross have to have to keep two spots?

13. So I think the realistic outcome we could hope for that would get us 3 spots without seeming unrealistic would be 5th and 8th or 6th and 7th, although any of the following outcomes would do it:
4th and 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th
5th and 6th, 7th, or 8th
6th and 7th

4th place is probably not going to happen but not entirely out of the question. Idk, the odds don't seem so desolate. I feel better with Max on the team about the odds than I do with either Jeremy or Adam on the team. Hitting the quads should help prevent his PCS from being too low. And I think Farris is better off going to JW anyways where he's only competed with the senior version of his FS once, and given his young age he doesn't need a bunch of pressure on him now, especially where it seems like USFS is setting him up to be a top guy in the next quadrennial.

And the thing is, if Flo and Javi are anywhere close to clean, they will beat Max and Ross regardless of what they do, but Ross did beat a lackluster Javi just 2 months ago, and that was with his not so great SP. And Javi last season was pretty spectacular technically too, but then at Euros and Worlds his scores and placements were just okay due to the mistakes. As for Flo, while he's usually pretty consistent, he wasn't so great on the GP this season and had a really poor GP season the year prior to that. Of course, he tends to be one who peaks later in the season, as he always seems to get himself together at Euros and Worlds regardless of how he was skating during the GP, so I think there is a good chance he will beat our guys, but it's not a given. Especially because his 4s isn't all that consistent yet (though the rest of his jumps are gorgeous, but then again, so our our guys' jumps).

I'd be surprised if Kevin beat either of our guys, but if he skates like he did at Canadian Nats, I could see it happening. I wouldn't put my money on it though.