1 Yuna KIM 218.31 SP 1st (BV31.63 GOE5.16) FP 1st (BV58.22 GOE16.51)
2 Carolina KOSTNER 197.89 SP 2nd (BV29.93 GOE4.08) FP 3rd (BV50.75 GOE10.59)
3 Mao ASADA 196.47 SP 6th (BV27.15 GOE2.55) FP 2nd (BV62.30 GOE3.66)
I just realized that even with the missed jump and downgrades, Mao still achieved the highest base value of the three in the free program. That's just mad. Mao should just scale down on her jump content and aim to skate clean.
She should even stop practicing the triple-axel altogether, and just focus on perfecting her flip and lutz so that she can have a triple-triple combo in her short. She's already got similar GOEs to Yuna this time except the flip and lutz. As long as she can get the quality of her toe jumps up, and as long as Yuna doesn't do a loop, Mao would be able to beat her.
It looks like you're working on a scenario where Mao beats Yuna.
Sounds to me though, there are way too many if's and it just lacks reality.
I think I can help you.
First of all, we have to face the fact that Mao cannot give up her triple axle.
(Hey but I absolutely agree that she'll be better off without 3A simply because Mao's so-called triple axle really is a 3-rotation jump rather than 3.5)
Japanese Skating Federation(JSF from now on)'s been pushing ISU to raise the base value of triple axle.
In fact, the BV of 3A has been raised from 7.5 to 8.2 in 2008, and again raised from 8.2 to 8.5 after Yuna dominated Olympics. Not only that, ISU accepted JSF's bid for the new rule where a woman skater could attemp 3A as a single jump in SP.
ISU even lowered BV for double axle from 3.5 to 3.3 to further amplify that special skater's benefit.
In effect, Mao gained 5.2 on base value alone. It's just sad she can't land a clean, non-prerotating 3A.
On the side note, ISU also lowered GOE scale by 30%. So if you think Mao "achieved" relatively close GOE as Yuna's, it is more of an achievement from whoever decided to lowered the GOE scale for whatever reason they had.
My point here is, because JSF has shown so much effort(money, lobbying, sponsorship arrangement, whatever you want to call it) to make 3A the holy grail of women's figure skating, Mao is stuck with the jump regardless of her ability of landing it.
So, back to the part where I would help you build a scenario of Mao's triumphant roar over Yuna, here are my suggestions.
JSF should push ISU even harder to raise the BV of 3A. Let's say, 11.5.
Then have ISU to lower GOE scale by another 30% or so. Simply because there is no way Mao will score higher on "Grade of Execution" than Yuna.
Then just in case, have ISU to lower BV of 2A to let's say, 1.3.
Voilà. Mao just gained extra 5.0 on BV alone(again) and now Yuna's clean SP would have hard time beating Mao's two-foot landing 3A.
I feel obligated to mention one flaw in my scenario though.
Further differentiating 2A and 3A will force some top skaters to include 3A in their SP,
and I must say it sounds much more realistic for Yuna to equip 3A than Mao giving up 3A altogether and
going head to head with Yuna in terms of general quality of skating.