2016-17 GPF Mens FS

[Crossover]

I love Nathan but he is not a new king yet, as he has not even won a National title while most of the participants at Worlds are National champions for their country. Nathan is just fresh out of juniors and a very young and ambitious skater to be a top contender as of now. He is in last season's Boyang's position, but rather a complete package than Boyang and Shoma. None dismissed the top 3 here as the skaters collectively had a complete off day. The ice condition may be one of the factors they underperformed. If Nathan can compete at Worlds in Helsinki, his practical goal is to get a bronze just like Boyang last season.

 

[YesWay]

Here are some of the more recent articles.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1530-9134.2006.00092.x/full
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/tast.2009.0026
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1527002512441479

"Recent"? One written before the 2002 scandal, and one written 10 years ago?
The 2012 one could be called "recent", and shows that transparency might reduce bias in judging.

How is this relevant?

Do you think bias has such a large effect, and is so prevalent at all competitions... and it will work in Chen's favour, not somebody else's...? So Chen doesn't need to make any improvements to win against skaters with superior GoE's, PCS etc? He just needs to convince judges that he is a "medal contender", and they will extend their "generosity" and "mercy" to him?

Whatever, don't bother. I'm not wasting any more time on this -_-

 

[Yatagarasu]

Did Michelle Kwan skate in this event?

Gee, I wonder why you're avoiding facts

Age is not in Fernandez and Chan's favor. .... It's a lot tougher for Hanyu to win in 2018 than many people think. This may sound crazy. But Hanyu really needs to execute the most difficult program ever (much more difficult than his rivals' programs) flawlessly to have any chance to win in 2018.

Nobody has ever denied it is going to be a tough job for anyone, including Hanyu, to win in 2018.

But this idea that you have that it is somehow Nathan Chen who is ahead of them all, while the rest of the top man have to scrape up to catch him, while even dismissing Javier and Chan, is indeed laughable.

I won't even comment on the nonsense that judges want Hanyu to lose

 

[gsyzf]

"Recent"? One written before the 2002 scandal, and one written 10 years ago?
The 2012 one could be called "recent", and shows that transparency might reduce bias in judging.

The introduction of anonymous judging made it difficult for statisticians to do research on this topic. That's why statisticians couldn't do much research on this topic in recent years since the introduction of COP. Most of the research was done when transparent judging was still in effect. Transparency is referring to transparent judging. The introduction of anonymous judging made the judging less transparent. The last paper says anonymous judging facilitates more collusion. Now anonymous judging is removed and you can now identify the judges. You can actually do some analysis yourself and study the pattern of individual judges if you don't believe statisticians and economists' research. You will see that even right now, quite a number of judges don't give much lower scores to younger skaters than the top 3.

 

[YesWay]

irrelevant

Whatever.
Carry on avoiding all questions. I assume you do this because you've got no answers or counter-arguments.
Keep posting irrelevant stuff instead.
Keep posting your made-up-nonsense and conspiracy theories.

 

[gsyzf]

Nobody has ever denied it is going to be a tough job for anyone, including Hanyu, to win in 2018.

But this idea that you have that it is somehow Nathan Chen who is ahead of them all, while the rest of the top man have to scrape up to catch him, while even dismissing Javier and Chan, is indeed laughable.

I never said Chen is ahead of them. I said Chen is a bigger threat than Uno and Jin to the top 3. I also think it's not likely for Fernandez and Chan to consistently deliver from now on due to their age and I think they will be overtaken by younger skaters very soon. Hanyu still has a chance to stay on top, but only if he ups his tech to the hardest possible, but the GOE and PCS gap between him and younger skaters or his other rivals (whoever makes a statement in the next 1-2 years) won't be very big by the time of the olympics if they all deliver. (Judges can give you high scores, but they can also give your rivals high scores.) No men had successfully defended their olympic titles in the last 60+ years.

ETA: in fact, even now, Fernandez and Chan's scores are not much higher than chen and uno's scors. Fernandez's clean lp scored 201. Chan's 1 fall lp scored 196. Without the fall, Chan would score 201+ too. Chen's clean lp scored 197. With a bit more momentum, he will score a bit higher. Shoma's near clean lp without a missed combo scored 195+. If he is clean, he would score 200+ too. So the difference between their scores isn't that big. Only hanyu has higher scoring potential due to higher bv.

 

[Mathman]

Gee, I wonder why you're avoiding facts

Quads are becoming more important in IJS scoring. Hanyu won the short program because he landed more quads than the others. Chen won the free skate because he landed more quads than the others. The number of points that you get by landing a quad successfully is so great that it is increasingly difficult to bridge the gap by picking up extra points on the PCS side.

Kindly stop being so belligerent and irascible about nothing. We are all friends here.

 

[Yatagarasu]

I never said Chen is ahead of them. I said Chen is a bigger threat than Uno and Jin to the top 3. I also think it's not likely for Fernandez and Chan to consistently deliver from now on due to their age and I think they will be overtaken by younger skaters very soon. Hanyu still has a chance to stay on top, but only if he ups his tech to the hardest possible, but the GOE and PCS gap between him and younger skaters or his other rivals (whoever makes a statement in the next 1-2 years) won't be very big by the time of the olympics if they all deliver. (Judges can give you high scores, but they can also give your rivals high scores.) No men had successfully defended their olympic titles in the last 60+ years.

You've getting way, way ahead of yourself, especially with this idea that judges are somehow working to make sure that there is a 'new' Olympic Champion. That alone is not plausible.
We don't know how Chan and Javier will be from now on (don't forget Javier has the 4Lo ready but isn't using it this season), much like we do not know if Chen is going to be consistent either or Shoma. Nobody doubts that the youngesters are going to be legitimate threats in the OG but at the same time the oldies aren't quite yet there to be discarded.

As for Hanyu, he already has a 4 quad program and he's landing the 4Lz in practice. This is after he had two months off ice with a terrible injury and after they contemplated even skipping this season due to it yet here he is, GPF under his belt, 3 quads stable including the new one, where the fourth is a matter of timing and concentration. All this with a chock full program, unlike Chen. Let us see Chen add to his program and see how that goes first. Hanyu is already there, with incredibly difficult programs, this is not new. He knows that high tech is required, this is not new. The situation has not changed one bit with what Chen did. Not one bit

 

[Yatagarasu]

Quads are becoming more important in IJS scoring. Hanyu won the short program because he landed more quads than the others. Chen won the free skate because he landed more quads than the others. The number of points that you get by landing a quad successfully is so great that it is increasingly difficult to bridge the gap by picking up extra points on the PCS side.

Kindly stop being so belligerent and irascible about nothing. We are all friends here.

Friends? We're just members of the same forum.
If you don't want me to resort to sarcasm address the actual points being made but you haven't been doing that, with me or the other poster who pretty much told you the same things.

Quads have been important for quite a while now, this is not new in any way which is why Hanyu for example insisted, against his coach's advice, on a new quad and a four quad program even after his injury and time off ice and why Fernandez added an extra mid-last season.
Landing them has always been important, this is not new either.
New, young skaters arriving, is not new either. Chen, Shoma and Boyang didn't appear this season. They're acknowledged threats.

Chen's consistency is yet to be seen and his programs are not at the overall difficulty level of the top tier men.
The top tier men could lower their overall difficulty level and yes, this would make the quads easier to land for them.

Hanyu already has four quads in his FS and a messy Hanyu still managed to win overall, with btw, a combined total of 14+ PCS more than Nathan Chen and an overall victory margin of 11.05 points. Overall quality matters.
A messy Hanyu cannot win over a clean FS Fernandez as we saw in Boston, even with a 12 point advantage he had after the SP.

Where the PCS don't make all that much difference is in the top tier, which is not where Chen is. Once he does enter, we can talk about other things but in order to enter he has to have the overall level of difficulty of Hanyu, Fernandez and Chan and then on top of that, he has to land his quads. Boyang isn't having that good of a time with that right now. Until this happens, the PCS difference between him and the other three is significant.

Yes, you are right that it is difficult to bridge the gap on the extra points on the PCS side but again, we'll see how consistent Chen is with his quads once his overall difficulty goes up because only then are you measuring the same things.

If you want to talk about whether a clean five quad program by Chen (which has not been done yet) can beat Hanyu's four quad program, then say so. There are of course ways for this to happen.

Of course, when it comes to the tech side, the top tier men aren't idle either.
Hanyu is working on the 4Lz and landing it. Javier has the 4Lo ready, just chose not to include it this season, so far. I don't know only about Patrick but he probably has something happening too. Shoma also seems to be working on the next quad, the 4Lo.

In the end, what it may come down to is similar difficulty programs and overall quality but again, this is not new. In fact, nothing has changed from the start of this season where it was obvious that the tech was important, that consistency was important, that new skaters are very, very good and evolving and that it will be close to the wire.

So statements like this one

Nathan Chen crushed it. Hanyu, Chan, and Javi -- it was nice knowing you.

just because Chen landed an otherwise pretty empty four quad FS program are not helpful in any way. It's not just that they're inaccurate but that they bring nothing to a pretty interesting conversation which has been around this forum since the start of the season when it comes to PCS, GOE and tech content planned and executed needed not only for Helsinki but the 2018 too. Anyway, have a nice day because I am so done.

 

[gsyzf]

You've getting way, way ahead of yourself, especially with this idea that judges are somehow working to make sure that there is a 'new' Olympic Champion. That alone is not plausible.
We don't know how Chan and Javier will be from now on (don't forget Javier has the 4Lo ready but isn't using it this season), much like we do not know if Chen is going to be consistent either or Shoma. Nobody doubts that the youngesters are going to be legitimate threats in the OG but at the same time the oldies aren't quite yet there to be discarded.

As for Hanyu, he already has a 4 quad program and he's landing the 4Lz in practice. This is after he had two months off ice with a terrible injury and after they contemplated even skipping this season due to it yet here he is, GPF under his belt, 3 quads stable including the new one, where the fourth is a matter of timing and concentration. All this with a chock full program, unlike Chen. Let us see Chen add to his program and see how that goes first. Hanyu is already there, with incredibly difficult programs, this is not new. He knows that high tech is required, this is not new. The situation has not changed one bit with what Chen did. Not one bit

Judges have been looking for new olympic champs since the beginning of this olympic cycle, not just now. That's why you see all of hanyu's rivals' scores getting inflated. If judges wanted Hanyu to win, you will see a big gap between hanyu's GOE and PCS remaining between him and his rivals, rather than almost no gap. The inflation didn't just happen now. It's been happening for a while. (Note: I'm not saying anyone is not deserving of their GOE or PCS. What I'm saying is that if you see judges giving similar GOE and PCS to a few skaters, they are trying to even the field, so no one can dominate. If they want to help someone win and dominate, they will give that person much higher GOE and PCS than the rest of the field, like what's happening to the ladies today. ETA: I personally don't prefer to see a big gap in GOE and PCS because that's usually an indication of favoritism and allows judges' favorites to win with major mistakes over his/her rivals. There should be some difference in GOE and PCS to reflect the quality differences, but the gap should never be so big to allow judges' favorites to win with major mistakes when their rivals give better performances.)

Just for comparison purpose:
Fernandez's clean LP at COR got: 15.2 GOE, 95.7 PCS (The judges at COR are very more generous judges.)
Chan's 1 FALL LP at COC got: 12.55 GOE, 93 PCS
Hanyu's 1 Fall LP at NHK got: 11.93 GOE, 92.52 PCS
Chen's clean LP at GPF got: 12.11 GOE, 84.42 PCS
Uno's near clean LP at GPF got: 12.27 GOE, 90.94 PCS.

The GOE and PCS difference between these skaters isn't big even now. Chen's scores are what he gets a newbie. His GOE and PCS will rise just with momentum (if he maintains the momentum) even if he shows no improvement.

ETA: I never said Chen will be the new olympic champ. In fact, I think his age will be a disadvantage because he is young and won't have enough competition experience by the next olympics. None of the teenage skaters did well in their first olympics. Both of Hanyu and Plushenko's first olympic performances were not good. Hanyu won because his rivals also skated poorly but Plushenko didn't win because his rival was yagudin who skated well. I'm saying Hanyu isn't the one favored by the judges to win the next Olympics. He has many rivals (not just one person) that can overtake him if he can't execute the most difficult layout flawlessly. Chen is the biggest threat to Hanyu among the younger skaters.

 

[gsyzf]

Whatever.
Carry on avoiding all questions. I assume you do this because you've got no answers or counter-arguments.
Keep posting irrelevant stuff instead.
Keep posting your made-up-nonsense and conspiracy theories.

To answer your question, if Hanyu keeps his current layout, i.e. 4 quads with 3 types of quads, Chen does not need to improve to outscore Hanyu, Fernandez and Chan because he has higher BV in both SP and LP (5 quads). If he is perceived as a medal contender and lands his quads, he would get similar GOE as these 3 and his PCS won't be too much lower than the top skaters and the PCS gap can be overcome by his BV advantage. But if Hanyu ups his layout to 4 quads with 4 types of quads, i.e. Hanyu has similar BV as Chen, then Chen would need to improve more to outscore Hanyu.

ETA: Another factor that would push Chen to improve is the level of competition in his country. He is not guaranteed to make the worlds/olympics team due to the depth of men's field in his country. He would need to improve and consistently deliver to make the worlds/olympics team. That's another factor that makes Chen a bigger threat to top skaters than Jin, i.e. Chen is forced by the level of competition within his country to improve and consistently deliver to even make the worlds/olympics team. Jin is guaranteed to make the team since he has no rivals in his countries.

 

[padme21]

It's really impossible to say who will win the olympics in 2018. Based on the current performances of the men I would still say that Hanyu and Fernandez would be the front runners. Shoma, Jin, Chan, and Chen are all potential podium threats though. A lot can happen between now and the Olympics. It has yet to be seen how Nathan does at nationals and worlds. Even if Nathan does well he still has to survive the sophomore slump (aka second season as a senior.) which his rivals Shoma and Jin have survived so far. Over all it will be harder for Hanyu to win than it was in Sochi. The competition is fierce. I hope all competitors stay healthy and free of any serious injuries.

 

[Khoai]

When Jason Brown was still the darling of USFA, North American fans: "The top man only put transitions in without any meaning to the music. Their programs are nothing, just jump battle."
When Nathan Chen suddenly become USFA's darling while he peaks MID season (yes, mid season, and he might break at 4CC and WC), North American fans: "Quads mean everything!!"
I love North American fans. They have such short memories. And since when GPF become this important? Didn't Mr. Chan said it somewhere something like who cares about GPF.
Any of these skaters might flop at WC 2017, or if they won't flop there, it will be later next season. Don't get too much ahead of yourself. Remember quads break your bodies. You will never know.

 

[el henry]

When Jason Brown was still the darling of USFA, North American fans: "The top man only put transitions in without any meaning to the music. Their programs are nothing, just jump battle."
When Nathan Chen suddenly become USFA's darling while he peaks MID season (yes, mid season, and he might break at 4CC and WC), North American fans: "Quads mean everything!!"
I love North American fans. They have such short memories. And since when GPF become this important? Didn't Mr. Chan said it somewhere something like who cares about GPF.
Any of these skaters might flop at WC 2017, or if they won't flop there, it will be later next season. Don't get too much ahead of yourself. Remember quads break your bodies. You will never know.

I almost never use this emoji, but all North American fans????

If all North American fans felt the same way, we would all love Jason Brown for his superior skating skills, performance, interpretation, transition and spins. As I do now, in December 2016. Even with Nathan Chen competing. I prefer Jason, I think he is a better, more well-rounded skater, and I prefer to watch him skate. Sadly, all North American fans do not feel the same way.

And last year, there were plenty of North American fans having hissy fits over Adam winning Nats ahead of Nathan with five, my God, count 'em, five, can you believe it, five quads? I know because I argued with them, because I was completely on board with Adam's win. Five quads and no program, whoop-de-doo. I felt that way then and I feel that way now. But *every* North American fan???? I wish.

And although I have my preferences, and my preference is not Nathan, I am also realistic. If Nathan lands five quads, Nathan will win Nats. And go far in Worlds. Whatever I think.

 

[Mathman]

Friends? We're just members of the same forum.
If you don't want me to resort to sarcasm address the actual points being made but you haven't been doing that, with me or the other poster who pretty much told you the same things.

Why are you so angry? Hanyu won! You should be happy. As for the "actual points being made," well yes, they are all interesting and valid. Carry on.

 

[Khoai]

I almost never use this emoji, but all North American fans????

If all North American fans felt the same way, we would all love Jason Brown for his superior skating skills, performance, interpretation, transition and spins. As I do now, in December 2016. Even with Nathan Chen competing. I prefer Jason, I think he is a better, more well-rounded skater, and I prefer to watch him skate. Sadly, all North American fans do not feel the same way.

And last year, there were plenty of North American fans having hissy fits over Adam winning Nats ahead of Nathan with five, my God, count 'em, five, can you believe it, five quads? I know because I argued with them, because I was completely on board with Adam's win. Five quads and no program, whoop-de-doo. I felt that way then and I feel that way now. But *every* North American fan???? I wish.

And although I have my preferences, and my preference is not Nathan, I am also realistic. If Nathan lands five quads, Nathan will win Nats. And go far in Worlds. Whatever I think.

Where did I say "all North American fans"? I said "North American fans", not "all".
I just find it amusing that many North American fans are believing that Mr. Chen win OGM already with almost no skating transitions. This is GPF and it's mid season. None of them learn any lesson at all about mid season?
Why are they so naive? They truly believe those 36 crossovers without difficult transitions do not pass ISU's eyes? But of course, USFA is the strongest federation out there. What else they could not do?
Anyway, Mr. Chen is seriously going to try 5 quads at National? Good luck with his hips.

 

[Khoai]

But Hanyu really needs to execute the most difficult program ever (much more difficult than his rivals' programs) flawlessly to have any chance to win in 2018.

Do you have any idea you sound very funny and a bit stupid?

 

[giulia95]

+1

I feel like I'm very funny and a bit stupid too

 

[el henry]

Where did I say "all North American fans"? I said "North American fans", not "all".
I just find it amusing that many North American fans are believing that Mr. Chen win OGM already with almost no skating transitions. This is GPF and it's mid season. None of them learn any lesson at all about mid season?
Why are they so naive? They truly believe those 36 crossovers without difficult transitions do not pass ISU's eyes? But of course, USFA is the strongest federation out there. What else they could not do?
Anyway, Mr. Chen is seriously going to try 5 quads at National? Good luck with his hips.

I apologize if you did not mean "all".

Many Americans share your concern for Nathan's health and as an American, I personally am of the opinion that Nathan does not have a long program worthy of the name "program". That does not mean I uber Yuzu, Patrick or Javi either.

That designation, for current skaters, is reserved for Jason No matter where he finishes.

 

[Khoai]

I apologize if you did not mean "all".

Many Americans share your concern for Nathan's health and as an American, I personally am of the opinion that Nathan does not have a long program worthy of the name "program". That does not mean I uber Yuzu, Patrick or Javi either.

That designation, for current skaters, is reserved for Jason No matter where he finishes.

From what I know, ISU (or at least the highest order of it) is not happy with quad quad quad quad programs without skating and choreography content. So if any coach is wise, they should do something about skating to their quad jumpers as soon as possible.