2016-17 State of Russian Ladies skating

[Hevari]

What i would like:
1. Anna Pogorilaya
2. Wakaba Higuchi
3. Maria Sotskova
4. Satoko Miyahara

So low for Satoko? Really or you just don't like Tiny Queen?)

 

[Tolstoj]

So low for Satoko? Really or you just don't like Tiny Queen?)

I love her skating, i don't like her jumps: Wakaba to me is far superior and Japan now has the chance to switch their top contender, but likely Satoko will win the event.

 

[Hevari]

I love her skating, i don't like her jumps: Wakaba to me is far superior and Japan now has the chance to switch their top contender, but likely Satoko will win the event.

I think - Satoko is very consistent and Wakaba (I like her too) has to surviver her puberty and if so - it's a mistake to make her top contender just because she is superior jumper. Figure skating is not only about jumps. By the way - let's stop this offtop here)

 

[Krunchii]

I was wrong in the best way, Elena may still have a fighting chance, she choose a good place to skate her FS, they love Turandot in China, bounced back from last year's bronze

A clean Anna should beat Wakaba for now but she's unpredictable, hopefully she'll continue the trend from Elena and bounce back, then Nationals will be fun

 

[lavoix]

I just want Sotskova at the GP final.

 

[[email protected]]

I wish her the best there but Japan is in trouble at the moment: Satoko and Wakaba are their best skaters at the moment and they have just a bronze medal, Mai is already out with this 4th place, Rika and Mao disappointing this season; also Masha Sotskova will be there, Mariah Bell... the field is crowded and everyone wants those medals.

My prediction:
1. Satoko Miyahara
2. Wakaba Higuchi
3. Anna Pogorilaya
4. Maria Sotskova

What i would like:
1. Anna Pogorilaya
2. Wakaba Higuchi
3. Maria Sotskova
4. Satoko Miyahara

I think it's in Anna's hands. If she skates like she skated in Moscow or in Boston it won't matter how Satoko skates not speaking about Wakaba. Even in Japan. But with Sotskova it's another thing. She is doomed to be lowballed like Russian juniors were lowballed in Japan this year. Then if everyone skates clean I think Maria has few chances to be above Wakaba and Satoko. Hence, the basic scenario for GPF is 3 Russians, 2 Japanese, and 1 Canadian. And it will be a good proxy for the Russian national team which will look exactly the same as the last season.

The team will likely be the same. Then so much for russophobic "ladies des jours" thing popular a year ago here. The choir had to shut up. Because now there is a setup any country can only dream of: a clear prima donna, 3 seasoned senior skaters capable of any international podiums with some already earned medals and titles (Anna, Elena, Liza), 2 dark horses who had their moments of fame, who are struggling now, but who theoretically can get back (Yulia and Adelina) because they still have a strong brand equity, 1 fresh senior (Maria) who has to find her place in a very crowded place but who works hard and waits if some opportunity turns up. Then there is a junior ocean below them - but that's a different story.

 

[[email protected]]

One more thing is about critique of Medvedeva which for me is the attempt to mask the outright hate of her quick success in beating someones favorites both directly and indirectly (WR). I don't have to defend her pointing to her uniqueness which is not just about consistency. I think Satoko is more consistent but she is nowhere near Zhenya podium wise. Judges with their scores defend Zhenya much better than I could do.

What I'd like to say is that ideas that "this season Anna is going to get to Medvedeva", "next season Polina T. is going to beat Medvedeva" have nothing to do with the sincere love of Anna or Polina. It's just another "clever" form of bashing Zhenya. Because they are not based on reality or analysis. Clean Anna maxed out in Boston and Moscow with 215. She is not going to change her program till the end of the season. It's hard to expect her to be as consistent as Medvedeva as it is just not who she is. She already had some subpar performances this season. Then if everything goes right she may get to 217-218 toward the end of the season. How can she beat Evgenija who gets 220+ with a fall? As for Tsurskaya, she improved a lot artistry wise. But she has lost her consistency and she might struggle with puberty now that she is entering the highest risk period. She is 15.5 years old now with 172+ height. Any forecasts for 2017 are absolutely premature especially about her beating Medvedeva. But again it is not about how much people like Anna and Polina (whom I personally adore). It is about how much they dislike Medvedeva.

 

[Tolstoj]

I think it's in Anna's hands. If she skates like she skated in Moscow or in Boston it won't matter how Satoko skates not speaking about Wakaba. Even in Japan. But with Sotskova it's another thing. She is doomed to be lowballed like Russian juniors were lowballed in Japan this year. Then if everyone skates clean I think Maria has few chances to be above Wakaba and Satoko. Hence, the basic scenario for GPF is 3 Russians, 2 Japanese, and 1 Canadian. And it will be a good proxy for the Russian national team which will look exactly the same as the last season.

The team will likely be the same. Then so much for russophobic "ladies des jours" thing popular a year ago here. The choir had to shut up. Because now there is a setup any country can only dream of: a clear prima donna, 3 seasoned senior skaters capable of any international podiums with some already earned medals and titles (Anna, Elena, Liza), 2 dark horses who had their moments of fame, who are struggling now, but who theoretically can get back (Yulia and Adelina) because they still have a strong brand equity, 1 fresh senior (Maria) who has to find her place in a very crowded place but who works hard and waits if some opportunity turns up. Then there is a junior ocean below them - but that's a different story.

That is so true, every year the russian team becomes stronger and the newcomers are here to stay.

Last season so many people considered Liza already not relevant because of her "lack of artistry" and her unstable 3A, then Elena not competitive because of her "terrible posture" and the "awful programs", then Anna Pogo and her "spectacular" falls, or the "really disappointing GP season".

We don't even need to explain, their medals already speaks for themselves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizaveta_Tuktamysheva#Competitive_highlights
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elena_Radionova#Competitive_highlights
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Pogorilaya#Competitive_highlights

BTW this is the 4th GPF in a row for Elena Radionova, same as Carolina Kostner in her entire career.

 

[Sam L]

I think Polina will end Zhenya's reign. Maria has some work to do but I agree that it's going to be a tough road for her to the GPF but I am hopeful. I hope she makes it. I'm thinking it'll be Zhenya, Anna, Lena, Maria, Satoko and Katelyn.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

What I'd like to say is that ideas that "this season Anna is going to get to Medvedeva", "next season Polina T. is going to beat Medvedeva" have nothing to do with the sincere love of Anna or Polina. It's just another "clever" form of bashing Zhenya.

In some cases yes, in some cases no.

Clean Anna maxed out in Boston and Moscow with 215.

That was last season. IMO, Anna improved a lot in her overall skating and presentation, her LP is also a better program than last years. If she skates completely clean - independently from what Evgenia does/scores - she should score better than she did at worlds. And she was also a dark horse at best back then, now she's a reigning worlds medalist. Another point that might make her marks go up.

As for Tsurskaya, she improved a lot artistry wise. But she has lost her consistency and she might struggle with puberty now that she is entering the highest risk period. She is 15.5 years old now with 172+ height. Any forecasts for 2017 are absolutely premature especially about her beating Medvedeva.

Polina had a very tough injury this summer and lost a lot of training time, I know you know that - why decry she lost her consistency already after 2 events, when she obviously needed time to get back into things? Just look at how much better her second event was then the first. And Polina already went through a lot of body changes, while being injured, and is coming back still with the best jumps in the bizz. If I'd put my money on any under 18 year old to keep her jumps until the grandma stages of figure skating, it would be definitely Polina. Of course we can never say for sure what will happen, but IMO Polina has everything to end anybody's reign on the senior scene.

 

[[email protected]]

. And Polina already went through a lot of body changes.

And? Does it mean it's over? I don't think so. As I said she is 15.5. It's about time when Yulia's troubles started. Radionova was rock solid until 16. Gracie had monstrous jumps pre-puberty. Those who keep saying that she is still a great jumper are imo plain delusional. Polina's parents are very tall. She may get to 175+ And then what? May be she won't be affected and will become the first 178 cm lady with huge stable jumps. May be not - we don't know. But risks are high. New generation in Russia is much taller than the previous one. My wife is 183 - very tall indeed. But my 3 year old son is already 112 - the average height of a 5.5 year old boy.

So, again, I am all for Polina. Her lutz with delayed rotation is the best in the world. But I would decouple her future from the future of Medvedeva. At least for now.

 

[Sam L]

Hopefully Polina has stopped growing. I think this height 172cm is already enough. But I think there is no reason to believe that she would keep her jump ability. Her technique is so good.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

And? Does it mean it's over? I don't think so.

Probably not, but the point is that she already managed to go through a lot of changes and it did not affect her jumps negatively. That IMO is a good base to be positive about her managing further changes as well. Julia and Elena never had the same technique and power in their jumps that Polina does, so they're not really the best to compare her to.
And I'm surprised you're pulling the puberty card against Polina... in favor of Evgenia. I'm not saying Evgenia will still change physically all that much, but she very well might. She's still very slim, and while it might stay that way, she might also be an example of someone developing very late (I have a friend who really hit puberty at 18, while I was basically done changing with 15... people are very different in that). IMO, if you want to say 'but we don't know Polina will be in 2018', you have to say the same about Evgenia (and basically everybody else).

So, again, I am all for Polina. Her lutz with delayed rotation is the best in the world. But I would decouple her future from the future of Medvedeva. At least for now.

I'm not sure I'm getting this... currently, these 2 are not competing against each other, so it's a bit of a non-point anyway. But if speculating about 2018, we couple together every skaters futures, otherwise it wouldn't work. So why should one not look at potential Polina vs Evgenia in 2018?

 

[puremagic]

As for Tsurskaya, she improved a lot artistry wise. But she has lost her consistency and she might struggle with puberty now that she is entering the highest risk period. She is 15.5 years old now with 172+ height. Any forecasts for 2017 are absolutely premature especially about her beating Medvedeva.

Yes, in this season her SP one of the best I ever seen. So mesmerizing. Incredible. But, what about fight Evgenia vs. Polina - it's hard question. Because of some factors:

1) Don't forget, Evgenia came after junior season and raise her score in every competition step by step to world record in the end of the season.
2) Their choreography the same with the exception of Evgenia work with Iliya Averbuch and Polina with Gleyhingauz. So in transition Evgenia will be better.
3) But Polina has stronger BV of her TES (if Evgenia won't surprise us in the Olympic season and won't show some ultra-combos or quad Salcow)
4) Evgenia has advantage because she is reigning World Champion and may be will be two times. And all this will give her higher PCS.

But overall, if Evgenia won't change her TES, I would say Polina has chances at least to give Evgenia tough fight.

 

[rosy14]

Yes, in this season her SP one of the best I ever seen. So mesmerizing. Incredible. But, what about fight Evgenia vs. Polina - it's hard question. Because of some factors:

1) Don't forget, Evgenia came after junior season and raise her score in every competition step by step to world record in the end of the season.
2) Their choreography the same with the exception of Evgenia work with Iliya Averbuch and Polina with Gleyhingauz. So in

transition Evgenia will be better.
3) But Polina has stronger BV of her TES (if Evgenia won't surprise us in the Olympic season and won't show some ultra-combos or quad Salcow)
4) Evgenia has advantage because she is reigning World Champion and may be will be two times. And all this will give her higher PCS.
overall, if Evgenia won't change her TES, I would say Polina has chances at least to give Evgenia tough fight.

For all: Euros podium 2013: Kostner, Liza, Adelina. No Julia. Worlds 2013: Kim, Kostner, Mao, no Russians. Euros 2014: Julia, Adelina, Carolina, no Liza. Olympics and World: you know. Euros and Worlds 2015: Liza, Elena, Anna//Liza, Satoko, Elena. And then enters Evgenia. What I mean: ice is slippery, puberty affects more or less everyone, judges are humans, subject to passions, feelings, errors, influences. Plus politics: Worlds are this year in Finland, a border with Russia, Olympics in Korea, a long friendship with USA.
Of course ice is slippwry even at Nationals, Moscow is heavier than St Petersburg, CSKA is always CSKA...

 

[andromache]

Hopefully Polina has stopped growing. I think this height 172cm is already enough. But I think there is no reason to believe that she would keep her jump ability. Her technique is so good.

It is. If more growth spurts result in a few problems, I still think she'll be fine long term, especially if Eteri has a jump technician on her team to help make the tweaks where necessary. Good jump technique lasts a long time.

Her big jumps will probably make her less consistent than someone like Evgenia or Satoko, but she'll still get better GOEs. She has great spins and great artistry, very good presence on the ice. I just hope that Averbukh doesn't do her choreography once she moves senior.

 

[Tolstoj]

It is. If more growth spurts result in a few problems, I still think she'll be fine long term, especially if Eteri has a jump technician on her team to help make the tweaks where necessary. Good jump technique lasts a long time.

Her big jumps will probably make her less consistent than someone like Evgenia or Satoko, but she'll still get better GOEs. She has great spins and great artistry, very good presence on the ice. I just hope that Averbukh doesn't do her choreography once she moves senior.

Likely Averbukh will create something for her if she is a real contender for a spot at the OG.

There is a sort of partnership between Eteri and Averbukh where he is like Tarasova few years ago when she used to choreograph programs for the very top skaters.

The thing is:
1. I do really like Danil's programs. He choreographed for Polina the Game of Thrones program this season and her previous SP, and both programs are beautiful (good for seniors); he choreographed Ilia's programs and Adian's SP last season and they are good too,... Even Tutberidze's stuffs aren't that bad after all.

2. Averbukh's programs can be masterpiece or just weird: i hope he choreographed these programs for Evgenia knowing that these kind of stuffs are fine now but not enough for an Olympic program. Julia's FS at Sochi or Zhenya's LP last season were a piece of art, something like that for both Evgenia and Polina at the OG, would be amazing to see.

 

[Tutto]

After watching CoC I have a question re Elena's sp, I am not familiar with Porgy & Bess so I am puzzled by that peculiar crooked position Elena seems to retain during the whole performance - is is a part of the script, visual illusion due to a dress design or Elena's bad posture getting progressively worse?!

 

[Sweet Dream]

After watching CoC I have a question re Elena's sp, I am not familiar with Porgy & Bess so I am puzzled by that peculiar crooked position Elena seems to retain during the whole performance - is is a part of the script, visual illusion due to a dress design or Elena's bad posture getting progressively worse?!

She has grown a lot compared to last season, but her posture and jump technique are always very poor.

I agree with Mishin that the rules on the execution of the jumps should be revised, and I hope to see more unbiased specialists like Amano on the judge panels.

 

[Sugarpova]

congrats to Anna & Masha skating clean SPs at NHK!:clapper:
Anna's spin tho:noshake: