2016-2017 Grand Prix selections

[Blades of Passion]

It rather looks like a stigmatization to remind of the cancellation by the Paris attack

I can see how it might be taken that way, when intonation is lost in writing and the personal viewpoints/idiosyncrasies of forum posters on these matters are not known by all. Definitely not my intent, sigh. Perhaps we can return to Grand Prix discussion now.

 

[tulosai]

I do think that since no offense or ill humor was meant, it might be sporting of you to change it, perhaps to France likes Crepes or something lighter and stereotypical as you did for the other events. I do think you have to understand that given what happened in Nice less than 24 hours ago, most people are not going to be in the right mood for your attempt at humor or prayer for less violence or whatever you did intend. I don't think that's to do with anyone's idiosyncrasies, but to do with the fact that extremely recent current events quite naturally are going to make the comment distasteful and not funny to most people who know what's going on there right now.

 

[cheerknithanson]

Is it confirmed if Coomes/Buckland are going to be out? If so, who would replace them?

 

[Princessroja]

Is it confirmed if Coomes/Buckland are going to be out? If so, who would replace them?

Wait, why would they be out? :sad21:

 

[humbaba]

There's a rumor that Penny suffered a knee injury and had surgery. I don't know if the rumor is true. We'll have to wait for the skaters to confirm things one way or the other.

 

[Ice Dance]

Is it confirmed if Coomes/Buckland are going to be out? If so, who would replace them?

Top 5 SB dance replacement teams remain the same as before Testa & Csolley scratched:

1. Kavaliova & Bieliaiev
2. Pogrebinsky & Benoit
3. Cannuscio & McManus
4. Torn & Partanen
5. Biechler & Dodge

Pogrebinsky & Benoit, Kavaliova & Bieliaiev, Cannuscio & McManus are scheduled for a back-to-back event with France (P&B and K&B on the same continent, however). France also already selected team #6 Mansour & Ceska. So TEF could also look at teams:
7. Lorenz & Polizoakis
8. Bent & Razgulajevs
9. Min & Gamelin

Cannuscio & McManus are also scheduled back to back with NHK (not a huge deal, as CoC is on the same continent), but Japan could consider the top 5 plus:
6. Mansour & Ceska.

If Cannuscio & McManus, Kavaliova & Bieliaiev, or Pogrebinsky & Benoit are selected for one event prior to the other event's selection, then that team would come completely off the list and France could consider #10 Kim & Minov or Japan could consider #7 Lorenz & Polizoakis.

My guess is that France would take the Germans. TEF already skipped over all the American teams (ironically, France is the only event with only one U.S. dance team) & the Belarussians in order to take Mansour & Ceska. I'm guessing TEF will skip over them again and take a European team on the list. Lorenz and Polizoakis are more of a threat than Mansour & Ceska, though, to Lauriault & Le Gac. (And Torn & Partanen are essentially on the same level as L&P). If France feels like stacking the deck more in L&L's favor, the Belarussians finished eleven spots below the Germans at Worlds last season.

I have no idea about Japan.

 

[Princessroja]

There's a rumor that Penny suffered a knee injury and had surgery. I don't know if the rumor is true. We'll have to wait for the skaters to confirm things one way or the other.

:sad21:

 

[chuckm]

Yes, France has only one US dance team---and that happens to be the lowest-ranked (#6) seed.

 

[andromache]

Does anyone think Mariah Bell has a chance at the SA pick? Or are they more likely to give Tyler Pierce a second spot?

If USFS was smart in picking and choosing their ladies, there would be no decision made until Champs Camps test skate/someone observing all potential possibilities do run-throughs. They shouldn't pick someone based on last season, especially with these ladies who are sooooo up and down. A test skate would be the ideal situation since it would put some pressure on the ladies to deliver.

Hannah Miller seems the most mentally solid, but it depends on if she's underrotating every jumping pass or not, which depends on how much progress she's made with Raf.

Unfortunately, USFS doesn't really do test skates for these types of decisions. Sigh. Where's Marta Karolyi when you need her?

 

[temadd]

If USFS was smart in picking and choosing their ladies, there would be no decision made until Champs Camps test skate/someone observing all potential possibilities do run-throughs. They shouldn't pick someone based on last season, especially with these ladies who are sooooo up and down. A test skate would be the ideal situation since it would put some pressure on the ladies to deliver.

Hannah Miller seems the most mentally solid, but it depends on if she's underrotating every jumping pass or not, which depends on how much progress she's made with Raf.

Unfortunately, USFS doesn't really do test skates for these types of decisions. Sigh. Where's Marta Karolyi when you need her?

I agree. Test skates would be a good addition to USFS selections. Put the pressure on the skaters to perform well for their assignments!

I personally am rooting for Tyler Pierce who seems to be more solid with her 3Lz3T and 3T3T and was better under pressure last season than Mariah. My second choice would be Hannah Miller who looked great at Nationals.

 

[Jammers]

M/C really blew it not going Senior this season. Even if the Ice Dancing field wasn't expanded to 10 teams per GP with all the injuries they would have easily had 2 GP's this season. Instead they are taking up spots on the JGP that could and should be going to younger US Teams that need the experience.

 

[chuckm]

Who are they taking spots away from? The US has 14 JGP slots, and M/C and P/P will take up 4 of those. 10 slots remain


Of the other 12 teams from 2016 Nationals:

BIECHLER / DODGE (JR5) and POGREBINSKY / BENOIT (JR3) have moved up to senior.
DAY / LEAHY, who skated the JGP last year, but WD from Nationals, have split
The BECKERS (JR8) apparently have split (she has outgrown him)
Also split:
EFIMOVA / MacMILLAN (J9) - she has reteamed with Sasha PETROV
GROSUL / COLUCCI (J10)
TAKAI / MARTIN (J11) - she is skating Senior for Canada with Dominic BARTHE
ADDAS / SCHULTZ (J12) - she has reteamed with Michael VALDEZ

Of the remaining teams from 2016 Nationals, who will get those 10 slots?
CARREIRA / PONOMARENKO (JR4) and LEWIS / BYE (JR6) got 2 slots each last year and will get the same this year.
GROPMAN / SOMERVILLE should get 2 events instead of the one they got last year.

4 slots remain.

Of the Novices, the GREENS (N1) and GUNTER / WEIN (N2) have moved up to JUNIOR, but Caroline Green is too young for the JGP.

So, at least one to GUNTER / WEIN.

That still leaves 3 unfilled slots.

Maybe they could be given to newly formed teams, or teams that didn't make it out of Sectionals????

I guess we won't know until after the Lake Placid event which teams will get the remaining slots.

But it doesn't look to me as if M/C and P/P are denying opportunities to young teams. Indeed, if M/C and P/P had moved up, the US would be hard pressed to fill those 14 slots and would have dismal results on the JGP this year. And that would have put enormous pressure on Carreira/Ponomarenko to bring home the medals.

The bottom line is there are plenty of opportunities FOR TEAMS WHO REMAIN TOGETHER!!!! Many of these ice dancers change partners after every Nationals, hoping to find that magic combination. But they never take the time to mesh and grow.

 

[Jammers]

Who are they taking spots away from? The US has 14 JGP slots, and M/C and P/P will take up 4 of those. 10 slots remain


Of the other 12 teams from 2016 Nationals:

BIECHLER / DODGE (JR5) and POGREBINSKY / BENOIT (JR3) have moved up to senior.
DAY / LEAHY, who skated the JGP last year, but WD from Nationals, have split
The BECKERS (JR8) apparently have split (she has outgrown him)
Also split:
EFIMOVA / MacMILLAN (J9) - she has reteamed with Sasha PETROV
GROSUL / COLUCCI (J10)
TAKAI / MARTIN (J11) - she is skating Senior for Canada with Dominic BARTHE
ADDAS / SCHULTZ (J12) - she has reteamed with Michael VALDEZ

Of the remaining teams from 2016 Nationals, who will get those 10 slots?
CARREIRA / PONOMARENKO (JR4) and LEWIS / BYE (JR6) got 2 slots each last year and will get the same this year.
GROPMAN / SOMERVILLE should get 2 events instead of the one they got last year.

4 slots remain.

Of the Novices, the GREENS (N1) and GUNTER / WEIN (N2) have moved up to JUNIOR, but Caroline Green is too young for the JGP.

So, at least one to GUNTER / WEIN.

That still leaves 3 unfilled slots.

Maybe they could be given to newly formed teams, or teams that didn't make it out of Sectionals????

I guess we won't know until after the Lake Placid event which teams will get the remaining slots.

But it doesn't look to me as if M/C and P/P are denying opportunities to young teams. Indeed, if M/C and P/P had moved up, the US would be hard pressed to fill those 14 slots and would have dismal results on the JGP this year. And that would have put enormous pressure on Carreira/Ponomarenko to bring home the medals.

The bottom line is there are plenty of opportunities FOR TEAMS WHO REMAIN TOGETHER!!!! Many of these ice dancers change partners after every Nationals, hoping to find that magic combination. But they never take the time to mesh and grow.

I'm only talking about M/C moving up. The Parsons could have stayed another season on the JGP and been the anchor for the Junior Ice Dance US teams. And in 2017 the younger teams are going to have to go it alone since M/C and the Parsons FINALLY age out of Juniors.

 

[chuckm]

In 2017 the Greens will be ready for the JGP and Carreira/Ponomarenko should be one of the leaders.

My point was there WEREN'T any teams being deprived of opportunities by M/C staying Junior. Half of the Junior teams from last year split.

 

[cheerknithanson]

Who knows? We might not know if M/C and/or the Parsons are staying juniors or moving to seniors until after Lake Placid. Like there could be other factors that's making it hard.

 

[tulosai]

Who knows? We might not know if M/C and/or the Parsons are staying juniors or moving to seniors until after Lake Placid. Like there could be other factors that's making it hard.

My main thought is they probably stayed junior for financial reasons, unfortunately, since by winning everything in juniors they will get a lot more prize money than by moving to seniors and winning nothing; however that's the situation they'll be in next year anyway so they are only delaying the inevitable as well as delaying the point when they could potentially be winning things (and making at least some money) in seniors, and skating's so terribly expensive that it's even unlikely they'll be able to save much if any of the money they win this season to assist in future seasons anyway.

 

[chuckm]

M/C aren't going to be in the mix for the 2018 Olympics, so there's really no reason to rush the move up to Senior. The first year is Seniors is a tough one anyway---this way they can fly under the radar next year, as all the attention will be on the established teams vying for Olympic berths. Then they will enter their sophomore Senior season when many of the top-rated teams will have retired and there's room to move up the ranks.

 

[Princessroja]

M/C aren't going to be in the mix for the 2018 Olympics, so there's really no reason to rush the move up to Senior. The first year is Seniors is a tough one anyway---this way they can fly under the radar next year, as all the attention will be on the established teams vying for Olympic berths. Then they will enter their sophomore Senior season when many of the top-rated teams will have retired and there's room to move up the ranks.

Not to mention that they will have a much better shot at 4CC/worlds next year because of all the Olympic teams narrowing their focus to Olympics only.

 

[tulosai]

M/C aren't going to be in the mix for the 2018 Olympics, so there's really no reason to rush the move up to Senior. The first year is Seniors is a tough one anyway---this way they can fly under the radar next year, as all the attention will be on the established teams vying for Olympic berths. Then they will enter their sophomore Senior season when many of the top-rated teams will have retired and there's room to move up the ranks.

The thing is I'm not as convinced as some people seem to be that many of the top US teams are going to retire after the 2018 Olympics. I think it will depend somewhat on the results there but the truth is all of them could realistically stick around for another cycle. 5 of the 6 top ice dancers in the USA currently would be 30 or under in 2022- Bates is the only one who wouldn't, and he'd be 32, which for a dancer isn't impossible by any stretch of the imagination. It's hard to believe since they've been on the scene for so long but Maia Shibutani is only 21 currently. Barring injuries, any or all of these three couples absolutely could continue.

 

[chuckm]

Alex Shibutani, Madison Hubbell and Zak Donohue were all born in 1991, which would make them 31 in 2022. I doubt any of them would consider sticking around for another Olympic cycle. Alex Shibutani has asthma, which has made competition difficult for him at times, so I don't think he would continue for even one season past 2018, regardless of Maia's youth. And Madison Hubbell has had to have hip surgery, so she may not want to further stress her body beyond 2018.