2016-2017 Grand Prix selections

[Mrs. P]

I like this idea in theory, but scores are so messy from one competition to another that I think that it wouldn't work well in practice. X lady from Skate Canada might be in trouble because of how strict the tech was there, while X lady from another event might benefit from a more generous tech panel/judges.

But yeah, I definitely see how, for example, it might be nice if it was up to Nathan Chen or Jason Brown to "earn" that three spots for the men THIS season, since neither of them were at Worlds last season. We had fewer healthy contenders last season and came thisclose to keeping three spots, and now that there are MORE healthy contenders (god willing, etc) we are down to two.

Also, fingers crossed that Mariah Bell makes it to NHK. Is it up to Japanese fed to pick who they want? If so, they have some real strategizing to do.

Japan will likely give it to another US lady since USFSA invited three Japanese Ladies to Skate America.

Last season, when Jason Brown W/D from NHK due to his injury -- about two weeks before -- they invited Grant Hochstein, which gave him a second event. I think Mariah has a very good chance to get the spot, which would be great cause it would give her a shot at GPF.

 

[Arriba627]

Would really LOVE to see Mariah get the NHK spot! :hap57:

 

[Crossover]

I highly doubt they will invite Mariah this time because the field is so deep as with the 11 participants; Miyahara, Higuchi, Pogorilaya, Sotskova, Nagasu, Tursynbaeva, Chartland, Leonva. Japan already invited the 3 US ladies, so there is no obligation for them to invite another US lady again by increasing a risk for one of their host picks, Wakaba Higuchi to face another foreign podium challenger. Even if Mariah fails to repeat her cleanish performance at NHK after Skate America, it also can increase a chance for their another host pick, Yura Matsuda to fail to get a ranking point. I think they either won't fill in the vacant slot or invite a lesser-tiered skater unlikely to place their local stars in danger.

 

[andromache]

I highly doubt they will invite Mariah this time because the field is so deep as with the 11 participants; Miyahara, Higuchi, Pogorilaya, Sotskova, Nagasu, Tursynbaeva, Chartland, Leonva. Japan already invited the 3 US ladies, so there is no obligation for them to invite another US lady again by increasing a risk for one of their host picks, Wakaba Higuchi to face another foreign podium challenger. Even if Mariah fails to repeat her cleanish performance at NHK after Skate America, it also can increase a chance for their another host pick, Yura Matsuda to fail to get a ranking point. I think they either won't fill in the vacant slot or invite a lesser-tiered skater unlikely to place their local stars in danger.

If I was Japanese Fed, I would wait until after this weekend to make a decision, to see how Sotskova and Wakaba do in France. Wakaba isn't super consistent, so if she blows her shot at GPF in France, send Mariah to NHK. She's no threat to someone with Satoko's consistency and some hometown excitement assisting with PCS, and she's someone who has the potential to place above Maria and Anna (if Anna makes a lot of mistakes). If I was Japan, I'd do what I could to lessen the chances of more Russian ladies making the final and take my chances with the American ladies.

If Wakaba still has a fighting shot at GPF after France, don't send Mariah. She's too much of a threat to Wakaba.

 

[Mrs. P]

Has JSF been that overly concerned with whether foreign skaters can beat their host skaters? I don't get that sense from them. But then again, maybe they weren't concerned before they always had a pretty strong singles contingent, so perhaps they would be more apt to start caring more.

ON the other hand, Japanese skating fans are hard core and fought (with a lottery) to get tix to NHK Trophy -- it would be in in their best interest from an audience to invite Mariah Bell an up-and-coming US skater.

I just know that in previous practice -- JSF has replaced a US skater who withdraws with another US skater.

But hey what do I know?

 

[Crossover]

I just know that in previous practice too. Kaetlyn didn't get invited to NHK in 2012 after wining Skate Canada, one year before the Olympic season. This year, pre-Olympic season and many on GS have screamed for home inflation about every single GP event so far.

Even if Japan has only one skater eligible for GPF, which means Satoko, earning a medal is important to their local skaters before the Olympic season. If Wakaba fails to get a medal at France, that doesn't mean that Japan throws hope that Wakaba earns a medal at home. She is pretty consistent domestically.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I like this idea in theory, but scores are so messy from one competition to another that I think that it wouldn't work well in practice. X lady from Skate Canada might be in trouble because of how strict the tech was there, while X lady from another event might benefit from a more generous tech panel/judges.

Well that is how it is now for skaters getting/needing minimum TES. All skaters who go to worlds now have to get the minimum for their country to send them and that can very from comp to comp. Kevin Reynolds tried to get the minimum TES between nationals and worlds last year but did not... in theory a more liberal tech panel could have meant he got it. Javiar Raya tried to get the minimum TES for both 2015 and 2016 worlds. For 2016 he got it and got to go, but for 2015 he was not able to attend worlds even though Spain had the spot because he did not have the minimums. A different tech caller could have made the difference there.

So while yes it is an issue, it is an issue we already are dealing with and facing.

 

[chuckm]

As great as Mariah was at SA, let's face it: she is NOT known for consistency. And the trip from the US to Japan involves huge jet lag. I think the Japanese fed hasn't that much to fear from replacing Polina with Mariah.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Mariah is scheduled for Tallinn Trophy the same week as NHK... so who knows what will happen there.

 

[karne]

Last season, when Jason Brown W/D from NHK due to his injury -- about two weeks before -- they invited Grant Hochstein, which gave him a second event. I think Mariah has a very good chance to get the spot, which would be great cause it would give her a shot at GPF.

?

Brendan was Jason's replacement at NHK - and he got two days' notice.

 

[Mrs. P]

?

Brendan was Jason's replacement at NHK - and he got two days' notice.

Yeah, I mixed things up a little--- Grant Hochstein was a replacement, but for Joshua Farris (sorry karne, to bring back bad memories). So part of my argument does not apply.

Still the fact that JPN was willing to get Brendan in just two days before, means they are more likely to fill it then not. This isn't hte FFSG we're chatting about here.

Anyway for reference:

29-Sakhanovich (RUS), SA
33-Choi (KOR), SC
42-Kim (KOR), SC
45-Kato (JPN)
47-Olsson (SWE) --
52-Meite (FRA), TEB
53-Bell (USA) -- SA
54- Weinzierl (GER)
55- Glenn (USA)
56- PERVUSHKINA (RUS)


Russia and Japan are maxed out on entries. Still a lot of different options, including Bell...

 

[Nathan13]

As great as Mariah was at SA, let's face it: she is NOT known for consistency. And the trip from the US to Japan involves huge jet lag. I think the Japanese fed hasn't that much to fear from replacing Polina with Mariah.

This is true, but also, let's be honest, she's not really widely known for anything. She is a completely different skater under Raf, and while she wasn't consistent in the Senior B's, she has never had the confidence of a GP silver medal. That, combined with her much improved technique, could equal a new found consistency or competitive drive. I have hope.

 

[karne]

Yeah, I mixed things up a little--- Grant Hochstein was a replacement, but for Joshua Farris (sorry karne, to bring back bad memories). So part of my argument does not apply.

Still the fact that JPN was willing to get Brendan in just two days before, means they are more likely to fill it then not. This isn't hte FFSG we're chatting about here.

I thought for a minute that maybe I had muddled things up

To be fair, they kind of lined up all the holes in the Swiss cheese to get Brendan. He'd already done well at his first GP so he was pretty high on the alternates list, his coach was already going to be present at NHK because of Ricky, and he was already flying to that side of the globe for Australian Nationals anyway.

But I have to say, while people might think it looks great to have a full field, that was a really rough pair of competitions for Brendan, and I think it might be better to not replace within the last week than to replace on two days' notice.

 

[el henry]

This is true, but also, let's be honest, she's not really widely known for anything. She is a completely different skater under Raf, and while she wasn't consistent in the Senior B's, she has never had the confidence of a GP silver medal. That, combined with her much improved technique, could equal a new found consistency or competitive drive. I have hope.

I'm afraid I disagree that Raf is the end-all, be-all and reason for *technical* improvement in Mariah. She had not been there for three months, (ETA: at SA) which is scarcely long enough for such dramatic improvement. That, and my firm belief that two stellar programs from Rohene Ward are as much (more) to do with Mariah's success this year than any other factor.

That said, Mariah may feel psychologically better at Raf's, I have no clue. Her consistency has always been the issue. And if Raf has the tools to fix that, good for him. But, as much as I think the Japanese audience would love her and she should go to NHK, coaching change alone does not support that.

 

[eta]

Mariah is scheduled for Tallinn Trophy the same week as NHK... so who knows what will happen there.

Time conflict then? The ISU Tallinn Trophy doesn't seem to have a specific schedule.

Anyway for reference:

29-Sakhanovich (RUS), SA
33-Choi (KOR), SC
42-Kim (KOR), SC
45-Kato (JPN)
47-Olsson (SWE) --
52-Meite (FRA), TEB
53-Bell (USA) -- SA
54- Weinzierl (GER)
55- Glenn (USA)
56- PERVUSHKINA (RUS)

Russia and Japan are maxed out on entries. Still a lot of different options, including Bell...

I'm hoping one of the Korean ladies get invited, do they train in Korea?

 

[Ice Dance]

Athletes who get late assignments to GP events generally drop a conflicting Senior B. It not unusual.

 

[TGee]

The ISU has posted an updated GP entry list for Men...

http://static.isu.org/media/1007/gp_men_16-11-09.pdf

Runqi Liu of China has been added [as a host pick] to the Cup of China

 

[Mango]

The ISU has posted an updated GP entry list for Men...

http://static.isu.org/media/1007/gp_men_16-11-09.pdf

Runqi Liu of China has been added [as a host pick] to the Cup of China

But no replacement for Daisuke Murakami?!

 

[TGee]

But no replacement for Daisuke Murakami?!

Not as yet....and Japan does not have a male skater with only one GP. If they have a Japanese skater with sufficient TES that they would like to invite, one would have thought that he would have been added at this update/

I really am feeling all the more strongly that host federations should be obliged to fill the spots for withdrawals up to a certain number of days before the event. I'm sharing the view that the number of unfilled spots at the Cup of France is edging on disgraceful.

Kevin Reynolds is sitting 8th in the GP standings, and 10th in the current SB standings. But as it stands now, he will not have a second GP event. His is exactly the kind of comeback from injury scenario that substitutions should consider in my view.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2016/gpsmen.pdf

So, I've been wondering if Japan might be willing to be gracious and invite Kevin. Given the option to leave the place unused, the consideration would be how it would affect Japanese national team members.

Uno's GP Final spot is secure, and Yuzu with 13 points and a higher podium place than Kevin at SC, I suspect Yuzu would not be viewed as being put at risk by inviting Kevin. Perhaps there is a view that Tanaka could be on the podium, but his PB is 234.9 and his current SB is 224.91. With Kolyada and Bychenko there, Tanaka is a very long shot at a bronze. Adding Kevin would make it more competitive.

Lasty, adding Kevin would put 3 Canadian men at the event [Nam and Elladj are already listed], but the US has been given 3 entries as it now stands...

 

[Ares]

Not as yet....and Japan does not have a male skater with only one GP. If they have a Japanese skater with sufficient TES that they would like to invite, one would have thought that he would have been added at this update/

I really am feeling all the more strongly that host federations should be obliged to fill the spots for withdrawals up to a certain number of days before the event. I'm sharing the view that the number of unfilled spots at the Cup of France is edging on disgraceful.

Kevin Reynolds is sitting 8th in the GP standings, and 10th in the current SB standings. But as it stands now, he will not have a second GP event. His is exactly the kind of comeback from injury scenario that substitutions should consider in my view.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2016/gpsmen.pdf

So, I've been wondering if Japan might be willing to be gracious and invite Kevin. Given the option to leave the place unused, the consideration would be how it would affect Japanese national team members.

Uno's GP Final spot is secure, and Yuzu with 13 points and a higher podium place than Kevin at SC, I suspect Yuzu would not be viewed as being put at risk by inviting Kevin. Perhaps there is a view that Tanaka could be on the podium, but his PB is 234.9 and his current SB is 224.91. With Kolyada and Bychenko there, Tanaka is a very long shot at a bronze. Adding Kevin would make it more competitive.

Lasty, adding Kevin would put 3 Canadian men at the event [Nam and Elladj are already listed], but the US has been given 3 entries as it now stands...

I remember when Pechalat / Bourzat (?) were competing in 3 Grand Prix events in one season but for additional one they could not receive any points for GPF. Maybe they can find some non-Japanese skater eligible & willing?

I'd also really like to watch Mariah in NHK Trophy.