2016-2017 Ladies Cumulative Average Scores

[Daniel1998]

I thought it might be interesting to see who among the current ladies' field has the best cumulative average scores throughout the 2016-2017 season, and compare this to the eventual results at the World Championships- maybe we can see how big the correlation is between your overall score consistency and your result at the World Championships. I will update the post after Worlds with the real standings and bump the post up so we can look for any interesting things.

I will add a few notable skaters who aren't going to Worlds, just for the sake of thoroughness, and I will also exclude results from Nationals, since the scores earned there are usually an anomaly, but I will include all ISU Challenger events assuming I can find scoring information. Tell me if you like this kind of post, and if there's other "average" scores you're interested in, like Average PCS.

***SORRY IF I HAVE NOT INCLUDED YOUR FAVOURITE SKATER. Once Worlds are over I will add people I should have, that did well at Worlds, to the original post and update the projections so everybody can compare.***

Skater (# of competitions, Average SP, Average LP, Average Total)

RUS
Evgenia Medvedeva (4 | 78.22 | 146.67 | 224.89) *excludes Japan Open
Anna Pogorilaya (5 | 72.53 | 134.81 | 207.34) *excludes Japan Open
Maria Sotskova (5 | 67.63 | 127.87 | 195.50)
Elena Radionova (4 | 70.17 | 126.56 | 196.73) *includes Universiade #no Worlds berth
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (7 | 64.55 | 117.33 | 181.89) *includes Universiade #no Worlds berth

JPN
Wakaba Higuchi (4 | 63.27 | 119.42 | 182.69) *excludes Japan Open
Mai Mihara (4 | 65.96 | 126.56 | 192.52)
Satoko Miyahara (4 | 68.54 | 135.25 | 203.79) *excludes Japan Open
Rika Hongo (5 | 61.97 | 108.44 | 170.41) *includes AWG #no Worlds berth
Mao Asada (3 | 63.54 | 111.23 | 174.78) #no Worlds berth

USA
Mariah Bell (5 | 59.05 | 117.41 | 176.46)
Karen Chen (5 | 55.75 | 112.73 | 168.47)
Ashley Wagner (2 | 66.93 | 121.98 | 188.91) *excludes Japan Open !small sample
Mirai Nagasu (5 | 62.86 | 115.68 | 178.53) #no Worlds berth
Gracie Gold (3 | 57.93 | 111.78 | 169.71) *excludes Japan Open #no Worlds berth

CAN
Kaetlyn Osmond (5 | 71.00 | 126.27 | 197.27)
Gabby Daleman (4 | 66.40 | 121.36 | 187.76)
Alaine Chartrand (4 | 57.78 | 116.97 | 174.75) #no Worlds berth

CHN
Li Zijun (4 | 61.06 | 115.66 | 176.72)
Zhao Ziquan (3 | 53.80 | 94.01 | 147.81) *includes Universiade #not confirmed for Worlds

KAZ
Elizabet Tursynbaeva (6 | 58.30 | 109.64 | 167.94)

KOR
Choi Dabin (7 | 55.10 | 112.79 | 167.89) *includes AWG, Asian Trophy
Kim Nahyun (5 | 55.30 | 97.55 | 152.86) *excludes 4CC where she withdrew #out of Worlds with injury
Park Soyoun (5 | 56.74 | 102.12 | 158.86) #out of Worlds with injury

ITA
Carolina Kostner (3 | 69.07 | 134.61 | 203.68) !small sample

SVK
Nicole Rajicova (4 | 56.24 | 110.21 | 166.45)

LAT
Angelina Kuchvalska (5 | 50.67 | 92.13 | 140.80) *excludes 2 minor competitions whose scores I can't find

FRA
Laurine Lecavelier (6 | 60.24 | 111.78 | 172.03) *excludes MNNT Cup whose scores I can't find

ARM
Anastasia Galustyan (4 | 55.01 | 96.63 | 151.64) *excludes MNNT Cup whose scores I can't find

GER
Nicole Schott (4 | 53.91 | 97.77 | 151.68) *excludes NRW Trophy whose scores I can't find

PROJECTED 2017 WORLDS STANDINGS BASED ON AVERAGE SCORES

1. Evgenia Medvedeva (78.22 | 146.67 | 224.89)
2. Anna Pogorilaya (72.53 | 134.81 | 207.34)
3. Satoko Miyahara (68.54 | 135.25 | 203.79)
4. Carolina Kostner (69.07 | 134.61 | 203.68)
5. Kaetlyn Osmond (71.00 | 126.27 | 197.27)
6. Maria Sotskova (67.63 | 127.87 | 195.50)
7. Mai Mihara (65.96 | 126.56 | 192.52)
8. Ashley Wagner (66.93 | 121.98 | 188.91)
9. Gabby Daleman (66.40 | 121.36 | 187.76)
10. Wakaba Higuchi (63.27 | 119.42 | 182.69)
11. Li Zijun (61.06 | 115.66 | 176.72)
12. Mariah Bell (59.05 | 117.41 | 176.46)
13. Laurine Lecavelier (60.24 | 111.78 | 172.03)
14. Karen Chen (55.75 | 112.73 | 168.47)
15. Elizabet Tursynbaeva (58.30 | 109.64 | 167.94)
16. Choi Dabin (55.10 | 112.79 | 167.89)
17. Nicole Rajicova (56.24 | 110.21 | 166.45)
18. Nicole Schott (53.91 | 97.77 | 151.68)
19. Anastasia Galustyan (55.01 | 96.63 | 151.64)
20. Zhao Ziquan (53.80 | 94.01 | 147.81)
21. Angelina Kuchvalska (50.67 | 92.13 | 140.80)

ACTUAL 2017 WORLDS STANDINGS
TBD

 

[Mango]

Interesting analysis! Will see how much the results match up. I think the small sample size skaters and the inconsistent skaters will create some interesting results.

Though 1 question: Has Sotskova really not been confirmed for Worlds? She's done well enough, I'd think...

 

[Daniel1998]

Interesting analysis! Will see how much the results match up. I think the small sample size skaters and the inconsistent skaters will create some interesting results.

Though 1 question: Has Sotskova really not been confirmed for Worlds? She's done well enough, I'd think...

I don't know, to my knowledge the Russian Fed hasn't announced their team yet. Her subpar free skate at Europeans may give the Russian Fed food for thought, though I agree she should be going to Worlds.

 

[4everchan]

you will get one more chance to add to kostner's sample... she's doing another international series this weekend i think????

 

[chuckm]

Kostner is competing at the Nordics Open.

None of these ladies has a big enough sample size for an average to have any real significance.

 

[narcissa]

Kostner is competing at the Nordics Open.

None of these ladies has a big enough sample size for an average to have any real significance.

But if it holds, goodbye 3 spots for everyone except Russians and Japanese ladies...

 

[4everchan]

But if it holds, goodbye 3 spots for everyone except Russians and Japanese ladies...

well well... one russian will be out... so if it stayed like that, Canada would be at 14 points... not far from gaining 3.... looking who is ahead of Osmond is a big question mark... would CK score that high when competing against everyone with no lutz?

and looking ahead of gabby is another question mark.... how is ashley doing? she didn't do so well at nationals.... she had a disastrous last gp....

OF course, ice is slippery for everyone, so no need to reply that Osmond and Daleman may end up much lower as well... that's a given.

and for canada, it wouldn't be goodbye 3 spots.... i can't even remember last time we had 3 spots... and we certainly didn't deserve it because we didn't have 3 good ladies. Right now, I believe only Russia deserves it but that's just my humble opinion... (I think Japanese ladies are transitioning and some of them have had huge issues this year).

 

[lyverbird1]

Great thread, thanks for this. Whereas I acknowledge it would be pretty tough on Maria not to go to Worlds, I will openly admit to a personal bias and state that I'd love to see Elena go, especially given I'll be in Helsinki!

 

[moriel]

Great info =)
A cool info to add would be the variance of each value. Or, for example, highest and lowest score, to give an idea of what the skater can do.
For instance, how that table changes if everybody skates their best sp and best fs?
(sorry, dropped some ladies because lazy)

Evgenia Medvedeva 79.21 150.79 230.00
Satoko Miyahara 74.64 143.69 218.33
Anna Pogorilaya 74.39 143.18 217.57
Kaetlyn Osmond 75.54 136.91 212.45
Carolina Kostner 72.4 138.12 210.52
Elena Radionova 71.93 135.15 207.08
Maria Sotskova 72.17 133.05 205.22
Mai Mihara 68.48 134.34 202.82
Gabby Daleman 72.7 128.66 201.36
Ashley Wagner 69.5 126.94 196.44
Wakaba Higuchi  66.66 129.46 196.12
Mariah Bell 61.21 130.67 191.88
Choi Dabin 61.62 126.24 187.86
Elizabet Tursynbayeva 66.87 119.45 186.32
Li Zijun 63.89 117.94 181.83
Karen Chen 58.76 121.11 179.87



And if they skated their worst both in SP and FS?
Evgenia Medvedeva 76.24 143.02 219.26
Carolina Kostner 69.95 126.28 196.23
Satoko Miyahara 64.2 126.84 191.04
Elena Radionova 68.98 119.83 188.81
Mai Mihara 63.11 122.44 185.55
Anna Pogorilaya 69.5 113.3 182.80
Maria Sotskova 61.58 120.35 181.93
Ashley Wagner 64.36 117.02 181.38
Kaetlyn Osmond 64.73 115.96 180.69
Gabby Daleman 60.15 115.25 175.40
Wakaba Higuchi  58.83 112.2 171.03
Li Zijun 58.65 111.08 169.73
Mariah Bell 55.92 105.14 161.06
Karen Chen 51.5 101.03 152.53
Choi Dabin 48.01 94.29 142.30
Elizabet Tursynbayeva 48.33 78.73 127.06

 

[xeyra]

Great info =)
A cool info to add would be the variance of each value. Or, for example, highest and lowest score, to give an idea of what the skater can do.
For instance, how that table changes if everybody skates their best sp and best fs?
(sorry, dropped some ladies because lazy)

Evgenia Medvedeva 79.21 150.79 230.00
Satoko Miyahara 74.64 143.69 218.33
Anna Pogorilaya 74.39 143.18 217.57
Kaetlyn Osmond 75.54 136.91 212.45
Carolina Kostner 72.4 138.12 210.52
Elena Radionova 71.93 135.15 207.08
Maria Sotskova 72.17 133.05 205.22
Mai Mihara 68.48 134.34 202.82
Gabby Daleman 72.7 128.66 201.36
Ashley Wagner 69.5 126.94 196.44
Wakaba Higuchi  66.66 129.46 196.12
Mariah Bell 61.21 130.67 191.88
Choi Dabin 61.62 126.24 187.86
Elizabet Tursynbayeva 66.87 119.45 186.32
Li Zijun 63.89 117.94 181.83
Karen Chen 58.76 121.11 179.87



And if they skated their worst both in SP and FS?
Evgenia Medvedeva 76.24 143.02 219.26
Carolina Kostner 69.95 126.28 196.23
Satoko Miyahara 64.2 126.84 191.04
Elena Radionova 68.98 119.83 188.81
Mai Mihara 63.11 122.44 185.55
Anna Pogorilaya 69.5 113.3 182.80
Maria Sotskova 61.58 120.35 181.93
Ashley Wagner 64.36 117.02 181.38
Kaetlyn Osmond 64.73 115.96 180.69
Gabby Daleman 60.15 115.25 175.40
Wakaba Higuchi  58.83 112.2 171.03
Li Zijun 58.65 111.08 169.73
Mariah Bell 55.92 105.14 161.06
Karen Chen 51.5 101.03 152.53
Choi Dabin 48.01 94.29 142.30
Elizabet Tursynbayeva 48.33 78.73 127.06

So even at her worst, Evgenia is still better than anyone else's best, according to this. Holy consistency!

 

[moriel]

So even at her worst, Evgenia is still better than anyone else's best, according to this. Holy consistency!

yup, well, Satoko and Anna at their best may be a threat if Evgenia bombs, because the gap would small and there could be some "not clean" x "perfect" performance boost.
But still.

Satoko is also impressive.

Also, its interesting how some skaters would actually do better if everybody bombs: for example, Mai Mihara would be #8 if everybody skated their best, and #6 if everybody bombed.
Same for Kostner - her medal chance is that everybody bombs including herself =P

 

[SnowWhite]

The other thing with Satoko is how she is health wise. I read in the Japanese ladies thread (I think it was that one) that she might not be 100% but she'll be there. It could cause her problems if there's a harsh tech panel.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Skater Boy]

yup, well, Satoko and Anna at their best may be a threat if Evgenia bombs, because the gap would small and there could be some "not clean" x "perfect" performance boost.
But still.

Satoko is also impressive.

Also, its interesting how some skaters would actually do better if everybody bombs: for example, Mai Mihara would be #8 if everybody skated their best, and #6 if everybody bombed.
Same for Kostner - her medal chance is that everybody bombs including herself =P

I think in the past that is in part how Kostner did so well = if she made errors others made bigger errors lol.

 

[Ares]

I think in the past that is in part how Kostner did so well = if she made errors others made bigger errors lol.

Not quite so, Carolina won few medals in the past after bombing due to ginormous PCS. Her rivals skated two almost clean programs but sill lacked points to edge her out.

 

[ioanna]

The other thing with Satoko is how she is health wise. I read in the Japanese ladies thread (I think it was that one) that she might not be 100% but she'll be there. It could cause her problems if there's a harsh tech panel.

That's true but she wasn't 100% at GPF or Nationals either. The symptoms of the fracture showed up in December. All the more impressive.

 

[Daniel1998]

Updated original post with Kostner, Liza, and Laurine's results this past weekend.

No changes in the projected standings- Kostner's total average score went up 0.3 points, bringing her close to Satoko, and Laurine went down by around 2 points. Liza went down around a point.

Next week is the last one with competition before Worlds, and Hongo and Kuchvalska will be participating at the Coupe de Printemps in Luxembourg. I don't imagine they'll have an impact on the standings though, so these are for all intents and purposes the final average standings before Worlds. (I CAN'T WAIT)

 

[Osmond4gold]

Moriel, some of these Worst scores as you stated, occurred in October when not all were competing. So the data, while correct does not favour skaters who competed earlier in the season. Example Kaetlyn's Worst score was achieved at Finlandia, an event which she won, over Mao an Pogo, with a score of 180 and change. These skaters competed first in the season, when scores are traditionally lower, and indicative of where skaters at a point in time. A skater like Ashley, did not participate at these events, so their seasons worst/best, do not kick in until later in the season, after extra practices, fitness & endurance, and the benefit of time.

The scores comparisons, are not relevant to the conversation and should be excluded from any data collection. IMO.

 

[chuckm]

Counter to your argument, Osmond4Gold, Kaetlyn's worst performance was at 4CC, an event where scores tend to be inflated. Kaetlyn scored 184 and change, a big drop from her GP and GPF scores.

 

[Mango]

:think: 2017 4CC scores were not inflated.

At least, compared to 2015 Grand Prix Final and 2016 Worlds.

 

[Osmond4gold]

Kostner is competing at the Nordics Open.

None of these ladies has a big enough sample size for an average to have any real significance.

Which then gives Kaetlyn the 4th best and 6th worst, which seems consistent, statistically speaking, chuckm.