2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[Jammers]

Back then, Polina's biggest problem was her programs and packaging. She did have some rotation problems but, so did Mirai. I'm sure I missed part of this conversation but, Ashley's the one who was held up that year not Polina.

Mirai also skated terribly a couple weeks later at 4CC and finished 10th against a weak field and didn't even score 160 points showing that sending her to the Olympics for having just one decent competition all season would have been a mistake.

 

[frida80]

What about Kaitlyn Nguyen or Ashley Lin? After Emmy, Kaitlyn has the next best international SB currently amongst the ladies who competed at JGP, so it seems unlikely that Hanna or Ting would displace her (Kaitlyn) as a JW contender when their JGP scores have been ~10 points lower. But without a 3-3, I don't see Emmy breaking the 180 point mark, so if she were to get a senior Nats podium, it would require a real meltdown from all of the Mirai / Karen / Mariah trifecta

Kaitlyn just changed coaches and that has impacted her performance. Kaitlyn was fourth at sectionals with a 139.51. Way behind Starr and Tessa who scored 186 and 181 respectively. Ashley was also fourth, but with a 151.31.

Traditionally USFS ignores international scores for JW placements and puts the highest age eligible scorers from seniors. Unless the junior champ really out scores the seniors. This seldom happens.

 

[ice coverage]

Mirai also skated terribly a couple weeks later at 4CC and finished 10th against a weak field and didn't even score 160 points ...

You neglected to give the context that Mirai was ill at 2014 Four Continents.

Posts from Jan 25 - 29, 2014:

Too bad Mirai was sick at 4CCs but she did well to stay on her feet during both programs. ...

What illness did Mirai have at 4CCs?

She caught the flu after Nationals, recovered, and then caught Norovirus in Taipei.

 

[college pat]

mirai has just a good of chance as the other skaters.

all i am going to say is this if the skater wanted to be more secure of their standing for their nationals, olympics.

The skaters knew what they suppose to do, finish, skate and score.

I don't know if they did it or not, by how the USFSA will name the team.

but myself the way i think the u.s. ladies skated during the season.
they didn't put themselves in great standing. or secure themselves, or impress.

whether mirai will go or not, mirai had a chance to make her case?

did ashley make her case?
did karen make her case?
did bradie make her case?
did caroline make her case?
did angela make her case?
did emma make her case?
did polina make her case?

it seems like we are discussing who should go if left off the podium at nationals.
only 1 or 2 skaters possibly qualified for that, even than i am not sure.

that what is seems like not who would make the podium, but discussing if off who would go.
i don't know--to be continued later this month /early next month

 

[geige]

The difference is the suggestion that Mirai should have been sent [to Olympics and/or Worlds] because she was the more experienced skater and would have placed better over a newbie at the Senior level.

The reality is that the newbie at the Senior level in actuality placed better than the more experienced skater. Also, at Worlds 2014, after the Olympics, Edmunds was 8th, and she was 8th at 2015 Worlds as well.

As far as the scores go, here is how that breaks down:

Edmunds: 61.04 + 122.21 = 183.25
Nagasu: 65.74 + 120.91 = 186.65

In the SP, both skaters got their 3/3 UR

Edmunds: 3z+3t<, 3f, 2a Edmunds was 7th with a TES of 32.98 and a PCS of 28.06
Nagasu: 3z+3t<, 3lo, 2a Nagasu was 10th with a TES of 34.73 and a PCS of 31.01

Note that the value of the 3lo was upgraded after the 2014 Olympics.
Note also that Edmunds took a "newbie hit" in her PCS score

Here are the FS stats:

9 EDMUNDS 122.21 (63.02+60.19) 7.54 7.29 7.57 7.61 7.61 1.00 3z+3t, 3f+lo+3s, 2a, 3f<↓, 3z, 3lo+2t, 2a

11 NAGASU 120.91 (60.97+59.94) 7.57 7.21 7.50 7.50 7.68 0.00 3f!+3t+2t, 3z<, 3s, 2a+3t, 3lo+2t, 3lo<, 2a

Even with a fall, Polina got higher TES and PCS than Mirai because of Mirai's URs. Polina's PCS may have been held down because she was a newbie, but Mirai's were also held down because she executes her freeskate rather than performing it, despite her extensive experience.

Ok well thanks for bringing in some numbers to make your point but also, Mirai wasn’t even in competition shape for that Worlds. She was called in as an alternate a week before, having last competed at Four Continents a month and a half prior. Which means she was a month and a half into the offseason. What she did was pretty impressive, considering the circumstances.

Anyway, the point still stands that Mirai had a higher overall score.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

What's most sad is that, on a thread dedicated to US women in 2017-18 and in the thick of an Olympic season, we spend more effort arguing about a mildly controversial decision from 2014 than discussing the current crop of women. It's a bit depressing after watching the GPF and the JGPF to see how poorly our ladies match-up to the international field.

 

[schizoanalyst]

What's most sad is that, on a thread dedicated to US women in 2017-18 and in the thick of an Olympic season, we spend more effort arguing about a mildly controversial decision from 2014 than discussing the current crop of women. It's a bit depressing after watching the GPF and the JGPF to see how poorly our ladies match-up to the international field.

The collapse of American’s women’s skating is especially sad because around 2016 and into early 2017 we looked like we were finally recovering from a drought. Wagner, Gold, Chen, Bell looked like (at various different times) they were either possible medal contenders or could at least achieve high placements with great skates. And then they all just collapsed. And now it looks like Bradie Tennell, a decent skater but not particularly remarkable, is our best hope? Sheesh.

 

[Amei]

What's most sad is that, on a thread dedicated to US women in 2017-18 and in the thick of an Olympic season, we spend more effort arguing about a mildly controversial decision from 2014 than discussing the current crop of women. It's a bit depressing after watching the GPF and the JGPF to see how poorly our ladies match-up to the international field.

Well when the current crop of ladies perform better and are competitive on the international scene then they'll get talked about more....the 2 hour recap of the GPF is on NBC I wonder if they will even show much of the Ladies since there aren't any Americans.

Honestly right now would any of us say that given this situation - every skater skating their best - is there a US lady who we would say she's a lock for winning the gold or silver medal??

 

[frida80]

Well when the current crop of ladies perform better and are competitive on the international scene then they'll get talked about more....the 2 hour recap of the GPF is on NBC I wonder if they will even show much of the Ladies since there aren't any Americans.

Honestly right now would any of us say that given this situation - every skater skating their best - is there a US lady who we would say she's a lock for winning the gold or silver medal??

Gold or silver for what? The Olympics? Sheesh... It's been well known all season that the gold and silver belong to Zhenia and Alina. Everyone else is fighting for that bronze. And it looks like Maria Soskova may have that locked down as well.

A better question is how can we better compete against the Eteri ladies in the future. They've got everyone in the world out matched.

 

[klutzy]

If one accepts klutzy's ersatz (IMO) extrapolation, Mirai would have placed above Polina at the 2014 Olympics.

(Obviously am not disputing that at 2014 Nats, newbie senior Polina placed better than the more experienced Ashley and the more experienced Mirai.)

What's "ersatz" about it? Be specific. That, by the way, is another example of an ad hominem attack by you. There's nothing artificial about the comparison. You keep trying to be dismissive of the points I'm making by using loaded language.

However, comparing scores, instead of placements, across competitions is a dicey matter. Lombardia scores this year, for example, were inflated. NHK less so. Doesn't mean the skating was better at Lombardia.

But the main point I'm making is that Polina performed well enough that it wasn't a mistake to send her to the Olympics. IF Mirai had gotten second at Nationals, I would say the same thing about her. Though, ironically, the huge advantage Polina has had over the experienced Mirai is that Polina handles competition pressure better. It's a damn shame about her injury and slow recovery. We could use good old consistent Polina.

Polina outperforming Mirai isn't a one-time thing--as Chuckm points out, she's done it numerous times. One of those times was 2014 Nationals.

 

[skatefan17]

The sad part about the discussions over American ladies is that it doesn't matter who they send, because I don't see any American cracking the top 5, and maybe only one or two cracking top 10. They aren't competitive so it doesn't matter who they send. End of story.

 

[brightphoton]

Ah, I thought so. Thanks for digging that up and confirming.

Ah, good ol' pre-commentator Tara. Being supportive and everything.

 

[geige]

The sad part about the discussions over American ladies is that it doesn't matter who they send, because I don't see any American cracking the top 5, and maybe only one or two cracking top 10. They aren't competitive so it doesn't matter who they send. End of story.

Does this mean that it’s also irrelevant to discuss the selection of literally any country except 3 of them or maybe 4? When did the importance of the Olympics only get reduced to the top 5 ranked skaters?

 

[klutzy]

Gold or silver for what? The Olympics? Sheesh... It's been well known all season that the gold and silver belong to Zhenia and Alina. Everyone else is fighting for that bronze. And it looks like Maria Soskova may have that locked down as well.

A better question is how can we better compete against the Eteri ladies in the future. They've got everyone in the world out matched.

They do, and yet, as a viewer, I don't love how they skate--it's the backloading and cluttered choreography designed to rack up points. Zagitova's stamina is amazing, but I'd rather watch Kaetlyn Osmond big, beautiful jumps. I love Miyahara's flow.

In other words, is the Russian dominance about superior skating or knowing how to design and train for programs under the current system? If it's the latter, does this system develop and reward the kind of skating programs we want to see? One of B.ESP's commentators mentioned that Sotskova raised her arm for a lot of jumps, but while the raised arm made the jump more difficult, it was actually ugly to look at. (Medvedeva's tanos are more balletic.)

 

[brightphoton]

Does this mean that it’s also irrelevant to discuss the selection of literally any country except 3 of them or maybe 4? When did the importance of the Olympics only get reduced to the top 5 ranked skaters?

This could be a blessing in disguise. If there is no medal threat from the American ladies, then we can enjoy their performances for what they are, 6.0 style
Not whether they got 200 points or level 4 that or tanoed that jump or transitioned that.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

In other words, is the Russian dominance about superior skating or knowing how to design and train for programs under the current system?

The rules are the same for everyone. The reason everyone isn't doing it is because backloading is hard. Whatever the rules are, it is likely that the same skaters would be at the top because the most talented will find ways to take advantage of any scoring system. Even with backloading and tanos, Evgenia and Alina are beatable because neither are getting +3 for their jump elements. The problem is that none of the women can skate clean LPs with stronger jumps. If Kaetlyn or Gabby could do all their jumping passes as well as their 3-3 combos, their scores would rival the Russians.

 

[ice coverage]

What's "ersatz" about it? Be specific. That, by the way, is another example of an ad hominem attack by you. There's nothing artificial about the comparison. You keep trying to be dismissive of the points I'm making by using loaded language.

However, comparing scores, instead of placements, across competitions is a dicey matter. Lombardia scores this year, for example, were inflated. NHK less so. Doesn't mean the skating was better at Lombardia.

But the main point I'm making is that Polina performed well enough that it wasn't a mistake to send her to the Olympics. IF Mirai had gotten second at Nationals, I would say the same thing about her. Though, ironically, the huge advantage Polina has had over the experienced Mirai is that Polina handles competition pressure better. It's a damn shame about her injury and slow recovery. We could use good old consistent Polina.

Polina outperforming Mirai isn't a one-time thing--as Chuckm points out, she's done it numerous times. One of those times was 2014 Nationals.

"Ersatz" is not a personal attack against you.

It is an expression of my disagreement with your rationalizations. (IMO, they are rationalizations.)

As I have said, I don't see any relevance in a comparison of 2014 Olympics results to 2016 Worlds results -- whether placements or scores.

But if you are insistent on comparing those two comps, then is a difference of one place (Polina's ninth place vs. Mirai's tenth) really a solid indication of any superiority?? Not for me. Means as little to me as Mirai's slight edge in terms of score.
And your original post regarding those two comps pointedly made note that Mirai's placement was lower.
If what you really meant is that the placements were similar, why did you not say so?

And your first post in this conversation said that Mirai should have skated well to get to the Olympics -- as Polina did.
At 2014 Nats, Mirai was within three points of Polina.
If Polina did "skate well" at 2014 Nats, I don't see some kind of clear demarcation that Mirai did not "skate well."
No question that Polina outscored Mirai -- but I don't agree that a three-point difference is grounds for emphatically declaring that one lady "skated well" and another did not.

AFAIK, the only major competitions at which Polina and Mirai have gone head to head are three years of U.S. Nats. (No international comps, AFAIK?)
And yes, Polina has been ahead each of those years at Nats.
But IMO, the only year of Nats that was relevant to the Sochi decision was 2014.
As I said from the beginning, I did not have a problem with the Sochi decision.
But I don't agree that if the selection committee were choosing btwn Polina and Mirai, the choice would have been a no-brainer in Polina's favor. There would have been a case to be made for Polina. There would have been a case to be made for Mirai.
The committee decided to go with Gracie, Polina, and Ashley. I did not and do not have a problem with the decision. But I do object to insinuations that it should/would have been unthinkable for the selection committee to give Mirai consideration in its decision-making process.

 

[ice coverage]

The sad part about the discussions over American ladies is that it doesn't matter who they send, because I don't see any American cracking the top 5, and maybe only one or two cracking top 10. They aren't competitive so it doesn't matter who they send. End of story.

I absolutely hate :dev2: this kind of callous comment -- that "it doesn't matter who they send."

The decision as to whom USFS will send does matter very much to the three ladies who will be sent -- and to the other ladies who will have to stay home.
Whether or not the chosen three have any chance of placing in the top five or top ten.

No doubt that Karen, Mariah, Bradie, and others have been dreaming for years of representing the U.S. at the Olympics. And have been pouring blood, sweat, and tears (not to mention $$$) into getting there.
Ashley has been dreaming for four years of representing the U.S. again at the Olympics. And has been pouring blood, sweat, and tears (plus $$$) into getting there.
Mirai has been dreaming for eight years of representing the U.S. again at the Olympics. And has been pouring blood, sweat, and tears (plus $$$) into getting there.

Dreams are going to come true, and dreams are going to get dashed. The decision as to whom USFS will send does matter to a group of athletes who have devoted themselves to a sport that supposedly we all love.
I care about these individual human beings, so the decision does matter to me as a fan as well.
Again, whether or not the chosen three have any chance of placing in the top five or top ten.

 

[AshWagsFan]

Tbh, if Ashley or Bradie doesn’t pull through in Korea for the US, I think the rest of the ladies will be so hungry and work very hard over the next Olympic cycle to put themselves back into the conversation among the Russians and Japanese

 

[FSLover17]

Have Ashley, Bradie, Karen etc. said whether they're planning to stay another Olympic cycle? I know Mirai said that she's not going to think about that now (https://youtu.be/P4WlMw_WTIQ?t=639) but have any of the others mentioned anything?