2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[andromache]

But even then people have factual basis for that angry/negative reaction. You may not agree with the wording/the tone, but the underlying concern is there. It's best to just respond the claim at face value and not attack the person for having that opinion or the way they stated that opinion(even if you don't like the tone).

(Besides...insulting other posters is against guidelines anyway. )

I find that stating an opinion as objective fact while simultaneously bashing the accomplishments of hard-working skaters and implying that anyone who believes otherwise is wrong to be disrespectful and non-conducive to interesting discussion. The implication that Nathan or Adam or Jason or whoever else has only achieved what they have due to the evil USFS unfairly propping them up over poor, unfortunate more deserving skaters is pretty farcical.

It's tough seeing your favorites get beat. But sometimes someone else earns it. As we get closer and closer to Nationals and Olympic/World team selection, the bitter rhetoric is probably only going to increase, which is a shame.

Anyway, back to actually talking about the US men - Adam needs to go back to training the 4T asap. The faux-4Lz isn't doing him any favors - with that, he's just another US man without a quad, which makes Jason his direct competition - and Jason has a huge advantage on skating skills, and is just about on par with Adam in every other category (spins included). IMO, Adam can only set himself above Jason if Adam has a real quad, and that's assuming that Jason doesn't also get a real quad in the meantime (by "real" quad, I mean rotated and landed in competition more than once - quads in practice are great, but that's not when the judges are scoring you).

I like Jason and Adam about equally - but I think Jason looks like the stronger choice, and is likely to look like the stronger choice by Nationals.

 

[Mrs. P]

I find that stating an opinion as objective fact while simultaneously bashing the accomplishments of hard-working skaters and implying that anyone who believes otherwise is wrong to be disrespectful and non-conducive to interesting discussion. The implication that Nathan or Adam or Jason or whoever else has only achieved what they have due to the evil USFS unfairly propping them up over poor, unfortunate more deserving skaters is pretty farcical.

It's tough seeing your favorites get beat. But sometimes someone else earns it. As we get closer and closer to Nationals and Olympic/World team selection, the bitter rhetoric is probably only going to increase, which is a shame.

Anyway, back to actually talking about the US men - Adam needs to go back to training the 4T asap. The faux-4Lz isn't doing him any favors - with that, he's just another US man without a quad, which makes Jason his direct competition - and Jason has a huge advantage on skating skills, and is just about on par with Adam in every other category (spins included). IMO, Adam can only set himself above Jason if Adam has a real quad, and that's assuming that Jason doesn't also get a real quad in the meantime (by "real" quad, I mean rotated and landed in competition more than once - quads in practice are great, but that's not when the judges are scoring you).

I like Jason and Adam about equally - but I think Jason looks like the stronger choice, and is likely to look like the stronger choice by Nationals.

Hey, I agree with your premise. Just giving a friendly reminder it may be better to keep the person out of it and report the post if you feel it's breaking guidelines. I tend to ignore the rhetoric anyway.

My understanding with Adam is that he's doing the 4Z at the moment cause he can't really train the 4T due to his injury. So he might not have a choice at this point. I think Jason is close. Reading his recent interview with IN, it seems like a complete mental thing at this point, rather than he can't physically do it. I remember at U.S. Nationals in 2013 he pretty much missed all his 3A attempts and then hit all three of his 3A attempts a month later at junior worlds. I won't be surprised to see if he can land at least one of the 4T or 4S as the season progresses.

Also I'd say that looking at PCS scores, Jason is starting to widen the gap. We'll have a better idea at NHK where they will be competing face to face, but Jason got a 91 at Lombaria vs. Adam's 86 at Finlandia. Even if you say Jason should have not push 90 and Lombarida PCS were hyper inflated, he probably still has at least a small gap.

 

[TontoK]

A question on the Olympic team selection: assuming that Nathan will go (barring total disaster) and that he is in contention for an individual medal, do you think that the federation will have him skate in both the SP and LP events for the team competition or, as it seems more reasonable, they will try to save him for the big day? In the second case, who would be, as of now (I know, a bit premature before even GP season), the best candidate for a team medal shot? Do you think that these considerations will impact on the selection of the 3 mens at Nationals?

This is an interesting question! Here is my guess.

Nathan will skate one program in the team competition, and here's why:

Team USA will almost certainly medal if Nathan skates both or not - and it will almost certainly NOT be a gold medal, whether he skates both or not.

The US pair will have to skate twice in the team event, and my guess is that a US lady will also skate twice (and that lady will not be Ashley). The men and the dancers will split duties.

 

[Tavi...]

USFS does give certain skaters the benefit of the doubt and other skaters always have to be clean to get the same "love." It happens at the lower levels as much as with the upper levels and both with the men and ladies. To not see that, you are wearing some foggy glasses.

I grant that sometimes it is much easier to overlook when your own fav gets the benefit which turns into tiny "extras" that are added together can effect final placement. But it is real.

That may be, but I'd say the reverse is equally true. Most of us have a hard time being fully objective about "our" favorite skater; we focus on what we love about him, and minimize or overlook his weaknesses. We may not see the difference in what he is doing and what his competitors are doing. We may feel he should be rewarded for working hard and making improvements, and fail to recognize that though he has improved, he still has a long way to go. In other words, sometimes we blame our favorite skater's results on favoritism because we fail to see him objectively.

 

[TontoK]

This is an interesting question! Here is my guess.

Nathan will skate one program in the team competition, and here's why:

Team USA will almost certainly medal if Nathan skates both or not - and it will almost certainly NOT be a gold medal, whether he skates both or not.

The US pair will have to skate twice in the team event, and my guess is that a US lady will also skate twice (and that lady will not be Ashley). The men and the dancers will split duties.

Expanding on this: I think Canada is a HEAVY favorite for gold in Team. Russia and USA will get the other medals.

Skaters from two disciplines will have to skate twice if I remember correctly. US pair will have to be one of those, since we can only send one pair.

I think they give Nathan a taste of Olympic ice by having him skate one of the team programs. He gets a taste, but doesn't get overly used up.

The US dancers are tightly bunched so that it won't matter how they split those, the placements will probably be the same.

The ladies skate last, so more recovery time for the lone US lady skating Team. I don't think it will be Ashley, because she's "been there, done that" in terms of team, and objectively speaking, her recovery time would be greater. A younger skater will get her Olympic medal on team.

 

[karne]

This is totally false. I was there. Adam Rippon absolutely did deserve the National title. Everyone in the audience knew it. A majority of the judges agreed.

You mean everyone in the audience agreed that a guy who fell on his backside and UR'd multiple jumps should have been the almost-perfect, fully-rotated, only-one-tiny-error guy? It just proves the point then about the double standard. I can guarantee you, if that had been the other way around - if Max had been the one falling on his butt and getting gifts from the TP on rotations and beat Adam - the uproar would have been tremendous. Instead, it's only Max, eh? So it's fine...

Funny how the Rippon fans are quick to hush up problematic judging in 2016 when they were so busy howling about how their man was "robbed" in 2015 (when he wasn't).

And yeah, I'm upfront about it. I'm more than scared. I'm terrified that we'll get to the end of San Jose and Max will again have that heartbroken expression on his face which he tries to cover with a smile as he hugs the teammates who are going, and I'm terrified he will have done everything the USFS have demanded of him and more and still get screwed over, and I'm terrified that some stupid marshmallow tech panel will suddenly overlook certain other skaters' URs and gift them points they should not have over Max. That Max will be punished for actually rotating his jumps. And I'm terrified that at the end of this season he will smile and wave and then go off to do something else and I will never see him skate again. And he will never have had what he earned, what he deserved, because the USFS could never make up its mind on what they wanted, and he was always the one screwed with whenever they changed their minds.

 

[Mrs. P]

Expanding on this: I think Canada is a HEAVY favorite for gold in Team. Russia and USA will get the other medals.

Skaters from two disciplines will have to skate twice if I remember correctly. US pair will have to be one of those, since we can only send one pair.

I think they give Nathan a taste of Olympic ice by having him skate one of the team programs. He gets a taste, but doesn't get overly used up.

The US dancers are tightly bunched so that it won't matter how they split those, the placements will probably be the same.

The ladies skate last, so more recovery time for the lone US lady skating Team. I don't think it will be Ashley, because she's "been there, done that" in terms of team, and objectively speaking, her recovery time would be greater. A younger skater will get her Olympic medal on team.

I actually think the race for bronze will actually be much tighter with China. China has top notch pairs and we could potentially lose a lot of points there and Boyang Jin could beat Nathan and whoever else we send in the men's event. Our ID teams are superior and our ladies are a question mark relative to China's ladies (i.e. Li Xijun). So it could end up being close.

 

[andromache]

Expanding on this: I think Canada is a HEAVY favorite for gold in Team. Russia and USA will get the other medals.

The US dancers are tightly bunched so that it won't matter how they split those, the placements will probably be the same.

1. I think you're underestimating Russia. B/S aren't fantastic, but as the clear #1 Russian dance team, they have enormous political backing. Ladies, goes without saying. T/M are a solid, consistent pair, and if S/K are healthy, I'd put them down to skate a clean SP. The "wild card" are the men. I would have Canada and Russia about even for team gold. Both countries will, I imagine, have a difficult time picking and choosing which disciplines will have two entrants and which will have one. Especially Canada - the strongest Canadian team would be V/M, PChan, Kaetlyn (neither she nor Gabby are very good LP skaters though, which makes splitting it between them NOT the ideal), and D/R. But in two disciplines, they'll have to choose a weaker skater to carry some of the load. Gabby will skate the LP, I imagine (give Kaetlyn a rest since she's an individual medal hopeful), and probably have I/M skate a program, too.

Team Russia - have B/S and Kolyada skate both programs, and then Evgenia/Alina and T/M / S/K split the programs. But this only works if S/K are healthy and looking strong - if not, it'll be Kolyada sharing with whoever is Russian man #2 at the time (or maybe Plushenko comes back and skates both programs?).

I ultimately think the team competition will come down to PChan versus Kolyada in terms of who implodes least.

Is there a team analysis thread? That's obviously what I want to discuss.

As for US men - give Nathan the SP and Jason (who I 100% believe will be on the Olympic team) the LP.

I'm also interested to see what Japan does with its men. I imagine both Shoma and Yuzu would prefer not to be involved in the team event at all. The easy thing to do would be to split the event, but I imagine that Japanese Fed lets Yuzu do whatever he wants.

2. I will be so, so sad for whichever US dance team doesn't get to skate for the team. No team medal for one incredibly fabulous

 

[andromache]

You mean everyone in the audience agreed that a guy who fell on his backside and UR'd multiple jumps should have been the almost-perfect, fully-rotated, only-one-tiny-error guy? It just proves the point then about the double standard. I can guarantee you, if that had been the other way around - if Max had been the one falling on his butt and getting gifts from the TP on rotations and beat Adam - the uproar would have been tremendous. Instead, it's only Max, eh? So it's fine...

Funny how the Rippon fans are quick to hush up problematic judging in 2016 when they were so busy howling about how their man was "robbed" in 2015 (when he wasn't).

Where is the "howling" about 2015? It's 2017, right? Don't people move on? I imagine both Adam and Max have (Adam's fans have too, apparently, as I see no howling on their end).

I think the judging could've gone either way in both years, FWIW. But neither win is less legitimate just because it was a close competition. A different panel or tech specialist and the results could've been different, but hey, that's figure skating. (In the case of 2016, not only could it have easily gone to Max instead of Adam, but even to Nathan - three completely different skaters earning points in completely different ways.)

 

[Mrs. P]

Where is the "howling" about 2015? It's 2017, right? Don't people move on? I imagine both Adam and Max have (Adam's fans have too, apparently, as I see no howling on their end).

I think the judging could've gone either way in both years, FWIW. But neither win is less legitimate just because it was a close competition. A different panel or tech specialist and the results could've been different, but hey, that's figure skating. (In the case of 2016, not only could it have easily gone to Max instead of Adam, but even to Nathan - three completely different skaters earning points in completely different ways.)

To be fair, there were people who did take issue that Jason won with no quad (and a wonky UR 3A in the FS) vs. Adam's 4Zs (even if you though they were UR)

 

[mrrice]

To be fair, there were people who did take issue that Jason won with no quad (and a wonky UR 3A in the FS) vs. Adam's 4Zs (even if you though they were UR)

2015 was a weird year for me. After Joshua's "Give Me Love" I really thought he had that event in the bag. To be fair, all 3 of the Men who medaled were fantastic and it could have gone to any one of them. That was a really well skated event and I hope this years Nationals is just as exciting.

 

[andromache]

2015 was a weird year for me. After Joshua's "Give Me Love" I really thought he had that event in the bag. To be fair, all 3 of the Men who medaled were fantastic and it could have gone to any one of them. That was a really well skated event and I hope this years Nationals is just as exciting.

IIRC, the gold would've been Josh's i not for a zayak in the LP.

 

[lappo]

I actually think the race for bronze will actually be much tighter with China. China has top notch pairs and we could potentially lose a lot of points there and Boyang Jin could beat Nathan and whoever else we send in the men's event. Our ID teams are superior and our ladies are a question mark relative to China's ladies (i.e. Li Xijun). So it could end up being close.

This is very true but we have to keep in mind that pairs are the first event after the team competition and I don't see S/H skating both programs there when they are so in the run for gold (not that the other pairs aren't superior to the Americans, but still, some point of difference could be gained there). The other question mark is whether they will let Jin skate both events or have the men split (do they even have a skater other than Han?)? I think the American ladies could place higher than Zijun and the ID most certainly will. But I agree that there will be battle for the podium.

 

[karne]

To be fair, there were people who did take issue that Jason won with no quad (and a wonky UR 3A in the FS) vs. Adam's 4Zs (even if you though they were UR)

Including Adam himself, who rolled his eyes at the camera when Jason's scores were announced and proceeded to retweet multiple tweets critical of Jason's win.

IIRC, the gold would've been Josh's i not for a zayak in the LP.

Yes, this was before the rule change, when the whole pass was lost, instead of just the Zayaked jump.

 

[Blades of Passion]

You mean everyone in the audience agreed that a guy who fell on his backside and UR'd multiple jumps should have been the almost-perfect, fully-rotated, only-one-tiny-error guy? It just proves the point then about the double standard. I can guarantee you, if that had been the other way around - if Max had been the one falling on his butt and getting gifts from the TP on rotations and beat Adam - the uproar would have been tremendous.

Max didn't make only "one tiny error" at 2016 Nationals - doubling a triple jump loses many points and in addition to that he had no Triple Flip, awkwardly doing only double axels in the later part of his program. There is a gigantic difference between the performance and choreographic quality of Rippon and Max. The scores don't come down to simply jumps (and Rippon did not UR multiple jumps either - his second lutz was within 1/4 and we can talk about it more in detail if you want). Of course the uproar would be tremendous if Max had won without better jumps - because the jumps are the ONLY thing Max has in his skating to put him ahead of the other guys.

Max shouldn't have even been 2nd in 2016. Nathen Chen outjumped him. Frankly none of the guys deserved to win the 2016 title with the performances they put out. Nathan made history in the LP by being the first guy to land 4 clean quads in a program, but failed on the axel and skated through the music with totally uninteresting choreography and dead faced performing. Max had 2 "clean" programs, but nothing beyond that. His jump content wasn't competitive enough with all the PCS detriments he had. Rippon had the best artistry by far and I can forgive him the quad lutz mistake, but his SP was disappointing. Still, in the end he was the most "satisfying" winner of a disappointing Nationals.

 

[Ice Dance]

Is there a team analysis thread?

Yes. There was a relatively long & detailed thread this spring/summer; but I can't find it now. Then there is a short one on p.2 of The Edge, but it seems to be all about North & South Korea. However, there is also a link to this third thread, which I haven't been following, but at first glance looks like it is the most active discussion of the team event right now:

https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?63206-2018-Pyeongchang-Team-Event-Points-Table

 

[el henry]

El, dear friend, this reads as very defensive to me.

I never said that Jason had been held up.

I merely mentioned that Vincent's FS placement could be a sign that nobody would be held up if someone else beat them on merit on the day.

Neither Vincent nor Adam were really clean in their performances, but they were certainly better than Jin or Kolyada, and the judges placed them higher in that aspect of the competition. That's encouraging.

If I read an intent into yours or others posts, Tonto, my apologies. But it is an occupational hazard that when I see someone say “this year”, my immediate thought is “and didn’t it happen in other years?”:scratch3:

This year, as in all previous years, the young guns shall be judged fairly. They shall not be held back, because they were never held back, and they shall not wait their turn, because they were never asked to wait their turn. Good for them, and may the best skater win!:agree:

Also (and this is not directed at you, my friend, just jumping off to another subject), I don’t understand how being one skater or another skater’s fan is *in and of itself* a reason to discredit arguments. To go off on a tangent maybe five people will understand, I am a Philly native and I love our Iggles. So many Eagles fans traveled to Charger stadium, a six hour plane ride away, that the team said it was like playing home. We are also harshly critical when disappointed. We have our own nickname, “Boobirds”. And right now I’m riding the WentzWagon:clapper: but I’ll jump off the minute he tanks.

OK, gridiron off -topic over. All this to say, that I don’t understand “well, you say that because you’re a Jason fan”. Well, you betcha I’m a Jason fan, but I say it because I see it with my own two eyes. And maybe I’m wrong and maybe I’m right, but fangirling isn’t the issue....

 

[skylark]

I find that stating an opinion as objective fact while simultaneously bashing the accomplishments of hard-working skaters and implying that anyone who believes otherwise is wrong to be disrespectful and non-conducive to interesting discussion. The implication that Nathan or Adam or Jason or whoever else has only achieved what they have due to the evil USFS unfairly propping them up over poor, unfortunate more deserving skaters is pretty farcical.

:agree:

My understanding with Adam is that he's doing the 4Z at the moment cause he can't really train the 4T due to his injury. So he might not have a choice at this point.

That's my understanding as well. The last thing I heard Adam say was that the plan was to begin training the 4T after his Challenger event. That makes sense. His next competition is NHK, IIRC, so he's got a good long stretch of six weeks or so before it.

I hope that his foot has sufficiently healed to be able to go ahead with that plan. :yay:

 

[skylark]

I'm more than scared. I'm terrified that we'll get to the end of San Jose and Max will again have that heartbroken expression on his face which he tries to cover with a smile as he hugs the teammates who are going, and I'm terrified he will have done everything the USFS have demanded of him and more and still get screwed over, and I'm terrified that some stupid marshmallow tech panel will suddenly overlook certain other skaters' URs and gift them points they should not have over Max. That Max will be punished for actually rotating his jumps. And I'm terrified that at the end of this season he will smile and wave and then go off to do something else and I will never see him skate again. And he will never have had what he earned, what he deserved, because the USFS could never make up its mind on what they wanted, and he was always the one screwed with whenever they changed their minds.

Gosh. That's a horrifying amount of terrified to feel. My sympathies.

 

[Jaana]

I'm terrified that we'll get to the end of San Jose and Max will again have that heartbroken expression on his face which he tries to cover with a smile as he hugs the teammates who are going, and I'm terrified he will have done everything the USFS have demanded of him and more and still get screwed over, and I'm terrified that some stupid marshmallow tech panel will suddenly overlook certain other skaters' URs and gift them points they should not have over Max.

I think a big difference is that this season Max has great programs that really suit him. His PCS will rise if he manages to be successful in his programs including the quads during GP-season. And following that at US Nationals he will definitely have a big chance now, in my opinion. All depends on his own skating and jumping. He is a great jumper, me just must do what he can do, because the jumping must be totally faultless!!!