Phil Hersh's observations/predictions one month into the season.
"1. Adam Rippon, the 2016 U.S. champion, had a thoroughly respectable and encouraging showing in his first competition since a broken foot sidelined him before last January’s nationals.
Yet his skating at last weekend’s Finlandia Trophy showed again that Rippon, like U.S. teammate Jason Brown, still lacks the big points jumps to be a medal contender in global championships.
Rippon finished a very close third overall to Jin Boyang of China and Vincent Zhou of the U.S. mainly because Jin imploded in the free skate and Zhou in the short program. Rippon was second to Zhou in the free skate, but his technical score was 16.12 lower than Zhou’s and 8.58 lower than Jin’s, even though free skate winner Zhou singled an axel and Jin had four under-rotated jumps and two falls.
Rippon tried one quad (fell on an under rotated lutz). Zhou got full base value on four quads (three clean). Jin tried four and got full base value on two.
And, like it or not, the way the sport is scored today, the points from such jumps are lot to overcome, unless you are Carolina Kostner (see below.) Gaining from others’ imperfections can only take you so far.
2. Chen and Zhou, 1-2 at last year’s U.S. Championships, are nearly sure bets for two of the three U.S. men’s singles spots in the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics – Chen, 18, for obvious reasons; Zhou, who turns 17 this month, because he also represents the future of U.S. men’s skating and would benefit from Olympic experience. In a subjective selection process with amorphous criteria, that (and Zhou’s ability to land multiple quads) gives him an advantage, should everything else be nearly equal.
That would leave Max Aaron, 25, Rippon (28 next month), and Brown (23 in December) in a battle for the final spot."
"3. As I tweeted early last week, I can easily see Mirai Nagasu adding a U.S. title to the one she took in 2008. "
"9. And don’t be surprised if the U.S. wins no figure skating medal at this Olympics, a shutout that has not happened since World War II."