2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Tavi...]

Based on his recent Senior B, Sergei Voronov could potentially have an impact at both those events. At NHK, Jason and Adam also will face Dmitri Aliev. Nothing's a given.

Has Patrick Chan officially withdrawn from NHK or is that still just a rumor?

 

[frida80]

Has Patrick Chan officially withdrawn from NHK or is that still just a rumor?

He has.

 

[musicfan80]

It’s crazy how things may turn differently for the Olympic team selection after a couple of GPs.

It’s quite tough now for Max and Vincent to win a medal here in China. On the other hand, with Patrick’s withdraw from NHK, Jason and Adam are likely to win silver and bronze. Then Adam can win another medal at Home.

It's a damn shame that Joshua Farris (likely) isn't going to be competing at all this season. But even if he had somehow made it back to Nationals, he wouldn't have an international score to qualify for even 4CCs, anyway. :sad21:

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't have a good feeling about how well Adam will do this season. And that was before the shoulder injury.

Max needs to have the skate of his life if he's going to get on the team. Especially if Adam and Jason skate well in Japan. Nathan is a lock and even if Max stays ahead of Vincent, I don't think he'll get on the team if can't pull himself up in the free program. What those numbers don't show is Mikhail's giant score of 103.13. Javi is in third and his score is 90.57. Max has a big hill to climb if hopes to make the team.

I've assumed that Max has had to be insanely good this fall in + skate a great SP and LP at U.S. Nationals in order to go to the Olympics. I guarantee you, if Max's jumps are anywhere off, the U.S. will slam his PCS scoring as well. He typically doesn't have close to the quality that skaters like Jason have.

 

[karne]

Max has always had zero margin for error at any time. As soon as he makes one error, his scores drop like a stone. He doesn't get the buffer other skaters do.

But he certainly stayed on his feet last night, and the Salchow was great, just looked a touch nervous on the 4T, but got it done. And level 4 steps, too, for those who rag on him for that.

But now c'mon, admit it: nobody was expecting Tanaka to do that. Which probably skewed things a little. Still, I'd have had Fernandez behind Tanaka, but Max closer to Tanaka as well. Only three points above Vincent's splat-fest is not really okay.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Only three points above Vincent's splat-fest is not really okay.

Well, Vincent still landed an excellent quad-triple combo, and tried the two hardest quads (axel excluded obvs) whereas Max tried the two easiest - hence his BV was more than 5 points higher than Max.

It's not exactly like Max went clean himself. Max also had issues with his 3A hand-down/no preceding steps before the 4S/two-footed 4T with only a 2T (dropping his BV). Every jumping pass had -GOE. For 3 technical errors (including a doubled triple), 83 points isn't bad. He also got 2 points higher PCS than Zhou, so it's not like he got hosed there either.

 

[Seren]

I feel for Max, I really do. He has made some definite progress towards improving his program components. Unfortunately it seems he can never gain momentum. He had a relatively clean skate and is behind Vincent who landed a beautiful combination but fell twice. Max's style of skating just isn't as rewarded in the current system. He has to medal at US Nats for a shot at the team.

 

[Mrs. P]

Huh? Max is in 5th and Vincent is in 8th.

 

[ice coverage]

Just thought I'd drop this in here before I went off to bed.

Men's SP results at CoC

5. Max AARON 83.11
7. Grant HOCHSTEIN 80.55
8. Vincent ZHOU 80.23

I feel for Max, I really do. He has made some definite progress towards improving his program components. Unfortunately it seems he can never gain momentum. He had a relatively clean skate and is behind Vincent who landed a beautiful combination but fell twice. ...

Seren, you are mistaken.

Max is not behind Vincent.

---

Nice photo of teammates Vincent, Grant, and Max at Cup of China (at the FS draw, I think):

https://m.weibo.cn/status/4170108689667818#&gid=1&pid=3​

Good luck to all :yay:.

---

... Nothing's a given.

:agree:

 

[Tavi...]

Even though Max is in 5th place, he’s only about 4 points behind Keiji and 7 points out of medal position. Vincent and Grant are only a few points behind Max. All three of them have the opportunity to make up ground tomorrow if they skate well. Will one of them medal? Maybe: the results at Skate Canada show that the unexpected sometimes does happen. Regardless, all three guys can show what they’re made of by doing their best in the free skate.

 

[Tavi...]

Congrats to Max on winning the freeskate and taking bronze in China! Also congrats to Vincent for a strong showing in his first GP. Both guys showed they’re real competitors.

Can I just say, I’m always flabbergasted by the PCS Grant gets. Yes he had a tough skate, but a lot of what he did was really beautiful - I think he was woefully undermarked.

 

[Mrs. P]

We also have medals in every color at GP so far: Gold (Nathan), Silver (Jason) and Bronze (Max). We have slightly better hardware than Russia, who has gold and two bronzes.

We may have two U.S. men in the GPF for the second year in the row! We'll see.

Anyway, chew on these numbers:

Top 5 SB Overall:
Nathan Chen: 293.79 (Rostelecom Cup)
Max Aaron: 261.56 (U.S. Classic)
Jason Brown 261.14 (Skate Canada)
Vincent Zhou 256.66 (Cup of China)
Adam Rippon 249.88

Top 5 SB SP
Nathan Chen: 100.54 (Rostelecom Cup)
Jason Brown: 90.71 (Skate Canada)
Max Aaron: 86.06 (U.S. Classic)
Adam Rippon 83.69 (Finlandia)
Alexander Johnson: 82.55 (Nebelhorn)

Top 5 SB FS
Nathan Chen 195.92
Jason Brown: 176.87
Max Aaron: 176.58
Vincent Zhou 176.43
Adam Rippon 166.19

 

[Mrs. P]

Also it's worth breaking down the 176+ scores

Jason Brown: 176.87
Max Aaron: 176.58
Vincent Zhou 176.43

TES:
Vincent 102.35
Max: 96.60
Jason: 85.07

BV:
Vincent: 104.27
Max: 90.18
Jason: 71.81

GOE:
Jason 13.26
Max: 6.42
Vincent: - 1.92


Jumps:
Vincent: 85.31 (UR on 4S+4Z) (BV: 89.67 -4.36)
Max: 77.82 (missing -3T combo) (BV:74.14 GOE: 3.68)
Jason: 61.15 (one 3S UR) (BV: 55.71; GOE: 5.44)


Spins
Jason: 14.1 (BV: 10.2 (all level 4) GOE: 3.9)
Max: 11.28 (BV: 10 (all level 4) GOE: 1.28)
Vincent: 10.44 (BV: 9.3 (1 level 3; 2 level 4) GOE: 1.14)


Step sequences:
Jason 9.82 (BV: 5.9 (level 4): GOE: 3.92)
Max 7.5 (BV: 5.9 (level 4): GOE: 1.6)
Vincent 6.6 (BV: 5.3 (level 3): GOE 1.3)


PCS
Jason: 91.80
Max: 79.98
Vincent: 75.08

Jason: Strengths: Strong execution (+GOE) and overall packaging (+15 point margin on PCS). Weakness: Obviously no ratified quad yet, so low BV, which means he has to be nearly perfect.
Vincent: Strengths: High scoring ceiling (high BV) gives room for mistakes = high TES. Weakness: Judges aren't yet impressed with his overall packaging; need work on non-jumping elements and overall execution.
Max: Strengths: Probably the most balanced of the three. He's been hitting his quads. Weakness: He's leaving points on the table by not including a 4-3 combo and leaving out the 3F; Program components still a work in progress. Spins and steps are improved, but still room for improvement.

Each of the men have clear strengths and weaknesses. The big question is who will best address their scoring holes when it's prime time?

 

[evasorange]

None of the US men are going to touch Nathan, that's just a given. But I am amazed at how good Jason Max and Vincent all have been in the Grand Prixs! They are all skating like they want it and it's soooo exciting! can't wait to see Adam!

 

[andromache]

I'm staying far away from the singles competition threads - but I hope karne is okay.

Anyway, congrats to Max!!! (God I'm so sad for Javi though.)

Here's hoping he can capitalize on this at his next event. Even if he can't make it to GPF, two GP medals would definitely make a case for him going into Nationals.

 

[mrrice]

None of the US men are going to touch Nathan, that's just a given. But I am amazed at how good Jason Max and Vincent all have been in the Grand Prixs! They are all skating like they want it and it's soooo exciting! can't wait to see Adam!

That's what I thought until Max Arron won the Free Program and pulled up to a medal they way he just did in China!! That's the kind of fight that will bring down the house at Nationals and if skates that again......Either Jason or Adam will be staying home. For Max to get up the free after being down if 5th place is something that Champions are made of.

Also something impressive for our Men was Vincent pulled up from 8th to place right behind Max in 4th. Both skaters defeated Javi and Han Yan..... Just a fantastic job by those two and I hope they're extremely proud of themselves. I did not see Grant perform but, it looks like things did not go as well for him as he ended up placing 9th. However the field was so deep that hopefully he'll gain from competing against these great skaters.

 

[Tavi...]

Also it's worth breaking down the 176+ scores

Jason Brown: 176.87
Max Aaron: 176.58
Vincent Zhou 176.43

TES:
Vincent 102.35
Max: 96.60
Jason: 85.07

BV:
Vincent: 104.27
Max: 90.18
Jason: 71.81

GOE:
Jason 13.26
Max: 6.42
Vincent: - 1.92


Jumps:
Vincent: 85.31 (UR on 4S+4Z) (BV: 89.67 -4.36)
Max: 77.82 (missing -3T combo) (BV:74.14 GOE: 3.68)
Jason: 61.15 (one 3S UR) (BV: 55.71; GOE: 5.44)


Spins
Jason: 14.1 (BV: 10.2 (all level 4) GOE: 3.9)
Max: 11.28 (BV: 10 (all level 4) GOE: 1.28)
Vincent: 10.44 (BV: 9.3 (1 level 3; 2 level 4) GOE: 1.14)


Step sequences:
Jason 9.82 (BV: 5.9 (level 4): GOE: 3.92)
Max 7.5 (BV: 5.9 (level 4): GOE: 1.6)
Vincent 6.6 (BV: 5.3 (level 3): GOE 1.3)


PCS
Jason: 91.80
Max: 79.98
Vincent: 75.08

Jason: Strengths: Strong execution (+GOE) and overall packaging (+15 margin on PCS). Weakness: Obviously no ratified quad yet, so low BV, which means he has to be nearly perfect.
Vincent: Strengths: High scoring ceiling (high BV) gives room for mistakes = high TES. Weakness: Judges aren't yet impressed with his overall packaging; need work on non-jumping elements and overall execution.
Max: Strengths: Probably the most balanced of the three. He's been hitting his quads. Weakness: He's leaving points on the table in execution; Program components need to go up.

Each of the men have clear strengths and weaknesses. The big question is who will best address their scoring holes when it's prime time?

Thanks for that breakdown! It shows that there are many ways to achieve similar results. I think it’s also important to note that (1) all three of these guys are strong competitors; and (2) all three of them achieved the results they did at least in part because other skaters messed up. That’s not to take away from their efforts - all of them competed well and put themselves in position to win or medal. But it can’t be denied that Jason benefited from Patrick’s uncharacteristic errors, and Vincent and Max benefited from mistakes by all three men who were ahead of them in the SP.

It will be interesting to see what each guy can achieve this season. All of them made errors that, if corrected, should increase their scores. Jason may or may not land the quad, but he can add at least 5 points in TES by not popping the loop and getting his levels - and his strong PCS is a huge advantage. Both Vincent and Max have an obvious TES advantage over Jason, and may well add more points by cleaning up landings, etc., but neither one is likely to achieve anything close to Jason’s PCS this season. So it will be interesting to see whether all three continue to be scored similarly or whether one pulls ahead of the pack. And of course, we haven’t seen Adam yet.

 

[ask]

Vincent is messy, which affects GOE and PCS. Once he cleans up a little bit, with that base value, he will score big in both PCS and GOE.

 

[Tavi...]

Vincent is messy, which affects GOE and PCS. Once he cleans up a little bit, with that base value, he will score big in both PCS and GOE.

Are you thinking that because of what happened with Nathan and Shoma? Because while I’m sure Vincent’s PCS and GOE will continue to improve, IMO it will take more than cleaning his programs up a little bit for them to skyrocket. He’s obviously a talented jumper; he’s accomplished a lot at a young age; he has a beautiful 4Z-3T; and he has a nice feel for the music. But he seems less dynamic - for lack of a better word - than either Shoma or Nathan. And I think both of those guys benefited from being among the first ones to rapidly push the technical envelope and force the “veterans” to up their tech scores: there seems to have been a “wow” factor there causing judges to award them high PCS in tandem with their TES. But now that high-TES programs are more common - and now that all the guys -including Nathan and Shoma - are really pushing to improve their presentation- I’m not sure that trend will continue. JMO.

 

[ask]

I think Vincent has a really bright future. He is Jr world champ. It´s pedigree right there. He´s also upping his TES. Yes, he´s messy. He still looks juniorish. GOE is still in the negative. Imagine he just clean up a little bit, he can add 10 more points to TES and at least 5 points to PCS. 190+ LP is going to be hard to beat.
Max is fighting for his chance and I think if he skates like this at Nats, he should be going to the Olympics as well.

My prefer team would be Nathan, Vincent, and Max.

 

[mrrice]

I think Vincent has a really bright future. He is Jr world champ. It´s pedigree right there. He´s also upping his TES. Yes, he´s messy. He still looks juniorish. GOE is still in the negative. Imagine he just clean up a little bit, he can add 10 more points to TES and at least 5 points to PCS. 190+ LP is going to be hard to beat.
Max is fighting for his chance and I think if he skates like this at Nats, he should be going to the Olympics as well.

My prefer team would be Nathan, Vincent, and Max.

After seeing Max's LP from China, and knowing how important quads will be at the Games.....I agree with this line up. As "Juniorish" as Vincent might look, he just beat Javi in China. When you add that to his Junior World Title he has put himself on the radar with the International Judges and that is huge. Outside the GPF, this is arguably the strongest field of Men at an GP. I am still in awe of how Max skated in Free Program. Phantom aside, his skating was powerful and mature. The choreography is spectacular and you can hear Max's improved edged quality during his footwork sequences. I was so impressed by both of these Men today.