2017 Worlds Men pre-event thread

[Li'Kitsu]

I would just like to say good luck Brian, hang in there, you can do it, we're counting on you!

Oh poor Brian I think it is time the poor man got his own medical team to check on him. Forget about the hair. That's a pipe dream by now.

That said, one prediction I feel comfortable making: Brians behind-the-boards performances will be glorious as always and deserve more GOE and praise than some of the things that happen on the ice

 

[Tavi...]

Posting this here again and adding the Europeans and Denis Ten. Some BVs were hard to calculate because the layouts in past competitions are always incomplete due to mistakes. The SP BVs are the only ones you can be surer about. Again, BVs are assuming all level 4s.

I'm also adding the season's best results for the SP for each contender; it's impossible to do the same for the FS since the layouts keep changing so much.

SP:
CHEN: 53.15 (SB 103.12)
JIN: 51.33 (SB 96.17)
UNO: 49.85 (SB 100.28)
HANYU: 49.75 (SB 106.53)
KOVTUN: 48.05 (SB 94.53)
FERNANDEZ: 47.75 (SB 104.25)
CHAN: 43.40 (SB 99.76)
TEN: 43.55 (SB 94.91)
KOLYADA: 43.30 (SB 90.28)
BROWN: 43.30 (SB 85.75)

FS:
CHEN: 111.43 (4CC layout; but that's if he doesn't replace a 4T with another 4F or 4Lz, goddamit kid)
JIN: 110.78 (4CC layout; will likely not change)
UNO: 104.64 (4CC layout; will likely not change, pls just find your Axels again)
HANYU: 103.43 (poss. alt. with 4Lo+3T: 105.08, because 4S-3T gives me nightmares)
FERNANDEZ: 95.13 (poss. alt. with 3Lz-3T-3Lo: 96.31-ish, idek)
CHAN: 92.76
KOLYADA: 87.96*
KOVTUN: 86.24*
BROWN: 83.09 (4CC layout with 4T; not sure if first 3A has bonus)
TEN: (no idea; he's only been in two competitions this season and his layouts were different in both; waiting on AWG)

* uncertain on layout

Some notes:
- 4 men have reached 100+ score in their SP this season: Chen (4CC 2017); Fernandez (Euros 2017); Hanyu (NHK Trophy 2016, GPF 2016); Uno (4CC 2017).
- 3 men have reached 200+ score in their FS this season: Chen (4CC 2017); Fernandez (Rostelecom Cup 2016); Hanyu (4CC 2017).
- 2 men have reached 300+ overall score this season: Chen (4CC 2017); Hanyu (NHK Trophy 2016, 4CC 2017).
- If no one splats too much, we have five 300+ potential scorers (Chan, Chen, Fernandez, Hanyu, Uno). Six with Jin, but he's usually held down by his PCS.

Nice work!

I would suggest that Jason is most likely to use his Skate America layout in the FS, which is substantially different than his 4CC layout. Depending on the state of his quad, he may also use the SA layout for the SP, but this is less sure (and since he got no credit for one spin you would need to add it to get correct BV).

 

[xeyra]

Nice work!

I would suggest that Jason is most likely to use his Skate America layout in the FS, which is substantially different than his 4CC layout. Depending on the state of his quad, he may also use the SA layout for the SP, but this is less sure (and since he got no credit for one spin you would need to add it to get correct BV).

I'll check that one out and put it as alternative BV in the list. Thanks!

Edit: Updated the post with the SA layouts, which actually give him higher BVs than I had previously.

 

[ranran]

I predict 1st,2nd,3rd scores to be above 300

 

[da96103]

While the goldenskate residents discussed merrily about the Worlds, an entity that threatens the competition had been chosen by the council.

MOHIR is buying its ticket to Helsinki online as we speak. It had a discussion with GRIM. It pities GRIM for not able to have any of the 13 quad meals by the medalists' FS at 4CC. But devious MOHIR is prepared.

Monster
Of
Helsinki
Ice
Rink

 

[xeyra]

While the goldenskate residents discussed merrily about the Worlds, an entity that threatens the competition had been chosen by the council.

MOHIR is buying its ticket to Helsinki online as we speak. It had a discussion with GRIM. It pities GRIM for not able to have any of the 13 quad meals by the medalists' FS at 4CC. But devious MOHIR is prepared.

Monster
Of
Helsinki
Ice
Rink

He did kind of consume one quad from one of the medalists but he burped it out as a double.

 

[da96103]

He did kind of consume one quad from one of the medalists but he burped it out as a double.

You mean a double and a loop. GRIM got shocked by that burp and allowed the second quad toe to escape.

GRIM learnt its lesson and will come back full force for Olympics 2018 and will also memorise plan B's.

 

[xeyra]

You mean a double and a loop. GRIM got shocked by that burp and allowed the second quad toe to escape.

GRIM learnt its lesson and will come back full force for Olympics 2018 and will also memorise plan B's.

Please no, I'll probably be watching that with my family, I'd rather GRIM went out to eat instead.

 

[LRK]

Well, reading the 4CC's thread, it seemed to me that GRIM maybe had a preference for 3As... some do like them better than quads.

 

[Khoai]

I am sick of ugly and cheated quads. And now we have ugly 3A. ISU is naive and stupid to think they can live with that.

 

[teeannroo]

Since Yuzuru doesn't seem to have peaked yet I'm hoping he does here and skates to clean programs and breaks some WRs whilst he's at it tbh I'm not entirely sure how likely that is but one can dream His programs both have the potential to easily break WRs if skates clean and well

 

[StitchMonkey]

It could go either way! Hanyu could arrive at worlds with a lot of fire and beat Nathan or he could get more apprehensive. It's ice skating anything could happen. I'm just going to say Shoma could come in and take the win away from everyone, that would be funny!

Then we could have a different reigning world champion than the reigning GPF champion and different from the Euro champ and 4CC champ.... what an Olympic season!

 

[KatGrace1925]

Then we could have a different reigning world champion than the reigning GPF champion and different from the Euro champ and 4CC champ.... what an Olympic season!

I would be so happy for any of the top guys to win. Men's figure skating is so exciting right now because there are so many strong contenders and they're are just fantastic in their own ways! I look forward to seeing what a fantastic showdown worlds could be!

 

[4everchan]

Hanyu is building his momentum event to event this season. I hope at Worlds he is finally going to have the peak time

hopefully he doesn't peak too late

 

[Sackie]

With the way Chen's PCS has been jumping with each competition - I am sure he will be World Champ as long as he stays on his feet. It seems with each Quad you do your PCS goes up and up and up!

 

[Khoai]

hopefully he doesn't peak too late

Mr. Hanyu can mess just a little the competitions and does brilliantly at the Olympic and it will be enough.

 

[karne]

*sly grin*

You'll all be focusing on your big country skaters, but I'm up for a surprise upset from the skater under the Southern Cross...

 

[SnowWhite]

I'm just looking forward to seeing what matching outfits Javi and Chiddy wear at practice.

 

[xeyra]

This has absolutely no weight whatsoever, and it was done just for giggles, but I did this first for Yuzu for speculation purposes, then decided to go crazy and do the same for all the other 'top men' (Hanyu, Chen, Uno, Fernandez, Chan, Jin). This will very obviously be completely useless because everyone will decide to change their layouts 245 times before Worlds (and during!), but I was having fun with Excel and was bored at work, so this was born.

Basically, I created a 'protocol' of possible SP, FS and total scores based on the highest GOEs each element on the stipulated layouts have gotten throughout this season, as well as highest PCS. I have included only values from GP events and 4CC/Europeans, though in order to have at least 4 events for Boyang, I ended up using AWG results too, though I didn't do so for Shoma. No nationals scores were used, for obvious reasons.

All GOEs and PCS used are from the 2016/2017 season alone. Also, I only counted level 4 spins and steps GOEs, even if level 3s or less have gotten better GOE, just to keep everything consistent.

Anyways, here's the 'protocol'.

There are elements marked in yellow. These are usually elements that either have always gotten negative GOE or have no precedent in the layout and thus have no GOE to measure by, so I have marked them as 0.

Important note: PCS are always going to increase if people are actually clean, so feel free to add up some more points there in your mind.

Either way, look at all those potential 300 totals!

Edit: I don't even care to think about Nathan's potential BV increase if he replaces a 4T for another 4F or 4Lz, or, heck, goes for 6 quads + 1 3A. In that case, he'll out-BV anyone's PCS advantage. And if Shoma decides to add the 4S/5 quads for Worlds... idek. We'll have to see.

Edit 2: All the GOEs here are the highest they've all gotten so far this season; which doesn't preclude them getting even higher GOEs at some point, including Worlds.

Edit 3: Each element's highest GOE is taken from that particular segment (either SP or FS). For example, Nathan's 4Lz-3T has the highest general GOE in the FS but I didn't use it for the SP's GOE, because these two segments are different beasts altogether.

 

[xeyra]

Adding to the statistics that I seem to love researching, here is a snapshot of the best elements done so far by skaters this season. Includes best solo and combination quad jump by total score and GOE, best solo and combination triple jump, best step and choreographic sequence and best spins.

BEST ELEMENTS OF THE 2016/2017 SEASON

I'll be doing something similar for the Ladies.

Edit: This list didn't take into account Asian Winter Games, where Boyang JIN had a higher GOE on his solo 4Lz and Han YAN had the highest GOE on his 3A-3T (2.60).