2017 Worlds Men pre-event thread

[Marin]

People talk a lot about Hanyu, Chen and Uno but I have the feeling that they are underestimating Fernandez and Chan , especially first one. The guy won his 2 worlds while being a dark horse, besides being 2 time reigning champ he is lucky enough this year to enter competition as dark horse again, while all the eyes are on above-mentioned 3, Fernandez has a very good shot for podium once again. He skates his usual well known layouts with lesser risk and and no worries about spots. (all other guys will be hunting for spots that adds another pressure for them )

 

[xeyra]

I saw a Japanese TV clip focusing on the newly formed rivalry between Hanyu and Nathan at Nathan's Fan Fest. After the final result was settled at 4CC, Hanyu said in the press conference there, he considered putting 5 quads in his LP which came as an interesting news for me. I wonder whether Hanyu really plans to do that at Helsinki.

Moreover, among the podium finishers of GPF and 4CC, Shoma are in both along with Nathan and Hanyu. While many people have paid close attention to the two, Shoma's rising rate is also fast. He didn't peak his condition in the latter of previous two seasons, so I'm curious as to how he handles his stamina at Worlds this time and finally can grab his first World medal.

I don't forget about the other contenders such as the defending WC champion, Javi and former 3-time WC Patrick. Boyang has struggled with consistency, but gets better as the season goes on, so his another World medal is not out of reach. Kolyada, Kovtun, Denis Ten, Han Yan, Jason....they could be spoilers, so the event will be an exciting competition for sure.

Shoma is sort of like Javi. Dark horse more than front runner in the eyes of the media, including the Japanese media, even though he is their national champion! Except that Shoma's new layout and his PCS scoring for the past competition puts him in a really good, competitive place. Shoma has really great GOE potential too.

Of course, everything is always potential. Javi has the potential to do amazingly well too. So does Patrick, Yuzuru, Nathan. Everyone has amazing potential... but delivering on that potential is always the hard part. My greatest wish is that people deliver their best, are happy with their skates, and just let the dice fall where it may if everyone goes relatively clean.

Regarding the 5-quads for Yuzuru, he can't actually do that until he introduces a new quad because he won't give up on two 3As. So he currently does not have enough quads in his arsenal for a 5-quad program for Worlds. If he does so next season with the 4Lz he is training (or even at WTT this season) remains to be seen, but raising BV (for everyone) might very well be necessary, given the ceiling on PCS and depending on what happens at Worlds. Not to mention taking into consideration Nathan's potential BV is still very open and very frightening (there's talk of him landing 4Lo in practice); then there's Shoma's 4S that will definitely make an appearance next season. Plus all those juniors with multiple quads coming into seniors next season...

We're at a junction where BV might very well decide everything; if not this season, then definitely next season, the important season. GOEs and PCS might not be differentiating enough in the future; they're hardly differentiating enough now.

 

[Tavi...]

Shoma is sort of like Javi. Dark horse more than front runner in the eyes of the media, including the Japanese media, even though he is their national champion! Except that Shoma's new layout and his PCS scoring for the past competition puts him in a really good, competitive place. Shoma has really great GOE potential too.

Of course, everything is always potential. Javi has the potential to do amazingly well too. So does Patrick, Yuzuru, Nathan. Everyone has amazing potential... but delivering on that potential is always the hard part. My greatest wish is that people deliver their best, are happy with their skates, and just let the dice fall where it may if everyone goes relatively clean.

Regarding the 5-quads for Yuzuru, he can't actually do that until he introduces a new quad because he won't give up on two 3As. So he currently does not have enough quads in his arsenal for a 5-quad program for Worlds. If he does so next season with the 4Lz he is training (or even at WTT this season) remains to be seen, but raising BV (for everyone) might very well be necessary, given the ceiling on PCS and depending on what happens at Worlds. Not to mention taking into consideration Nathan's potential BV is still very open and very frightening (there's talk of him landing 4Lo in practice); then there's Shoma's 4S that will definitely make an appearance next season. Plus all those juniors with multiple quads coming into seniors next season...

We're at a junction where BV might very well decide everything; if not this season, then definitely next season, the important season. GOEs and PCS might not be differentiating enough in the future; they're hardly differentiating enough now.

I actually think seeing how PCS (and GOE) is awarded will be one of the most interesting things about this competition. Now that judges have had the opportunity to see dazzling, daring, 4 to 5-quad displays from a number of the top contenders, theoretically they should be able to start differentiating PCS from BV a bit more, and analyzing the actual quality of those jumps in awarding GOE. But will they actually do so?

I'm not saying that 4 to 5-quad performances inherently deserve lower PCS, nor am I discounting the possibility that we will see performances from the top contenders actually deserving of high PCS / GOE - for example, Nathan has demonstrated significant improvement in both areas since the beginning of the season, and may well continue that trend here. I simply wish the judges would award PCS/ GOE to all skaters - not just the top contenders - based on what they actually put out on the ice, rather than giving what frequently amounts to a substantial bonus in PCS/GOE for skaters with very high BV. But I must confess I'm pessimistic.

 

[Yatagarasu]

he considered putting 5 quads in his LP which came as an interesting news for me. I wonder whether Hanyu really plans to do that at Helsinki.

No, that is talk for next season. He won't do a program without the 2x3As and that means it's not possible right now for him to do a 5 quad program, unless he introduces the 4Lz in Helsinki.
That's a completely unnecessary risk though, skating clean right now is what he has to do.

 

[sallycinnamon]

Reference: At 2016 worlds, the 24th skater in SP was Ivan Pavlov from Ukraine with 65.20

A lot happenned since then. I also think that if the quality of the SP competition will be high, then a 70+ score will be necessary to reach the top 24.

 

[frida80]

no one can predict what's going to happen or who's going to be on the top of the podium at worlds and I hope everyone compete without injuring themselves
and please no more scoring controversy again and fans raging :noshake:

Surely, you jest. Every competition involves some sort of scoring controversy that do gets discussed to death until the next.

 

[xeyra]

Surely, you jest. Every competition involves some sort of scoring controversy that do gets discussed to death until the next.

A competition without a scoring controversy is not a competition worth having!

 

[YesWay]

and please no more scoring controversy again and fans raging :noshake:

Surely, you jest. Every competition involves some sort of scoring controversy that do gets discussed to death until the next.

A competition without a scoring controversy is not a competition worth having!

And don't forget the inevitable and necessary fan rage too!
It goes hand-in-hand with the scoring controversy!

 

[da96103]

A lot happenned since then. I also think that if the quality of the SP competition will be high, then a 70+ score will be necessary to reach the top 24.

The post I replied to predicted that the 24th highest SP would be 75 in this year's Worlds.

We should have a prediction game. What would be the lowest SP score to qualify for FS?

You say 70+? Come on give an exact number.

 

[TontoK]

i didn't think of GPF because right before GPF Nathan wasn't talking about 5 quads in the lp nor landing them... that really happened at nationals and got fans excited...

worlds : we are just waiting patiently LOL... ice is slippery

News from an article on the Nathan Fan Fest thread is that Nathan now has a 4Loop. Only done in practice, of course.

Theoretically, he could be the first skater to deliver all the quads (except 4A) in a free program.

Even more theoretically, the only triple in his program could be the back-end of a combo. Except 3A.

Think of it. The easiest jumping passes in his entire competition could be 3A, delivered once in the SP and once in the FP.

Question: an axel take-off jump is still a FP requirement, isn't it?

 

[sallycinnamon]

The post I replied to predicted that the 24th highest SP would be 75 in this year's Worlds.

We should have a prediction game. What would be the lowest SP score to qualify for FS?

You say 70+? Come on give an exact number.

Ok, then I predict 72.

 

[el henry]

OK, I expect this to get no traction, but I am going to try a little derailment....

I do not give the *tiniest* of rat's patooties about the following:

How many quads someone puts in their program, just to put a quad in their program; what quads they are, whether they can repeat them; what the BV for the program is with 58 gazillion quads, whether it's calculated using the Fahrenheit or Centigrade scale, etc.,

What I *do* care about and what I *am* looking forward to:

Can Jason replicate that lovely, masterful Piano LP from SA that had the gate attendant crying with tears of appreciation?

Can Deniss V. continue those gorgeous, beautiful spins that he learned at the skates of the master, and keep his program together?

Can Misha overcome his injuries to show us what ballet on ice *really* looks like? Will it really be the last time we see Misha in a comp?

Can Julian Yee keep channeling James Brown, and maybe improve some of those spins?

And similar questions......

 

[da96103]

News from an article on the Nathan Fan Fest thread is that Nathan now has a 4Loop. Only done in practice, of course.

Theoretically, he could be the first skater to deliver all the quads (except 4A) in a free program.

Even more theoretically, the only triple in his program could be the back-end of a combo. Except 3A.

Think of it. The easiest jumping passes in his entire competition could be 3A, delivered once in the SP and once in the FP.

Question: an axel take-off jump is still a FP requirement, isn't it?

Looks like my wild idea from a few years ago has the chance to see the light of day.

Challenge: Skate the exact Lysacek's POTO Olympics FS, but:
- upgrading all non-axel triples to quads
- upgrading all non-axel doubles to triples

 

[Yatagarasu]

Can Misha overcome his injuries to show us what ballet on ice *really* looks like? Will it really be the last time we see Misha in a comp?

I think it may very well be it. His instagram yesterday was captioned as "last week" and though it could mean prior to the Worlds it does hold the possibility that it's more. With everything else, I am not optimistic. Ack, I'll miss him so.

It's a beautiful photo though
https://www.instagram.com/p/BR3X3bPBv0E/

 

[da96103]

Ok, then I predict 72.

Thank you for playing. I will say 69.5.

Thus far:

GF2445 says 75.0
Sallycinnamon says 72.0
Da96103 says 69.5

Anyone wants to make a prediction of the lowest SP score to qualify for the FS.

Reply to this post and I will update.

 

[xeyra]

News from an article on the Nathan Fan Fest thread is that Nathan now has a 4Loop. Only done in practice, of course.

Theoretically, he could be the first skater to deliver all the quads (except 4A) in a free program.

Even more theoretically, the only triple in his program could be the back-end of a combo. Except 3A.

Think of it. The easiest jumping passes in his entire competition could be 3A, delivered once in the SP and once in the FP.

A 6 quad program (with two 4F or 4Lz plus 4Lo, 4T and 4S) and two 3As (one solo, one combo) would just be about, oh, I don't know, 121-122+ BV, depending on bonus (and levels). A 7 quad program could get about 125 BV. These are all higher than the record TES so far!

However, I'm not sure anyone, even Nathan for all his skill, can really do a 7-quad FS. It's seems way too taxing to be something you can maintain successfully across competitions without breaking yourself (and would anyone really have the stamina for it??). Also, I'm not sure I'd like to see what kind of program this would end up being...

 

[da96103]

A 6 quad program (with two 4F or 4Lz plus 4Lo, 4T and 4S) and two 3As (one solo, one combo) would just be about, oh, I don't know, 121-122+ BV, depending on bonus (and levels). A 7 quad program could get about 125 BV. These are all higher than the record TES so far!

However, I'm not sure anyone, even Nathan for all his skill, can really do a 7-quad FS. It's seems way too taxing to be something you can maintain successfully across competitions without breaking yourself (and would anyone really have the stamina for it??). Also, I'm not sure I'd like to see what kind of program this would end up being...

What can be done is to do 5 different quads and two 3A and one triple lutz combo. In the event he falls or pops in any of the 5 quads, he can replace the triple lutz with the quad that he fell since he does not utilise the second repeat jump.

 

[LRK]

Thank you for playing. I will say 69.5.

Thus far:

GF2445 says 75.0
Sallycinnamon says 72.0
Da96103 says 69.5

Anyone wants to make a prediction of the lowest SP score to qualify for the FS.

Reply to this post and I will update.

70.0

 

[silverfoxes]

OK, I expect this to get no traction, but I am going to try a little derailment....

I do not give the *tiniest* of rat's patooties about the following:

How many quads someone puts in their program, just to put a quad in their program; what quads they are, whether they can repeat them; what the BV for the program is with 58 gazillion quads, whether it's calculated using the Fahrenheit or Centigrade scale, etc.,

What I *do* care about and what I *am* looking forward to:

Can Jason replicate that lovely, masterful Piano LP from SA that had the gate attendant crying with tears of appreciation?

Can Deniss V. continue those gorgeous, beautiful spins that he learned at the skates of the master, and keep his program together?

Can Misha overcome his injuries to show us what ballet on ice *really* looks like? Will it really be the last time we see Misha in a comp?

Can Julian Yee keep channeling James Brown, and maybe improve some of those spins?

And similar questions......

I'm much more interested in all of the men who have no chance of medaling here & who will be pretty much ignored in this conversation as usual...and I hate math, so I always zone out during those conversations about BV, etc. Zzzz... You just reminded me this might be Misha's final competition. I hope he can have a performance like Florent had at Euros last year. And I hope Deniss will wow the crowd in Finland even without a quad.

 

[Mango]

Thank you for playing. I will say 69.5.

Thus far:

GF2445 says 75.0
Sallycinnamon says 72.0
Da96103 says 69.5

Anyone wants to make a prediction of the lowest SP score to qualify for the FS.

Reply to this post and I will update.

I'll say 67.

What to make of Javier Fernandez? http://dai.ly/x5fmojz