2018-19 Canadian figure skating

[Tanager]

I belatedly remembered that nobody responded to this, but in any event: they're staying juniors, as far as anybody knows.

I don't see what they'd gain by going senior now. As juniors they can try to snag some medals. The Canadian senior ice dance field is so clogged right now, even with V/M gone, that they wouldn't get to any major international competition.

Hi cool Canucks (and friends thereof). Can I hang out with you here? :luv17:

I'm curious about your thoughts on the depth of talent in Canadian senior ice dance moving into this new quad. There are the established, proven teams of WeaPo and G/P and then the up-and-coming Firus/Soucisse, Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen, Lajoie/Lagha (soon enough), and perhaps talented teams I'm forgetting about also? How do you envision this beginning to shake out in the national rankings? Who breaks through? Will WeaPo stick around? I worry G/P may begin to slip in the rankings...
Multiple talented teams, max. 3 spots at Worlds/the Olympics. There are worse problems for a country to have, but I always feel for the team(s) who seem to be consistently just on the outside looking in.

 

[Osmond4gold]

Hi cool Canucks (and friends thereof). Can I hang out with you here? :luv17:

I'm curious about your thoughts on the depth of talent in Canadian senior ice dance moving into this new quad. There are the established, proven teams of WeaPo and G/P and then the up-and-coming Firus/Soucisse, Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen, Lajoie/Lagha (soon enough), and perhaps talented teams I'm forgetting about also? How do you envision this beginning to shake out in the national rankings? Who breaks through? Will WeaPo stick around? I worry G/P may begin to slip in the rankings...
Multiple talented teams, max. 3 spots at Worlds/the Olympics. There are worse problems for a country to have, but I always feel for the team(s) who seem to be consistently just on the outside looking in.

Hi there Tanager and welcome! Please feel free to hang here anytime. And regarding your question..., with a couple of veteran teams, mixed with new young homegrown and adopted talents, it's a great time to be a fan of Canadian ice dancing!

 

[Ice Dance]

My own biggest worry is that Weaver & Poje may be a bit behind in preparations coming off the tour, and that if they lose to G&P this season, they may just get out. My biggest hope is that W&P will benefit from years of perspective, draw on all the experience they have gained, commit to staying in until Montreal. And then realize that it's not too long a haul to stay in two more years.

I'm curious about your thoughts on the depth of talent in Canadian senior ice dance moving into this new quad.

I don't think it's very deep compared to what it could have been if so many teams had not retired after the 2016 Worlds and so many junior teams had not split this summer. However, the scenario is looking up relative to last year with the Montreal Worlds being possible motivation for Weaver & Poje to continue and with the Danes choosing to compete for Canada. This bolsters the field quite a bit and gives Canada three experienced and well-established teams, plus a couple prospects with long-term potential.

I think the odds are not bad for Weaver & Poje to stay in if they choose to do so through the Montreal Worlds. If they make it to Montreal mid-way through the quadrennium, two more years may not seem like too much. I wouldn't stay in if I were W&P, but I love their skating and I hope they will. I think Gilles & Poirier will stay in. I don't know how far they will get internationally, but they generally outrank my predictions for them and I don't see anyone below them at home pushing them for a few seasons. They have been fairly close to W&P scorewise in their last two major international events. Feels like the top two are closer than two & three. I like the Danes. Think it is a gutsy move for them to switch back to Canada, and ultimately I think they have the potential to win the battle for the next spot. Though I worry that it could be tough this season as they will not get to compete in ISU international events prior to Nationals and it will be tough to prove themselves in a National field without the international setup. The footwork levels and the twizzles are always key for Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson. Soucisse & Firus, I think, have potential as a new team. Their levels were much improved this season & sometimes better than F-B&S's so it could be an interesting battle there. Overall, I expect it to take time for S&F, and I think it will depend a lot on their ability to stick together as they tackle the challenges that face most young developing dance teams. I really don't know what to expect from Lajoie & Lagha as they move up, but I think staying in juniors this season is a wise choice; and they are capable of being strong players throughout the JGP and junior season. (Hoping for a more lively FD than last year's).

I always feel for the team(s) who seem to be consistently just on the outside looking in.

I'm not sure who you are concerned about here, as none of the Canadian teams below Gilles & Poirier have been together/Canadian/senior long enough to be consistently on the outside looking in. And, for dance, both Soucisse & Firus and Lajoie & Lagha are young enough to stay in longer than the current top two if they are prepared to stick it out together. I will be sad for the Danes if they miss the Canadian team more than a season, but I still think it's a gutsy move to switch. It's their only shot at the Olympics. May not pay off, but IMO, they are good enough to put up a fight and should make the attempt.

perhaps talented teams I'm forgetting about also?

The next highest ranked teams from Canadian seniors are Arnold & Williams and Sales & Wamsteeker. Both split results at Canadian Nationals and at 4CCs. They finished 8th & 9th at 4CCs, behind Min & Gamelin of Korea and above the 2nd Japanese team of Komatsubara & Koleto. It is possible that either of these two Canadian teams could receive a host berth at Skate Canada International this season, depending on how many of the currently ranked top three Canadian teams SC chooses to invite. And also depending on whether both teams are continuing this season.

The second highest Canadian junior team remaining from last season is Fisher & Malette-Paquette. Their best finish was a fourth place at JGP Italy last season. Not a bad setup for this season, which I believe is his last in juniors. There have been a plethora of splits in the Canadian junior ranks since last season, but D'Allessandro & Waddell are still competing as well and have lots of time to develop.

 

[Tanager]

Hi there Tanager and welcome! Please feel free to hang here anytime. And regarding your question..., with a couple of veteran teams, mixed with new young homegrown and adopted talents, it's a great time to be a fan of Canadian ice dancing!

Thanks Osmond4gold! And I'll add that as big Kaetlyn fan myself, I'm glad she's taking this fall to discern the path forward, and hopeful that path involves more competitive skating.

 

[StephenGfan]

The full 2018-19 NextGen team

Men
Joseph Phan
Stephen Gogolev
Eric Liu
Conrad Orzel
Iliya Kovler
Corey Circelli
Alec Guinzbourg
Beres Clements
Brian Chiem
Aleksa Rakic

Women
Aurora Cotop
Olivia Gran
Emily Bausback
Alison Schumacher
Emily Bulawka
Hannah Dawson
Sarah-Maude Blanchard
Lissa Anne McGaghey
Victoria Bocknek
Catherine Carle
Amelia Orzel
Leah Lee
Daria Carr
Sandrine Bouchard

Pairs
Patricia Andrew/Paxton Fletcher
Gabrielle Levesque/Pier-Alexandre Hudon
Olivia Boys-Eddy/Mackenzie Boys-Eddy
Brooke McIntosh/Brandon Toste
Marine Pouliot/Alexandre Simard
Camille Perreault/Bryan Pierro

Ice dance
Natalie D'Alessandro/Bruce Waddell
Miku Makita/Tyler Gunara
Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha
Elle Fisher/Simon-Pierre Malette-Paquette
Nadiia Bashynska/Peter Beaumont
Amelia Boone/Malcolm Kowan

Two sets of siblings - the Orzels and the Boys-Eddy siblings. And finally more pairs!

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

Hi cool Canucks (and friends thereof). Can I hang out with you here? :luv17:

Welcome! :hap85:

 

[Tanager]

My own biggest worry is that Weaver & Poje may be a bit behind in preparations coming off the tour, and that if they lose to G&P this season, they may just get out. My biggest hope is that W&P will benefit from years of perspective, draw on all the experience they have gained, commit to staying in until Montreal. And then realize that it's not too long a haul to stay in two more years.

Ice Dance, I really appreciate your response!
I'm not going to try to multi-quote you yet because I feel like I'm not going to do that correctly...

I will be happy if WeaPo retire after a most moving and wonderful Worlds in Montreal (and not necessarily that they'll win a medal; just two skates that they can be utterly happy with). I would, however, be most pleased if they then decided to go all out to Beijing. And if they're feeling driven and passionate, why not?! Do you really think G/P could surpass them internationally this season though? Can G/P break through with a medal at Worlds, do you think?

I appreciate all your insight into the up-and-coming teams, including ones that haven't yet been on my radar. As to teams on the outside looking in, I'm not really referring to anyone at present. Perhaps thinking of a team like Paul/Islam who I felt like never could quite break through (though they did skate at the Olympics/Worlds, which is not shabby at all). Just wondering how likely a similar scenario is to unfold going forward. As you point out though, teams like S/F and L/L are new/young and perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself and should think of them more in terms of post-2022 to be at the peak of their abilities together. That is, assuming that their partnerships do indeed stand that test of time (hopefully so, but no guarantees of course).

 

[Tanager]

Welcome! :hap85:

Thank you!!

 

[Mango]

Welcome Tanager! Thanks for joining us.

For ice dance this upcoming season we'll have to see how Piper & Paul build on their top 6 finish at Worlds and what a renewed WeaPo do. Both should absolutely be aiming to make GPF after missing it for a few seasons.

The Canes as 4everchan refers to them should be competing in Quebec regularly and at Skate Canada Challenge to establish themselves. It's going to be an interesting battle for the 3rd 4CC and Worlds spot between them and Soucisse/Firus.

As for the juniors - only three top teams survived the splits from last season. However we should keep an eye on the new teams. McIsaac/Circelli will be making a push, as will Fabbri/Ayer who've only got 1 season of junior. The two novice teams of Makita/Gunara and Bashynska/Beaumont also did quite well as novice competitors in Egna back in February so they will be ones to watch on the JGP.

D'A/W have a lot of time to develop and long term they should be the ones to watch. The last quad we saw teams who developed a long time, like McNamara/Carpenter and the Parsons, have success. I can see D'A/W heading in that direction as well if they keep at it. They've been working with Gadbois and also Alexandra Paul & Scott Moir so I think their team is taking a good approach. The key is to have them actually compete more. One international competition in the entire season isn't going to help them get anywhere in terms of PCS and feedback.

There was another novice team I had my eye on but I'm not sure off the top of my head if they're going junior this season. Sophia Strachan / Everest Zhu from Kitchener-Waterloo SC. I am waiting to see them breakout. They won silver at sectionals in novice ice dance, were 4th at Challenge, and 6th at Nationals. KWSC has a long history in ice dance and they are part of it now.

 

[Tanager]

Welcome Tanager! Thanks for joining us.

For ice dance this upcoming season we'll have to see how Piper & Paul build on their top 6 finish at Worlds and what a renewed WeaPo do. Both should absolutely be aiming to make GPF after missing it for a few seasons.

The Canes as 4everchan refers to them should be competing in Quebec regularly and at Skate Canada Challenge to establish themselves. It's going to be an interesting battle for the 3rd 4CC and Worlds spot between them and Soucisse/Firus.

Oh God, I feel like a terrible Canadian stereotype - the first thing that came to my mind with "Canes" was, why would an ice dance team be nicknamed after the NHL's Carolina Hurricanes?? Wow, eh? Took me a minute to realise you were talking about F-B/S and then to put together Canadian + Dane = Canes. I like it!

Thanks for the further insight, Mango (also: Hello!!) I don't generally follow too far down into junior/novice ranks so I'm genuinely curious: How many novice and even junior teams generally survive to move up together (from novice to junior; from junior to senior)? That is, were the number of splits last season within a normal range or a bit of an anomaly?

 

[NanaPat]

The prematurely retired team I mourn the most is Orford and Hill. They only skated together for a year, and their partnership seemed to have something very special. I liked them both with their previous partners, but they seemed to have something extra when they skated together.

 

[4everchan]

welcome Tanager!

Great that you found us, Canucks, in this thread.

 

[SnowWhite]

I wanted to see how close Lajoie/Lagha are to Soucisse/Firus and Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen score-wise, taking into account the differences in base value between juniors and seniors.

Last season in the SP, the only difference was that the juniors did a second pattern instead of the PSt. The difference in base value with both at a level 3 is 2.70.

In the FS, the seniors have two extra elements: an extra lift (4.50 BV for level 4) and a 2nd step sequence (5.60 BV for a level 2). And there would be GOE for these two elements as well.

So that's 12.80 in BV (11.30 if the PSt is level 2).

SB scores:
- S/F --- 164.96
- FB/S --- 164.90
- L/L --- 150.30 -> 161.60

So even with conservative levels and no GOE added, L/L were only 3-4 points back. Looking at the JGPF their GOE was pretty good even level the levels were low, so if I add 2.0 points in GOE (they could get more) they get even closer.

Of course, who knows how the three teams will progress in the next couple of seasons, but I'd say those three are currently pretty close to each other. Some people think that FB/S would have been scoring higher if they'd been skating for a bigger fed, so maybe their scores will jump a bit. On the other hand, the other two are younger, so maybe they have more room to improve / are likely to improve more quickly. Hard to say.

Weaver/Poje are definitely ahead and I don't really see them being passed (except by G/P) before they retire - though I am guessing that they'll stop before the next Games. Gilles/Poirier are solidly ahead of the next three currently, and quite close to W/P. They could get passed by 2022 though - 4 years is a long time.

 

[4everchan]

my thoughts

Weapo will reign on Canadian dance up to Montreal and retire then. I hope they will have more medals around their necks, especially in Montreal.

GP will be challenging but there will be a bigger gap with Weapo than in the past couple seasons. Weapo are clearly now Canadian #1. However, GP will reign on Canadian dance from Montreal to Beijing after which they will retire. They will have an Olympic team medal around their necks... something that no other dance team apart from VM has done yet in Canada. ... Strange to think that GP will have an accolade that Weapo didn't manage to get...

I am not sure what will happen with the Canes now that they are less exotic as Canadian skaters than they were as Danish.... I adore them and I would like for them to be in the top 3 until 2022.

Soucisse Firus. I think they will be 4th until Montreal but then, we will see.. they could surpass the Canes but they could also be surpassed by L/L

I think L/L will medal at both JGPF and Junior worlds this year. Next year they will move on to the senior circuit but will not qualify for Montreal worlds. They will probably be on the Olympic team in 2022 though.

Our dance team is not deep in numbers anymore but it is very top heavy... considering that we are so far from the games in 4 years and we already know that one team will be left out.... it will almost be a relief for the younger teams if Weapo call it a career by worlds but if they are healthy, and feeling still inspired, they could stick for the games, as that's really the one medal they don't have....

 

[Ice Dance]

I find it difficult to multi-quote on Golden Skate Also. What I do is press, "Reply," then copy & paste the whole message so I always have at least one whole extra copy below. Then I go up to the original quote, delete what I don't want to reply to immediately. And then answer the question. (As long as you keep the opening info inside the brackets and the closing info inside the brackets, you're golden).

Then if I only want one more quote, I do the same with full message I posted below: delete the info I don't want & keep the brackets. If I want more than one more quote, I copy the full message again and paste it below first. Not sure if that helps, but basically as long as you copy & paste the original message, you always have an extra one available to recopy & tinker with until you are done replying to the post. There is probably an easier way to do this.

Do you really think G/P could surpass them internationally this season though?

Don't know. I personally think Weaver & Poje are the better team.

But I do think G&P could defeat a sloppy Weaver & Poje if both teams get invited to SC and if W&P are behind in preparations, having a slow start to their season. (Andrew's twizzles . . .) I'm hoping, of course, that neither team has a sloppy start. And I'm hoping both teams don't meet up until later in the season so that we get to see them go head to head after both teams have had time to develop their material and respond to international feedback.

Gilles & Poirier are a really hard team for me to gauge though. Had a generally crummy start to last season and a generally crummy start in 2015-16 as well, but responded to feedback both times during the season and outplaced predictions based on their GP results at Worlds both times. I find it really hard to know what to expect for them next season. On the one hand, they outscored Weaver & Poje and other high-level teams in the technical mark in the FD at the Olympics and Worlds. That's not insignificant. On the other hand, it's very unlikely there will be a Canadian caller at this coming Worlds as there was at this past one. And it doesn't bode very well for G&P that they never earned higher than a level 2 on their pattern this past season, considering the supposed difficulty of getting a clean rocker for this coming season's Tango Romantica. On the plus side, for them, their last tango was one of their better programs.

Can G/P break through with a medal at Worlds, do you think?

I wouldn't think so, but final dance results for this coming season are going to depend a lot on 1. retirements, 2. the performances on the day, 3. programs, and 4. how the season goes leading up to Worlds. (I like that Worlds are in neutral dance territory this season).

My personal odds are on P&C, H&D, and Stepanova & Bukin. But those are just my own odds. S&B, obviously, would have to climb even farther up the international dance ranks that G&P so I can't say I don't think G&P have a shot. I personally like S&B's odds because they are likely to become #1 in Russia this season, they do one of the toughest twizzle sequences in the world, they split results with three World medal teams last season (Weaver & Poje, Bobrova & Soloviev, and Cappellini & Lanotte), once upon a time they defeated P&C at the junior level & are only just now likely to get the full support of their federation, and they are relatively consistent performers. Definitely need to put in some hard work on the footwork sequences, though. They don't always get the level three footwork calls and may need to crack level four before they can crack a World podium. And they will need to skate next year's tango closer together than their last one, which I think they can do; but we'll see.

I'm rooting for Weaver & Poje and Stepanova & Bukin. Unless Cappellini & Lanotte stay in. In which case, I'm rooting for them too. I have a perennial tendency to root for underdogs.

(And I'm really rooting for McNamara & Carpenter, but I realize we have some serious climbing to do there).

 

[NanaPat]

There's a little icon to the right of the "reply with quote" that is multi-quote. If you want to quote three posts, just click on the little box on all three posts, then do reply to thread, and voila, all the posts will be there! Or click the multi-quote box for two of the posts and "reply with quote" for the third. The same thing will happen; all the posts will show in your reply.

Now for the downside.... Those posts you multi-quoted (which should now show a check mark by the multi-quote icon) will appear in every post you make until you clear them up. You need to go back and find them all and click again to make the check marks go away.

Edited to add: I see you are addressing a different problem: breaking a single quoted post into parts so you can reply to each of them separately. My advice is for if you want to quote several posts in the same reply. Which is also a useful thing to be able to do, so I'll leave it here.

 

[Colonel Green]

I worry G/P may begin to slip in the rankings...

You never know who's going to fall out of favour in ice dance, but Piper and Paul just got their best-ever score at Worlds and tied their personal best placement from a few years prior. There's some momentum there, I think, particularly after the first half of the season was a big disappointment.

I do think the super-positive reception for the James Bond program is a signal that they should go for that sort of broad crowd-pleaser, because it got them results.

 

[Ice Dance]

So even with conservative levels and no GOE added, L/L were only 3-4 points back.

It's really tough to do this between junior & senior dance. I like what you did. I think it's interesting that you left off the GOE and agree that you absolutely have to take into account the difference in base values--especially in the FD. However, looking closely at scores for Junior World medalists this season moving up to seniors, there was a clear difference in PCS and GOE awarded for the same teams when they were at the top of the junior ranks and then as first-year senior teams. The juniors at the top have been bringing in higher PCS and GOE than first year seniors are getting. Any first year seniors. Even the Shibs and Papadakis & Cizeron. The juniors in the middle tier that moved up to seniors in 2017-2018 seemed to take about a 10 point drop when they broke into seniors--which isn't that strange considering programs are new. Though those mid-tier teams also seemed to have a better shot of besting their junior SB scores by the end of the year if the teams got multiple opportunities to compete internationally. The juniors from the top moving up to seniors, though, weren't cracking their junior SB scores this season, even with much higher base value than last year and with consistent results above the mid-tier juniors/the previous year's first-year seniors/and with various competitions. Just really hard to translate junior dance scores to what they will realistically become in seniors.

On the other hand, head-to-head results have been pretty comparable. The Warsaw Cup Challenger had 5 of the same 6 athletes from the 2016 Junior World podium this year. And all 5 athletes finished in exactly the same places at this senior challenger two years later. Scores were very tangled this season for new senior teams; but head-to-head results between those teams and teams from the previous Junior Worlds were pretty similar to their typical head-to-head results in the junior ranks. Interesting because that obviously isn't always the case. But I do think it may be a more accurate method of predicting results than comparing scores from juniors to seniors.

 

[NanaPat]

But I do think G&P could defeat a sloppy Weaver & Poje if both teams get invited to SC and if W&P are behind in preparations, having a slow start to their season. (Andrew's twizzles . . .)

Gilles and Poirier (barely) defeated Weaver and Poje at Canadian Nationals last year. Andrew fell right at the start of the twizzles in the short dance and they got 0 points for the element. I don't know if I'd call it sloppy or incredibly unlucky, but there it was. It happened.

The crowd support for Weaver and Poje for the free dance was incredible, and everyone breathed a sigh of relief when the twizzles were over.

 

[Mango]

Oh God, I feel like a terrible Canadian stereotype - the first thing that came to my mind with "Canes" was, why would an ice dance team be nicknamed after the NHL's Carolina Hurricanes?? Wow, eh? Took me a minute to realise you were talking about F-B/S and then to put together Canadian + Dane = Canes. I like it!

Thanks for the further insight, Mango (also: Hello!!) I don't generally follow too far down into junior/novice ranks so I'm genuinely curious: How many novice and even junior teams generally survive to move up together (from novice to junior; from junior to senior)? That is, were the number of splits last season within a normal range or a bit of an anomaly?

Lol it's ok I also thought of Carolina when he first came up with this. Now I call them candy canes for fun.

I myself am not sure how many novice teams survive since I don't watch novice dance too closely but what I usually see is many splits and re-partnering before they even get out of novice. Last year though was just crazy for junior ice dance. It was almost a mirror of what happened in seniors at the start of 2016-17, but it went even further. There were teams that were aging out though, so it shouldn't have been that unexpected. But I still think we didn't see it coming.

---

As for the discussion on Piper and Paul: I think people forget that they went through the 2015-16 season with two very unusual programs. They changed one and had big success with it. They didn't change the other and were firmly put back into their place. The following season they played it much safer and had success. They tried to do their own thing again in the Olympic season and once again were given the cold shoulder. So they changed their FD and it was a success. They are capable of doing well. They just need to tick the appropriate boxes.