2018-19 Grand Prix Final Predictions

[BillNeal]

No.

In regards to the Grand Prix season, I sincerely hope that if Zagitova's team are to go ahead and present the current version of her POTO SP, the judges will properly grade the composition of that program. Any skater, especially a skater of her caliber, deserves a more cohesively choreographed SP.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Why do judges care what some "fans" think anyway? With any program, there will be people who like it and people who don't. To imply that there's only one way to view a program is just wrong.

 

[yume]

Zag was absolutely held up at worlds to salvage three spots for Russia. Had she placed any lower they would be going into this year with only 2 berths.
.

My no was most about the gap. IMO, the gap was right as Kostner was as much held up as Zagitova, and Zagitova has been punished on PCS instead of Kostner. If Zagitova was above Kostner it wouldn't even have been shocking. At least judges and TP didn't try to give her a medal. TP could have said "URs? Whose URs?"

Anyway, my prediction is that both Zagitova and Kostner will qualify for GPF this season.

 

[cohen-esque]

... This is truly grasping at straws. Doing a 2Lutz(planned 2Lutz, not a pop) at an exhibition means that she's "practicing it even in exhibitions"? That's not where you practice. You practice at your practice sessions.

Anyway, I personally hope that if Kostner makes the GPF she actually earns it and doesn't get propped up like when she defeated Wakaba Higuchi and Polina Tsurskaya last season.

It seems like it’s always easier for skaters to fix things in practice— how often did we see Ashley Wagner do big, cleanly rotated 3F+3T in practices, only to UR or barely rotate it in competition? Or for another Ashley example since she’s also a flutzer, she added another Lutz to both programs in 14-15 and got three ratified that season— more than she ever got before or since, when she’s taken them back out. I think it’s different to be able to do something in practice, and another thing entirely to do it with the pressure of performing in front of people— Zhenya might want to do her Lutz every chance she gets, even as doubles, while fixing her edge, and especially want to do it in front of people, with a (lower tech exhibition) program to perform along with it.

It’s the same concept— Mao did the same thing, initially even adding the 3Lz to her SP when she really started working on it. And tbh, I don’t think seeing planned doubles from active skaters is very common in exhibitions at all and I doubt she’d have planned it “just because.”

Kostner deserved to beat Wakaba at CoR in my opinion, thought not Tsurskaya at NHK.

 

[BillNeal]

Why do judges care what some "fans" think anyway? With any program, there will be people who like it and people who don't. To imply that there's only one way to view a program is just wrong.

It's not necessarily about what us fans or critics think but there's a set of guidelines for the judges to evaluate components (starting on page 78). I suggest you give it a read. These definitions for singles and pairs haven't changed since 2016 except for the notes written in this chart, which is to be used in conjunction with the guidelines. The definition for composition is as follows:

Composition
An intentionally developed and/or original arrangement of all types of movements according to the principles of musical phrase, space, pattern, and structure. In evaluating the Composition, the following must be considered:
• Purpose (idea, concept, vision, mood);
• Pattern / ice coverage;
• Multidimensional use of space and design of movements;
• Phrase and form (movements and parts structured to match the musical phrase);
• Originality of the composition.

For example, off the bat, the lack of cohesiveness in the music and choreography really leads to the lack of purpose. What exactly is her choreographer trying to achieve? The program has a lack of concept. The mood of her program is probably chaos. It is only recognizable because of the various pieces from POTO.

 

[BillNeal]

It seems like it’s always easier for skaters to fix things in practice— how often did we see Ashley Wagner do big, cleanly rotated 3F+3T in practices, only to UR or barely rotate it in competition? Or for another Ashley example since she’s also a flutzer, she added another Lutz to both programs in 14-15 and got three ratified that season— more than she ever got before or since, when she’s taken them back out. I think it’s different to be able to do something in practice, and another thing entirely to do it with the pressure of performing in front of people— Zhenya might want to do her Lutz every chance she gets, even as doubles, while fixing her edge, and especially want to do it in front of people, with a (lower tech exhibition) program to perform along with it.

It’s the same concept— Mao did the same thing, initially even adding the 3Lz to her SP when she really started working on it. And tbh, I don’t think seeing planned doubles from active skaters is very common in exhibitions at all and I doubt she’d have planned it “just because.”

Kostner deserved to beat Wakaba at CoR in my opinion, thought not Tsurskaya at NHK.

Thank you cohen-esque! By doing her lutz in front of a full crowd rather than in an empty rink during practices would more closely simulate the conditions during competitions. And I believe the spotlights would be an added difficulty. Therefore, it's good preparation for her to attempt the lutz in more difficult conditions but lack of consequences for poor attempts.

 

[LucyH]

No.

Yes

 

[chopinskate]

No.
Yes.

NO.
YES.

Nooo
Yeees

Nooooooo
Yeeeeees

That's a summary of the usual arguments on GS. Thou may now continueth.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

It's not necessarily about what us fans or critics think but there's a set of guidelines for the judges to evaluate components (starting on page 78). I suggest you give it a read. These definitions for singles and pairs haven't changed since 2016 except for the notes written in this chart, which is to be used in conjunction with the guidelines. The definition for composition is as follows:



For example, off the bat, the lack of cohesiveness in the music and choreography really leads to the lack of purpose. What exactly is her choreographer trying to achieve? The program has a lack of concept. The mood of her program is probably chaos. It is only recognizable because of the various pieces from POTO.

Right away, people will have different ideas about each of these bullets. For example, some people may differ in their ideas of originality or purpose. That's why there's multiple judges.

 

[Ziotic]

It's not necessarily about what us fans or critics think but there's a set of guidelines for the judges to evaluate components (starting on page 78). I suggest you give it a read. These definitions for singles and pairs haven't changed since 2016 except for the notes written in this chart, which is to be used in conjunction with the guidelines. The definition for composition is as follows:



For example, off the bat, the lack of cohesiveness in the music and choreography really leads to the lack of purpose. What exactly is her choreographer trying to achieve? The program has a lack of concept. The mood of her program is probably chaos. It is only recognizable because of the various pieces from POTO.

Of course Alina’s program has a purpose, it’s avant- guard POTO

 

[yume]

Yes

No.

 

[BillNeal]

Right away, people will have different ideas about each of these bullets. For example, some people may differ in their ideas of originality or purpose. That's why there's multiple judges.

So what is your take on the purpose of this program? I already expressed my thoughts on it in relation to that bullet. Why do we hear glass shattering and see her hold her fist after her flying camel spin? Is that supposed to convey drama? Is the sound supposed to distract from a breathing point perhaps? Is the program supposed to tell a story or convey a general mood? Not that our opinions matter to the judges but we don't know what an international panel thinks of it until the Challengers or Grand Prix.

 

[yume]

So what is your take on the purpose of this program? I already expressed my thoughts on it in relation to that bullet. Why do we hear glass shattering and see her hold her fist after her flying camel spin? Is that supposed to convey drama? Is the sound supposed to distract from a breathing point perhaps? Is the program supposed to tell a story or convey a general mood? Not that our opinions matter to the judges but we don't know what an international panel thinks of it until the Challengers or Grand Prix.

I don't think judges will care about purpose.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

So what is your take on the purpose of this program? I already expressed my thoughts on it in relation to that bullet. Why do we hear glass shattering and see her hold her fist after her flying camel spin? Is that supposed to convey drama? Is the sound supposed to distract from a breathing point perhaps? Is the program supposed to tell a story or convey a general mood? Not that our opinions matter to the judges but we don't know what an international panel thinks of it until the Challengers or Grand Prix.

To me, the glass shattering and the fist convey a sense of "breaking free" similar to how Christine breaks free of Erik and his entrapments. It also provides drama and brings back interest -- perhaps Daniil knows how much people are bored by POTO and lull off into familiar music -- until they hear such an unconventional noise as glass breaking. I think the program isn't even about POTO itself but of the idea of being fierce, of being yourself. It's about Alina finding herself and her style of skating. But the beauty to me is that they leave it up for interpretation and someone else can have a totally different idea of what it's about. To me, that makes figure skating more accessible and it makes her skating more accessible to different groups of skating fans, both her fans and her... non-fans. The program also plays with the idea of maturing, and again parallels with POTO without being overtly similar -- Christine matures from a young, unknown singer into a strong, empowered woman to spend the rest of her life with Raoul, and Alina is maturing from the "jumping bean" that many dismiss her as (whether that's true or not is another argument) into an artist of her own right without being over the top and showing everyone that "I am an artist!". Alina seems to be very introverted and quiet, and has mentioned Masaru as a true friend for her, especially as she had to leave her home city and friends and family behind. She is not an overly showy person or naturally extroverted, and such a program would not fit her. This is why a subtle but classy program such as this works for her, at least in my opinion.

 

[cohen-esque]

To me, the glass shattering and the fist convey a sense of "breaking free" similar to how Christine breaks free of Erik and his entrapments. It also provides drama and brings back interest -- perhaps Daniil knows how much people are bored by POTO and lull off into familiar music -- until they hear such an unconventional noise as glass breaking. I think the program isn't even about POTO itself but of the idea of being fierce, of being yourself. It's about Alina finding herself and her style of skating. But the beauty to me is that they leave it up for interpretation and someone else can have a totally different idea of what it's about. To me, that makes figure skating more accessible and it makes her skating more accessible to different groups of skating fans, both her fans and her... non-fans. The program also plays with the idea of maturing, and again parallels with POTO without being overtly similar -- Christine matures from a young, unknown singer into a strong, empowered woman to spend the rest of her life with Raoul, and Alina is maturing from the "jumping bean" that many dismiss her as (whether that's true or not is another argument) into an artist of her own right without being over the top and showing everyone that "I am an artist!". Alina seems to be very introverted and quiet, and has mentioned Masaru as a true friend for her, especially as she had to leave her home city and friends and family behind. She is not an overly showy person or naturally extroverted, and such a program would not fit her. This is why a subtle but classy program such as this works for her, at least in my opinion.

Well, I would not definitely not call this program “subtle.”

I do agree with the glass breaking to be adding drama and interest, but my problem with it was that it was jarring and didn’t really fit in with what she did just next. The step sequence to me is a lot less thoughtful and musical than the Black Swan program was in general. The 3F is timed perfectly and the Rippon really adds a lot to the impression, but again, what does it have to do with anything else in the program?

(I did not think the 3Lz+3Lo or 2A were particularly well placed.)

But I just don’t get the overarching impressions you do, at all. The program as a whole to me feels like a disjointed mess even though the individual sections are all choreographed well. (Well, except for the StSq; I just think it sucks.) And as a result it doesn’t allow her to really perform it well— she switches from this mood to that with little chance to ever get into it and I think she suffers from it. In fact I thought her only strong moment, performance wise, was the the fist with the sound effects.

As for the more meta elements, I don’t think it’s good to heavily rely on such things when putting any program together— are the judges and be audience from the outside all supposed to be intimately familiar with the narratives within Alina’s fandom and their impressions of her, as opposed to their own?

She does have a great sense of timing and she can execute her movements well enough to carry the feel of the music somewhat, regardless. In fact I think this program, and Alina herself, is quite strong from an IN standpoint. But I still just think it’s really terribly put together program and no amount of IN can save that— in the end, I’m left with a disjointed series of music cuts and choreographic sections with no unifying purpose that are dragging down a good skater’s performance abilities with them.

Edit: Also we are all topic:

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Yeah, I don't think it's done the best it can be but I like the theme they are going with. The music cuts of course could be better but they're fine the way they are, imo.

 

[BillNeal]

To me, the glass shattering and the fist convey a sense of "breaking free" similar to how Christine breaks free of Erik and his entrapments. It also provides drama and brings back interest -- perhaps Daniil knows how much people are bored by POTO and lull off into familiar music -- until they hear such an unconventional noise as glass breaking. I think the program isn't even about POTO itself but of the idea of being fierce, of being yourself. It's about Alina finding herself and her style of skating. But the beauty to me is that they leave it up for interpretation and someone else can have a totally different idea of what it's about. To me, that makes figure skating more accessible and it makes her skating more accessible to different groups of skating fans, both her fans and her... non-fans. The program also plays with the idea of maturing, and again parallels with POTO without being overtly similar -- Christine matures from a young, unknown singer into a strong, empowered woman to spend the rest of her life with Raoul, and Alina is maturing from the "jumping bean" that many dismiss her as (whether that's true or not is another argument) into an artist of her own right without being over the top and showing everyone that "I am an artist!". Alina seems to be very introverted and quiet, and has mentioned Masaru as a true friend for her, especially as she had to leave her home city and friends and family behind. She is not an overly showy person or naturally extroverted, and such a program would not fit her. This is why a subtle but classy program such as this works for her, at least in my opinion.

I appreciate the thought you put into your answer. However, doesn't Alina skate to Think of Me immediately after shattering the glass, which is a song that contains lyrics where Christine explains to Raoul the hold that the Phantom has on her? Putting a mash-up of POTO songs together doesn't showcase any style. Rather it seems to me like a throwing in everything but the kitchen sink approach to choreography. It's not very subtle but actually very chaotic (which I guess you can argue is fitting for POTO). Leaving things to interpretation is nice, but the audience needs some guidance; hence purpose in the composition is important. Switching between different songs for one or two elements actually gives her little room to interpret the music. Only in the step sequence is she able to express her character more. I blame Daniil mainly for giving her this program and I believe Alina can showcase herself a lot better given some much better material.

 

[DaNiCG]

I need to see all programs before so its not complete, also Im a single kinda girl

Men:
Hanyu (he is obviously going to be, unless he is injured, is Hanyu)
Uno
Chen
Jin

Ladies
Medvedeva
Zagitova
Higuchi

Ice Dance / I dont really follow it lately, and without the Shibsibs...

I dont feel confident adding someone else, too many changes to be sure who is making it

this is going to be a very interesting season

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I appreciate the thought you put into your answer. However, doesn't Alina skate to Think of Me immediately after shattering the glass, which is a song that contains lyrics where Christine explains to Raoul the hold that the Phantom has on her? Putting a mash-up of POTO songs together doesn't showcase any style. Rather it seems to me like a throwing in everything but the kitchen sink approach to choreography. It's not very subtle but actually very chaotic (which I guess you can argue is fitting for POTO). Leaving things to interpretation is nice, but the audience needs some guidance; hence purpose in the composition is important. Switching between different songs for one or two elements actually gives her little room to interpret the music. Only in the step sequence is she able to express her character more. I blame Daniil mainly for giving her this program and I believe Alina can showcase herself a lot better given some much better material.

Hmm. I'm not very familiar with POTO, so I can't say anything about the songs. I think the subtlety is in the message, not the actual steps themselves. Rather than Zhenya's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, for example, or Kaori's Amelie (I like both of these programs) it's less in-your-face and I think it's designed to show that part of her personality, the quieter girl with the fierce personality once you get to know her. And I do think that the chaos fits POTO and the theme. IMO, I'd rather have less guidance and more room for interpretation (in any program) because I'm more likely to like it if there's multiple ways to interpret it.

 

[DaNiCG]

topic:

Honestly this conversation is very interesting, but theres a thread to discuss programs, and another one to discuss Alina's, FS is a subjective program so what some feel may not be the same, also if you are a fan of the skater you are going to feel it deeply than the non-fan, sadly thats how it is, we can all agree that Alina is a fantastic skater whom deserve better cuts on her program

//

also this thread also includes Junior Grand Prix? or just senior?