2018-19 Ladies' power ranking

[chopinskate]

I think more importantly than winning GPF, Rika needs two clean skates at GPF to get her PCS/GOEs up. I think she has more than a fighting chance for GPF gold, but she may not see the payoff until Worlds. IDF shows that she's thinking smartly about how to navigate her free if things go wrong. Her SP is a liability program-wise, so I'm interested in seeing how it all plays out.

Agreed, 100%.

I stand by this:

Pretty much this is what I have to add to this discussion. I do think Zagi is the one to beat at worlds, if only because she is clearly the Number One in the judges' eyes currently, but Kihira has a big chance to establish momentum by winning IdF, being on the podium at the GPF, winning JNats, and then being on the podium at 4CCs.

It's all a string of Ifs, but it could happen. And the judges seem to be willing to acknowledge Zagi's flaws when she's handed tech calls in terms of PCS, even though it's still too high with those programs, and the judges seem willing to go big on Kihira when her LP is clean. Her PCS will already rise for IdF if she's clean (or be around the same at least, if we are to correct for home inflation).

For the rest: Sakamoto is cool, but meh meh meh at everyone else at being entirely boring. It can shake out differently by worlds, but there's nothing interesting in terms of development or programs for any of the others, and the competition barring disaster seems entirely between Zagi and Kihira.

 

[BillNeal]

If the tech panel is strict at GPF, we might see the following podium at GPF:

1. Rika Kihira
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
3. Alina Zagitova

Could happen as the panels have been much stricter with edge calls and URs on the GP this season. Even the OGM is being called out on her URs, which evens out the reputation scoring somewhat. The least affected would be Rika and Liza. Liza has been gaining momentum through the season and is upping her tech, so silver is very possible. If Rika can get her SP issues sorted out and skates the LP NHK style, she should be the clear winner.

 

[moriel]

If the tech panel is strict at GPF, we might see the following podium at GPF:

1. Rika Kihira
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
3. Alina Zagitova

Could happen as the panels have been much stricter with edge calls and URs on the GP this season. Even the OGM is being called out on her URs, which evens out the reputation scoring somewhat. The least affected would be Rika and Liza. Liza has been gaining momentum through the season and is upping her tech, so silver is very possible. If Rika can get her SP issues sorted out and skates the LP NHK style, she should be the clear winner.

Not really. With a strict pannel, Liza would be first and Rika and Alina would be tied for second if skate clean.

 

[lzxnl]

Not really. With a strict pannel, Liza would be first and Rika and Alina would be tied for second if skate clean.

How do you think the judging would change Rika's score? Her jumps, if clean (and they can be), aren't UR and if she fixes her damned step sequence and spins she shouldn't get pinged on those. Alina's 3Lo, amongst others, looks a little shaky to me.

 

[[email protected]]

How do you think the judging would change Rika's score? Her jumps, if clean (and they can be), aren't UR and if she fixes her damned step sequence and spins she shouldn't get pinged on those. Alina's 3Lo, amongst others, looks a little shaky to me.

In fact Rika URs. She was forgiven during SP on her combo which had no better landing than Sotskova's but she was not forgiven during the free. Liza does not UR and won't get deductions even under tough panels. Liza's jump GOE should be higher than Rika's.

 

[BillNeal]

Not really. With a strict pannel, Liza would be first and Rika and Alina would be tied for second if skate clean.

Liza didn't UR on the GP, although she did get two UR calls in Finlandia on her +3T. Rika did get some UR calls on the GP but she has a BV advantage over Liza with 3F in both programs and 2 3A in the free. Rika had a 4.5 BV advantage in the free alone over Liza at NHK. I don't think Liza is doing 2 3A and a 3F in her free for GPF to make up the BV.

Alina's jumps are looking more dubious with each passing competition. She has had 3Lz<,3F<, and 3Lo< called over two GPs (her 3Lo< at Helsinki was generous too as it was really 3Lo<<). Her Lutz edge is shallow at best. It's good that the tech panel is opening up their eyes and being more fair to her competitors, who unfortunately don't benefit from OGM bonus.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

If Rika can get her SP issues sorted out and skates the LP NHK style, she should be the clear winner.

Not if Alina also skates two clean programs, then they'd be close. Alina tends to get better as the season goes on - it was even this way in juniors. So I think it is still anyone's fight.

 

[BillNeal]

Not if Alina also skates two clean programs, then they'd be close. Alina tends to get better as the season goes on - it was even this way in juniors. So I think it is still anyone's fight.

Last season, she peaked at Euros. She lost to Osmond in the SP at GPF and was off the podium at Worlds, 5th behind Kostner. This season, her strongest skates were at Nebelhorn and her GP performances have been lacklustre. I'm hoping Alina can put in two clean performances including fully rotated jumps as well and not just win on reputation, rather than on merit.

 

[Osmond4gold]

Last season, she peaked at Euros. She lost to Osmond in the SP at GPF and was off the podium at Worlds, 5th behind Kostner. This season, her strongest skates were at Nebelhorn and her GP performances have been lacklustre. I'm hoping Alina can put in two clean performances including fully rotated jumps as well and not just win on reputation, rather than on merit.

It certainly didn't happen last season, Bill. More splat than peak. Perhaps the poster was thinking juniors? As I don't follow juniors, not sure...

 

[sweetice]

If the tech panel is strict at GPF, we might see the following podium at GPF:

1. Rika Kihira
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
3. Alina Zagitova

Alina will start the GPF with, more or less, a ridiculous advantage of 12 points of PCS over both of them, while standing still. And GOEs... oh god, the GOEs...

Seriously, we can't dream about it.

 

[Fluture]

It certainly didn't happen last season, Bill. More splat than peak. Perhaps the poster was thinking juniors? As I don't follow juniors, not sure...

As someone who likes both Alina and Kaetlyn and might be a bit more objective: Alina indeed peaked late last season. She peaked at Euros and the Olympics. Her GPF performance wasn‘t perfect, that‘s why if anyone has great chances to beat her this year, it might be then. But if she repeats what she has done last year and is in the same shape for the most important competitions (Euros and Worlds), then it will be hard to compete with her. Not that I wouln’t want it, in fact, I love Rika so I‘m all in for an exciting rivalry but Alina was stellar at Euros and Olympics last year. She bombed Worlds pretty hard and Kaetlyn rightfully won but that shouldn’t diminish how virtually perfect she was at the other two competitions. People don‘t have to like Alina but they should probably still see the obvious. Which is, that Alina 1) had a wonderful season last year and 2) might be struggling a bit more due to growth issues this year but is STILL the highest ranked skater entering the GPF. And that with performances that weren‘t even close to perfect. So, her scoring potential is huge. She isn‘t unbeatable, that‘s true but I‘d say it‘s pretty hard to take the gold away from her.

 

[Ziotic]

Alina will start the GPF with, more or less, a ridiculous advantage of 12 points of PCS over both of them, while standing still. And GOEs... oh god, the GOEs...

Seriously, we can't dream about it.

I’m not sure that she will have the same type of advantage in Canada. They have notoriously strict panels and she’s only been called for some of her UR this GP season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they call most of the UR on all the skaters at GPF.

I also think the Japanese ladies will have a sort of “home ice” advantage over the Russians as there is a large Japanese population in Vancouver.

 

[BillNeal]

I’m not sure that she will have the same type of advantage in Canada. They have notoriously strict panels and she’s only been called for some of her UR this GP season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they call most of the UR on all the skaters at GPF.

I also think the Japanese ladies will have a sort of “home ice” advantage over the Russians as there is a large Japanese population in Vancouver.

People also need to remember that Zagitova's scores, including that gratuitous world record score at a B event, were all received from competitions within Europe this season. Her competitors at the GPF have all competed on different continents this season and have not always benefited from home continent scoring...

 

[Fluture]

After the ISU changed the rules to reduce Alina's advantage, she still set three world records. She comes into the GPF ranked #1. Can anyone beat a clean Alina? I don't think so.

As a fan of Alina, I still don‘t think she is unbeatable, even if clean. I do think that it‘s incredibly tough to beat her, however. She is the clear and obvious number 1 right now and anyone who doesn‘t realise this is a bit delusional honestly. I also see the potential of Rika Kihira, though. She has all the goods to compete with Alina. I don‘t know wether she‘s truly ready to beat her yet, however. She has shown this season that she‘s learned a lot regarding mental strength and her competitiveness has become better quite a bit. She is thinking on her feet now, as she showed in France. However, her SP is a big weakness as she hasn‘t yet landed the 3A cleanly, I believe. Alina, with a SP like she had in Russia, would gain a significant advantage over her already. So, I don‘t know whether Rika is quite there yet. She is on the right path, certainly but people shouldn’t put so high expectations on her to beat Alina now and all the time from then on. She came a long way since last season, give her some time. For now, I think Alina will win GPF. The real showdown between her and Rika will be at Worlds, that‘s what my feeling is telling me at least. And I‘ll be excited to see it.

 

[yume]

Last season, she peaked at Euros. She lost to Osmond in the SP at GPF and was off the podium at Worlds, 5th behind Kostner. This season, her strongest skates were at Nebelhorn and her GP performances have been lacklustre. I'm hoping Alina can put in two clean performances including fully rotated jumps as well and not just win on reputation, rather than on merit.

Unfortunately, some people still can't come to terms with the result at Worlds and give credit where credit is due. If there is anyone who "tends to get better as the season goes on," it would be the reigning World Champion.

All her wins were fair this season so far. She was overscored in PCS but even if you cut 5 points in each program, she would have still win. If she was overscored to sky and really protected, she wouldn't have get a single UR call. However, she got basically destroyed on TES in her home country, no less. So Zagitova may have some weaknesses like everyone, but she stills strong and is strong competitor. A bombed free at worlds last season doesn't mean that she doesn't skate better as the season goes on, even if you want to think the contrary. Weird to think that Osmond who never did a clean competition and clean free program in her life, and bombed far far far far far far far far more programs than Zagitova, is more a skater who get better through the season than Zagitova.

 

[rachno2]

It's OK. Zagi will always be an OGM.

I'm not even a Zagi fan, but it's just getting ridiculous and sad.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I’m not sure that she will have the same type of advantage in Canada. They have notoriously strict panels and she’s only been called for some of her UR this GP season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they call most of the UR on all the skaters at GPF.

I really don’t think Canada has anything to do with who gets selected to the Tech Panel. The ISU takes care of that and I’m near certain it’s done by a drawing.

 

[chopinskate]

Kaetlyn is a fantastic skater.

https://media.giphy.com/media/3og0IRh8xW8eTPPRks/giphy.gif

I thought she was perfectly ordinary who just looked better than she was in a weak field, now that we're navigating these waters.

In the case of Kaetlyn's so glorious olympic gold, she earned it by delivering the worst performance of her team.

To her credit though, the worst IMO came from her team mate Patrick Chan. She was second worst.

 

[yume]

But you're already discrediting her right after. People need to practice what they are pretending to preach.

Then i'm discrediting every skater that have an olympic team medal......and posters who use those medals to say that X is better than Y.

 

[Fluture]

This is starting to become: :yawn: