2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[karina17]

France is known for strict judging? I thought Canada was the harshest one... :think:

Sorry, you’re right! I got them mixed up: Canada is the one known for strict judging, and France is the one known for having messy logistics: I remember people complaining about wet ice and cheap plastic stars for medals last year. And people complaining about ticket sales this year. Oh well, what can you do?

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Well, I don‘t want to say anything bad about Leonova so I‘ll keep it short: Alena seems to constantly deteriorate while Sima is actually looking like she’s improving. She hasn‘t had many chances to go to major international senior events and she is still pretty young. I think she‘d deserve it. Maybe not more than Leonova who should get praise for still being around - credit where credit due - but Sima would be the more interesting one. But that‘s just my opinion.

Congrats to Alena anyway.



I‘m also still hoping, of course. And I wish her good luck and believe in her. She knows it won‘t be easy so I hope her and Brian work out a plan for this next event.

Agreed, and it also means that Leonova makes nationals over a stronger skater, like Tarusina or Gubanova, which I can’t agree with ...

 

[moriel]

Despite her 3A Rika didn't make it to the JGPF podium last year.
If Evgenia skates clean, her FP score would be around 150. Even though some other girls have technically more difficult programs, there is still a considerable PCS gap.
Anyway, I know my opinion is totally biased towards Zhenya

Actually no. Zhenya's FP score will not be around 150.
Yep, it was in 150-ish last years, when she had programs crammed with transitions and difficult entries and exits. It is not the case this year, and it hurts her GOE's and PCs. Realistically, at france, she can skate both SP and FS clean, but that will not be 150, more like a 140-145. Maybe 147 if friendly tech pannel, they seem to be hammering her hard with calls.

If Zhenya skates clean, she will podium, thats for sure. Id say even that skating clear ensures Zhenya a top 2 finish there.


Id's say Zhenya's max scores this year could be, realistically, something like this:
SP:
TES: 36.78 (from ACI) + 1.5 (clean 2A with 1 GOE) + 0.5 (uncalled Lz) + 0.5 (StSq4)
PCS: 34.2 (from ACI) + 2 (for clean skate and overall improvement)
That is roughly 75.5.
FS:
TES: 66.52 (from SC) + 0.5 (uncalled Lz) + 3.0 (another uncalled Lz) + 2.5 (clean 3Lo) + 1.25 (FCCoSp4) + 1.25 (CCoSP4)
PCS: 70.56 (from SC) + 2 (for clean skate and overall improvement)
Total score around 147.5
and a total of: 223

Notice that those scores have some conditions (uncalled lutzes) and a lot of work (spins and step sequence lv4). But ok, this all is done for France and the tech pannel is lenient.

Meanwhile, a clean Kihira could score:
SP: 70.79 (Nepela) + 6 (clean 3A) + 0.5 (3Lz in second half)
FS: 147.37(Nepela) + 1.5 (clean 3S)
total: 226

Imho, a clean skate from Zhenya will not automatically win, she will still depend on Kihira to not skate clean. Imho, Alina is the only one who can beat clean Kihira this season, mostly thanks to her difficult programs which enable high GOE and PCs, and her reputation.
Of course we cannot really access probabilities of clean skates by everybody to happen.

 

[moriel]

Sorry, you’re right! I got them mixed up: Canada is the one known for strict judging, and France is the one known for having messy logistics: I remember people complaining about wet ice and cheap plastic stars for medals last year. And people complaining about ticket sales this year. Oh well, what can you do?

wasnt france the one that had pidgeons on the rink too?

 

[Fluture]

wasnt france the one that had pidgeons on the rink too?

Pidegons... the birds or is there any other translation? They had birds on the rink? Oh dear, france is really a messy GP lol...

 

[LenaRadiFan]

I know that this does not add anything to the discussion but Elena will be skating at art on ice again this year and I'll probably will be able to go watch

https://www.instagram.com/p/BpULgZaBi7i/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=cmbkmzd93z21

 

[balabam]

We don't really know, how this process of replacing is undergoing.
Should Japan choose anybody? Or anybody who is registered in season best list in some relevant position?

For Japan it's, someway, winning situation. They choose the highest Russian on the SB list with considerable lower scoring potential now than other (lower ranked) Russians. So she can't endanger Japanese ladies in the competition (less than Sima now), but she is really lovely and entertaining performer at the same time (more than Sima).

As we has learned from Russian cup stages, there are other girls with higher scoring potential than Sima or Alena (senior GP eligible). OK, with less to none international experience, which plays a little bit against them, but still: Gulyakova, Nugumanova, Gubanova, Talalajkina, Shilenko. If I am FS association of Russia, I would do some politics and try to send Gulyakova, which is best of them this season and has 210 pts form (OK, when components internationally will be lower, 200+ form, which is still something that nobody except Zagitova and Tuktamysheva has achieved this season).

There is one problem, when Leonova was gifted with that spot , she is automatic qualifier for Russsian Nationals. There is only five spots left for ladies who have no GP assignment or that reached JGP final. So after Leonova get that spot, there are maybe 10 arguably better girls, but no nationals for them. And this is unjustice and for anybody, who is following all that ladies trying to the their best in highly competetive russian enviroment, this is really sad.

So, if I am Rusian fed and can do some politics, I would send Gulyakova, the best of the rest now, already qualified for Nationals with two Russian cup victories, and there will be no harm for other ladies and she has real chance for GP podium. But if Japan can deny it, I am totaly out

 

[DenissVFan]

Well, I don‘t want to say anything bad about Leonova so I‘ll keep it short: Alena seems to constantly deteriorate while Sima is actually looking like she’s improving. She hasn‘t had many chances to go to major international senior events and she is still pretty young. I think she‘d deserve it. Maybe not more than Leonova who should get praise for still being around - credit where credit due - but Sima would be the more interesting one. But that‘s just my opinion.

Congrats to Alena anyway.

Based on the most recent results, it is Anastasia Gulyakova who deserves a GP the most out of the Russian skaters with no spots (and even more than Panenkova and Tsurskaya and perhaps even Konstantinova). Besides, she's had fewer international competitions than Serafima and Alena L. However, this is not how spots are awarded and Leonova is #30 in the ranking and I'm just happy that NHK chose somebody from the top of the substitution list instead of from the bottom (this whole substitution process should have clear rules but that's another matter). Ideally, I'd like all of Leonova, Sakhanovich, Mikhailova, Gulyakova, Gubanova and Pogorilaya to have a spot but we know it's not possible.

Sakhanovich and Tarusina are assigned to Inge Solar Memorial, so hopefully they'll get good scores there. And hopefully Gulyakova will get either Tallin Trophy or Golden Spin.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

My problem is not with Leonova getting a GP spot - good on her for getting one at her age. It's that she'll automatically qualified to nationals and will be there ahead of a skater who objectively deserves it more based upon scores and performances this season - skaters like Tarusina (who should've been automatically qualified too but that's another matter ), Vasilieva, Gubanova, Nugumanova, Talalaikina, etc.

 

[DenissVFan]

My problem is not with Leonova getting a GP spot - good on her for getting one at her age. It's that she'll automatically qualified to nationals and will be there ahead of a skater who objectively deserves it more based upon scores and performances this season - skaters like Tarusina (who should've been automatically qualified too but that's another matter ), Vasilieva, Gubanova, Nugumanova, Talalaikina, etc.

This is a problem with the process of the qualification for the Russian nationals, though. Ideally they should add a flight or two of skaters because this year many very good skaters may not qualify. Russians love figure skating, so I'm sure they would like to see more of their skaters at nationals. Where are they to find motivation to continue if even with pretty strong tech they can't make it to their own nationals? I'd like to see Talalaikina there; she had a few good skates in the recent weeks and she could even get a decent place at a GP but I guess people who don't really watch local competitions haven't even heard of her. And she beat Leonova btw.

 

[TGee]

I wouldn't be so sure. Rika Kihira has three 3As, and though she doesn't always hit all of them consistently, when she does they are beautiful, high scoring elements. Mai Mihara has scoring potential equal to Medvedeva, and I wouldn't completely count a clean Bradie Tennell out either. I don't think it will be an easy win for her.

Kind of repeating myself here, but Zhenya's in a much better situation with her second GP than Liza.

Yes, Rika when on has dangerous BV and GOE , but PCS not so much.

Mai Mihara's FS at Nebelhorn scored within a point of Zhenya's at Skate Canada International, but the CS events in Europe were less strictly called by the tech panels and more generously scored by judges.

Generally, the by the GPs so far, the Japanese ladies are continuing to struggle with URs, although Satoko took Skate America despite that.

Bradie Tennell seemed to have peaked early at Autumn Classic International. And even there, her FS had two jumps with < and one !. Her showing before a home crowd was not as hoped.

All together, not easy, but doable, especially with another month of training under her belt.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I do think they should add another flight, but that means that they have to fly six more skaters (per discipline!) to Saransk. But it seems to be the only reasonable solution to having more than 20 really, really good ladies who could challenge for international podiums.

 

[Skater Boy]

”We could come up with programs with which she can win specific competitions, but I look at the bigger picture, to the future.“

So, this is a bit reassuring, indicates that they‘re fully aware of what they‘re doing. That they know there could be a better layout at the moment, that could easily help her to get bigger scores. I‘m still not sure their strategy is the right one because Zhenya is not Yuzu or Yuna and competition in Russia is so tight, they need to also focus on not losing the momentum. But at least they seem to know how to make programs that ensure a win and I hope they‘ll design it that way for France to ensure Zhenya a ticket to the final... I‘m a bit sceptical about all this but I‘m willing to be patient - for Zhenya’s sake, not Orsers. And it‘s good to hear he helped her cope with the terrible short program that has really shook her up.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MDfuA7lldg8

She says it really was a terrible experience for her and I‘m sure it wasn‘t easy for her to recover and come back with a good FS. As much as I‘m personally not satisfied with Brian‘s approach at the moment, I see that he‘s a supportive coach and Zhenya is happy training with him. And he seems to have a plan. Let‘s hope it works out...

Brian has been given many gifted skaters. He has two in particular Evgenia and Jason. I guess we will have to wait and see. I really hope for Evgenia to pull through. COping with puberty is hard let alone in a new country. Also, it is kind of sad how you can see Russia is treating her like disposable paper plates. Next year are some very talented ladies and she probably will be off the world team and Alina may no longer even be number 1. No wonder there are talks of Alena Leonova "still skating at her age". Where is Maria Butyrskaya ??? LOL. I wonder if POGO will get to go to Nats. Is she even skating at a B event? I just don't like the thought of your 18 and you are finished. But then again s uch talent in Russia and Japan.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Pogorilaya is skating at stage 4. If she does well there and at stage 5, she will make nationals. But at this point, it appears to be kind of doubtful that she will, especially with Leonova having an automatic spot now.

 

[vesperalvioletta]

Kind of repeating myself here, but Zhenya's in a much better situation with her second GP than Liza.

Yes, Rika when on has dangerous BV and GOE , but PCS not so much.

Mai Mihara's FS at Nebelhorn scored within a point of Zhenya's at Skate Canada International, but the CS events in Europe were less strictly called by the tech panels and more generously scored by judges.

Generally, the by the GPs so far, the Japanese ladies are continuing to struggle with URs, although Satoko took Skate America despite that.

Bradie Tennell seemed to have peaked early at Autumn Classic International. And even there, her FS had two jumps with < and one !. Her showing before a home crowd was not as hoped.

All together, not easy, but doable, especially with another month of training under her belt.

Of course, yeah. I don't think it's an impossible win for her. I just don't think it'll be a gimme either.

Liza on the other hand though :hopelessness: Our Empress is going to need every ounce of TES that she can possibly muster to eke out a win. Unless she ups her free skate technical content, it's going to be a very tall order.

 

[moriel]

Pidegons... the birds or is there any other translation? They had birds on the rink? Oh dear, france is really a messy GP lol...

not sure if it was france, but there was a gp that had pidgeons, the birds, flying around the rink.
I mean, you watching the replays and all you can pay attention to is a slowmo bird

 

[chopinskate]

I mean, you watching the replays and all you can pay attention to is a slowmo bird

They had spectacular quad loops!

 

[lavenderblossom]

not sure if it was france, but there was a gp that had pidgeons, the birds, flying around the rink.
I mean, you watching the replays and all you can pay attention to is a slowmo bird

Behold. https://youtu.be/Ly2f-0LL8qM?t=335

To be fair to the French, a few weeks ago, there was a bird flying around the rink during the pairs at Finlandia.

 

[moriel]

Of course, yeah. I don't think it's an impossible win for her. I just don't think it'll be a gimme either.

Liza on the other hand though :hopelessness: Our Empress is going to need every ounce of TES that she can possibly muster to eke out a win. Unless she ups her free skate technical content, it's going to be a very tall order.

On the other hand, Liza already has a gold, so any podium finish will almost surely put her in the GPF. Even with a 1-4 her chances would be ok.
Btw, a 1-4 would beat a 2-3 on tiebreakers, so if Zhenya gets silver and Liza is 4th, Liza would be still ahead in the GPF "queue".

 

[vesperalvioletta]

On the other hand, Liza already has a gold, so any podium finish will almost surely put her in the GPF. Even with a 1-4 her chances would be ok.
Btw, a 1-4 would beat a 2-3 on tiebreakers, so if Zhenya gets silver and Liza is 4th, Liza would be still ahead in the GPF "queue".

Very true. I'm sure she'd like to win again, but she doesn't exactly need it.