2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[esteticlove]

Sasha did get the highest TES, she got 42.79 and Alina got 42.47

LOL, I thought it was the opposite. Still, I thought the difference would be about 1-2 points but it doesn't matter anymore.. Tha standings are right though. It was so sweet seeing Alina with her "little" team mates (Sasha and Alena) after the SP.

 

[nips]

Is already available some video from the press conference?

 

[moriel]

Evgenia has been solid in her practices, so I wouldn't necessarily count her out just yet since she theoretically has the ability to skate a high-scoring LP. It's disappointing that she has been so much worse in competition this season when she had been amongst the strong competitors in the past.

Zhenya's planned content for FS: 3Lz, 3S3Lo, 3F2T2T, 3Lo, 2A3Tx, 3Fx, 2Ax.
For a cleanish skate, she will get:
-75 PCs (she got 35 for SP with major mistakes)
- 45.6 = 5.9 + 9.2 + 7.9 + 4.9 + 8.25 + 5.83 + 3.63 jump BV
- 24.0 = steps and spins, all lv4 with GOE (we seen how rusfed gave her lv4s in SP).
- 10.0 = jump GOE (all +3)
that is 155 or so. But that is Zhenya giving a skate of her life. A realistic score for a clean FS would be 145.


We have the following senior eligible girls ahead of Zhenya:
Zagitova 80.62
Konstantinova 74.40
Samodurova 71.82
Leonova 70.79
Gubanova 70.54
Guliakova 68.99
Tsurskaya 66.35
Sotskova 65.73
Medvedeva 62.24

It is highly unlikely that Zagitova will score under 220. Her lowest FS score this season was 142, and she will get top PCs and GOE. To beat her, Zhenya would need a WR. That is unlikely, honestly
So Zhenya needs to beat those
Konstantinova scored between 114 and 135 in FS. Last nationals she got 144 for a clean FS. Id say her scoring range is 135-145 if clean.
Samodurova scored between 120 and 136 in FS this season. She is not as loved by rusfed as Konstantinova, but she is more consistent
The other girls are good, but not really top 3 senior contenders in case of a meltdown.

I'd say that clean Konstantinova will score 215-220, but she can also make mistakes, and then score 205-215. If Konstantinova is clean, Zhenya would need 150+ in FS, which is not doable this season. But then Stasya is not a consistency model, and she may double something or fall. 140+ then would be likely enough for Zhenya.
Kinda same for Sonia.
Basically, if Zhenya skates lights out, Konstantinova makes mistakes (sometimes she does) and Samodurova is tentative (sometimes she does) then Zhenya has a chance.


Last but not least, if Zhenya is lets say 3rd, chances are rusfed will sacrifice Liza.

 

[madison]

Zhenya's planned content for FS: 3Lz, 3S3Lo, 3F2T2T, 3Lo, 2A3Tx, 3Fx, 2Ax.
For a cleanish skate, she will get:
-75 PCs (she got 35 for SP with major mistakes)
- 45.6 = 5.9 + 9.2 + 7.9 + 4.9 + 8.25 + 5.83 + 3.63 jump BV
- 24.0 = steps and spins, all lv4 with GOE (we seen how rusfed gave her lv4s in SP).
- 10.0 = jump GOE (all +3)
that is 155 or so. But that is Zhenya giving a skate of her life. A realistic score for a clean FS would be 145.


We have the following senior eligible girls ahead of Zhenya:
Zagitova 80.62
Konstantinova 74.40
Samodurova 71.82
Leonova 70.79
Gubanova 70.54
Guliakova 68.99
Tsurskaya 66.35
Sotskova 65.73
Medvedeva 62.24

It is highly unlikely that Zagitova will score under 220. Her lowest FS score this season was 142, and she will get top PCs and GOE. To beat her, Zhenya would need a WR. That is unlikely, honestly
So Zhenya needs to beat those
Konstantinova scored between 114 and 135 in FS. Last nationals she got 144 for a clean FS. Id say her scoring range is 135-145 if clean.
Samodurova scored between 120 and 136 in FS this season. She is not as loved by rusfed as Konstantinova, but she is more consistent
The other girls are good, but not really top 3 senior contenders in case of a meltdown.

I'd say that clean Konstantinova will score 215-220, but she can also make mistakes, and then score 205-215. If Konstantinova is clean, Zhenya would need 150+ in FS, which is not doable this season. But then Stasya is not a consistency model, and she may double something or fall. 140+ then would be likely enough for Zhenya.
Kinda same for Sonia.
Basically, if Zhenya skates lights out, Konstantinova makes mistakes (sometimes she does) and Samodurova is tentative (sometimes she does) then Zhenya has a chance.


Last but not least, if Zhenya is lets say 3rd, chances are rusfed will sacrifice Liza.

I hope I am wrong, but after this short program, I dont see Evgenia skating clean. I am not sure what it is not working with her, in her preparation, training etc but surely it is something that bothers her.

 

[andromache]

I love Evgenia. She's my favorite Russian lady at the senior level. But objectively, even with a perfect LP, I do not think she should be sent to Euros/Worlds unless Stanislava AND Sofia bomb and lose to her overall.

Liza deserves to go and should not be sacrificed for anyone. Alina will obviously be going. Sofia probably deserves to go based on her absolute consistency this season (but I expect Rusfed to send Stanislava instead, unless she totally bombs, and even then they will probably send her.)

This made me laugh

On another note, I think it was really unfair giving the juniors Junior PCS (except Alena). Trusova's program (skating) was great, and so was Anna's. Is there really a 6 point difference between Alina and Eteri's juniors? Even Alena and Anna apart, Trusova with the same layout as Alina and better jumps only had a 0.32 TES advantage

Olympic champion/senior lady GOE inflation contributes to the TES score being so close.

 

[moriel]

I hope I am wrong, but after this short program, I dont see Evgenia skating clean. I am not sure what it is not working with her, in her preparation, training etc but surely it is something that bothers her.

She got 137 at SC. That would be 145+ at rusnats (higher PCs, higher levels, less calls)
Maybe she can.

 

[fabienne1996]

She got 137 at SC. That would be 145+ at rusnats (higher PCs, higher levels, less calls)
Maybe she can.

And that skate at sc was not clean either. So in this season we have not seen her scores with a complete clean programm

 

[Mawwerg]

We have the following senior eligible girls ahead of Zhenya:
Zagitova 80.62
Konstantinova 74.40
Samodurova 71.82
Leonova 70.79
Gubanova 70.54
Guliakova 68.99
Tsurskaya 66.35
Sotskova 65.73
Medvedeva 62.24

Tarusina should be available too. It's her third junior season.

 

[oatmella]

Some of these scenarios don’t seem at all likely to happen - and not sure how Evgenia is more deserving than the others currently ahead of her.

WR score is not possible.

 

[Vandevska]

Isn't it exactly the same scenario when Alina first entered the Russian nationals in 2016/2017? Between her and Zhenyas technical score there wasn't a big difference and Alinas layout was way more difficult. And of course Zhenya got some PCS support as well.

Since the PCS is kind of based on previous achievements, it makes sence that the world gold medalist and olympic champion would get some advantage.

Next years Sasha and Alena would have higher PCS and they will outscore new juniors like Kamila Valieva whose interpretation and musicality is maybe higher then their.

Every year all the same.

I didn't watch those nationals, but I went ahead and checked, and Alina had a PCS of 33.38 back then. I guess it's not a big difference, but it's still more than 1 point compared to Sasha and 2 compared to Anna. Taking into consideration the generous PCS in general today, I'd say they were still underscored, and it's not fair.

 

[flanker]

https://vk.com/video-97272391_456241616
Eteri reactions during RusNat SP

P.S.: btw, Daniil was swearing rudely during Kostornaya's fall

The Alyona part was so funny
He than made fun of her obviously when she left the ice

 

[Vandevska]

Unless Zhenya has the skate of her life and ends up higher overall than both Samodurova and Konstantinova (aka second as a senior after Alina excluding the juniors) I don't think they should even consider sending her to Euros/ Worlds instead of Liza. And I'm saying this as someone who has a lot of appreciation and love for her in my heart.

 

[Wheelz]

The Alyona part was so funny
He than made fun of her obviously when she left the ice

I really don’t like that guy at all. Why is a 27 year old man making fun of a 15 year old girl? How does that help Alyona?

 

[Arbitrary]

ET pretends to be a Jedi, Master level.
Not yet as it looks like...

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I really don’t like that guy at all. Why is a 27 year old man making fun of a 15 year old girl? How does that help Alyona?

I haven't seen the clip but is he actually laughing at her mistake? Because Alena looks to me like someone who will overanalyze every mistake and get them into her head too much (I am one such person) and perhaps he was helping her to realize that it was just a little mistake and not something to worry about?

I mean, if he truly was laughing AT her then that's another story. But I do wonder if he really was or not.

 

[flanker]

I really don’t like that guy at all. Why is a 27 year old man making fun of a 15 year old girl? How does that help Alyona?

Don't be a grump. It's normal in team of people such close that they make fun of each other. It's multiway thing (remember how Alina made fun of Daniil when he tried to catch the napkin). It means healthy environment when people make normal fun of each other. Alyona was smiling too, she is not touchy, so don't make a cause of that.

 

[LenaRadiFan]

I highly doubt that RusFed would sacrifice a quite consistent Liza that hasn't scored under 200 this season for Evgenia who just does not have a good season so far and could risk losing spots for russia.

 

[andromache]

I think the saddest part of all the Russian team shenanigans will be that Sofia has only a very small chance of making the team. She has more than earned it with her skating and consistency this season. But no matter how clean she skates, there will be efforts to push Stanislava over her (no matter how bad or messy she is in the LP, we'll see).

I just really want Sofia on the team.

 

[nips]

I didn't watch those nationals, but I went ahead and checked, and Alina had a PCS of 33.38 back then. I guess it's not a big difference, but it's still more than 1 point compared to Sasha and 2 compared to Anna. Taking into consideration the generous PCS in general today, I'd say they were still underscored, and it's not fair.

Well it was pretty much the same situation. Nationals 2017 Medvedeva scored 41,88 + 38,20
and Zagitova 40,88 + 33,38

even when Zagitovas technical content was more difficult.

Now is the difference in PSC between Alina and Alena not even 4 points and comparing to Trusova cca 6 points. So we cannot really complain Alina was overscored . Its just the junior´s path

 

[DenissVFan]

I highly doubt that RusFed would sacrifice a quite consistent Liza that hasn't scored under 200 this season for Evgenia who just does not have a good season so far and could risk losing spots for russia.

Evgenia's highest international score this season: 204.89. Liza's lowest international score this season: 202.85.

IMO, the only way Evgenia can get that spot is if she's the second senior.

I like them both, so I'd be happy with seeing both or either on the team, but sacrificing Liza this season would be unfair.