2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[Fluture]

In September on required control skatings EM will meet Tuktamysheva, Radionova, Konstantinova, Sotskova, Kostornaya, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Panenkova... + 5 more ladies with BV higher than her. Most likely on the RusNats she will not even enter the top five.
By the way ET has 3 Olympic champions.

Oh, good that you mention that. How could we forget Yulia? But still, only two Olympic champions: Alina and Yulia. Adelina wasn‘t coached by Eteri, Evgenia isn‘t Olympic Champion.

On the other topic: What. Just what. You really think Tuktamysheva, Radionova, Tsurskaya, Sotskova and Panenkova will be above Evgenia? If she doesn‘t mess up, I seriously doubt that. Zagitova, yes, could be. Kostornaya and Trusova (if she‘s allowed to compete), yes, also possible. But you can‘t forget that Russian Nationals is highly political. Medvedeva will get way more in PCS than any other skater other than Zagitova. Kostornaya and Trusova are still juniors and even though it might be possible that they beat Med (with Trusova that‘s really likely because no PCS difference can make up for that TES if she lands those quads) I still think that they will make sure Med‘s at least on the podium. At least this season. Below top five? Never. But we‘ll see. I hope I‘ll prove you wrong to be honest.

 

[yoloaxel]

So on the topic of the new GOE changes, which of the Russian ladies do we actually expect to be able to routinely hit +3 GOE? It requires: Very good take off and landing, very good jump height and distance, effortless throughout. Would Zagitova and Medvedeva even hit these, or would they be stuck at +1-+2 GOE? Would Tuktamysheva's stock raise massively because she would be able to +4 or +5 almost everything? Tsurskaya as well? I wonder how much jump height exactly is required. If Medvedeva and Zagitova can't ever get higher than +2 GOE on jumps the competition within Russia might change more dramatically than we expect. If these skaters would hit the "very good height and distance"-bullet point, then honestly almost every notable Russian skater will be able to and that's no concern.

It's going to be really interesting to see how strict they are and how they will judge jumps not. I'm very curious to see if a skater lik Tuktamysheva can actually improve a lot under the new system!

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Oh, good that you mention that. How could we forget Yulia?:

Forget about Yulia?

http://33.media.tumblr.com/ff5b7e0831f9d305b6af64114f26a0c1/tumblr_n8zbvkAzwK1tuatvvo2_250.gif

I’m reporting this post :roll5:

 

[moriel]

So on the topic of the new GOE changes, which of the Russian ladies do we actually expect to be able to routinely hit +3 GOE? It requires: Very good take off and landing, very good jump height and distance, effortless throughout. Would Zagitova and Medvedeva even hit these, or would they be stuck at +1-+2 GOE? Would Tuktamysheva's stock raise massively because she would be able to +4 or +5 almost everything? Tsurskaya as well? I wonder how much jump height exactly is required. If Medvedeva and Zagitova can't ever get higher than +2 GOE on jumps the competition within Russia might change more dramatically than we expect. If these skaters would hit the "very good height and distance"-bullet point, then honestly almost every notable Russian skater will be able to and that's no concern.

Evgenia: will hit +3 and higher due to her reputation.
Zagitova: will hit +3 and higher because no more backloading, which probably will enable higher quality jumps.
Tsurskaya and Tuktamysheva: are supposed to hit +5 on some of their jumps, but it will never happen
Radionova's jumps were messy before, and will remain messy after. She will remain in the 0 / +1 range

In short, my prediction is that judges will be judges.

 

[ErgoProxy]

So on the topic of the new GOE changes, which of the Russian ladies do we actually expect to be able to routinely hit +3 GOE? It requires: Very good take off and landing, very good jump height and distance, effortless throughout. Would Zagitova and Medvedeva even hit these, or would they be stuck at +1-+2 GOE? Would Tuktamysheva's stock raise massively because she would be able to +4 or +5 almost everything? Tsurskaya as well? I wonder how much jump height exactly is required. If Medvedeva and Zagitova can't ever get higher than +2 GOE on jumps the competition within Russia might change more dramatically than we expect. If these skaters would hit the "very good height and distance"-bullet point, then honestly almost every notable Russian skater will be able to and that's no concern.

I think the next season we will likely to see some experimental scoring so I don't even know how they will give out GOEs but probably the judges will get less and less conservative with their points as the season progresses. So, at least for now, I don't think any notable Russian skater would get negatively affected from the "very good height and distance" point. I think skating clean could affect scores even more due to its effect on PCS. It is riskier to predict Tuktamysheva's case if she includes 3A in her layout but I think Polina, with a less riskier layout than Tuktamysheva, might become a serious contender in the national competition if she can recover physically and mentally. And she switched to CSKA too, which, I guess, makes her case even more favorable for the national championship.

 

[lavieenrose]

I see a lot predict that this skater will get this GOE because huge/small jumps and everything... but when have judges been completely fair in their scoring ? It will still be a mess imo

 

[zounger]

Evgenia +4 on her main jumps. +3 on axel and lutz. Everyone else +3 max. I assume everyone clean.

 

[Mawwerg]

I've noticed this thread https://goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?73785-Female-skaters-taller-than-5%929-(175cm). So I have a question. How height Victoria Safonova is?

 

[Tyranid]

Radionova's jumps were messy before, and will remain messy after. She will remain in the 0 / +1 range

Is this some prophecy? Have you seen the future as the likes of Nostrodamus and Vanga? If you also know the results of future competitions, please PM me!

On a serious note, 0/+1??? She always got better GOE for landed jumps before and not all of them were messy. Check the protocols. But whatever, nobody likes Radionova here anyway. Shame.

 

[moriel]

Is this some prophecy? Have you seen the future as the likes of Nostrodamus and Vanga? If you also know the results of future competitions, please PM me!

On a serious note, 0/+1??? She always got better GOE for landed jumps before and not all of them were messy. Check the protocols. But whatever, nobody likes Radionova here anyway. Shame.

I like Radio. But her average GOE was always pretty low.

At her best, she was getting +1/+2 out of 3. She was never a +2/+3 skater.

Last season, CoC was her best competition. Her GOEs (out of 3)?

SP:
3Lz+3T: +0.3
3Lo: +1.1
2A: +0.7

FS:
3Lz+3T: +1.7
3F: +0.2
3Lz+1Lo+3S: +0.6
3Lo+2T: -0.3
2A: +0.6
3Lo: +1.1
2A: +0.8

Most of her jumps are pretty much either +0 or +1. Only one could count as a +2.

Now, the new rules are not really favorable to her, because her jumps have been pretty iffy always and she doesnt check most of the new goe bullets.

 

[russianfan]

so they've released a short video
https://www.instagram.com/p/BjolH_RhLZr/?taken-by=rossiya_airlines

https://pp.userapi.com/c844520/v844520259/85145/p9bwAhFu3wo.jpg
https://pp.userapi.com/c847220/v847220259/79e36/9hnuJ-dXNl0.jpg

 

[skatingfan200]

Evgenia: will hit +3 and higher due to her reputation.
.

Not only reputation, also quality.:agree2:

 

[Tyranid]

Now, the new rules are not really favorable to her, because her jumps have been pretty iffy always and she doesnt check most of the new goe bullets.

In a way, the rules are favorable to her since falls will be punished harder. Despite everything, Radionova is one of the very few single skaters who never bombed her programs (had more than 1 fall or pop). This cannot be said for Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Pogorilaya, Lipnitskaya, Sotskova, Tsurskaya (JWC 17) and also Zagitiva with her 3 fall World Championship performance.

Not only reputation, also quality.:agree2:

Except that her flutz and quite a few 2A/2A-2T-2T are not quality. She should have never gotten high GOE for those and hopefully won't in the future (she probably will anyway, so I'll have a hard time taking her tech score seriously).

 

[Caustica]

so they've released a short video
https://www.instagram.com/p/BjolH_RhLZr/?taken-by=rossiya_airlines

https://pp.userapi.com/c844520/v844520259/85145/p9bwAhFu3wo.jpg
https://pp.userapi.com/c847220/v847220259/79e36/9hnuJ-dXNl0.jpg

This is cool, but from my experience I almost never see the plane exterior as I walk on a bridge that directly connects the airport gate to the interior of the plane. I wish plane manufacturers would alter the flying experience slightly for as well, such as decorating the insides of the plane with the theme and showing sports videos in the inflight entertainment system!

 

[Shayuki]

Not only reputation, also quality.:agree2:

She can't really make use of the other qualities of her jumps unless she gets "Very good height" on the jump and if Medvedeva's jumps are very good height that enables quite a few other skaters to getting "very good height" as well.

Refer to: https://cdn.tribuna.com/fetch/?url=.../20/e75df5708cb2288443ee9af742b3d46b-full.png

In a way, the rules are favorable to her since falls will be punished harder. Despite everything, Radionova is one of the very few single skaters who never bombed her programs (had more than 1 fall or pop). This cannot be said for Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Pogorilaya, Lipnitskaya, Sotskova, Tsurskaya (JWC 17) and also Zagitiva with her 3 fall World Championship performance.


Except that her flutz and quite a few 2A/2A-2T-2T are not quality. She should have never gotten high GOE for those and hopefully won't in the future (she probably will anyway, so I'll probably have a hard time taking her tech score seriously).

She literally just had a 5 triple FS at Russian nationals without a single 3-3 combo.

 

[moriel]

Not only reputation, also quality.:agree2:

tbh i find debatable that she checks most of the new GOE bullets.

1) very good height and very good length (of all jumps in a combo or sequence) - her jumps are average. it should not check this one (see Osmond and Tuktamysheva for jumps that check this bulletpoint)
2) good take-off and landing - checked
3) effortless throughout (including rhythm in Jump combination) - her jumps are kinda muscled, but lets say checked

This means that she should not get any higher than +3.

4) steps before the jump, unexpected or creative entry - checked
5) very good body position from take-off to landing - checked
6) element matches the music - checked

So there is this thing - if judges fairly, she should not get anywhere higher than +3 due to the quality of her jumps.


Now see Tuktik, for example.
She can easily check the bullets 1,2,3, and then 1-2 of the last 3. Will she be getting her deserved +4/ +5s?


That is called "due to her reputation"

 

[moriel]

This is cool, but from my experience I almost never see the plane exterior as I walk on a bridge that directly connects the airport gate to the interior of the plane. I wish plane manufacturers would alter the flying experience slightly for as well, such as decorating the insides of the plane with the theme and showing sports videos in the inflight entertainment system!

I am happy, since i am an avid airplane stalker, and spend most of the time in the airport watching them land and take off.
But yep, interior decorations would be great too. Also, maybe showing sporting videos is a bit too much (not everybody likes them), but for example making performances of the athletes available for people to watch?

 

[skatingfan200]

She can't really make use of the other qualities of her jumps unless she gets "Very good height" on the jump and if Medvedeva's jumps are very good height that enables quite a few other skaters to getting "very good height" as well.

Refer to: https://cdn.tribuna.com/fetch/?url=.../20/e75df5708cb2288443ee9af742b3d46b-full.png

I should clarify, some jumps are very good (3S, 3Lo), her 2A is below average. The rest is average for me. I compare her to the 10 senior ladies.
Here is a good summary about her jumps.
https://curiouscat.me/chiburahakkai/post/474523967?1526239038

 

[Tyranid]

She literally just had a 5 triple FS at Russian nationals without a single 3-3 combo.

No.

She didn't fall or have any UR. The euler combos count as triple-triples, effectively. That's not bombing.

 

[Fluture]

Well, we need to take into account that "very good height" is debatable. What will poor Satoko do, now? I know some of Evgenia's jumps really shouldn't get 4+ GOEs (Lutz, Axel) but that's about it. Her Salchow and Loop have always been of a very good quality and there's nothing off about her flip or toe loops. She gets them done, at a reasonable height and lands them. Obviously Tuktamysheva, Daleman and Tsurskaya are the epitome of good height but you can't just give the GOE for good height only to them, can you? I'd say Evgenia's and Alina's jumps are of a good height. I'd say everything above Satoko's height could be considered as good.