2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[serephy]

Athletes have the right not to publicize injuries, illness, and family circumstances. I'm not sure why people feel insist on convincing themselves about whatever the reasoning is. If it is serious, she will come off the list. We all know none of the Russian assignments are firm until after the test skates are over.

And if Tarakanova deserves a second spot based on a competition in December, then the same reasoning would argue that Gubanova deserves one based on last year's Nationals. Neither is a complete argument, IMO. I'm sure Gubanova will only have a JGP if she looks ready, whether or not that happens in the same location as everyone else. And I don't see why anyone should be guaranteed a second event until after they have skated their first.

First I'm going to go back to my original caveat that there may well be a very good reason Gubanova has missed test skates in which case I don't think anyone here would blame her or argue she should lose her JGP spot....however it is also true that had, for example, Sisnitsyna or Vasilieva missed test skates they would be out of the JGP regardless of the reason.

I suppose the difference between Tarakanova and Gubanova right now is that Tarakanova showed up at test skates, yes her programs weren't ready and yes she had falls but she showed she was committed to this JGP season. The whole point of test skates is that ALL the girls on the junior team who wish to compete in the JGP show up. It's not fair to set one rule for the first 12 girls but then let the 13th girl break it (again I acknowledge there may be extenuating circumstances).

If the reason is really something minor such as skate problems as has been suggested, Fed people will simply go to the rink and watch her individually later.

This would be very reasonable and I would understand it....I just don't know that they would do it for some of the lower ranked girls.

 

[lavoix]

I found Tarakanova's SP to be really nice, love the spins! Her FP is way too busy and loud...

Trusova's SP is copy paste from Liptniskaya, however a really bad version, quite disappointing music cuts and choreography. Her FP is totally BEAST, but her spins look so laboured and slow!!! The music tends to get quite fast but she is moving really slow. They need to work on rhythm with her.

Shcherbakova has a glorious SP, my favourite thus far. Her LP is the exact opposite. Boring music which I've heard hundreds of times before. Bring back her old LP which was interesting and unique.

Kostornaya, I like the idea of the FP, but it has odd moments here and there. Interesting cuts from Romeo and Juliet. I feel like other skaters have done it better and this will be forgetful.

Kanysheva FP, a program I would have liked Anna to have used, very simple and nice cuts of music.

In conclusion, most of the programs choreographed by Daniil are a bit of a letdown this season.

 

[atsumiri]

The rules were officially changed a month later.

Be realistic.
Eteri knew everything she needed to long before "official congress". She even mentioned it on a press conference after WC.

 

[vorravorra]

If Gubanova just decided to not show up because she didn't feel like it was important enough

Has that happened ever, with anyone? Sounds ridiculous. Why don't CSKA skaters just miss all test skates then, including Senior ones, if they are that privileged?

Test skates are not something you get invited to and have the right to decline, you are told to show up and you do so, unless there is a good reason.

 

[bewitched]

Be realistic.
Eteri knew everything she needed to long before "official congress". She even mentioned it on a press conference after WC.

Well... I guess you are right.
In that case we just have to trust her team and hope for the best this season. I personally like Alina's program despite all the bashing it gets here. It's not a forgettable program. It will be interesting to compare it to Evgenia's jazz SP. The clash of the titans.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Any video of Guliakova at the test skates?

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

As much i agree for Gubanova on seniors, is really that a problem for them ?

The pattern for the last season was:
Three russian winners ( Trusova, Tarakanova, Panenkova ) on the first three events, and one second place.
Then, they give the second spot for the first winner, with another girl.
Another one ( Samodurova ) with the winner of the second event.
Another one ( Kostornaia ) with the winner of the third event.
Winners of the fifth and sixth event ( Samodurova and Kostornaia ), at the last.
No second chance for the silver medal of the first event ( Gulyakova ), but that because five russian ladies have won at their first event.

They have fourteen spots. If they want five skaters at max on the final, they can give four of them to others, so there is space for nine skaters.

Right now we know at least six of them for the first three events. Who can be leaved behind between Sinitsyna, Tarakanova, Vasilieva, Kostyuk, Guliakova and Chistiakova ? To me, the first three seem to have some advantages over the others. What do you think ?

I think the goal should be to get as many to the final as possible, which is 6. I've been saying all along that I believe 7 will get 2 spots, but lately I have been thinking they might decide to giving 8 girls initial spots and the highest 6 scorers get a second. This would solve the Tarakanova vs. Sinitsyna issue. Just give them both Canada and then they have 8 girls total with a spot, top 6 get a spot at the remaining 3 events. While I still believe giving 7 girls 2 spots is the best strategy (leaves room for 1 to bomb and 6 could still make it to the final), giving 8 initial spots would ensure that everyone who is deserving has at least one chance, and then the performances can determine the rest. And I believe we have 8 clearly deserving girls: everyone who has a spot so far+ Tarakanova and Sinitsyna.

Vasilieva is very talented but can never keeps together for a free skate. Guliakova doesn't get the PCS of the other girls and I think that plus her mistakes at the test skates will hold her down. I don't think either will get a spot unless one of the other girls bombs their first event and falls out of contention for the final, then the fed might decide to give the reserves a chance.

 

[Elucidus]

This whole problem of choosing between Sinitsyna and Tarakanova could've been avoided by just giving Gubanova the dang Rostelecom spot and putting Sinitsyna into Linz instead. Seems the Fed is still stupid.

They aren't stupid. You just don't get how most state organizations operates in Russia. All important decisions are made not with maximum efficiency in mind - they made with "what infuentional connections, whose interests and protegees I have to satisfy to grant that my position in power will remain as long as possible". In other words most likely Rostelecom spot reserved for Pogorilaya, Sakhanovich, Sotnikova or somebody else whose coach's interests RusFed feels obliged to satisfy this season. Also I am sure that Gubanova this season will become "second Konstantinova" - fulfilling the same role as her in blocking other juniors - because of the "debt" RusFed have for restraining her last season and her newly established connection with TAT.

 

[Elucidus]

they have a true genius on their hand with Sasha and two very, very promising talents with Anna and Alena, they‘re still only juniors. Next year will be interesting when they all turn senior

Wiil they? There are lot of intrigues, machinations and various selfish interests in ISU as well as RusFed -and there are lots of people who wouldn't be happy to welcome new 3-4 (or more) top russian juniors with high best scores in senior skating at once next season. It means lots of honored senior skaters (and most likely nonrussians) with "true woman skating" will be compelled to bid farewell to GP events for good. And ISU doesn't want russian domination in senior skating as well as it is now in juniors and transforming FS in analogue of gymnastics nowadays. Who will be watching (and most important - paying money and satisfy sponsors interests) GPF with only russian skaters there?
So I wouldn't be surprised at all if ISU strongly solicit RusFed to hold at least Trusova for a year in juniors.. or they can convene extraordinary congress to forbid woman quads or raising age quickly - of course due to health concerns only :sarcasm:

 

[madison]

Athletes have the right not to publicize injuries, illness, and family circumstances. I'm not sure why people insist on convincing themselves about whatever the reasoning is. If it is serious, she will come off the list. We all know none of the Russian assignments are firm until after the test skates are over.

And if Tarakanova deserves a second spot based on a competition in December, then the same reasoning would argue that Gubanova deserves one based on last year's Nationals. Neither is a complete argument, IMO. I'm sure Gubanova will only have a JGP if she looks ready, whether or not that happens in the same location as everyone else. And I don't see why anyone should be guaranteed a second event until after they have skated their first.

Exactly... Gubanova may get a spot if she looks ready even though she wasn't at the test skates. Remember, last season Kostornaya got the spot after winning Moscow Open, so everything is possible.
On the other hand, i am sorry to say, but judging on their performance at the test skates, Anna Shcherbakova and Tarakanova don't deserve a Jgp spot. But i suppose Anna will get a pass due to her potential quad lutz.

 

[Shayuki]

Exactly... Gubanova may get a spot if she looks ready eventhough she wasn't at the test skates. Remember last season Kostornaya got the spot after winning Moscow Open so everything is possible.

Kostornaya wasn't invited... She didn't just decide to not show up. There's a difference.

On the other hand, i am sorry to sauly but judging on their performance at the test skates, Anna Scherbakova and Tarakanova don't deserve a Jgp spot. But i suppose Anna will get a pass due to her potential quad lutz.

I think you either underestimate how many JGP spots are up for grabs or overestimate how bad Anna's performance there was. What it amounted to overall was her falling on a quad and popping one jump, which would have been a double becoming a single(2Lo became 1Lo). Which 7-8 skaters did you think performed better? I'd like to remind you that not everyone else had clean performances, either.

 

[cohen-esque]

Kostornaya wasn't invited... She didn't just decide to not show up. There's a difference.

We don’t know that Gubanova “just decided not to show up,” either; that’s a rumour engineered around an innocuous social media post that has apparently only taken a few hours to become almost fact.

I think you either underestimate how many JGP spots are up for grabs or overestimate how bad Anna's performance there was. What it amounted to overall was her falling on a quad and popping one jump, which would have been a double becoming a single(2Lo became 1Lo). Which 7-8 skaters did you think performed better? I'd like to remind you that not everyone else had clean performances, either.

In a real competition adding a 3Lz+3Lo+2Lo as the final and fourth, invalid combination would be the facepalm moment of the decade... but, it was probably good to show the Fed here that she was capable of it, this being the test skate. And, well... they did at least see the 4Lz in warmup. So yeah, I’m curious who else did so much better that she should be bumped off the team entirely?

 

[madison]

Kostornaya wasn't invited... She didn't just decide to not show up. There's a difference.

I think you either underestimate how many JGP spots are up for grabs or overestimate how bad Anna's performance there was. What it amounted to overall was her falling on a quad and popping one jump, which would have been a double becoming a single(2Lo became 1Lo). Which 7-8 skaters did you think performed better? I'd like to remind you that not everyone else had clean performances, either.

We don't know the reasons why she decided to not show up.
I suppose RusFed will make some changes in the jgp assignments after the test skates.
I think that Trusova, Kostornaya, Synitsina, Kanysheva would surely deserve one spot.

 

[Shayuki]

In a real competition adding a 3Lz+3Lo+2Lo as the final and fourth, invalid combination would be the facepalm moment of the decade... but, it was probably good to show the Fed here that she was capable of it, this being the test skate. And, well... they did at least see the 4Lz in warmup. So yeah, I’m curious who else did so much better that she should be bumped off the team entirely?

First of all, it was a 3Lz-3Lo-2T. And second, she always had at least one skate on the ice on the alleged "3F+1T", which to me wasn't even a jump - she never was aerial. Perhaps it'd receive negative GOE for the landing. Okay, actually the Flip gets +REP anyway so the final combo was an invalid element. Regardless... Showcase instead of a real competition. And being able to add a 3-3-2 combo to the end - With a 3Lo to boot - could actually be seen as a positive.

 

[Elucidus]

My personal evaluation.

4Lz +4 (11.50+4.60=16.10)
4T+3T +2 (13.70+1.90=15.60)
4T -1 (9.50-0.95=8.55)
2A +1 (3.30+0.33=3.63)
//
FCCoSp4 +3 (3.50+1.05=4.55)
3Lz+3Lo(x) +5 (11.88+2.95=14.83)
3Lz+Eu+3S(x) +4 (11.77+2.36=14.13)
CCoSp4 +4 (3.50+1.40=4.90)
3F(x) +4 (5.83+2.12=7.95)
FCSp4 +3 (3.20+0.96=4.16)
StSq4 +2 (3.90+0.78=4.68)

For me this FS would score 99.08. For a more lenient panel she might break 100 TES for this skate. Total BV would be 81.58 if she hits level 4 on everything. Changing the 2A to 3A would bring her 4.7 points extra on the BV.

ETA: finally seeing the complete StSq thanks to Elucidus!

I don't know are these protocols official or made by some fan - but I've found this recently:
https://s8.hostingkartinok.com/uploads/images/2018/08/55225c728633bb435791960754eba287.png
It seems you are quite generous with assessment ) And indeed we all forgot about new system trend - it lowered overall points to a degree with focus on quality of elements - so Trusova's new FP with 3 quads can be expected to cost less than her JWC skate with 2 quads actually.

 

[Elucidus]

I might have watched Anna's SP about 20 times now

OMG, you and Shayuki Just don't overeat it before season starts

So much better than her last season's SP. It'll be incredible!

A strong statement. I mean her last SP was pretty good. I don't feel that her new SP is THAT much better. I think it's more due to novelty feel and different style that can be more for your taste - let's compare them after we can see her actual program in costume with good camera at least.

 

[Sugar Coated]

Be realistic.
Eteri knew everything she needed to long before "official congress". She even mentioned it on a press conference after WC.

If I remember correctly she and Zhenya both made comments implying there would be rule changes that would lessen Alina’s advantage. That was right after the Olympics but after Medvedexit, Eteri didn’t seem so vocal about rule changes. And why wouldn’t they keep their Olympic winning strategy?

You think Eteri is the type that’s like, “it’s cool...we don’t need to practice your programs until mid summer. Then we’ll create our programs from scratch and let you begin to learn them and practice for a few weeks before test skates.” Those girls started learning and practicing their programs in April. Eteri makes them run thru programs 10 times a day so she absolutely would want them to start learning their programs as soon as they got back from their break.

I suspect that’s why Alena’s program is also disjointed. Sasha and Anna have quad(s) in their program so they didn’t have much to change as these jumps are in front. But the strategy for Alena to remain competitive was likely a backloaded program. Until that no longer offered a reasonable advantage and they decided to chop up and rearrange the program. Just like Alina’s.

 

[Elucidus]

No one seems to know anything.

There is a rumor that Gubanova had problems with her boots. Also there is one conspiracy theory that it's just excuse to let her postpone her JGP event to be able to participate in one without Eteri girls.

Test skates are not something you get invited to and have the right to decline, you are told to show up and you do so, unless there is a good reason.

Are there analogue of test skates in other countries besides Russia, I wonder?

 

[Ice Dance]

Are there analogue of test skates in other countries besides Russia, I wonder?

Yes.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Come on y’all

I’m sure if Anastasiia missed the test skate for any nefarious reasons she’ll be dealt with accordingly. If the fed gives her any breaks it will be with good reason I’m sure and lets keep in mind to someone who has been done a few disfavors from said federation.

As far as I know..until she actually shows up and skates at a JGP event she can be withdrawn and entered into senior events instead. I’m anxious to see what they do and I’m desperately hoping they find a way to get her into senior events this year. I think it is not only where she belongs but where she will find the most success for herself and the Russian team itself.