2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[atsumiri]

My point was the opposite actually, that if the change coaches the probability to move to seniors will be higher than if they stay with Eteri.

getting spots has nothing to do with coaches.
You just need to get higher scores than other girls. that's all.
Even Buyanova or TAT couldn't get a seniors GP spots for Konstantinova and Gubanova.

 

[DougDorsey]

sometimes she does not have completely precise control of her limbs

I think you're spot-on. Limb control seems to be a key factor. But I wonder if it's merely control, or if it's a need to over-use her limbs in order to garner the power necessary for rotation and elevation.

 

[Roast Toast]

I did realize that placements and scores would make all three of them very likely to move up and succeed on the senior GP. But a big factor of Zagitova's explosive rise this last season is that she won both her events, GPF, etc... They all have time to establish themselves as top tier skaters before Beijing, but I wondered if moving all three of them up at the same time would not be counterproductive: they would be each other's biggest competition, after all. I worry that with such a move either Anna or Alena would get the short end of the stick, so to speak, in terms of assignments, fed support, and so on.

 

[Amei]

I did realize that placements and scores would make all three of them very likely to move up and succeed on the senior GP. But a big factor of Zagitova's explosive rise this last season is that she won both her events, GPF, etc... They all have time to establish themselves as top tier skaters before Beijing, but I wondered if moving all three of them up at the same time would not be counterproductive: they would be each other's biggest competition, after all. I worry that with such a move either Anna or Alena would get the short end of the stick, so to speak, in terms of assignments, fed support, and so on.

I don't think it would be those 3 but the older skaters that would lose out; the current junior girls are pushing boundaries of doing jumps that no senior ladies are doing that includes the current Russian senior ladies. I do wonder if Eteri and co. consider that they should have held back some of the quads till the year of bejing where their competition wouldn't have enough time to catch up to them. Medevedeva and Zagitova both won because they were doing things no one else on the senior circuit was doing to rack up points by the tanos, and backloading 100%, with the Russian girls whipping out the quads in Jrs everyone in Seniors and training in juniors right now knows that this is coming and they won't be able to surprise them when they come into seniors.

 

[Shayuki]

Them doing quads isn't some "secret" that no one had ever thought about before. You can't just go "Oh they're doing quads, let me do quads also". And you can't even just practice to do the quads if you want to. It requires so many things of the skater. The correct type of skater's extremely difficult to find even within Russia's massive talent pool.

And do you seriously think that that's why Medvedeva and Zagitova won? Tanos and backloading? They'd have been top 2 regardless.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

It requires a really special combination to be able to do quads. You have to have the right body type, huge airtime, and insane rotation speed, not to mention a large level of fearlessness. Many people can talk about quads, but not many can actually do them.

 

[dante]

What happens if you don't know who your father is or if he's chosen not to be part of your life? Can you use your Grandfather's or a step parents? Is there a generic replacement? Most English surnames have their roots in jobs (Miller, Baker, Smith, Tanner, Wright) or Place names. For example my last name comes from an English dukedom (which is now extinct and a place). So could you be say Alexei Rostovitch (like being from Rostov?)

Technically, when the birth certificate is issued, the mother can tell any male name (you can claim that Rostov is a name too, but people will think you are crazy). When the father is unknown, mother's patronym is often taken, otherwise people rarely use anything other than the name of the biological father. I think first name and surname are changed more often than patronym, even after adoption.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

I get that RusFed's decisions regarding the assignments have been wishy washy in the past, but I would like to hope they have learned from their mistakes last season. And I believe we are seeing a more rational strategy to the assignments this season. 7 girls have been assigned and I don't think there will be any changes to these spots. After 7 they gave a repeat assignment, Shcherbakova's second event in Canada. This to me shows the intent to do a 7/7 or at worst 8/6 type of strategy. A score of 119 isn't optimal by any means, and there is a chance Tarusina could be bumped under an 8/6 strategy with that score IF everyone goes 1-2. But it makes absolutely no sense to give a second place finisher's spot to someone inconsistent like Vasilieva or Gulyakova who will have zero chance to make the final with one assignment. Yes this would would mean experience for someone like Vasilieva but it also takes away experience and an opportunity to skate in the final from Tarusina, who IMO is showing more potential.

RusFed knows they have 14 spots. Their mistake last year was they should have chosen the 7 or 8 strongest to hedge their bets on following test skates, given them all one initial assignment, and waited for a clearer picture as to who deserved a second after the events rather than handing initial spots out to anyone and everyone like it was candy. Samodurova and Kostornaia should have competed in the first few weeks rather than trying to squeeze them in at the end.

Trusova/Gulyakova
Tarakanova/Gubanova
Panenkova/Konstantinova or Fedichkina
Kostornaia/Samodurova

The 6 to receive a second spot would have been Trusova, Kostornaia, Tarakanova, Panenkova, Gulyakova, Samodurova, and we would have had an all Russian final. I believe we are already seeing a better strategy this year, so hopefully no one will get short-changed.

 

[[email protected]]

True. I did find it somehow brilliant that, given how their BVs could have stacked up at the Olympics because of this, though, Medvedeva still somehow beat Osmond. The Russian ladies either gather a huge base value, or build up a huge reputation to beat the ladies they're stacked up against. Can't always agree with some results, but gotta give it to them, they know how to work the system to beat everyone they're stacked up against. Osmond decided not to be stacked up against any Russian lady though, this year. Wonder whom they'll be defeating.

They will be beating everyone same as last season and the season before that.

 

[Shayuki]

Their mistake last year was they should have chosen the 7 or 8 strongest to hedge their bets on following test skates, given them all one initial assignment, and waited for a clearer picture as to who deserved a second after the events rather than handing initial spots out to anyone and everyone like it was candy. Samodurova and Kostornaia should have competed in the first few weeks rather than trying to squeeze them in at the end.

Kostornaya was not in their plans. And I'm honestly not sure if Samodurova was, either. Her results the season before were nothing earth-shattering.

 

[ancientpeas]

Technically, when the birth certificate is issued, the mother can tell any male name (you can claim that Rostov is a name too, but people will think you are crazy). When the father is unknown, mother's patronym is often taken, otherwise people rarely use anything other than the name of the biological father. I think first name and surname are changed more often than patronym, even after adoption.

That is interesting. Thanks.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

Kostornaya was not in their plans. And I'm honestly not sure if Samodurova was, either. Her results the season before were nothing earth-shattering.

Yes I see finishes of 12th for Samodurova and 16th for Kostornaia at 2017 Russian Junior Nationals. At this time last year I had only introduced myself to the JGP. I was not following intricacies such as how the spots were given. Can you tell me how and when they earned their spots if they were not in RusFed's plans when JGP started last season?

 

[Shayuki]

Yes I see finishes of 12th for Samodurova and 16th for Kostornaia at 2017 Russian Junior Nationals. At this time last year I had only introduced myself to the JGP. I was not following intricacies such as how the spots were given. Can you tell me how and when they earned their spots if they were not in RusFed's plans when JGP started last season?

I can't know for sure, but I assume for Samodurova:

St. Pb Cup Etap 1 on August 21-25 where she scored 199.99 points.

And for Kostornaya, this I know for certain:

Cup of Moscow, August 29-September 1 where she scored 184.05 points. Moscow locals have very harsh scoring, this is a very big score. Her PCS was 24 and 52.

 

[Elucidus]

To me, the limited backloading and lowered base values as well as heavier penalized falls should lower the general scoring, so she should place higher than #14 this season.

You forgot about +5 GOE. Even with falls and lower BV +5GOE's can affect ALL elements (not only jumps) - which in turn can result in huge bonus score. As it was proven already by first JGP event and CS -+4/+5 are not rare even for not top skaters. Imagine what kind of inflation will be with famous senior favorites? Therefore I am sure general score will be higher this season and new world records easily will surpass old ones. Considering all that we can't be sure whar SB scores list will be at the end of the season. It may be the case that 205 will be out of best 24 range.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I don't think it will increase by ten points though, because while the GOE increases, the backloading and base values have decreased, so I think it'll mostly even out

 

[Shayuki]

You forgot about +5 GOE. Even with falls and lower BV +5GOE's can affect ALL elements (not only jumps) - which in turn can result in huge bonus score.

The skaters who're able to get +4 or +5 on everything are quite rare, and those would likely score very high for the PB anyway. Do I see the second tier of skaters constantly getting +4 or +5 on everything? No, I certainly do not. Additionally, +5 GOE isn't even worth more than old +3 GOE in every case, like with 3Salchow or 3Toe. Step sequence also gets valued less with the new system, for instance.

In my opinion the skater types who'd be competing with a score like 205 aren't the ones who're getting +4 or +5 GOE on everything, that still tends to be reserved for top skaters from top feds. All of them won't even be competing this season.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

All right, so I was rewatching an old Nugumanova video and I noticed something interesting... both 3Lz-3Lo and 3F-3Lo in competition!

So here's our updated list:

3Lo-3Lo:
Evgenia Medvedeva in training
Elizaveta Nugumanova
Natalia Ogoreltseva

3F-3Lo:
Anastasia Gracheva
Viktoria Vasilieva
Alexandra Trusova
Anna Shcherbakova
Elizaveta Nugumanova

3Lz-3Lo:
Alena Kanysheva
Sofia Samodelkina
Ksenia Sinitsyna
Anastasia Gubanova
Elizaveta Nugumanova
Anna Shcherbakova
Alena Kostornaya
Alexandra Trusova
Alina Zagitova

 

[hanca]

True but I guarantee the Federation wants to keep at least one skater who is eligible and capable of scoring into the 200’s on the JGP. That’s why I said it may have a lot to do with those second place finishers and what scoring potential they possess going forward.

Winning on the JGP helps the federation and adds influence on the GP. If all three Eteri girls go...who replaces them? Will they continue to dominate?

I don’t think that the federation will be overly worried about Scherbakova, Trusova and Kostornaya moving into seniors. There will still be plenty of skaters left in juniors. Kanysheva, Vasilieva, Tarakanova, Sinitsina...plus I would be very surprised if Tutberidze isn’t growing another girl that will be newly eligible next season. I bet she has one or two somewhere hidden.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

She's growing not one, not two, but three!
Daria Usacheva, Kamila Valieva, and Maya Kromykh
Plus Kadyrova who was eligible for juniors this season

 

[Elucidus]

Nope...I think Anna will likely do another season on the JGP. At least at this point I do.

Most Russian ladies tend to do two years...Alina probably would have stayed down had it not been an Olympic season. The senior ranks are so crowded and space is optimal. Anna would benefit from winning the JWC before moving up after Sasha leaves if everything works out as expected. Or even Alena if she has a sophomore slump and Anna passes her.

Was there any case in figure skating history when some junior athlete decided not to or wasn't allowed to move up to seniors despite having high enough scores?