2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[voolfee]

There is possibility though that she will learn 3A to that time

I don't think that Sasha is able to jump 3A.

 

[moriel]

There is possibility though that she will learn 3A to that time (I've some suspicions that maybe she already learned it - but they are keeping it in secret - similar to unexpected Anna's 2 quads program, for example). It would give her serous advantage in her SP.

Anna's 2 quad was somewhat expected.
It is not news that she had a 4Lz in progress. The only unexpected thing was she doing 2 of them.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

I don't think that Sasha is able to jump 3A.

Sasha attempted one 2 years ago in competition, so i think that she had at least been training and landing a 3A back then. It’s possible she stopped attempting the 3A to go for the harder quads but she did do a 3A off ice very recently.

 

[neusw]

Not really. She still got 32 PCs, against Alina's 36.
32-33 PCs is still junior stuff on current level. Yep, she will get some boost, this is why I said 15 points difference, not 20. But no way any of the juniors will get 35+ and 75+ at rusnats.

Even with just a ~2-3 point PCS boost in SP and ~5-6 pt boost in FP, the quad jumping juniors will have a much better chance to win nationals against the seniors, assuming everyone's clean.

 

[figurefan0726]

Since 2009 there has always been a junior skater on the podium at RN (except i think 2016)

2009: Adelina Sotnikova, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
2010: Ksenia Makarova, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
2011: Adelina Sotnikova, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
2012: Adelina Sotnikova, Julia Lipnitskaya
2013: Elena Radionova
2014: Elena Radionova
2015: Evgenia Medvedeva
2016: -
2017: Alina Zagitova
2018: Alena Kostornaya

So it's almost guaranteed at least one of the Eteri trio will finish on the podium and maybe even winning nationals.

In 2016, Alina was still a junior, so yes there was a junior in 2016.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

In 2016, Alina was still a junior, so yes there was a junior in 2016.

2015-2016 had Medvedeva in first, Radionova in second, and Pogorilaya in third

 

[[email protected]]

my thoughts here...
2. The SP TES is nearly same, main difference in PCs so we don't bother with it.
.

That's only because they do not allow quads in juniors. In the Nationals she won't be limited. So that if Eteri is OK with shooting all Trusova's guns they may go with something like 4Lz, 4T-3T, 2A. Her jump TES would be 12+15+5=32 Other elements will bring 18 with the total TES of 50. In Russia she might receive 32 pcs for the total score of 82.

If Trusova wins SP she will win the whole event if clean in the free, I think.

There is nothing one can do when Tiny Boss jumps the quads.

 

[melgirl25]

Can someone please clarify? I though the Juniors, were going to be at Russian Nationals competing against Alina and Evgenia NEXT year - not the one coming up in December.

 

[Orlov]

Can someone please clarify? I though the Juniors, were going to be at Russian Nationals competing against Alina and Evgenia NEXT year - not the one coming up in December.

You can participate at Russian Nationals starting 14 years old. They just won't be able to go to Europe and the World this year.

 

[melgirl25]

Do we know which Juniors will compete?

 

[SnowWhite]

That's only because they do not allow quads in juniors. In the Nationals she won't be limited. So that if Eteri is OK with shooting all Trusova's guns they may go with something like 4Lz, 4T-3T, 2A. Her jump TES would be 12+15+5=32 Other elements will bring 18 with the total TES of 50. In Russia she might receive 32 pcs for the total score of 82.

If Trusova wins SP she will win the whole event if clean in the free, I think.

There is nothing one can do when Tiny Boss jumps the quads.

Seniors ladies also are not allowed quads in the SP. But they are allowed 3A in the SP, unlike the juniors.

Five juniors are confirmed from making the JGPF: Trusova, Kostornaia, Shcherbakova, Tarakanova, Kanysheva. More may join as the Russian Cup stages go on, but the 3A are the "dangerous" ones.

Kanysheva probably won't be allowed to compete. Last year, they didn't let Trusova or Tarakanova because they were under 14.

 

[Scott512]

So do you think that Sasha can comete for the Senior National title? Like seriously beating alina?

Yes litlle Alena competed at Russian Nationals last year at age 14 and won the bronze medal and something she should have won the gold. Sasha will be able to compete for the podium although she'll be facing even more talent than Alina faced last year at nationals. Alina is skating so well and she will probably be the favorite.

 

[melgirl25]

So the fight for second spot to go to Worlds will be between Evgenia and Elizaveta. Who else is a serious contender for the second spot? I had thought Elizabet but remembered she is from Kazakhstan :con2:

 

[colormyworld240]

So the fight for second spot to go to Worlds will be between Evgenia and Elizaveta. Who else is a serious contender for the second spot? I had thought Elizabet but remembered she is from Kazakhstan :con2:

Russian ladies have 3 spots. No one will fight for the second spot, the fight is for the third.

 

[colormyworld240]

So do you think that Sasha can comete for the Senior National title? Like seriously beating alina?

If they're both clean and Sasha does her more difficult layout, then yes she should win. But will they let her? I don't think so. They'll likely scale the GOE and PCS accordingly so Alina/Zhenya/any other lady that can contend for Worlds gold/podium will be ahead, have the national champion title, and the reputation going into the major international competitions. The federation has had a history of doing that. Of course no one has ever had the technical arsenal that Sasha has, so we may be surprised, but I don't think it'll happen if they all go clean. From the federation POV, it isn't as advantageous.

 

[Shayuki]

No way. Even when Zagitova was a junior, she placed 2nd in the senior nationals. And she wasn't nearly as good as Trusova or Shcherbakova. They wouldn't be able to have every Euro / Worlds contestant ahead of these two. And if they skate clean, I think that they will be #1 and #2 in whatever order.

 

[colormyworld240]

No way. Even when Zagitova was a junior, she placed 2nd in the senior nationals. And she wasn't nearly as good as Trusova or Shcherbakova. They wouldn't be able to have every Euro / Worlds contestant ahead of these two. And if they skate clean, I think that they will be #1 and #2 in whatever order.

Right. Alina also had the highest BV when she was second and still lost by over 12 points to Zhenya who did an extra jump which affected GOE on an entire pass. Even more, she was only 1.5 points above Maria, who made multiple errors if I recall. And same thing las year when Alena was perfect and Alina and Maria made multiple errors but still placed ahead by a large margin. Obviously Sasha and Anna will have a bigger BV advantage than those other cases, but I think they'll still put one senior first if they win, with the scoring that has been suggested by others above. At least one of the juniors will podium though, but that's a given, I just don't think they'll have the junior as champion if seniors go clean. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

 

[Shayuki]

Right. Alina also had the highest BV when she was second and still lost by over 12 points to Zhenya who did an extra jump which affected GOE on an entire pass. Even more, she was only 1.5 points above Maria, who made multiple errors if I recall. And same thing las year when Alena was perfect and Alina and Maria made multiple errors but still placed ahead by a large margin. Obviously Sasha and Anna will have a bigger BV advantage than those other cases, but I think they'll still put one senior first if they win, with the scoring that has been suggested by others above. At least one of the juniors will podium though, but that's a given, I just don't think they'll have the junior as champion if seniors go clean. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

We're talking about a Program with 3 quads though, not some minor 1-2 point differences. If Trusova for instance is clean there's no way she doesn't win.

With a clean FS she can score like 175 in Russia.

 

[madison]

Right. Alina also had the highest BV when she was second and still lost by over 12 points to Zhenya who did an extra jump which affected GOE on an entire pass. Even more, she was only 1.5 points above Maria, who made multiple errors if I recall. And same thing las year when Alena was perfect and Alina and Maria made multiple errors but still placed ahead by a large margin. Obviously Sasha and Anna will have a bigger BV advantage than those other cases, but I think they'll still put one senior first if they win, with the scoring that has been suggested by others above. At least one of the juniors will podium though, but that's a given, I just don't think they'll have the junior as champion if seniors go clean. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

I agree with that. I doubt a junior will win the Russian National Champ even if she's clean and with 3 quads

 

[neusw]

No way. Even when Zagitova was a junior, she placed 2nd in the senior nationals. And she wasn't nearly as good as Trusova or Shcherbakova. They wouldn't be able to have every Euro / Worlds contestant ahead of these two. And if they skate clean, I think that they will be #1 and #2 in whatever order.

Not to mention everyone and their babushkas know the current crop of juniors are the future of ladies figure skating. They would only be doing the smart thing by boosting them up early so they can launch onto the Senior Circuit next year at full blast. No doubt it would make a huge splash if a junior skater beat the current OGM AND 2x world champ. Whoever they send to Euros/Worlds this year has no need for a reputation boost—they already have the reputation and the content to win comfortably against this year’s senior ladies. The fed’s already focused on 2022, and everyone can see the writing on the wall.

It’s true that they have been hesitant in the past to place their top junior ahead of their top senior, but this is a completely different situation. Never have we had a junior class this strong at the beginning of a quad, when it would be of maximum benefit to promote the juniors over the senior. And never have we had a senior who is the clear No. 1 in the world, yet does not factor heavily into the fed’s plans for the next few years. It’s a unique embarrassment of riches that actually creates quite a favorable situation for the juniors.