2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[hippomoomin]

I am surprised that Karen is back on track so soon. It definitely shows she is still quite serious about her skating career.

 

[NAOTMAA]

What is the status on Karen's injury now? I thought from reading here and the various stuff Karen has said it was more serious but since she's at Tallinn Trophy I don't know what to think.

 

[chuckm]

Karen hasn't competed since the Olympics, almost 11 months ago, and that wasn't exactly a sterling effort after two lackluster GP appearances. If she didn't show up and deliver at some competition this fall, her 'body of work' going into Nationals wouldn't stand up against competitors like Bell, Tennell and Wessenberg---and there are only two spots for Worlds this year. There are only four Nationals podium spots, with at least two newcomers (Liu and Cui) who are serious contenders for those.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Karen hasn't competed since the Olympics, almost 11 months ago, and that wasn't exactly a sterling effort after two lackluster GP appearances. If she didn't show up and deliver at some competition this fall, her 'body of work' going into Nationals wouldn't stand up against competitors like Bell, Tennell and Wessenberg---and there are only two spots for Worlds this year. There are only four Nationals podium spots, with at least two newcomers (Liu and Cui) who are serious contenders for those.

Tennell has had a good season, but Bell or Wessenberg aren't going to bump a National silver medalist off the World team.

 

[NAOTMAA]

Karen was third last year. Bradie and Mirai if I recall correctly WAY ahead of everyone else (or maybe I'm just thinking final result).

I would think Karen's performances last year and her no show on the GP this year means she'll have to be great at Nationals. Does a national title, 4th at world's two years ago and possible potential still hold enough weight to counter what's happening now?

 

[MarinHondas]

Tennell has had a good season, but Bell or Wessenberg aren't going to bump a National silver medalist off the World team.

I would argue Bell had almost as good a season as Tennell thus far. She had a tougher second GP but was scored very similarly. Her score at NHK would have put her on the podium at IDF. The only thing Bradie has over Mariah is her ACI gold.

 

[oatmella]

Karen was third last year. Bradie and Mirai if I recall correctly WAY ahead of everyone else (or maybe I'm just thinking final result).

I would think Karen's performances last year and her no show on the GP this year means she'll have to be great at Nationals. Does a national title, 4th at world's two years ago and possible potential still hold enough weight to counter what's happening now?

I don’t think so. At least as a Nathan fan, 2016-17 season seems like quite a long time ago.

Bradie and Mariah both did well at at their last GPs. Alysa has the potential and 3As. If Mariah skates well, I can’t see Karen making the worlds team.

 

[Noxchild]

Realistically we probably can't expect a series of knockout flawless performances, especially since it's been so darn long since Karen last competed, but I will be sad if we don't see her in any "big" international comps this season... even 4CC would be great! Good luck to her at Tallinn and Nationals :luv17:

 

[frida80]

I think the 4CC spot is the most important. It’s based in the US and offers a ton of WR points as well as an opportunity to get a new SB. For someone like Karen who needs to make up a lot of points ans needs a good SB to get two spots next year, this is critical.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I would argue Bell had almost as good a season as Tennell thus far. She had a tougher second GP but was scored very similarly. Her score at NHK would have put her on the podium at IDF. The only thing Bradie has over Mariah is her ACI gold.

Bradie has a GP medal, highest SP, LP, and total scores this season. Mariah has had the second best GP season, but you aren't going to make a world team finishing 3rd or lower at Nationals on the strength of your GP record when you didn't medal.

 

[figurefan0726]

I personally prefer Mariah Bell’s programs than Bradie’s this year. I’m excited to see what Karen has this week at Tallinn.

 

[bennorii]

I think the 4CC spot is the most important. It’s based in the US and offers a ton of WR points as well as an opportunity to get a new SB. For someone like Karen who needs to make up a lot of points ans needs a good SB to get two spots next year, this is critical.

I actually think Karen won't fall out of the top 24 in WS because she's actually pretty high up, but a 4CC assignment would definitely help her.

 

[SnowWhite]

I actually think Karen won't fall out of the top 24 in WS because she's actually pretty high up, but a 4CC assignment would definitely help her.

If she were to not get any points this season, then by my calculations Karen would fall out of top 24 SB actually. But she should get some points at Tallinn. But 4CC would be really helpful for her.

 

[Metis]

I’ll be curious to see how Karen does. The new UR rules are unlikely to help her, but she’s one of the few women who could conceivably net +4-5 GOE on some of her jumps, assuming they aren’t UR.

 

[chuckm]

Not feeling optimistic about the US ladies chances at Tallinn Trophy, after looking at the tech and judging panels.

Ref: Serova-BLR
TC: Kulik-EST
TS: Baranova-FIN, but Russian-born and moved to Finland later
ATS: Brovenko-LAT

Judges: SUI CZE SVK RUS TPE DEN KAZ

You can expect URs and edge calls for sure.

 

[andromache]

Karen is going to have a harder time than ever with the new UR rules.

I'm interested to see how Ting has progressed and if she has increased her stamina/consistency in the LP since her last outing.

 

[chuckm]

Karen was third last year. Bradie and Mirai if I recall correctly WAY ahead of everyone else (or maybe I'm just thinking final result).

I would think Karen's performances last year and her no show on the GP this year means she'll have to be great at Nationals. Does a national title, 4th at world's two years ago and possible potential still hold enough weight to counter what's happening now?

No--the National title and Worlds result are too far back and would not be included in her 'body of work'. Her 3rd place at Nationals 2018 carries some weight, but then her Olympic performance was below par, she skipped Worlds and hasn't competed until now. If she doesn't finish at least in the top 5 at Tallinn Trophy, I'd think USFS would be skeptical of her ability to perform well at the World level. Karen obviously has an injury and there is no sense in sending an injured skater to a major competition.

 

[Metis]

Karen is going to have a harder time than ever with the new UR rules.

I'm interested to see how Ting has progressed and if she has increased her stamina/consistency in the LP since her last outing.

Yeah, I’m not expecting a miracle from Karen given that she’s been injured, but hopefully there’ll be some progress in terms of her jump technique.

Ting Cui’s name is literally a mashup of the names of two friends of mine so I can’t help but root for her (and cringe at how announcers pronounce her family name).

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Karen is going to have a harder time than ever with the new UR rules.

It's going to be a big problem. Her otherwise terrific jumps are going to score low because she usually lands right at 1/4 short, which you could get away with sometimes before but not anymore. It was very apparent when you saw how Bradie's jumps were judged last weekend.

 

[Moxiejan]

I would argue Bell had almost as good a season as Tennell thus far. She had a tougher second GP but was scored very similarly. Her score at NHK would have put her on the podium at IDF. The only thing Bradie has over Mariah is her ACI gold.

True for the fall season, but the “body of work” computations would give Bradie a big edge due to results at 2018 Nationals.