2018-2019 GP Assignments

[Colonel Green]

Building on my earlier comment about what it typically takes to qualify, I compiled the states for the last three seasons:

Ladies
2017-2018
1. Medvedeva - 1st Russia, 1st Japan
2. Zagitova - 1st China, 1st France
3. Osmond - 1st Canada, 3rd France
4. Kostner - 2nd Russia, 2nd Japan
5. Sotskova - 2nd Canada, 2nd France
6. Higuchi - 2nd China, 3rd Russia

2016-2017
1. Medvedeva - 1st Canada, 1st France
2. Pogorilaya - 1st Russia, 1st Japan
3. Radionova - 1st China, 2nd Russia
4. Osmond - 2nd Canada, 2nd China
5. Sotskova - 2nd France, 3rd Japan
6. Miyahara - 2nd Japan, 3rd Canada

2015-2016
1. Gold - 1st France, 2nd USA
2. Medvedeva - 1st USA, 2nd Russia
3. Miyahara - 1st Japan, 3rd USA
4. Asada - 1st China, 3rd Japan
5. Radionova - 1st Russia, 3rd China
6. Wagner - 1st Canada, 4th Japan

In a weird trend, the last two years the winner of Skate America has tanked another event and missed the cut for the final (though in Satoko's case this year, she got to go anyway after Evgenia withdrew; Ashley Wagner wasn't so lucky the year before). Like I commented earlier, 2015-2016 is a neat and tidy split of the gold medals among the six. The next two years, though, are likely a better model for what to expect next year, with two Russian women each claiming two of the gold medals. If you can get one of the remaining two gold medals in such a scenario, you're probably set as long as you don't go lower than fourth place in your other event (Miyahara was 5th in Japan, Wagner was 6th in China).

Men
2017-2018
1. Chen - 1st Russia, 1st USA
2. Uno - 1st Canada, 2nd France
3. Kolyada - 1st China, 3rd Russia
4. Voronov - 1st Japan, 2nd USA
5. Rippon - 2nd Japan, 2nd USA
6. Jin - 2nd China, 4th USA

2016-2017
1. Fernandez - 1st Russia, 1st France
2. Chan - 1st Canada, 1st China
3. Hanyu - 1st Japan, 2nd Canada
4. Uno - 1st USA, 2nd Russia
5. Chen - 2nd Japan, 4th France
6. Rippon - 3rd USA, 3rd France

2015-2016
1. Fernandez - 1st China, 1st Russia
2. Hanyu - 1st Japan, 2nd Canada
3. Uno - 1st France, 2nd USA
4. Jin - 2nd China, 2nd Japan
5. Chan - 1st Canada, 5th France
6. Murakami - 3rd Canada, 3rd France

Boy, Hanyu has not had great luck at Skate Canada. Well, Chan's gone now (indeed, Hanyu would have beaten him had he been able to go last year, I'm sure), so the path is open now. The men's results seem to be a bit more chaotic. At a couple of times you see people getting in with a silver medal and a fourth-place finish.

Pairs
2017-2018
1. Sui/Han - 1st China, 1st Japan
2. Tarasova/Morozov - 1st Russia, 1st France
3. Savchenko/Massot - 1st USA, 2nd Canada
4. Duhamel/Radford - 1st Canada, 3rd USA
5. Stolbova/Klimov - 2nd Russia, 2nd Japan
6. Xiaoyu/Hao - 2nd China, 2nd USA

2016-2017
1. Duhamel/Radford - 1st Canada, 1st Japan
2. Savchenko/Massot - 1st Russia, 1st France
3. Xiaoyu/Hao - 1st China, 2nd Canada
4. Cheng/Yang - 2nd China, 2nd Japan
5. Tarasova/Morozov - 2nd France, 3rd USA
6. Seguin/Bilodeau - 1st USA, 5th Russia

2015-2016
1. Duhamel/Radford - 1st Canada, 1st Japan
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov - 1st China, 2nd Russia
3. Sui/Han - 1st USA, 2nd China
4. Stolbova/Klimov - 1st Russia, 4th USA
5. Knierim/Knierim - 2nd USA, 3rd Japan
6. Xiaoyu/Yang - 2nd Japan, 2rd China

Ice Dance
2017-2018
1. Papadakis/Cizeron - 1st China, 1st France
2. Virtue/Moir - 1st Canada, 1st Japan
3. Shib Sibs - 1st Russia, 1st USA
4. Chock/Bates - 2nd China, 2nd France
5. Hubbell/Donohue - 2nd Japan, 3rd Canada
6. Cappellini/Lanotte - 2nd USA, 3rd Japan

2016-2017
1. Virtue/Moir - 1st Canada, 1st Japan
2. Shib Sibs - 1st USA, 1st China
3. Papadakis/Cizeron - 1st France, 2nd Japan
4. Bobrova/Soloviev - 1st Russia, 3rd USA
5. Chock/Bates - 2nd Canada, 2nd Russia
6. Hubbell/Donohue - 2nd France, 2nd USA

2015-2016
1. Weaver/Poje - 1st Canada, 1st Russia
2. Chock/Bates - 1st USA, 2nd China
3. Cappellini/Lanotte - 1st China, 2nd Russia
4. Shib Sibs - 1st Japan, 2nd Canada
5. Hubbell/Donohue - 1st France, 3rd Japan
6. Bobrova/Soloviev - 2nd Japan, 3rd Canada

Last year had three teams claiming two gold medals apiece, the highest concentration in any category in that period.

 

[Ice Dance]

Boy, Hanyu has not had great luck at Skate Canada. Well, Chan's gone now (indeed, Hanyu would have beaten him had he been able to go last year, I'm sure), so the path is open now.

I believe Hanyu has never won his first GP of the season, no matter where the event is held. Think it has more to do with Hanyu than with whoever is in the field.

Last year had three teams claiming two gold medals apiece, the highest concentration in any category in that period.

Last year was the first time in a quadrennium that the GP dance fields were evenly split among the top contenders. In 2016-17, V&M and B&S weren't seeded. In 2015-16, B&S weren't seeded and P&C pulled out due to injury. In 2014-15, Cappellini & Lanotte pulled out of the GP before their second event. Illness, injuries, comebacks, and drug-related bans--they all wreak havoc on GP fields.

 

[randomfan]

This is a question I’ve had for a long time. When the top 24 in the season’s best and world standings are reviewed, do they count the top 24 after taking out the skaters who are guaranteed either two spots or no spots? Or do they just include those skaters when going through the top 24?

Let’s take Zagitova, Trusova, and Kostner for example. Zagitova is guaranteed two spots because of her placement at Worlds, Trusova is too young for seniors, and Kostner may retire (if not then she’d have the same case as Zagitova). So are these three taken out of the list? If they are, then that would allow skaters from #25 onward to be included in the top 24.

 

[Ice Dance]

This is a question I’ve had for a long time. When the top 24 in the season’s best and world standings are reviewed, do they count the top 24 after taking out the skaters who are guaranteed either two spots or no spots? Or do they just include those skaters when going through the top 24?

Only skaters in the top 24 are guaranteed a spot via the SB or WS lists. No spots to the athlete in 25th, no matter how many athletes above them are retired, injured, or already counted as having 2 spots. However, since the replacement list is generated by the next top ten scores on the Season's Best list, athletes close to the top 24 on the SB list have a very good chance of receiving an invitation.

 

[asp11]

Only skaters in the top 24 are guaranteed a spot via the SB or WS lists. No spots to the athlete in 25th, no matter how many athletes above them are retired, injured, or already counted as having 2 spots. However, since the replacement list is generated by the next top ten scores on the Season's Best list, athletes close to the top 24 on the SB list have a very good chance of receiving an invitation.

By "receiving an invitation", do you mean getting a second assignment? I'm under the impression that it's common for skaters in the top 24 on either list to get a second assignment, though this doesn't always happen. Am I correct?

 

[Ice Dance]

By "receiving an invitation", do you mean getting a second assignment? I'm under the impression that it's common for skaters in the top 24 on either list to get a second assignment, though this doesn't always happen. Am I correct?

I mean getting a first assignment and/or a second one. (All athletes on the GP are invited by the host of that specific GP event). It's very common for athletes at the top of the Season's Best list to receive two invitations. In singles, where there are more GP spots available, this may well mean two spots for every athlete in the top twenty-four. In dance and pairs, which have smaller GP fields, it rarely means two invitations for all twenty-four. There are only 48 spots available in pairs, and some of those will go to lower-ranked athletes for host spots. Last year, I estimated about the top 19 teams on the SB list would get two in dance. (During a post Olympic season, the odds are much better because teams will retire, leaving room for more invitations).

Host invitations often make winning two spots look easier than it is. Wang & Liu, for example, have had two spots on the GP for several years, but only because they are from a host country. Lauriault & Le Gac had two non-host invites last season, but it's highly likely that was because another country wanted an invite for one of their own athletes from Internationaux de France. Meanwhile teams without host-country support, like Nazarova & Nikitin of Ukraine and Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson while competing for Denmark, have a much harder time winning two spots.

And competing for a country that is very deep in a specific discipline can also backfire. McNamara & Carpenter, for example, were top 24 on both lists last season and very high on the replacement list; but only so many athletes from the same country tend to get an invitation. If you are an athlete from the U.S., Russia, or Japan on the replacement list, you really need to be the top athlete from that country on the list to have a good shot at an invite. There is absolutely no benefit in being #3 on the replacement list if you are also the third U.S. or Russian athlete on the list. Plus, often host countries like to invite athletes who may lose to their own host athletes. They prefer to select athletes from the bottom of the replacement list in the hope that their own athletes won't finish last. This is why earning guaranteed spots is important. Without one, high-level athletes often get passed over even when last-minute openings become available. It's good to be at the very top of the list also. Japan tends to invite athletes from the top of the list. And other countries tend to do so at times, depending on the discipline and how deep their own athletes are in that discipline. But no guarantee is no guarantee.

 

[asp11]

I mean getting a first assignment and/or a second one. (All athletes on the GP are invited by the host of that specific GP event). It's very common for athletes at the top of the Season's Best list to receive two invitations. In singles, where there are more GP spots available, this may well mean two spots for every athlete in the top twenty-four. In dance and pairs, which have smaller GP fields, it rarely means two invitations for all twenty-four. There are only 48 spots available in pairs, and some of those will go to lower-ranked athletes for host spots. Last year, I estimated about the top 19 teams on the SB list would get two in dance. (During a post Olympic season, the odds are much better because teams will retire, leaving room for more invitations).

Host invitations often make winning two spots look easier than it is. Wang & Liu, for example, have had two spots on the GP for several years, but only because they are from a host country. Lauriault & Le Gac had two non-host invites last season, but it's highly likely that was because another country wanted an invite for one of their own athletes from Internationaux de France. Meanwhile teams without host-country support, like Nazarova & Nikitin of Ukraine and Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson while competing for Denmark, have a much harder time winning two spots.

And competing for a country that is very deep in a specific discipline can also backfire. McNamara & Carpenter, for example, were top 24 on both lists last season and very high on the replacement list; but only so many athletes from the same country tend to get an invitation. If you are an athlete from the U.S., Russia, or Japan on the replacement list, you really need to be the top athlete from that country on the list to have a good shot at an invite. There is absolutely no benefit in being #3 on the replacement list if you are also the third U.S. or Russian athlete on the list. Plus, often host countries like to invite athletes who may lose to their own host athletes. They prefer to select athletes from the bottom of the replacement list in the hope that their own athletes won't finish last. This is why earning guaranteed spots is important. Without one, high-level athletes often get passed over even when last-minute openings become available. It's good to be at the very top of the list also. Japan tends to invite athletes from the top of the list. And other countries tend to do so at times, depending on the discipline and how deep their own athletes are in that discipline. But no guarantee is no guarantee.

Thanks for the excellent explanation! ETA: By replacement list, are you referring to the top 75 athletes? I'm new to the selection process. Thanks!

 

[SnowWhite]

Thanks for the excellent explanation! ETA: By replacement list, are you referring to the top 75 athletes? I'm new to the selection process. Thanks!

I think the rule is that the top ten skaters/teams without two or any assignments make up the replacement list and feds can choose any of them. And I believe winning an early CS event can get you added to the list. But sometimes it's not clear who's actually on the list because of injuries, juniors, etc, and it changes as people get assignments. Also sometimes it seems like the list must be flexible, given who gets replacement spots.

 

[asp11]

I think the rule is that the top ten skaters/teams without two or any assignments make up the replacement list and feds can choose any of them. And I believe winning an early CS event can get you added to the list. But sometimes it's not clear who's actually on the list because of injuries, juniors, etc, and it changes as people get assignments. Also sometimes it seems like the list must be flexible, given who gets replacement spots.

Thanks for your help!

 

[Skatefan15]

Is it impossible for Yuzuru to be at Skate America?

 

[Colonel Green]

Is it impossible for Yuzuru to be at Skate America?

It's technically possible, but the US wouldn't have any reason to invite him and potentially undermine their own stars. And it'd be unnecessary extra work for him to ask for an extra face-off with Nathan, anyway.

 

[Skatefan15]

It's technically possible, but the US wouldn't have any reason to invite him and potentially undermine their own stars. And it'd be unnecessary extra work for him to ask for an extra face-off with Nathan, anyway.

I wish the US would invite skaters to challenge theirs though. There never is a World Champion that goes there (lol that will obviously change this year though because of Nathan) but it's always the bronze medalists that go. Do you know if the USFSA chooses who goes or do the skaters?

 

[el henry]

I wish the US would invite skaters to challenge theirs though. There never is a World Champion that goes there (lol that will obviously change this year though because of Nathan) but it's always the bronze medalists that go. Do you know if the USFSA chooses who goes or do the skaters?

Skate America obviously wants American skaters there, but other than that, I don't understand the question. Was Boyang not considered sufficient "challenge" for Nathan when he was assigned to SA last year? He was injured, but Skate America could not have foreseen that.....

 

[Colonel Green]

I wish the US would invite skaters to challenge theirs though. There never is a World Champion that goes there (lol that will obviously change this year though because of Nathan) but it's always the bronze medalists that go. Do you know if the USFSA chooses who goes or do the skaters?

The USFSA chooses, albeit with the gentleman's agreement amongst the parties that the incumbent world champion's choices are honoured. So in theory, Hanyu could have requested an invite to Skate America for 2017, and they'd presumably have agreed.

 

[Skatefan15]

Skate America obviously wants American skaters there, but other than that, I don't understand the question. Was Boyang not considered sufficient "challenge" for Nathan when he was assigned to SA last year? He was injured, but Skate America could not have foreseen that.....

I think Boyang was a sufficient challenge, Boyang would have done a lot better if he wasn't injured. I'm just saying I wish that World Champs were sent to SA more often.

 

[el henry]

I think Boyang was a sufficient challenge, Boyang would have done a lot better if he wasn't injured. I'm just saying I wish that World Champs were sent to SA more often.

Ah yes, I see. Well, Yuzu and Javi always selected Skate Canada in the past as their "second" GP, for obvious reasons. And now SA will be getting the World champ The ID champs would not be coming to SA due to the Shibs' high placements, as they have consistently been in the top 3. That needs to be taken up with the Russian fed in the case of the ladies' champ. Pairs, who knows?

After all, we only have four champs, and six GPs in which to distribute them

 

[chuckm]

Is it impossible for Yuzuru to be at Skate America?

Yuzuru doesn't do well in his first GP and USFS knows that, so it wouldn't be impossible.

 

[Ice Dance]

Actually, Skate America had two World Champions this season and has had World Champions a number of times over the past 4 years. You just have to have a crystal ball & predict the World Champion for that season, instead of the one prior.

Tuktamysheva went to SA in 2014-15.
Medvedeva went to SA in 2015-16.
Savchenko & Massot went to SA in 2017-18.
Nathan went to SA in 2017-18.

(Sui & Han were invited in the 2016-17 season as well, but I think we all knew they weren't going to be able to attend).

 

[4everchan]

Skate America obviously wants American skaters there, but other than that, I don't understand the question. Was Boyang not considered sufficient "challenge" for Nathan when he was assigned to SA last year? He was injured, but Skate America could not have foreseen that.....

boyang was the third seed... so technically the least able to challenge American skaters from the top 3 skaters

 

[el henry]

boyang was the third seed... so technically the least able to challenge American skaters from the top 3 skaters

Hehehehe
Except that based on that year’s rankings, all the American male skaters were ranked *lower* than third, so technically they were out to challenge him....

Round and round we go