2018-2019 GP Assignments

[NanaPat]

It's too bad these events are so close together, otherwise it'd be easy for Kaetlyn to go to both.

Katelyn is a skater who develops her programs over the season, not one who comes out with a finished product at the first competition she enters. For that reason, I wouldn't like to see her do the first two GP competitions of the season back-to-back.

 

[AshWagsFan]

Wait, what? Is not Eric Bombard or Trophée de France? And why do they continue changing the name?

Lol I think it’s now called Internationaux de Francè

 

[bewitched]

I live in Europe and would like to attend at least one competition next season and I guess my best shot would be IdF, since I would need a visa for Russia (Rostelecom Cup) and Minsk, Belarus (Europeans).

I read many comments in GS about IdF and other French competitions and laughed A LOT, the best moment was the pigeon flying around during the free skate of Alena Leonova Oh well, but like I said, Grenoble is very likely my only chance to see some of my favourite skaters.

So, do you think Alina, Kaetlyn would skate again in France next season? I saw that you have some theories about Yuzuru, hopefully he participates there!

 

[aless]

I live in Europe and would like to attend at least one competition next season and I guess my best shot would be IdF, since I would need a visa for Russia (Rostelecom Cup) and Minsk, Belarus (Europeans).

I read many comments in GS about IdF and other French competitions and laughed A LOT, the best moment was the pigeon flying around during the free skate of Alena Leonova [emoji23] Oh well, but like I said, Grenoble is very likely my only chance to see some of my favourite skaters.

So, do you think Alina, Kaetlyn would skate again in France next season? I saw that you have some theories about Yuzuru, hopefully he participates there!

I'm in the same boat, the next season is really not the best for us EU-Europeans, huh? I already can't wait for the final announcments, even though they're a while away so I can make my final decision

 

[bewitched]

I'm in the same boat, the next season is really not the best for us EU-Europeans, huh? I already can't wait for the final announcments, even though they're a while away so I can make my final decision

Exactly! It would be perfect if there was a big competition in Germany or Switzerland but no, everything important takes place in Japan or North America I was lucky to be in Milan for the Worlds, really, for the next 2 seasons only the Europeans 2020 in Graz, Austria are a good possibility for fans in Central Europe.

If France really keep organizing their events so poorly, give these events to Germany, please

 

[SnowWhite]

I live in Europe and would like to attend at least one competition next season and I guess my best shot would be IdF, since I would need a visa for Russia (Rostelecom Cup) and Minsk, Belarus (Europeans).

I read many comments in GS about IdF and other French competitions and laughed A LOT, the best moment was the pigeon flying around during the free skate of Alena Leonova Oh well, but like I said, Grenoble is very likely my only chance to see some of my favourite skaters.

So, do you think Alina, Kaetlyn would skate again in France next season? I saw that you have some theories about Yuzuru, hopefully he participates there!

I think there's a good chance Kaetlyn is at IdF. I'm not sure about Alina. But for Kaetlyn, she'll do Skate Canada for sure. Skate America and Cup of China would mean back to back comps for her, so those two are unlikely, and she can't really do NHK because the other two medalists at Worlds are both Japanese and one of them will be there. So that leaves CoR or IdF for her second event. France seems more likely. For Alina, I guess it depends whether they have her or Evegnia at CoR, since they probably won't want her doing back to back events.

 

[Ziotic]

I agree that Kaetlyn will almost certainly be at IdF, based on what SnowWhite mentions above. With that in mind, I think its very likely that we will see Alina at IdF as well, assuming they don't want both Med and Zag at CoR.

I think Med is still favoured in Russia and will therefore be at CoR, Alina won't be at SC(they just won't invite her to compete against Kaetlyn) or SA (same seed as Bradie).

That would leave IdF, CoC, and NHK for Alina.

Again I think NHK would also prefer Med to Zag, thus leaving her with IdF and CoC. They both don't really have strong contenders for ladies so having the reigning Oly champ would help their audience draws.

Edit, I just realized that NHK and CoR are back to back, so I think Med will be at one and Alina the other.

 

[Colonel Green]

Again I think NHK would also prefer Med to Zag, thus leaving her with IdF and CoC.

Medvedeva didn’t go to Worlds, so isn’t she depending on being invited? It seems unlikely that the Japanese wouldn’t prefer to boost the prospects of their own skaters.

 

[Ziotic]

Medvedeva didn’t go to Worlds, so isn’t she depending on being invited? It seems unlikely that the Japanese wouldn’t prefer to boost the prospects of their own skaters.

While true, Japan is usually one of the Feds that enjoys actually inviting good skaters. Since each event will almost certainly have 3 Russians participating I think they would prefer to have Med since she's so popular their and basically guaranteed two spots.

That being said, I could be wrong and we could end up seeing Med/Zag go up against each other early in the GP, but I think Russia will look to "make deals" with other Feds to avoid it from happening.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Yuzu I think, coz he is the Olympic Champion and He's not compete at Japan since NHK 2016.
Seniority also coming to play, I remember in the 2013/2014 season Yuzu didn't get NHK eventho he was the National Champion and placed better at both Worlds and 4CC than Daisuke Takahashi,

All of that, and then factor in that NHK will want their TV ratings and all, and nobody sells like Yuzu. I'd be very surprised if he wasn't invited to NHK.
Not sure if they'd invite Shoma additionally, I'd think given GPF spots they'd like to avoid it - but it's relatively difficult not to have them meet on the GP at all anyway. Nathan is also pretty popular in Japan and the reigning WC, wouldn't be too surprised if he was in NHK in the end either.

As for the top 3 ladies, Kaet will very likely have SC + IdF, then my guess is Satoko with SA + NHK and Waka with CoC + CoR, like... All of them had last season xD

 

[skatenewbie]

All of that, and then factor in that NHK will want their TV ratings and all, and nobody sells like Yuzu. I'd be very surprised if he wasn't invited to NHK.
Not sure if they'd invite Shoma additionally, I'd think given GPF spots they'd like to avoid it - but it's relatively difficult not to have them meet on the GP at all anyway. Nathan is also pretty popular in Japan and the reigning WC, wouldn't be too surprised if he was in NHK in the end either.

As for the top 3 ladies, Kaet will very likely have SC + IdF, then my guess is Satoko with SA + NHK and Waka with CoC + CoR, like... All of them had last season xD

idk if Wakaba will choose CoC and CoR again though, Satoko will get what's left from Kaetlyn and Waka, well she can have NHK if Japan take her, but i can see Waka choosing SA too, many skaters want to go to all GP and trying to win them all, i think only Mao? in ladies that won all 6 GP. idk about men though, even medalling in 6 GP is not easy

 

[Li'Kitsu]

idk if Wakaba will choose CoC and CoR again though, Satoko will get what's left from Kaetlyn and Waka, well she can have NHK if Japan take her, but i can see Waka choosing SA too, many skaters want to go to all GP and trying to win them all, i think only Mao? in ladies that won all 6 GP. idk about men though, even medalling in 6 GP is not easy

Waka won't have that much to choose anymore I think. Kaet decides first and if she takes SC + IdF that leaves SA and CoC-NHK-CoR, and the last three are all back to back. NHK won't be Waka's or Satokos choice, but JSF/NHKs, and they don't have to go by podium order. And if they want to avoid back to back events, the non-NHK girl will automatically have CoC + CoR.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Has a host pick ever won their host-GP?
I know Adelina medaled at 2015 Rostelecom but didn't win

Also, I'm very nervous for Dasha. I want her to make the GPF...

 

[SnowWhite]

Has a host pick ever won their host-GP?
I know Adelina medaled at 2015 Rostelecom but didn't win

Also, I'm very nervous for Dasha. I want her to make the GPF...

Do you mean a host pick who wasn't already guaranteed a spot? Kaetlyn Osmond won Skate Canada in 2012 in her senior debut. She was only 10th at JW the year before, so I would guess that was a host pick.

 

[skater7866]

Also had a go at the Men’s, but much more difficult. There’s so many retirements – I counted at least 15 in the Top 60 Seasons Best. However with the same assumptions, guaranteed spots, educated guess at host picks, and invites in Seasons Best order I got the following (summarised by country).

Russia (16 Spots) – Kolyada, Aliev, Samarin, Voronov, Erokhov (World junior champ) 2, Savosin, Dmitriev, Lazukin, Petrov, Ignatov 1, Host Pick 1

USA (11 spots) – Chen, Zhou, Brown 2, Krasnozhon, Johnson, Pulkinen, Dolensky 1, Host Pick 1

Japan (10 Spots) – Hanyu, Uno, Tomono, Tanaka 2, Sumoto 1, Host Pick 1

Canada (7 Spots) – Messing 2, Nguyen, Nadeau, Phan 1, Host Picks 2 (only 1 skater with 2 guaranteed assignments)

France (5 spots) – Ponsart, Aymoz 2 (1 Host Pick each), Besseghier 1 (Host Pick)

China 2 spots – Jin 2, Host Picks?

Latvia 2 spots –Vasiljevs 2

Sweden 2 spots – Majorov 2

Czech Republic 2 spots – Brezina 2

Germany 2 spots – Fentz 2

Belgium 2 spots – Hendrickx 2

Israel 2 spots – Samohin 2

Georgia 2 spots – Kvitelashvili 2

Italy 2 spots – Rizzo 2

Korea 2 spots – Cha, Lee 1

Australia 1 – Kerry 1

Malaysia 1 – Yee 1

Ukraine 1 – Paniot 1

Assumed retirements – Chan, Fernandez, Yan, Bychenko, Ge, Aaron, Rippon, Reynolds, Balde, Miner, Ten, Hochstein, Mura, Righini, Liebers, Liam Firus. Best wait till the actual announcement!

Edited to reflect below - is Tim Dolensky another potential retiree?

According to this interview that ISU did at Worlds in Milan, Majorov (SWE) might retire, but still isn't sure :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GOPcua8DJ0&t=1s

 

[Colonel Green]

That being said, I could be wrong and we could end up seeing Med/Zag go up against each other early in the GP, but I think Russia will look to "make deals" with other Feds to avoid it from happening.

It would depend on what they have to offer, I suppose. China wouldn't be giving up much of anything to extend an invite, for instance, but I'm pretty sure what they'd want in exchange would be a CoR invite for the similarly-unseeded Sui/Han, which would be kind of screwing over Tarasova/Morozov.

 

[randomfan]

Speaking of China, now that Zijun Li is gone cry, who will take the third spot for CoC? Ziquan Zhao and Xiangning Li will be taking the first two spots for sure.

 

[Ziotic]

It would depend on what they have to offer, I suppose. China wouldn't be giving up much of anything to extend an invite, for instance, but I'm pretty sure what they'd want in exchange would be a CoR invite for the similarly-unseeded Sui/Han, which would be kind of screwing over Tarasova/Morozov.

I think S/H as well as T/M will have relatively easy assignments this year. If S/M retire SA, SC, and NHK will all be relative cake walks for them so I doubt S/H will have a hard time getting an invite to a friendlier event.

They may however need someone to invite Li as she isn’t garaunteed a spot.

 

[pearly]

Does anyone know who the top 10 ladies will be after the list is updated?

 

[Colonel Green]

We've talked a bit about placement for the top three ladies, and also the Russian issue re: the unseeded Medvedeva. The latter also interacts with the politics of the second bracket, the fourth through sixth seeds.

There's some uncertainty here since Kostner is the fourth seed, but she may or may not be retiring. If she retires, then Alina is fourth seed, Bradie the fifth, and Gabby the sixth. Bradie would pre-emptively get Skate America, and Gabby Skate Canada (if there's any good news for her out of how Worlds went, it's that she and Kaetlyn aren't in the same seed bracket anymore and so can both do Skate Canada).

Alina then gets to pick first, and here's where Russia's decisions regarding how to handle her and Evgenia will really come into play. If they're absolutely set on Evgenia and Alina doing different events, then at first glance Alina should pick something other than CoR, because that means Russia can give Evgenia an invite there and only has to arrange an invitation for her to one other event. But on closer inspection that's also kind of unforgiving, schedule-wise:

Oct 19 - Oct 21, 2018 Skate America
Oct 26 - Oct 28, 2018 Skate Canada
Nov 02 - Nov 04, 2018 Cup of China
Nov 09 - Nov 11, 2018 NHK
Nov 16 - Nov 18, 2018 Rostelecom Cup
Nov 23 - Nov 25, 2018 Internationaux de France

Assuming they want to give Alina and Evgenia both some breathing space, then the most logical pairings are CoC+CoR and NHK+France. Getting Evgenia and invitation to France should be easy enough, but it will depend on whether (as we discussed above) the Japanese are good sports and give her an NHK invite.

Different calculations if Kostner stays, as she'd get first pick (other than Bradie reserving Skate America, and Alina having the option of reserving CoR).