2019-20 Canadian Figure Skating

[Koatterce]

Yes, she has been named to the 4CC team, as Madeline doesn't have the qualifying scores (looks like they may give Madeline the Jr Worlds if she can ger her qualifying scores at Bavarian Open).

The World team hasn't been named yet. If Emily gets her qualify scores, then one spot should rightfully be hers, but if she doesn't get it, then Alicia would, in my opinion, be next in line for the spot.

Madeline already has the TES minimums for JW. I'd guess that the main thing that's holding her back from that JW spot is whether Emily gets her senior minimums or not

 

[Colonel Green]

My bad! they got those scores at CHALLENGE: GPF-medal level scores.

Of course, those scores were not quite at the same level as Gilles/Poirier who got Papadakis/Cizeron World Champion-eclipsing scores. In fact G/P's score of 225+ leads the current European Champion.....

Are you now pretending not to know how domestic scoring works?

 

[chuckm]

That is not domestic scoring as I know it. We don't go to such extremes in the US.

Nathan Chen is a 2-time World Champion and was scored 114 in his SP (he got 110 at GPF). In Canada, I'd bet his SP would get at least 120 if not 125.

 

[siberia82]

Gilles & Poirier
More Confident in Their Abilities Interview: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r2q7y
Their post-RD interview was not included on TSN.ca.
Post-FD Interview: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r1k4q
Who Is the Smartest Person Fluff: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r14to
Who Has the Best Fashion Sense Fluff: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r1jut

Lajoie & Lagha
Feel They Are Ready for the Competition Interview: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r2qhp
Their post-FD interview was not included on TSN.ca.
Q&A Fluff: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r2qmm
World Championships in Montreal Fluff: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r2qw2

Soucisse & Firus
What Caused Them to Change Their Mindset Interview: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r2r6f
Q&A Fluff: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r2rf0
World Championships in Montreal Fluff: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7r2qw2

Sales & Wamsteeker
Eager to Show Everyone What They Are Capable of Interview: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7qw5il
Q&A Fluff: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7qw5r6



Ice Dance Partners Quiz Fluff: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7qwq0z (This is slightly different from the 2019 SCI version because it includes Soucisse & Firus, but the other three teams appear less often to make room for a fourth.)

 

[Colonel Green]

That is not domestic scoring as I know it. We don't go to such extremes in the US.

Nathan Chen is a 2-time World Champion and was scored 114 in his SP (he got 110 at GPF). In Canada, I'd bet his SP would get at least 120 if not 125.

The actual history of US nationals scoring would suggest otherwise. With Nathan, his international scores are already extremely high to begin with, and more to the point men’s is very different from dance in that regard.

Since it’s Natalie & Bruce’s scores that you’re so bothered by, for example their best international RD score is 63.25; at Challenge they got 69.79, so an increase of 6.54 points. Avonley & Vadym’s best international RD score is 69.20; at US junior nationals they scored 74.49, an increase of 5.29 points. So...Natalie & Bruce gained a whopping 1.25 relative points. Yeah, that’s such a big difference.

The only country where judging and technical calling at national events remotely resembles international judging is Japan.

 

[Scout]

Madeline already has the TES minimums for JW. I'd guess that the main thing that's holding her back from that JW spot is whether Emily gets her senior minimums or not

Oops! Totally missed that. Thanks for the catch!

 

[chuckm]

N/K got that 69.2 in September. This is January---one would expect some improvement over that time, especially from a team who won 2 gold JGP medals and a JGPF medal.

But after being given a score greater than N/K's best score, D/W scored only 59.10 at YOG and lost a medal to a US team with less than 6 months together.

BTW N/K's 5.29 points added to 69.2 represents an 8% improvement over 4 months; D/W's 6.54 added to 63.25 is a 10% improvement over a 2 month period. And YOG shows they really didn't improve by 10% after all.

 

[Colonel Green]

And YOG shows they really didn't improve by 10% after all.

You're aware that teams' performance trajectories are not linear, right? You don't always skate better than you did a month earlier; you can miss a level that you got on a previous day (as happened with several teams at YOG; and also with teams at the JGP Final, for that matter).

Also, some pages ago you were insinuating that Natalie & Bruce were victims of rigged judging:

Not so surprising (the low levels for everyone but the Russians). The TC is Gordon Poltorak (POL). The TS (Baranov) is Ukrainian and he skated for the Soviet Union in his early performing days. The ATS is Julia Rey, from the US---but while Wolfkostin / Chen didn't get any favors either (of course, they had a fall in the RD), they did get an RD score slighly higher than their RD score in their 4th place finish despite the fall.

But now you're saying it reflected their actual abilities. Hmm...

 

[chuckm]

You're aware that teams' performance trajectories are not linear, right? You don't always skate better than you did a month earlier; you can miss a level that you got on a previous day (as happened with several teams at YOG; and also with teams at the JGP Final, for that matter).

Also, some pages ago you were insinuating that Natalie & Bruce were victims of rigged judging:

But now you're saying it reflected their actual abilities. Hmm...

I was insinuating nothing of the kind. The Russians all got high scores and everyone else didn't, including W/C. The RD has been tough for W/C because of their limited experience together. But after 2 JGPs, a Challenge event and YOG, they have gradually improved some, which is why their RD score was slightly higher. However, their FD has been their strength---their FD scores have been higher than the Canadian teams' during the JGP. Their FD scores went up just a bit at YOG, of course not approaching the Russians' scores. It was W/C's FD that earned the YOG bronze medal, and it earned the silver medal at US Championships in Junior Dance. They will be going to JW with Nguyen/Kolesnik and the Browns.

 

[Colonel Green]

I was insinuating nothing of the kind.

Uh, yes, you very clearly indicated you felt that the technical calling was done to benefit the Russian teams at the expense of the others (which I disagreed with, for other reasons). So you cannot turn around and now say that Natalie & Bruce's low levels at YOG show they "didn't really" improve.

 

[skatenewbie]

Yes, she has been named to the 4CC team, as Madeline doesn't have the qualifying scores (looks like they may give Madeline the Jr Worlds if she can ger her qualifying scores at Bavarian Open).

The World team hasn't been named yet. If Emily gets her qualify scores, then one spot should rightfully be hers, but if she doesn't get it, then Alicia would, in my opinion, be next in line for the spot.

Alison is also quite good, and she already have WC min as well. I guess if Emily did not get WC min its a toss between Alison and Alicia who perform better at 4CC go to WC

 

[chuckm]

59.01 is nowhere near 69 and change. And D/W went to YOG shortly after challenge. The point is the Challenge score was pie in the sky, and not in the least realistic. I wouldn't have expected D/W to score anywhere near that high at a subsequent competition, just as I think Gilles / Poirier have zero chance to outscore Papadakis / Cizeron or even SinKats at Worlds because G/P's Nationals score is so wildly, unrealistically inflated.

Nationals scores have zero effect on the outcome of an ISU competition. They just determine which skater(s) will be sent to an ISU Championship. I've never understood why some countries (and Canada is by no means the only one) feel a need to pump up Nationals scores to such unrealistic levels.

 

[Colonel Green]

Alison is also quite good, and she already have WC min as well. I guess if Emily did not get WC min its a toss between Alison and Alicia who perform better at 4CC go to WC

Canada has two spots at Worlds, not one, so I'd guess it's the best two at 4CC who get to go.

59.01 is nowhere near 69 and change. And D/W went to YOG shortly after challenge. The point is the Challenge score was pie in the sky, and not in the least realistic. I wouldn't have expected D/W to score anywhere near that high at a subsequent competition, just as I think Gilles / Poirier have zero chance to outscore Papadakis / Cizeron or even SinKats at Worlds because G/P's Nationals score is so wildly, unrealistically inflated.

And again, it's nationals scoring; nobody here was suggesting that they were going to get scores like that internationally, you just randomly came in to jab that they wouldn't get those scores at Bavarian, a straw man if ever there was one.

And the "point" is that you've completely changed your tune on the scoring at YOG now that you want to bash Canada's dance teams/scoring.

 

[chuckm]

And yes, the Canadian teams won't get Nationals scores at BO, and I doubt K/N will get National level scores at BO either, but I do expect K/N to be a contender. That's not bashing, that's realistic.
You were the one predicting silver and bronze for Canada in YOG dance. Sorry your parade got rained on, but the Russians wanted so badly to win medals in all disciplines at YOG and they did.
I thought W/C had an outside chance of a bronze medal because their FD was so good and they won silver at Golden Spin, but as I recall you poo-pooed that notion, but I didn't accuse you of bashing.

Sometimes I wonder if you actually buy into those huge Nationals scores and base your predictions on them.

 

[Colonel Green]

And yes, the Canadian teams won't get Nationals scores at BO, and I doubt K/N will get National level scores at BO either, but I do expect K/N to be a contender. That's not bashing, that's realistic.

What else would you call coming in to post how it will be "interesting" to see if nationals scores will be reflected internationally, when nobody here was expecting that? That's not even a question; nobody ever suggested that the Challenge results indicated that D/W were on N/K's level, that's not how national scoring works anywhere (except Japan), and everyone knows it.

You were the one predicting silver and bronze for Canada in YOG dance.
...
I thought W/C had an outside chance of a bronze medal because their FD was so good and they won silver at Golden Spin, but as I recall you poo-pooed that notion, but I didn't accuse you of bashing.

In fact if you look at my predictions game entry, I had Natalie & Bruce second and Katarina & Jeffrey third, which was by that point the most common formulation of others as well based on what we knew at that point.

Earlier in the season I may have floated that it was possible they could both make the podium (which it certainly was), but I was not predicting that, particularly by the time the event actually happened and one could better-observe judging trends.

 

[chuckm]

I don't do predictions and don't look at prediction threads. Ice dance in particular is so political that you'd have to know who's going to be on the tech and judging panels to even take a stab at predicting the outcome.

 

[Balloon]

I was under the assumption, when skaters skating within their country there could be score inflation?
Natalie and Bruce I see that they continue to improve, and beside great skating skills they have an awesome connection. For his age Bruce has an amazing way to connect with the ice, audience and judges. I am a huge fan and wish them everything that is offered.
I love the fact that Canada has other strong Canadian junior dance teams to keep them all reaching for more.

 

[Osmond4gold]

I don't do predictions and don't look at prediction threads. Ice dance in particular is so political that you'd have to know who's going to be on the tech and judging panels to even take a stab at predicting the outcome.

That's right Chuckm, as I have not seen any predictions from you since 2017. The last time may have been during the Golden Age of Canadian skating, which some refused to believe would happen, such as Osmond taking the Silver and then Gold at Worlds. Hard for some GS'er, to accept what they could not imagine or would ever predict.

 

[Step Sequence4]

My bad! they got those scores at CHALLENGE: GPF-medal level scores.

Of course, those scores were not quite at the same level as Gilles/Poirier who got Papadakis/Cizeron World Champion-eclipsing scores. In fact G/P's score of 225+ leads the current European Champion.....

Sorry, but I don't see the purpose of such extreme score inflation. At the US Champs, so far the biggest score inflation was for Alysa LIU, who received a total score 35 points higher than anything she has earned internationally---however, she has been skating JUNIOR all season and this was a SENIOR competition.

Chock & Bates got 11 points higher than their GPF total at US nats (I believe it's also their SB) so this doesn't just happen in Canada. It pretty much happens everywhere else but Japan and is the standard for national level scoring. National level scoring just isn't comparable to international.

Also, yes, I am aware your post was likely made before the US nats FD

 

[chuckm]

Chock & Bates got 11 points higher than their GPF total at US nats (I believe it's also their SB) so this doesn't just happen in Canada. It pretty much happens everywhere else but Japan and is the standard for national level scoring. National level scoring just isn't comparable to international.

11 points is de nada compared with the 16.6 Boost Gilles/Poirier got at Can Nats. At least C/B won GPF silver thanks to their witty, original FD that's been scoring higher at each competition.

Nathan Chen scored 330 points which is 5 points less than his SB.