2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[SkateSkates]

It looks like only one Russian girl will make it to JGPF this season. Nice slap to RFFS.

I disagree with a lot of the choices RusFed made (I.e. only 1 sub to USA) but this is a bit premature. There have only been 2 events! And Daria can win this one if she skates clean.

Nothing is guaranteed - the Korean girls skated well at their first events where they probably thought a bronze was achievable but gold/silver was out of reach. Now the pressure is on to deliver again and make the final. Will they be able to rise to the occasion? Maybe. We don’t know.

 

[Edwin]

I disagree with a lot of the choices RusFed made (I.e. only 1 sub to USA) but this is a bit premature. There have only been 2 events! And Daria can win this one if she skates clean.

Nothing is guaranteed - the Korean girls skated well at their first events where they probably thought a bronze was achievable but gold/silver was out of reach. Now the pressure is on to deliver again and make the final. Will they be able to rise to the occasion? Maybe. We don’t know.

You can bet that those Russian skaters who are indeed considered good enough for a chance in JGPF are on constant 'one minute alert', since the events follow each other every week. The biggest 'hurdle' was Lake Placid JPG, the rest is easy-peasy when it comes to travel, timezone and altitude.
Those young skaters need to learn how to conserve themselves, work out every day to the maximum without overextending themselves. Learn how to stay in the flow, remain focussed, exclude external disturbances, the whole mind game. It is exhausting, but it comes with the trade.

Once top juniors and later in the seniors, they could get an invitation to some commercial show or fun event in very short notice and need to be ready to pack their suitcases and go.

When a skater isn't 100% ready, she can still be pulled and subbed back into a later event.

 

[flanker]

It looks like only one Russian girl will make it to JGPF this season. Nice slap to RFFS.

Why? I don't like predictions but when others do cathastrophic ones, why couldn't I do an optimistic one. The result that JGP Riga will be won by a russian girl has the same probability if there is Maiia+Daria or Aliona Kanysheva+any of them. The only potential competitor is Haein Lee (I doubt that Kurakova would reach that level) and if it would be Maiia, 3rd and 1st place would be enough for her to get to the final. If it would be Daria, she could be third on her next competition.

From the six contenders for the final one is Alysa Liu, one can be Seoyeong Wi, one can be Yeonjeong Park and the rest, three spots, are nearly sure for Russians. And those Koreans are still a question, they won silver medals when russian girls made a mistake, there is no way they would defeat them if they were clear. So it depends on how russian girls will deal with nerves on next competitions, there is still possibility that we will see five russian girls in the final. I'm not saying that will happen, but I also don't see that somehow more unlikely than all those doom predictions.

 

[zounger]

Why? I don't like predictions but when others do catastrophic ones, why couldn't I do an optimistic one. The result that JGP Riga will be won by a Russian girl has the same probability if there is Maiia+Daria or Aliona Kanysheva+any of them. The only potential competitor is Haein Lee (I doubt that Kurakova would reach that level) and if it would be Maiia, 3rd and 1st place would be enough for her to get to the final. If it would be Daria, she could be third in her next competition.

From the six contenders for the final one is Alysa Liu, one can be Seoyeong Wi, one can be Yeonjeong Park and the rest, three spots, are nearly sure for Russians. And those Koreans are still a question, the won silver medals when Russian girls made a mistake, there is no way they would defeat them if they were clear. So it depends on how Russian girls will deal with nerves in the next competitions, there is still possible that we will see five Russian girls in the final. I'm not saying that happens, but I also don't see that somehow more unlikely than all those doom predictions.

That's a possibility too

 

[Vilord]

Where did you gues see that Aliona K wasnt going to Riga?

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Where did you gues see that Aliona K wasnt going to Riga?

It's on here: http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03109481.htm
Entries for Russia: Maiia Kromykh and Daria Usacheva

 

[Ice Dance]

It looks like only one Russian girl will make it to JGPF this season.

there is still possibility that we will see five russian girls in the final.

I feel like the odds are quite good the actual results will be somewhere in between these two possibilities.

Sorry to hear that Kanysheva has been removed from the first half of the JGP. Doesn't make strategic sense so it does seem likely she's not ready to compete for some reason. Best wishes to her on making it back for the end of the JGP.

 

[zounger]

I feel like the odds are quite good the actual results will be somewhere in between these two possibilities.

There is no entropy in the middle.

 

[flanker]

I feel like the odds are quite good the actual results will be somewhere in between these two possibilities.

Sorry to hear that Kanysheva has been removed from the first half of the JGP. Doesn't make strategic sense so it does seem likely she's not ready to compete for some reason. Best wishes to her on making it back for the end of the JGP.

If I should line up the possibilities according to their probability, I would do it this way:
1. 3 to 4 russian ladies in the final: 60 %.
2. 5 ladies in the final: 30 %.
3. 1 lady in the final: 10 %.
(Note: those are predictions coming from the starting point that nobody of potentical contenders will be injured, nobody will be hit by metheor etc. ).

 

[Edwin]

If I should line up the possibilities according to their probability, I would do it this way:
1. 3 to 4 russian ladies in the final: 60 %.
2. 5 ladies in the final: 30 %.
3. 1 lady in the final: 10 %.
(Note: those are predictions coming from the starting point that nobody of potentical contenders will be injured, nobody will be hit by metheor etc. ).

Makes sense, as much sense as any other prediction ;-) But without doubt, somebody at FFKKR is pulling his/her hair out over this puzzle. And of course since injuries do happen, with the JGP qualifiers bunched up so close together, there isn't much room to manoeuvre, the chances of the lower 3 FFKKR candidates to make the finals are still slim IMO. Unlike last season, when FFKKR could depend on the 3A 'destroying' the competition, this year's crop is much younger and/or not quite ready, even Kamila is vulnerable, despite being the favourite in the home event. Also, Alysa Liu really showed she is in JGP for real, the ease with which she competed and got her scores mean FFKKR cannot win the 1st place in Gdansk over Alysa.

Me thinks, FFKKR under estimated the JPN and KOR girls, who in Lake Placid didn't succumb to pressure, jet lag or nerves.

JGP is going to be much more exciting.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

So like almost half the troop is injured. Tarusina, then Vasilieva, now Kanysheva. As Eteri’s #2 girl Latvia was Kanysheva’s “easy” chance, there had to be some kind of reason she could not compete here. Now we are running out of time and room for assignments that will give her the best chance. I would absolutely not put her against Alysa and Sinitsyna. Will they put her in Chelyabinsk and bet on her beating out Vasilieva (or whoever ultimately ends up there after this absolute circus plays itself out) for silver? They could wait for Croatia but then she has to compete back to back.

I am still really hoping for back to back assignments in Croatia and Italy for Anna Tarusina. If recovered I absolutely believe she could do it and deserves to have this chance.
She is more solid than anyone and easily could have won silver in France and USA. But they might have to worry about Sinitsyna’s second spot and possibly even Usacheva who could win next week. Now Kanysheva is going to be in that mess since she is missing Latvia. Ugh what a nightmare this is turning out to be.

 

[flanker]

Makes sense, as much sense as any other prediction ;-) But without doubt, somebody at FFKKR is pulling his/her out over this puzzle. And of course since injuries do happen, with the JGP qualifiers bunched up so close together, there isn't much room to manoeuvre, the chances of the lower 3 FFKKR candidates to make the finals are still slim IMO. Unlike last season, when FFKKR could depend on the 3A 'destroying' the competition, this year's crop is much younger and/or not quite ready, even Kamila is vulnerable, despite being the favourite in the home event. Also, Alysa Liu really showed she is in JGP for real, the ease with which she competed and got her scores mean FFKKR cannot win the 1st place in Gdansk over Alysa.

Me thinks, FFKKR under estimated the JPN and KOR girls, who in Lake Placid didn't succumb to pressure, jet lag or nerves.

JGP is going to be much more exciting.

As we are in russian ladies thread, I feel I can say that "the ease with which Alysa competed and got her scores" depends on benevolence of the tech panel and the judges. The panel at the Courchevel was more strict than the one at Lake Placid (I don't mean only in Alysa's case). But apart from Alysa, who definitely should win her JGP, the other contenders (Koreans) didn't perform anything special or unbeatable in comparison to any of russian girls' capabilities. Their medals came from russian mistakes, but in case Koreans would be clean and Russian would be clean, Russians would win. Yes, this season's girls have much less experience overally than the last season and on the other hand there are much higher expectations from them than e.g. it was two seasons ago from Sasha, Aliona, Anastasia, Daria P. and Sofia, who were mostly unknown till they started to compete on JGP, yet still their standards are the highest. But whatever FFKKR underestimated (or not), what should they do about it, they cannot create any new skater from the air. They play with cards they have, but saying this their cards are not low like some people try to impose.

 

[Edwin]

More children celebrating Knowledge Day, the start of their school year.
Sof'ya Akat'yeva and her brother Aleksandr: https://www.instagram.com/p/B16QMakp2ND/
Lyubov Rubtsova: https://www.instagram.com/p/B156o3aJR5h

All kids nicely dressed in their uniforms.

There sure must be more photos, but I already have too many social media accounts to keep track of.

 

[Edwin]

As we are in russian ladies thread, I feel I can say that "the ease with which Alysa competed and got her scores" depends on benevolence of the tech panel and the judges. The panel at the Courchevel was more strict than the one at Lake Placid (I don't mean only in Alysa's case). But apart from Alysa, who definitely should win her JGP, the other contenders (Koreans) didn't perform anything special or unbeatable in comparison to any of russian girls' capabilities. Their medals came from russian mistakes, but in case Koreans would be clean and Russian would be clean, Russians would win. Yes, this season's girls have much less experience overally than the last season and on the other hand there are much higher expectations from them than e.g. it was two seasons ago from Sasha, Aliona, Anastasia, Daria P. and Sofia, who were mostly unknown till they started to compete on JGP, yet still their standards are the highest. But whatever FFKKR underestimated (or not), what should they do about it, they cannot create any new skater from the air. They play with cards they have, but saying this their cards are not low like some people try to impose.

I think with these very young and untried contestants, it is not so much a matter of skating skills, but of keeping yourself together, no succumbing to jitter, nerves, pressure or expectations. For any of these skaters, their first 'breaking of the ice' is always the hardest, afterwards a second start is easier in their minds. Having a good first start under adverse conditions (time zone, jet lag, altitude) gives your self confidence a boost. FFKKR is sort of in trouble with Davydov's skaters, reducing their cards in play. Wether putting Khromykh in Riga JGP is a power move or a desperate move I cannot guess. I would have put Sinitsyna up, but perhaps some logistics prevented this. The deck will be shuffled again Sunday evening, and by then the trump cards could be called. Only after the home event, the end game should be put to the table.

Anyway, the team will travel tomorrow and start with official practice on Wednesday. Two medals should be very possible.

Together with the chances at medals in the boys and pairs/dance, the financial incentive should also be motivating, those thousands of SFR are not to be foregone. But perhaps this should not be put on the skaters with too much emphasis.

 

[Ice Dance]

Whether putting Khromykh in Riga JGP is a power move or a desperate move I cannot guess.

I don't see how it can be a power move. Khromykh lost to Korea's #2 in France. Moving her to go up against Korea's #1 isn't a power move. Khromykh has a shot of winning in Riga, but moving a bronze medalist in her first season into an event instead of an athlete that has already qualified for the JGPF doesn't sound like a power move. It sounds like Haein's odds just got better and like something is probably not right with Kanysheva.

Unfortunately, I don't think it sounds like Tarusina is likely to make it back for the series. (My understanding is that she had problems after a surgery and then had a follow-up surgery to relieve the problems only a couple weeks before Lake Placid?)

Keeping my fingers crossed that we will see Kanysheva.

It seems quite likely that Russia will go at least 1 & 2 in Russia. (Araki is there, and I like her very much; but based on jump formats, it seems likely she would need mistakes from others to play spoiler).

 

[Ostap Bender]

I guess they are obliged to participate to that joke called test skates but I would preferred they didn’t.

Russian skaters, based on interviews and comments, find Test Skates very helpful. It is an event that has the competitive atmosphere yet does not affect their official scores and ranking. It is an opportunity to have their programmes performed, evaluated by many professionals and to receive a valuable feedback and corrections. They see it as help and not an obligation.

 

[Ostap Bender]

Wether putting Khromykh in Riga JGP is a power move or a desperate move I cannot guess.

It is a power move, but not just for Khromykh, but Kanysheva as well.
- Khromykh with 3rd place finish, is not likely to surpass Liu in Poland, 2nd or even 3rd place is more likely, and that would put her out of JGPF. In Riga she has a change at 1st place. It is a bigger chance than with Lui in Poland.
- Kanysheva can do a quad. If she is still working on stability now, perhaps skating 1-2 weeks later gives her more practice. It is good that she is moved to a later event.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCc1jmm2ctY

 

[Ice Dance]

the other contenders (Koreans) didn't perform anything special or unbeatable in comparison to any of russian girls' capabilities. Their medals came from russian mistakes, but in case Koreans would be clean and Russian would be clean, Russians would win.

In the case of Korea's #5, I would guess. But Park did defeat Tarakanova in the free as well as the short.

In the case of Korea's #2? I don't know. Valieva & Khromykh will have already done their second event before she skates. I am waiting to see the other Russian girls. Wi's technical mark was good in both portions of competition in France, and of course sometimes winning a medal helps one bring in higher scores the next time around. She has a very tough field in Poland, with both Liu & Sinitsina there, so coming out of it with a result higher than bronze will be very tough. However, if Russia moves Sinitsina away from Liu in order to try to get Sinitsina a win, then Wi's odds of making the final go up.

And then there is Haein. Haein is scheduled for Croatia. With who? Kanysheva who is now a question mark. And Tarakanova, who is also something of a question mark & just lost to Park. So, really, we don't know what to expect with the Russian lineup there. As I said earlier, if Kanysheva is not in the lineup, Haein's odds appear to go up. Maybe not if Sinitsina gets moved there, but she, alone, cannot keep both Korea's #2 and #1 out of the final. Perhaps neither. (Haein's difficulty is probably on par with the other Korean ladies, but her PCS is higher so her ceiling is higher. Her competitive experience and recognizeability with the judges are also higher. And, of course, the pressure may be higher. This will be a new experience for her coming into the JGP as the leader among the Korean ladies. She's done pretty well under pressure though. Won the Korean JGP qualifier with two very nice skates and won the bronze at Korean Senior Nationals last year).

And if Kanysheva does skate two events late on the JGP, well, that makes for deeper fields & makes things interesting. As far as the new Russian JGP junior ladies are concerned, I look forward to seeing them skate.

The junior ladies field feels very unpredictable this year.

 

[Elucidus]

Me thinks, FFKKR under estimated the JPN and KOR girls, who in Lake Placid didn't succumb to pressure, jet lag or nerves.

Correction: they underestimated KOR girls only. JPN ones didn't show anything to make them worthy consideration so far.

 

[flanker]

In the case of Korea's #5, I would guess. But Park did defeat Tarakanova in the free as well as the short.

In the case of Korea's #2? I don't know. Valieva & Khromykh will have already done their second event before she skates. I am waiting to see the other Russian girls. Wi's technical mark was good in both portions of competition in France, and of course sometimes winning a medal helps one bring in higher scores the next time around. She has a very tough field in Poland, with both Liu & Sinitsina there, so coming out of it with a result higher than bronze will be very tough. However, if Russia moves Sinitsina away from Liu in order to try to get Sinitsina a win, then Wi's odds of making the final go up.

And then there is Haein. Haein is scheduled for Croatia. With who? Kanysheva who is now a question mark. And Tarakanova, who is also something of a question mark & just lost to Park. So, really, we don't know what to expect with the Russian lineup there. As I said earlier, if Kanysheva is not in the lineup, Haein's odds appear to go up. Maybe not if Sinitsina gets moved there, but she, alone, cannot keep both Korea's #2 and #1 out of the final. Perhaps neither. (Haein's difficulty is probably on par with the other Korean ladies, but her PCS is higher so her ceiling is higher. Her competitive experience and recognizeability with the judges are also higher. And, of course, the pressure may be higher. This will be a new experience for her coming into the JGP as the leader among the Korean ladies. She's done pretty well under pressure though. Won the Korean JGP qualifier with two very nice skates and won the bronze at Korean Senior Nationals last year).

And if Kanysheva does skate two events late on the JGP, well, that makes for deeper fields & makes things interesting. As far as the new Russian JGP junior ladies are concerned, I look forward to seeing them skate.

The junior ladies field feels very unpredictable this year.

I'm saying that any of the Koreans NEED Russian competitor to make a mistake. Russians, if clean, don't need Koreans to make a mistake. So the only question is whether Russians will skate clean or not.