2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[IndiaP12]

Barring injury, I already call the Olympic Gold Medal to Valieva. She's strongest on the second mark, yet is probably on the first mark too.

I don’t know. Spins and PCS-wise she is incredibly strong, but she has a deteriorating technique on her jumps and there’s something weird going on with her combos. That should cost her GOEs. Unless she fixes that or her quad becomes consistent idk

 

[moriel]

Im not convinced that Valieva's jumps will survive pubery.

 

[Happy Skates]

Im not convinced that Valieva's jumps will survive pubery.

She's 15 in the Olympic year, so they don't exactly have to

 

[Bluediamonds09]

No, they're not on the team at all.

That makes me sad, I like both of them.

 

[moriel]

She's 15 in the Olympic year, so they don't exactly have to

chances are they will become wonky right then.
Remember Alina growing around and after the Olympics?

its kind of too close to call medals.

 

[Elucidus]

Ehh last year both Samodurova and Panenkova were both of the main junior team if I recall correctly and they both got assignments

If I remember correctly from last year someone said it was better money to be on novice main team than junior reserve. For example Tarakanova and Sherbakova also was on the novice team last year (and Tarakanova also two years ago I think). From what Ive seen over the past year they are verry likely to get at least one JGP, or at the verry least be invited to test skates (if they are of junior age that is)

Hm, interesting. Considering the above and the fact that Tarusina have better SB - I would say it is more likely that Tarusina will get two senior GP spots and Gubanova and Konstabtionova will get only 1 each. Sakhanovich and Sotskova will be left out.
Let's not forget that national team lists is about funding and RusFed priorities - not about actual GP assignments or allocating junior/senior status. And if reserve teams are getting less money than even main teams from minor categories - it means reserve teams have much less priority for RusFed (and it's very plausible because there were Lipnickaya and Pogorilaya on reserve team when it was known that they were having health issues and most likely wouldn't be able to compete).

 

[Happy Skates]

chances are they will become wonky right then.
Remember Alina growing around and after the Olympics?

its kind of too close to call medals.

Oh yeah, I agree that there's no way to call medals. Four years ago, Alina wasn't even on the JGP yet, and no one would've called her winning.

 

[Scott512]

Oh yeah, I agree that there's no way to call medals. Four years ago, Alina wasn't even on the JGP yet, and no one would've called her winning.

So true. Alina was a true Dark Horse then just exploded on the scene.

 

[Vandevska]

I hope they don’t hype her up too much. I hope the pressure doesn’t get to her :/

This is my main fear too. Although I'm having my fingers crossed hard that her technique survives or that at least it gets better because I'm a sucker for lyrical skaters like her (even though it's too early to call her a lyrical skater, she's just getting started she can develop into something even more beautiful).

 

[colormyworld240]

Sadly, I can't see her learning 3a or a quad. Her jump technique is kind of wonky. But I would love to be surprised! At least this season, I want her to go out on the SGP, land everything (3Lz-3Lp, 3F-3T) and be happy with that. Her SS and other PCS will finally be recognized (no offense to Samodurova, but Gubanova is way ahead in terms of PCS and really in TES). She can stand out.

I'm curious where you get the TES part from? Sofia has teeny tiny Satoko-sized jumps, but her technique is solid (thanks, Mishin). Not to mention she's incredibly consistent, I don't think she's fallen this entire season - someone correct me if I'm wrong. Where as Nastia's jumps are often muscled, off axis, and some, like her lutz, look incredibly unstable. I'd say the only thing in her TES that is way ahead is the step sequence. PCS is also not just skating skills, which is what Nastia does better than Sofia. But Sofia is a performer, and has good interpretation of music; you don't have to be lyrical to interpret music, if you're not using lyrical music.

I loved Nastia 17 - 18 season, and that R&J was a masterpiece. And I was shattered for her when she missed out on worlds twice when she really deserved it. But Sofia earned her place last season much more than Nastia has and proved to be a higher performing and more reliable skater.

 

[Scott512]

I'm curious where you get the TES part from? Sofia has teeny tiny Satoko-sized jumps, but her technique is solid (thanks, Mishin). Not to mention she's incredibly consistent, I don't think she's fallen this entire season - someone correct me if I'm wrong. Where as Nastia's jumps are often muscled, off axis, and some, like her lutz, look incredibly unstable. I'd say the only thing in her TES that is way ahead is the step sequence. PCS is also not just skating skills, which is what Nastia does better than Sofia. But Sofia is a performer, and has good interpretation of music; you don't have to be lyrical to interpret music, if you're not using lyrical music.

I loved Nastia 17 - 18 season, and that R&J was a masterpiece. And I was shattered for her when she missed out on worlds twice when she really deserved it. But Sofia earned her place last season much more than Nastia has and proved to be a higher performing and more reliable skater.

Consistency is crucial that's the main advantage Sofia has. I agree with you about how Nastya had missed opportunities due to the Russian Federation and I don't know what shebwould have done with those opportunities because they're gone forever. Nastya will have chances now but it will be harder for her now than it would have been a year or two ago because of the insane depth of the Russian ladies.

 

[Payako]

I'm curious where you get the TES part from? Sofia has teeny tiny Satoko-sized jumps, but her technique is solid (thanks, Mishin). Not to mention she's incredibly consistent, I don't think she's fallen this entire season - someone correct me if I'm wrong. Where as Nastia's jumps are often muscled, off axis, and some, like her lutz, look incredibly unstable. I'd say the only thing in her TES that is way ahead is the step sequence. PCS is also not just skating skills, which is what Nastia does better than Sofia. But Sofia is a performer, and has good interpretation of music; you don't have to be lyrical to interpret music, if you're not using lyrical music.

Listen people who are comparing nastya and sofia.You guys said nastya has ugly jumps.Then I'm gonna ask what's wrong with that?There's nothing wrong with scores.What should be fixed is wrong edge,underrotations,poor skating skill which can affect scores.

Nastya didn't get many chances to show her.
She once proved herself at jgpf.She got 133.77 in the FP.This was world record.There was no choreo but she got 71.23 Tes.
This means she can get high scores with her ugly jumps.

What about Sofia?You think she's a nice performer.Judges do not think same as you.That is shown in her pcs.She cannot get high Pcs with that SS.
What about her jumps?No height No distance.That's why she can't get high Goe on her jumps.Unlike her, Nastya can get high Goe because she has decent height and distance on her jumps.

Everyone thinks Sofia's consistency is great but I don't.I think Medvedeva was great with her consistency.She has consistency but also high score.There is no high score in sofia's cosistency.This is the difference.

It's true Nastya had unstable jumps when she was junior.Now she has been fixing it and her legs are getting strong which makes her jumps more stable.This is why she could bring lutzloop combination with two repeated lutz and flip.
I'll admit i was wrong if Sofia brings tough jumps.I know she can't.That will cost her consistency which is only good point she has.I'm sure many skater will be more consistent if they bring easy jumping elements like Sofia.

 

[colormyworld240]

Listen people who are comparing nastya and sofia.You guys said nastya has ugly jumps.Then I'm gonna ask what's wrong with that?There's nothing wrong with scores.What should be fixed is wrong edge,underrotations,poor skating skill which can affect scores.

Nastya didn't get many chances to show her.
She once proved herself at jgpf.She got 133.77 in the FP.This was world record.There was no choreo but she got 71.23 Tes.
This means she can get high scores with her ugly jumps.

What about Sofia?You think she's a nice performer.Judges do not think same as you.That is shown in her pcs.She cannot get high Pcs with that SS.
What about her jumps?No height No distance.That's why she can't get high Goe on her jumps.Unlike her, Nastya can get high Goe because she has decent height and distance on her jumps.

Everyone thinks Sofia's consistency is great but I don't.I think Medvedeva was great with her consistency.She has consistency but also high score.There is no high score in sofia's cosistency.This is the difference.

It's true Nastya had unstable jumps when she was junior.Now she has been fixing it and her legs are getting strong which makes her jumps more stable.This is why she could bring lutzloop combination with two repeated lutz and flip.
I'll admit i was wrong if Sofia brings tough jumps.��I know she can't.That will cost her consistency which is only good point she has.I'm sure many skater will be more consistent if they bring easy jumping elements like Sofia.

Nastia's issues aren't because she has "ugly jumps", I don't recall anyone saying that. Her jumps has technical deficiencies that do affect her score, apart from missed landings. If you think the only thing that affects scoring in jumping passes are "wrong edges and under rotations", then this conversation is pointless because there is much more that goes into jump quality and therefore GOE than those. I'm not sure why you think Sofia doesn't score well; she's been scoring higher than Nastia all season. That is what she is the reigning European Champion. And this include TES as well. I believe she scored 141 in her FS at Euros, a prestigious international competition, which is higher than any score Nastia has ever posted, international or domestic.

 

[moriel]

Also, people, when you speak about TES, keep in mind that there is a huge difference between planned TES and executed TES.

For example, lets look at the TES of both skaters.
Samodurova
Lombardia: 35.13 + 60.45
SA: 35.82 + 72.07
Rostelecom: 37.00 + 67.07
GPF: 37.12 + 72.82
Rusnats: 38.37 + 70.30
Euros: 39.25 + 72.44
Worlds: 38.71 + 71.87
Average SP TES: 37.34
Average FS TES: 69.57
Average Total TES: 106.91

Gubanova
Moscow Open: 36.86 + 65.59
Russian Cup 1: 32.51 + 64.69
Russian Cup 4: 36.96 + 76.84
Tallin: 30.77 + 61.20
Rusnats: 37.95 + 69.33
Russian Cup Final: 41.18 + 64.56
Average SP TES: 36.04
Average FS TES: 67.04
Average Total TES: 103,08


Here between us, i'd say arguably Gubanova has lower TES than Samodurova.

But... averages arent very informativa, and Gubanova can do a 76 in FS, right?
So I decided to run a little simulation. For each skater, I sample one SP and one FS score out of the scores above, and then repeat it a million times. Here are some results:
- Probability of Samodurova beating Gubanova in TES in SP: 64%
- Probability of Samodurova beating Gubanova in TES in FS: 69%
- Probability of Samodurova beating Gubanova in Total TES: 72%
- Probability of Gubanova beating Samodurova by 5+ points in TES: 14%
- Probability of Samodurova beating Gubanova by 5+ points in TES: 48%
- Probability of Gubanova beating Samodurova by 10+ points in TES: 5%
- Probability of Samodurova beating Gubanova by 10+ points in TES: 21%

Of course this is just a simulation, but well, sort of maybe explains what I am talking about

 

[bubblecherry]

What about Daria Usacheva? To my preference, she has better everything than her peers, including Kamila(besides spins, I guess). Granted, I don't keep up with juniors and below as much so maybe I'm missing information. Why isn't she on the national team?

 

[SkateSkates]

What about Daria Usacheva? To my preference, she has better everything than her peers, including Kamila(besides spins, I guess). Granted, I don't keep up with juniors and below as much so maybe I'm missing information. Why isn't she on the national team?

Unfortunately she seemed to struggle a bit with nerves and lack of consistency in the 2nd half of the season. All of the girls on the main junior team placed above her at Jr Nats (except Kanysheva who had a strong intl season). It’s very difficult to make the main junior team before making your junior international debut, so Kamila is more of an exception due to her dominance this season.

 

[bubblecherry]

Unfortunately she seemed to struggle a bit with nerves and lack of consistency in the 2nd half of the season. All of the girls on the main junior team placed above her at Jr Nats (except Kanysheva who had a strong intl season). It’s very difficult to make the main junior team before making your junior international debut, so Kamila is more of an exception due to her dominance this season.

Well, that seems understandable and fair. Is there still a chance for her to get JGPs? I'm hoping she keeps improving and doesn't fall too far behind her peers in terms of consistency and assignments. I really like her skating.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Well, that seems understandable and fair. Is there still a chance for her to get JGPs? I'm hoping she keeps improving and doesn't fall too far behind her peers in terms of consistency and assignments. I really like her skating.

I don't see why not, imo at least. She beat Kamila once, was second at RCF for juniors, was top ten at jr. nats., etc. She most of the trio, imo, needs to really make a statement at test skates, but there's definitely a strong case for JGP assignments. She's also improved her combos a lot from beginning to end of the season (in terms of difficulty and layouts).

It seems likely that 8-9 skaters will initially get JGPs, with the 6-7 best getting a second one (15 spots total). So Usacheva should be set even if Tarusina stays junior:

1. Valieva
2. Kromykh
3. Tarakanova
4. Sinitsyna
5. Kanysheva
6. Vasilieva
7. Tarusina
... 8. Usacheva

(of course, they're not really ranked at this point )

 

[SkateSkates]

Well, that seems understandable and fair. Is there still a chance for her to get JGPs? I'm hoping she keeps improving and doesn't fall too far behind her peers in terms of consistency and assignments. I really like her skating.

She definitely has a chance if she does well at the test skates. Here is the list from last year - junior team was Alena, Sasha, Gubanova, Panenkova, Vasilieva, and Samodurova
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://fsrussia.ru/files/docs/RUteam1819.pdf

All had international success in 16/17 and/or 17/18, and all 3 of the age eligible skaters actually competed senior.

 

[Payako]

Nastia's issues aren't because she has "ugly jumps", I don't recall anyone saying that. Her jumps has technical deficiencies that do affect her score, apart from missed landings. If you think the only thing that affects scoring in jumping passes are "wrong edges and under rotations", then this conversation is pointless because there is much more that goes into jump quality and therefore GOE than those. I'm not sure why you think Sofia doesn't score well; she's been scoring higher than Nastia all season. That is what she is the reigning European Champion. And this include TES as well. I believe she scored 141 in her FS at Euros, a prestigious international competition, which is higher than any score Nastia has ever posted, international or domestic.

Well people are saying like ugly wobbled muscled about her jumps.If I am wrong, then tell me the deficiencies that you think.
And i think you did not watch her protocol.You can see there is no deduction for her scores.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/gpf1617/

Seriously both are not like yuna or tuktamysheva.I don't expect them to have no problem with their jumps.

If you are saying that she scored 141 at Euros.How about Gp Gpf Worlds WTT?Euros was generous.Big score is not that important.Scoring is a relative thing.It becomes more important when it comes to compare with other skaters in same competiton.

Right she is european champion.But It doesnt mean she's very talented.She is not like Zagitova or Medvedeva.
Rusfed didn't want her to go Euros.They wanted zagitova, Konstantionova and Medvedeva.She was third at national even she almost made clean performance while Zagitova and konstantinova made many mistakes.Ialready knew Rusfed will send konstantinova over Sofia.But I never expected Tuktamysheva to getpneumonia

Sofia is so lucky compare with someone who always has been victim of corruption.Honestly Gubanova or tarusina should have gone to Euros and could be champion.When underscoring pcs and spin levels, chances are gone.

Even nastya always has been underscored but I expect next season will be quite different for her.Because It looks like she is going to get GP spots.This means Buyanova is working.And we know what Buyanova has done with her authority for a long time.I'm very interested to see what's going on