2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Edwin]

The just concluded GP qualifying rounds showed that #TeamMishin's approach doesn't cut it anymore.

We'll have to wait and see what they bring to the ice in Russian National Championships, but them and their supporters in FFKKR having to swallow a bitter pill of disappointment cannot be ruled out. Also the CSKA faction will be malcontent over the dominance of Sambo-70 in female single skating. The other disciplines might balance things out a little, here Sankt Peterburg, the other Moscow rinks and even those strong regional centers bring their best skaters to the Grand Prix's and National Championships.

But female single skating is strongly in the hands of #TeamTutberidzeForProgress at the moment, with a good outlook of keeping that grip firm in the years to come.

 

[laybackrelaxspinfast]

Just for reference, combining their best scores from both programs across different competitions. I added a little potential possible total to reflect what they could score if they went clean.

[table="width: 500, class:grid, align: center"]
[tr]
[td]Skater[/td]
[td]SP[/td]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]Total[/td]
[td]Possible Total[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Sasha[/td]
[td]74.91[/td]
[td]166.62[/td]
[td]241.53[/td]
[td]~250-255[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Alyona[/td]
[td]85.04[/td]
[td]159.45[/td]
[td]244.49[/td]
[td]~248-250[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Anna[/td]
[td]73.51[/td]
[td]160.61[/td]
[td]233.67[/td]
[td]~240-242[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Zhenya[/td]
[td]76.93[/td]
[td]148.83[/td]
[td]225.76[/td]
[td]~228-230[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Alina[/td]
[td]74.24[/td]
[td]151.15[/td]
[td]225.39[/td]
[td]~233-236[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

That’s incredible! That’s what I was trying to work out, thank you!

 

[colormyworld240]

Imagine if the Russian girls just start throwing down quads at Russian national as a last shot at it before worlds! That would be total insanity, but so entertaining! I’m holding on to the hope that Evgenia will go for her quad sal at Russian nationals. That would be incredible.

I think desperately trying to throw quads is a sure fire way to get injured, for both Alina and Evgenia. We haven't seen either of them doing one with an assist. Not even with a fall, UR, or downgrade.

Maybe they can learn them properly and quickly, but just going for it because "they have nothing to lose" when they're not ready is a bad idea. They might not make Worlds, but they still have a career.

 

[lusterfan]

The just concluded GP qualifying rounds showed that #TeamMishin's approach doesn't cut it anymore.

We'll have to wait and see what they bring to the ice in Russian National Championships, but them and their supporters in FFKKR having to swallow a bitter pill of disappointment cannot be ruled out. Also the CSKA faction will be malcontent over the dominance of Sambo-70 in female single skating. The other disciplines might balance things out a little, here Sankt Peterburg, the other Moscow rinks and even those strong regional centers bring their best skaters to the Grand Prix's and National Championships.

But female single skating is strongly in the hands of #TeamTutberidzeForProgress at the moment, with a good outlook of keeping that grip firm in the years to come.

On one hand, it's sad to see his students get shafted. On the other hand, it's not entirely baseless. Sofia's jumps just aren't on par with the rest of the field anymore. Especially now that she's not even in the Russian Top 6, judges have completely dropped her. It was painful to see her on the brink of tears in the kiss and cry ... ugh, but she just can't compare anymore. Liza still has a shot, but she's being shot in the foot by her own team's composition. In a world where we have Eteri-score maximizing programs, +SEQ jumps from Liza automatically push her out of the equation. She will need to be smarter about her jump content, but I'm not sure her inherently low PCS will be enough to make a big splash.

 

[Jontor]

Yes! Great competition for our Russian girls!

Alina - Great to see a clean skate from her. I wish she will be super clean at GPF to see how far that gets her. She still has a chance to medal there.

Alyona - Another fantastic skate. She was a bit lucky though that her second 3A wasn't >>, she landed forward didn't she? If she is super clean at GPF I think she can take Trusova.

Sofia - Lots of URs and she doesn't seem to get over 125 points this season in the free. Still has a chance to better her SB at Golden Spin.

 

[karina17]

Has anyone done the maths and took the seasons best scores for the sp and fs for each girl and figured out their ranking potentials amongst one another for Russian nationals? I know each competition scores differently but it would give us a good idea. Obviously Sasha and Aliona are first and second, but I wonder where the other girls currently rank against one another and some had harder Grand Prix events than others for sure.

Ladies ranked based on average scores this season:

(I took this info from skatingscores.com, then factored in NHK for Alina, Sofia and Alyona, since it hasn't been updated yet. I deleted the juniors who are too young to be at Rusnats this year.)

(1) Trusova - 238.06 (CS Nepela, GP CAN, GP RUS)

(2) Kostornaya - 236.95 (CS Finlandia, GP FRA, GP JPN)

(3) Shcherbakova - 224.00 (CS Lombardia, GP USA, GP CHN)

(4) Medvedeva - 217.60 (CS Autumn Classic, GP CAN, GP RUS)

(5) Zagitova - 217.03 (GP FRA, GP JPN)

(6) Tuktamysheva - 210.50 (CS Lombardia, CS Finlandia, GP USA, GP CHN)

(7) Sinitsyna - 209.92 (JGP RUS, JGP ITA)

(8) Vasilieva - 197.63 (JGP RUS, JGP POL)

(9) Tarakanova - 187.02 (JGP USA, JGP POL)

(10) Nugumanova - 186.02 (CS Warsaw)

(11) Samodurova - 183.84 (CS Lombardia, CS Ice Star, GP CHN, GP JPN)

(12) Sakhanovich - 177.12 (GP CAN, CS Warsaw)

 

[colormyworld240]

Here's what I think will happen at nationals:

If Sasha is clean, she wins. If she falls once, Alena can win if she is 100% clean with excellent execution on everything. Both are possible, both are difficult, and neither have been done before.

If Anna is clean, she will get the third spot. If Anna makes a small mistake, like a fall in step sequence in SP, she will still beat a squeaky clean Alina/Evgenia. Anna will not get edge calls at nationals, but even if she does so will Evgenia and Alina, so it's even in that department.

If Anna falls on a quad, or both, I think it'll be more interesting. Then whoever is clean out of Alina/Evgenia will go. But Alina can probably afford small mistakes because she has a more difficult BV in comparison.

But it is clear whoever makes a major error in SP; a fall or a pop, will probably be out. And it's interesting because they've all done this. Alina and Evgenia this season on the GP, and the 3A last season.

 

[lusterfan]

Here's what I think will happen at nationals:

If Sasha is clean, she wins. If she falls once, Alena can win if she is 100% clean with excellent execution on everything. Both are possible, both are difficult, and neither have been done before.

If Anna is clean, she will get the third spot. If Anna makes a small mistake, like a fall in step sequence in SP, she will still beat a squeaky clean Alina/Evgenia. Anna will not get edge calls at nationals, but even if she does so will Evgenia and Alina, so it's even in that department.

If Anna falls on a quad, or both, I think it'll be more interesting. Then whoever is clean out of Alina/Evgenia will go. But Alina can probably afford small mistakes because she has a more difficult BV in comparison.

But it is clear whoever makes a major error in SP; a fall or a pop, will probably be out. And it's interesting because they've all done this. Alina and Evgenia this season on the GP, and the 3A last season.

Given how ugly it got last nationals, with Stasya ending up in 1st among the seniors ... I just hope everyone skates clean so we can just send the best. It will get even more ugly this season if anything gets questionable

 

[colormyworld240]

Given how ugly it got last nationals, with Stasya ending up in 1st among the seniors ... I just hope everyone skates clean so we can just send the best. It will get even more ugly this season if anything gets questionable

It might be even more sad if they all skate clean. Then you'll see massive scores and amazing performances. And you'll know the top 6 really all deserve to go but only half of them can. And if they're all clean, it'll likely be they'll have very close scores. Last season, I think scoring between top 3 was less than a point difference. Can you imagine missing out on the world team by less than a point? I think it's unlikely anyway, none of the Russian ladies have had a totally clean competition this season; no edge call no URs.

 

[Jontor]

*UPDATED* Russian Ladies in the SB list after GP NHK Trophy - 22 (of 30) events

1 (1) - Alexandra Trusova, RUS 241.02 - GP Skate Canada
2 (2) - Alena Kostornaia, RUS 240.00 - GP NHK Trophy
3 (3) - Rika Kihira, JPN 231.84 - GP NHK Trophy
4 (4) - Anna Shcherbakova, RUS 227.76 - GP Skate America
5 (5) - Evgenia Medvedeva, RUS 225.76 - GP Rostelecom Cup
6 (6) - Kamila Valieva (J), RUS 221.95 - JGP Chelyabinsk
7 (9) - Alina Zagitova, RUS 217.99 - GP NHK Trophy
8 (7) - Young You, KOR 217.49 - GP Skate Canada
9 (8) - Bradie Tennell, USA 216.14 - GP Skate America
10 (10) - Ksenia Sinitsyna, RUS 215.58 - JGP Egna/Neumarkt
11 (11) - Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, RUS 214.38 - CS Lombardia Trophy
12 (12) - Mariah Bell, USA 212.89 - GP Internationaux de France
13 (13) - Satoko Miyahara, JPN 211.18 - GP Cup of China
14 (14) - Alysa Liu (J), USA 208.10 - JGP Lake Placid
15 (15) - Haein Lee, KOR 203.40 - JGP Croatia Cup
16 (16) - Kaori Sakamoto, JPN 202.47 - GP Skate America
17 (17) - Ekaterina Kurakova, POL 201.47 - CS Warsaw Cup
18 (18) - Viktoria Vasilieva, RUS 198.79 - JGP Chelyabinsk
19 (19) - Eunsoo Lim, KOR 197.63 - CS Asian Open Trophy
20 (20) - Daria Usacheva (J), RUS 197.19 - JGP Croatia Cup
21 (21) - Anastasia Tarakanova, RUS 194.74 - JGP Baltic Cup
22 (22) - Rino Matsuike, JPN 193.03 - JGP Riga Cup
23 (23) - Yuhana Yokoi, JPN 191.90 - CS Finlandia Trophy
24 (24) - Seoyeong Wi, KOR 191.07 - JGP Courchevel
-----------------------------------------------------------
25 (25) - Maiia Khromykh (J), RUS 190.73 - JGP Riga Cup
28 (27) - Sofia Samodurova, RUS 187.16 - CS Ice Star Minsk
32 (31) - Elizaveta Nugumanova, RUS 186.02 - CS Warsaw Cup
34 (33) - Anna Frolova (J), RUS 181.96 - JGP Croatia Cup
42 (41) - Serafima Sakhanovich, RUS 178.27 - CS Warsaw Cup
68 (67) - Stanislava Konstantinova, RUS 162.25 - CS Nepela Memorial
81 (81) - Maria Sotskova 155.25 - CS Nepela Memorial


Zagitova climbs a few steps. Kostornaia is very close to Trusova now.
In two weeks GPF Final with Trusova, Kostornaia, Shcherbakova, Zagitova
and JGPF Final with Valieva, Sinitsyna, Vasilieva, Usacheva
and Golden Spin of Zagreb with Samodurova, Tuktamysheva

Top 24 in the SB list, except juniors (J), are guaranteed at least one spot at the senior GP next year
Last year, to be in the Top 24 in the Seasons Best List you had to score 196.34.

 

[ramed]

I feel like we've all gotten used to RusFed's tactics

Correct wording is: "We've all got used to the speculations at the forum about RusFed's possible tactics, if they exist at all, although none of us has a hand in RusFed or has the slightest clue of what happens in it behind the doors, but we all are so proud to pretend we're the experts in all things RusFed." I'm not pointing this at lusterfan specifically, it is about all those who like to present some overly colorful fruits of their imagination as facts.

 

[DougDorsey]

I get all the enthusiasm for Alena right now, but in the longer term beyond this season, I still put my money on Sasha and Anna.

Why? Body type. Whereas Anna and Sasha are svelte (or, in Sasha's case, athletic and toned), Alena is boxy. Tiny, yes, but boxy.

That's not an issue now, but as her hips begin to widen, there's a good chance of her becoming bottom heavy; the closest analogy for this might be Samodurova's body development over the past year, and we're all seeing how this has impacted Sofia's skating and jumps. Actually, now that I think about it, Lipnitskaya's body development might serve as an even better analogy for Kostornaia.

I get that this might not be a popular opinion - and it's far from a sure thing, as body development can be unpredictable - but, again, if I were betting long-term on any of them at this point in time, say for Beijing 2022, I'd be putting my money down on Sasha and Anna over Alena for this very reason.

 

[Edwin]

I get all the enthusiasm for Alena right now, but in the longer term beyond this season, I still put my money on Sasha and Anna.

Why? Body type. Whereas Anna and Sasha are svelte (or, in Sasha's case, athletic and toned), Alena is boxy. Tiny, yes, but boxy.

That's not an issue now, but as her hips begin to widen, there's a good chance of her becoming bottom heavy; the closest analogy for this might be Samodurova's body development over the past year, and we're all seeing how this has impacted Sofia's skating and jumps. Actually, now that I think about it, Lipnitskaya's body development might serve as an even better analogy for Kostornaia.

I get that this might not be a popular opinion - and it's far from a sure thing, as body development can be unpredictable - but, again, if I were betting on any of them at this point in time, say for Beijing 2022, I'd be putting my money down on Sasha and Anna over Alena for this very reason.

Valid posting, but like you said, it is hard to predict what these young skaters will grow into, either by body or by mind. First of all, they need to stay healthy and free from injury. 6 more weeks of fully loaded programs to prepare for Nationals, which falls at the peak of the periodisation process, then it is off to the World Championships for the selected, while the others can relax a little and prepare for shows and next season.

Watching the men, again noticing most of them are of the compact body type (is this equavelent to 'boxy'), many of them being quite slim (Chen, Hanyu, etc) but with the men's triksel and quad jumps still way out of reach for almost all of the women, perhaps that comparison still falls short?

 

[fabienne1996]

You say it as if clean Alina was something that happened years ago. We have seen second clean free program this season, this time in quite difficult situation, that speaks loudly, maybe even more loudly than in the situation when everything goes smoothly, because you see strength of her will and character. As for SP, yes, yesterday she missed the combo, that also was the only big probel. What happened with scoring in France now looks even more ridiculous than before. And, BTW Alina again showed that in those times she is the only skater without quads or 3A, who can still repeatedly score above 150 in free program. Apart from her only Zhenya has the same potential (of active ladies). others need quads or triple axels to get reguralry over this limit. Yes, I am optimistic about her now, it is not something unexpected or too hard for her to be clean in both programs and in the finals even those I've mentioned have to count with her as a real medal contender.

As I've said yesterday, Alina probably needs some impulse, challenge, skating too relaxed in serious competition does not work well for her. Today she had the chance to see that if clean she won't be out of the medal positions and that can motivate her. The best way someone expressed Alina's attitude were the commentators on NBC during worlds, "before today Alina skated not to lose, today she skated to win."

Why do you want to lay words into my mouth that I did not mean in anyway? No I did not say clean as if it was years ago that she was clean, but in both gps she was not fully clean this season. So we haven't seen her score in any of the 2 gp events which she would get if both programs are clean.thtas all I was saying

 

[laybackrelaxspinfast]

I get all the enthusiasm for Alena right now, but in the longer term beyond this season, I still put my money on Sasha and Anna.

Why? Body type. Whereas Anna and Sasha are svelte (or, in Sasha's case, athletic and toned), Alena is boxy. Tiny, yes, but boxy.

That's not an issue now, but as her hips begin to widen, there's a good chance of her becoming bottom heavy; the closest analogy for this might be Samodurova's body development over the past year, and we're all seeing how this has impacted Sofia's skating and jumps. Actually, now that I think about it, Lipnitskaya's body development might serve as an even better analogy for Kostornaia.

I get that this might not be a popular opinion - and it's far from a sure thing, as body development can be unpredictable - but, again, if I were betting long-term on any of them at this point in time, say for Beijing 2022, I'd be putting my money down on Sasha and Anna over Alena for this very reason.

Actually I think this is way off the mark. She’s not as thin as the other two, exactly, that’s why her 3A works and it will also mean she has to adapt less. She jumps from her legs and doesn’t force it as much with her upper body like the other two, this is due to the fundamentals of her jumps being taught at a different skating school. I think Anna is a lost cause if she grows at all, the amount of upper body support she uses for that ‘quad’ lutz is insane. I thought Evgenia’s jumps were heavily upper body assisted before the switch but Anna’s are something else. I can’t comment on what will happen with Trusova because she is just straight up muscle but height could throw her off, or it could provide more height to her jumps, who knows. The tall muscular girls do have the most beautiful height on their jumps.

 

[flanker]

It might be even more sad if they all skate clean. Then you'll see massive scores and amazing performances. And you'll know the top 6 really all deserve to go but only half of them can. And if they're all clean, it'll likely be they'll have very close scores. Last season, I think scoring between top 3 was less than a point difference. Can you imagine missing out on the world team by less than a point? I think it's unlikely anyway, none of the Russian ladies have had a totally clean competition this season; no edge call no URs.

I agree. Just imagine all top six ladies skating clean, the scores would be from the realm of dreams and practically untouchable by any other lady in the world except Rika. But three of them will be still unlucky at the end. I can imagine Ted's enthusiasm for watching RusNats, but apart from top performances there will be some sadness.

 

[DougDorsey]

Valid posting, but like you said, it is hard to predict what these young skaters will grow into, either by body or by mind. First of all, they need to stay healthy and free from injury. 6 more weeks of fully loaded programs to prepare for Nationals, which falls at the peak of the periodisation process, then it is off to the World Championships for the selected, while the others can relax a little and prepare for shows and next season.

Hard to predict perfectly, yes, but different body types do tend to follow certain patterns. (Especially once a girl is midway through puberty, you have a pretty good sense of her classification, so to speak.)

Just to be clear, I'm speaking of beyond this season. In the nearer term, e.g. GPF and Russian Nats and Worlds, I'm inclined at this point to put my money on Alena over Sasha and Anna. I'm just saying that, given her body type and the inevitability of further maturation, we might be seeing Alena's peak right now this season. But, if so, what a delightful peak it is.

 

[Edwin]

Hard to predict perfectly, yes, but different body types do tend to follow certain patterns. (Especially once a girl is midway through puberty, you have a pretty good sense of her classification, so to speak.)

Just to be clear, I'm speaking of beyond this season. In the nearer term, e.g. GPF and Russian Nats and Worlds, I'm inclined at this point to put my money on Alena over Sasha and Anna. I'm just saying that, given her body type and the inevitability of further maturation, we might be seeing Alena's peak right now this season. But, if so, what a delightful peak it is.

No doubt. #TeamTurberidzeForProgress know about this too, and Sambo-70's medical team most likely will keep a tight check on all the skaters during their growth and maturing phases. For me, the Tutberidze Effect should not only focus on development of the skaters to reach their maximum potential, but also in postponing their 'obsolecense' .... and that still remains to be seen, putting short term interest over mid-term interests, let alone long term interest in Russian state funded figure skating. All good intentions aside, the amount of ice, time and money isn't unlimited.

 

[DougDorsey]

Actually I think this is way off the mark. She’s not as thin as the other two, exactly, that’s why her 3A works and it will also mean she has to adapt less. She jumps from her legs and doesn’t force it as much with her upper body like the other two, this is due to the fundamentals of her jumps being taught at a different skating school. I think Anna is a lost cause if she grows at all, the amount of upper body support she uses for that ‘quad’ lutz is insane. I thought Evgenia’s jumps were heavily upper body assisted before the switch but Anna’s are something else. I can’t comment on what will happen with Trusova because she is just straight up muscle but height could throw her off, or it could provide more height to her jumps, who knows. The tall muscular girls do have the most beautiful height on their jumps.

If Anna continues to have her mom's body type, she's got nothing to worry about, haha...https://www.instagram.com/p/Bz_IzACISoW.

I agree on the shortcomings of her technique, though. I don't think it's owing to a lack of strength. If you ever see her up close, she's a lot more athletically built than initially meets the eye. Maybe not as much so as Sasha, but not too far off. It probably has more to do with the fact that she's been with Eteri the longest, and never learned proper technique early on as Alena did.

It's for that reason that of the three of them, I'd most like to see Anya leave Eteri. Nothing against Eteri, but I think great skaters benefit from having multiple instructors over the course of their careers, and Anna's never really had that.

 

[Edwin]

It's for that reason that of the three of them, I'd most like to see Anya leave Eteri. Nothing against Eteri, but I think great skaters benefit from having multiple instructors over the course of their careers, and Anna's never really had that.

Where could she go? Abroad to some commercial rink? Perhaps after 2022 Olympics? Personally, for skaters of Anna's age and background, I rank those commercial rinks lower than Khrustalniy because they are not interested in long term development of a skater. You rent a temporary spot there to get your job done, without any security or guarantee. Khrustalniy offers the total package and are quite successful at the moment in proving their approach to the advancement and progress in figure skating.

Would Anna's parents sent her abroad? Perhaps when Anna is 18, but not earlier.