2020–21 Canadian Figure Skating

[Colonel Green]

I love Gabby, but I think international judges might not treat her like at nationals. With a similar SP, I don't see her qualifying for the LP.

I mean, none of the short programs skated at Challenge would be sure to qualify for the free skate (with the obvious caveat that the standard at this year's Worlds, assuming it happens, is probably going to be lower than last time). So I don't think that really tells you anything; anybody we send we'll be hoping they skate better than they did at Challenge.

Canada has an especially big dilemma about which Man they should send to the Olympics.

Olympic qualification hasn't happened yet, so it remains to be seen if there'll be only one. So save that dilemma for another day.

I hope they send Roman. The three best men are are roughly equivalent with the jumps... about the same content and about the same consistency. I think Roman and Keegan are the most authentic in their skating.

I disagree on that score. Roman has one less triple Axel than the other two, he still has issues with combinations, and has never skated a totally clean short program as a senior (even at Challenge he had a UR).

Due to this year being what it is we don't have a ton of new information to go on, but I would send Keegan at this point. He probably still has the highest scoring potential, he delivers in the short program reasonably frequently, and based on the limited evidence from this season he seems to have put last year's free skate difficulties behind him.

 

[Blades of Passion]

It might be smartest (pending a virtual skate-off) to send Nam to Worlds for the highest chance of 2 spots...and then say goodbye to him next year and send Keegan and Roman to the Olympics since that's the best SP + LP pairing.

 

[HeadBanger]

There really aren't any easy answers as to who to send.

For the Men, I think Messing has the highest likelihood of a top 10 performance... but he doesn't have the top end potential of the other two, and being older the experience would likely be better gained by one of the other two. And while I'd say their likelihood of a top 10 is lower, I'd say it's not significantly so. Ultimately, I could be convinced of any of the three, but would probably give Roman the nod based on last years nationals and the Challenge, followed by Nam. As I'd put a premium on getting a younger guy with higher scoring potential some more experience heading into 2022 and the Team competition.

For the ladies. Daleman probably has the highest likelihood of a good performance and the highest scoring potential if she's in a good place. The flip side would be long term that experience would benefit a younger skater more... and I have a hard time seeing Canada getting two spots for 2022 regardless of who we send, so perhaps getting the other ladies experience should take precedent and not risk Daleman getting put through the ringer unnecessarily.

So, I guess I've talked myself into Roman, Madeline and Alison assuming everyone is healthy and has the necessary scores. Then let everyone fight it out next year for Beijing, hopefully with a relatively normal training and competition season leading into it.

 

[Colonel Green]

For the Men, I think Messing has the highest likelihood of a top 10 performance... but he doesn't have the top end potential of the other two, and being older the experience would likely be better gained by one of the other two. And while I'd say their likelihood of a top 10 is lower, I'd say it's not significantly so. Ultimately, I could be convinced of any of the three, but would probably give Roman the nod based on last years nationals and the Challenge, followed by Nam. As I'd put a premium on getting a younger guy with higher scoring potential some more experience heading into 2022 and the Team competition.

What makes you say the other two have higher scoring potential? Keegan gets much better GOE than Nam and has a higher BV than Roman.

For the ladies. Daleman probably has the highest likelihood of a good performance

Highest likelihood of a good performance would be Madeline, surely, who has had a strong run of appearances post-2020 nationals. Gabrielle hasn’t had a genuinely good skate since 2019 Worlds.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Yeah, Keegan has the highest scoring potential of them all because of his speed, big jumps, and also very good presentation. However he's never skated a perfect LP, usually he makes several mistakes in the LP, so that potential is not realistic. Roman has the most realistic high scoring potential overall because he's shown the ability to deliver a nearly flawless LP and has amazing spins and probably the best artistry. His showing at 4CC last season is cause for concern about his ability to deliver under the highest pressure situations though. Nam has shown the most consistency the past couple seasons; he never bombs. If the field at Worlds is going to have some competitors missing and the rule about needing to place top 10 for multiple Olympic spots remains, then he might be the safest bet. I'm confused though why Keegan didn't participate in the recent Canadian competition since it was virtual; he had momentum after his Skate America showing. There really needs to be another virtual skate-off to help decide who goes to Worlds.

 

[rollerblade]

It might be smartest (pending a virtual skate-off) to send Nam to Worlds for the highest chance of 2 spots...and then say goodbye to him next year and send Keegan and Roman to the Olympics since that's the best SP + LP pairing.

You seem very fixated on Team event for some reason.

 

[Colonel Green]

Yeah, Keegan has the highest scoring potential of them all because of his speed, big jumps, and also very good presentation. However he's never skated a perfect LP, usually he makes several mistakes in the LP, so that potential is not realistic. Roman has the most realistic high scoring potential overall because he's shown the ability to deliver a nearly flawless LP and has amazing spins and probably the best artistry.

Keegan skated an essentially perfect free at 2019 Four Continents (won the small bronze there; would/should have won the overall bronze if not for the lenient tech calling on Vincent in the short program), and he's had others with only minor errors (particularly at 2018 Nebelhorn and 2019 WTT, in both cases the only mistake was tripling his second quad attempt, and in both cases he just did a 3T-3T, and at 2019 Skate America, where the only real problem was mucking up the final flip). His best free skates are better than what Roman has done to date.

Keegan wasn't able to do a clean free skate in the 2019-20 season, seemingly due to his well-known family troubles, but at least if Skate America is evidence, it seems he's through that.

Also, his biggest problem historically was that backloaded second quad that has almost never worked, but he has stopped backloading it, which I expect will improve consistency.

I'm confused though why Keegan didn't participate in the recent Canadian competition since it was virtual

Reportedly due to videography issues.

 

[mrrice]

Keegan skated an essentially perfect free at 2019 Four Continents (won the small bronze there; would/should have won the overall bronze if not for the lenient tech calling on Vincent in the short program), and he's had others with only minor errors (particularly at 2018 Nebelhorn and 2019 WTT, in both cases the only mistake was tripling his second quad attempt, and in both cases he just did a 3T-3T, and at 2019 Skate America, where the only real problem was mucking up the final flip). His best free skates are better than what Roman has done to date.

Keegan wasn't able to do a clean free skate in the 2019-20 season, seemingly due to his well-known family troubles, but at least if Skate America is evidence, it seems he's through that.

Also, his biggest problem historically was that backloaded second quad that has almost never worked, but he has stopped backloading it, which I expect will improve consistency.

Reportedly due to videography issues.

I thought they all skated in the same rink. Did the skaters just send videos in at this event? I'm confused......

 

[Colonel Green]

I thought they all skated in the same rink. Did the skaters just send videos in at this event? I'm confused......

Challenge was recorded at hub locations across Canada and then judged on video six weeks later.

 

[mrrice]

Challenge was recorded at hub locations across Canada and then judged on video six weeks later.

Thank You Colonel Green.......

 

[Blades of Passion]

You seem very fixated on Team event for some reason.

They all should be. It's an Olympic medal. Canada likely has no real chance of a medal in any individual discipline, and they will need to scrape together as many points as possible in the Team event if they want a medal there. This is what matters more than anything.

Keegan skated an essentially perfect free at 2019 Four Continents (won the small bronze there; would/should have won the overall bronze if not for the lenient tech calling on Vincent in the short program), and he's had others with only minor errors (particularly at 2018 Nebelhorn and 2019 WTT, in both cases the only mistake was tripling his second quad attempt, and in both cases he just did a 3T-3T, and at 2019 Skate America, where the only real problem was mucking up the final flip). His best free skates are better than what Roman has done to date.

Keegan had multiple scratchy landings, no 3-jump combo, and no 3F at 2019 4CC. It was a very good job but points are points and he left many on the table. Also that 2020 Skate America example you use (I think you meant 2020, his 2019 showing was very flawed), he had a poorly executed 3-jump combo that lost a lot of points, it wasn't just the big mistake on the 3F in that performance. The other examples you cite have similar issues of no 3-jump combo and no 3F.

I think you're right that Keegan's best LP is still better than Roman's best in competition so far, but Keegan has been around a long time and always had these issues in the LP of leaving points on the table. Roman is newer to the scene and has shown improvement; this season has unfortunately cut down what we've been able to see from him. If he skates his LP as it seems he is capable of, then it would surpass anything Keegan has done.

 

[Colonel Green]

Keegan had multiple scratchy landings, no 3-jump combo, and no 3F at 2019 4CC. It was a very good job but points are points and he left many on the table. Also that 2020 Skate America example you use (I think you meant 2020, his 2019 showing was very flawed), he had a poorly executed 3-jump combo that lost a lot of points, it wasn't just the big mistake on the 3F in that performance. The other examples you cite have similar issues of no 3-jump combo and no 3F.

Not having an extra double toe or a triple flip in his layout isn't not being clean; he executed his planned content.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Not having an extra double toe or a triple flip in his layout isn't not being clean; he executed his planned content.

I never talked about "clean", rather points. It's irrelevant if someone skates "clean" if they are leaving content out in comparison to others or not having the kind of landings that bring the +GOE. Not having a +1Lo+3Sal combo and a 3F in the program drops his potential score by over 4 points. Or even with just a +2Lo added in what he was doing, which is what he planned before this season, that's still 2 extra points. Those things can't be ignored. He has factually never "executed his planned content" in a LP. Combined with his typical inconsistency in the LP, I would not want to use him for a Team LP, at this moment.

Although the funny (unfortunate?) thing is, Canada seems likely to finish dead last in the Men's LP of the Team competition anyway. So it really is almost totally about who can do the best and most reliable SP, if Canada can only send 1 guy and wants to maximize their chance at an Olympic medal.

 

[4everchan]

Keegan's 3F often gets an edge call...he might as well not use that jump...

 

[Roo87]

ISU released updated rules for Worlds qualifying scores, scores achieved in 2018/19 season are now valid. Gabby now has her minimums, so now Skate Canada must make the tough decision.

 

[haribobo]

Canadians with World mins (age eligible and currently competing)

Ladies- Schizas, Schumacher, Daleman, Mallet, Bausback, Pineault (taking season off)

Men- Sadovsky, Nguyen, Messing, Nadeau, Orzel, Toman, Phan, Gogolev, Rakic

Pairs- MTM, Walsh/Michaud, Matte/Ferland, Ruest/Wolfe

Dance (excluding juniors)- FB/S, Gilles/Poirier, Lajoie/Lagha, Soucisse/Firus, Fabbri/Ayer, Lanaghan/Razgulajevs, Sales/Wamsteeker

 

[Colonel Green]

It's official, IAM is now in the franchising business, as they have an Ontario campus with Scott Moir as head coach (the staff also includes most of Scott's family).

Commence with the predictions about who should move here.

 

[SnowWhite]

At Challenge, in Junior dance there was Iannetta/Carr with Scott and Carol Moir listed as coach/choreographer. And Hensen/Lickers had Scott and Alma Moir listed. So I expect those two teams are part of IAM Ontario.

 

[Colonel Green]

I've seen a lot of speculation that Carreira/Ponomarenko are going to be here part of the time (since they can't train internationally full-time due to Christina's citizenship needs), which would, if nothing else, explain the lack of an immediate announcement of an alternative coach. But I'm still skeptical about teams deliberately seeking multi-country coaching arrangements at this particular moment in time.

If Makita/Gunara are contemplating continuing into seniors, I feel they might want to consider a move here, because I don't think Wing & Lowe are ever going to have the juice they need to push to the very top.

 

[4everchan]

Canadians with World mins (age eligible and currently competing)

Ladies- Schizas, Schumacher, Daleman, Mallet, Bausback, Pineault (taking season off)

Men- Sadovsky, Nguyen, Messing, Nadeau, Orzel, Toman, Phan, Gogolev, Rakic

Pairs- MTM, Walsh/Michaud, Matte/Ferland, Ruest/Wolfe

Dance (excluding juniors)- FB/S, Gilles/Poirier, Lajoie/Lagha, Soucisse/Firus, Fabbri/Ayer, Lanaghan/Razgulajevs, Sales/Wamsteeker

thanks for doing this ; Ruest-Wolfe are also out for the season I believe. Which makes it 3 teams for 2 spots for worlds... MTM gets a spot obviously... I am curious about W/M : are they back in shape? They had to withdraw from Challenge...