2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[Bluediamonds09]

After seeing Alysa and Lindsay this weekend, I think they are the top2 ladies in the US at this point. Still kills me that we haven't seen Bradie but, Karen did not help her cause at Skate Canada. With Isabeau being too young, and Mariah still being a question mark, I guess it will be between Bradie and Amber for that final spot.

Even though I don't see Lindsay as ready for prime time (I foresee low pcs bcuz her skating is very methodical and cautious and well, spark-less, despite the talent) I respect your opinion. Perhaps it's better to send lindsay for experience, instead of relying on karen or mariah who struggle with 3-3s. Who knows?

 

[mrrice]

Even though I don't see Lindsay as ready for prime time (I foresee low pcs bcuz her skating is very methodical and cautious and well, spark-less, despite the talent) I respect your opinion. Perhaps it's better to send lindsay for experience, instead of relying on karen or mariah who struggle with 3-3s. Who knows?

This last section is why I worry about Karen and Mariah. As we saw this weekend, there is simply no way for a Lady to Medal without at least Three solid 3/3's in their arsenal. Alysa's 3A has not been successful this year and she is the TOP US Lady. All of the Russian Ladies have Multiple 3/3 combinations and I don't see Karen or Mariah as "Viable" threats to break through and Medal. Alysa had a big test this weekend and I think, Had she gone clean, she would have held on for 4th. We'll see how things develop as the season progresses. Lindsay may need work on PCS but, her Technical Content is where it needs to be to make the team. We'll see how she holds up at Nationals but, she passed a big test this weekend.

 

[noskates]

I think everyone's comments here about Alysa are to the point. We have to remember she's only 16. And pretty advanced for that I think. Karen is an enigma. She puts together a good skate every now and then and in between is disappointing. I honestly don't see her as competitive on an international level and she may have challenges at Nationals. I still want to see Mariah's freeskate.

 

[yelyoh]

I think everyone's comments here about Alysa are to the point. We have to remember she's only 16. And pretty advanced for that I think. Karen is an enigma. She puts together a good skate every now and then and in between is disappointing. I honestly don't see her as competitive on an international level and she may have challenges at Nationals. I still want to see Mariah's freeskate.

Mariah is using Hallelujah again for her free. If she can approximate what she did two years ago she has a chance.

 

[mrrice]

Mariah is using Hallelujah again for her free. If she can approximate what she did two years ago she has a chance.

If.. is the operative word here. IF Bradie can skate the way she did at last years Nationals, she'll beat Mariah IF they both skate clean programs. To see Karen place as low as she did is a shock since she was the Top Us Lady at Worlds. For me, there are still too many unanswered questions at this point in the season.

 

[dancelion21]

Mariah, Amber, and Karen all need to show consistency to get on the Olympic team. Karen has already kinda shown herself to be inconsistent, with two disasters at Autumn Classic and Skate Canada, but an exceptional skate at Finlandia. As a result, her current median score (which is how USFS is determining 'consistency'), is 183.41. Amber actually has a higher current median since she only has two international events which would count (Finlandia and Skate America), and the median of those two events is 192.24. Mariah can actually reasonably get a significantly higher median if she scores over 200 at both of her grand prix events. 2019-20 Mariah Bell would have had no problem doing that, so it's just a question of if Mariah can be the cleanest version of herself to put herself in contention for the Olympic spot.

Edit: I miscalculated Karen's median since 2021 Worlds does count towards that consistency factor, while I had only counted her competition scores from the 2021-22 season. As such, Karen's median is actually 192.95, so Amber and Karen are basically in identical positions in USFS' eyes in terms of consistency. Right now, the ladies look like this.

Group 2: Alysa (top 3 ability)
Group 3: Karen (top 5 ability)
Group 4: Amber (top 10 ability), Bradie (top 10 ability), Lindsay (top 10 ability)

Amber can reasonably move up to group 3 with a performance scoring higher than 193.44 at her next Grand Prix event, thus showing consistent top 10. Mariah can also probably reasonably show consistent top ten performances. Lindsay's more difficult to compare since most of her consistency scores come from the Junior Grand Prix circuit, where ladies score lower as they're missing a character sequence and are required to do certain jumps in the short program. I'm sure that the committee will take that into account though, and she's likely to move up into Group 3 as well. So by US nationals, the groups will likely look like this. Bradie would thus really need to place in the top 3 at US Nationals so that she can move into Group 3 as well and give the US Committee a headache for which two ladies to send to the Olympics alongside Alysa.

Group 2: Alysa
Group 3: Karen, Amber, Mariah, Lindsay
Group 4: Bradie

 

[yelyoh]

If.. is the operative word here. IF Bradie can skate the way she did at last years Nationals, she'll beat Mariah IF they both skate clean programs. To see Karen place as low as she did is a shock since she was the Top Us Lady at Worlds. For me, there are still too many unanswered questions at this point in the season.

Yes the men's side is more concrete. Re ladies ITA.

 

[Amei]

If.. is the operative word here. IF Bradie can skate the way she did at last years Nationals, she'll beat Mariah IF they both skate clean programs. To see Karen place as low as she did is a shock since she was the Top Us Lady at Worlds. For me, there are still too many unanswered questions at this point in the season.

Based on her competition history, its not that surprising - she's never won a GP medal and hasn't won a Challenger event medal since the 2017-2018 season . She's had a few good competitions (SP and FS), but in general she's a inconsistent competitor with an under-rotation habit, unlike Mariah and Amber she's managed to do very well at a very right time like last year at Worlds which makes her look better. PCS-wise yesterday she still did very well, but PCS can't help 2 falls and a +Rep very much


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Chen#Competitive_highlights

 

[katymay]

Alysa will be top 10 in the Olympics. My feeling it doesn't matter who the other two are that we send. They are all about at the same level, each with positives and negatives, all of them probably in the 8th to 13th area in the World Depth chart. (This year) Therefore, why not send two who have not been to the Olympics? Mariah and Amber, perhaps Lindsay. Even with reduced BV, I would put Amber at the top of the list. Then the third spot between Mariah and Lindsay, or perhaps Gabby Izzo.

 

[Amei]

Alysa will be top 10 in the Olympics. My feeling it doesn't matter who the other two are that we send. They are all about at the same level, each with positives and negatives, all of them probably in the 8th to 13th area in the World Depth chart. (This year) Therefore, why not send two who have not been to the Olympics? Mariah and Amber, perhaps Lindsay. Even with reduced BV, I would put Amber at the top of the list. Then the third spot between Mariah and Lindsay, or perhaps Gabby Izzo.

This is why I would prefer they go off the results at Nationals, top 3 age-eligible skaters goes to Nationals.

 

[yelyoh]

Alysa will be top 10 in the Olympics. My feeling it doesn't matter who the other two are that we send. They are all about at the same level, each with positives and negatives, all of them probably in the 8th to 13th area in the World Depth chart. (This year) Therefore, why not send two who have not been to the Olympics? Mariah and Amber, perhaps Lindsay. Even with reduced BV, I would put Amber at the top of the list. Then the third spot between Mariah and Lindsay, or perhaps Gabby Izzo.

Honestly I have entertained the same thought. Karen though she earned the US the third spot (right?) has been to the Olys and is not having a great year so far. Bradie has also been to the Olys and is a question mark. Mariah and Amber have me a little more in their corner. But if Lindsay does much better at Nats let her have a spot. I'm glad I'm not a US judge.

 

[Apple1078]

Very impressed with Alysa's confidence... I just watched her SkCan gala performance that included a flawless 3Lz3T combo under the lights. I don't think we'll see Karen or Mariah attempt that (and I love Karen and Mariah).

 

[skatingiscool]

Event Totals for the leading Women in Int'l competition this season so far.

Skating Scores: Latest Figure Skating Results, Scores, Rankings & Statistics

The best resource for Figure Skating scores and stats on the web.

skatingscores.com

 

[skatingiscool]

If.. is the operative word here. IF Bradie can skate the way she did at last years Nationals, she'll beat Mariah IF they both skate clean programs. To see Karen place as low as she did is a shock since she was the Top Us Lady at Worlds. For me, there are still too many unanswered questions at this point in the season.

Questions will be answered real soon.

Alysa is a lock and US top#1 this season so far. If anyone can be placed ahead of her in GP/Nats, that skater will be sent to Beijing. This will be a big test for Amber in her next GP - NHK trophy. Amber doesn't need to beat any Russian or Japanese, Amber only needs to beat Alysa.

 

[mrrice]

Questions will be answered real soon.

Alysa is a lock and US top#1 this season so far. If anyone can be placed ahead of her in GP/Nats, that skater will be sent to Beijing. This will be a big test for Amber in her next GP - NHK trophy. Amber doesn't need to beat any Russian or Japanese, Amber only needs to beat Alysa.

True. I felt the same way with Karen at Skate Canada. If she had been even close to Karen it would have been great but, it was not to be.

 

[RatedPG]

I’m just catching up on US Ladies Figure Skating. So, in order to make it to Nationals, you have byes for Senior Ladies competing in the Grand Prix Circuit. Therefore, Liu, Chen, Glenn, Bell (still to compete), Shin, and Andrews. If Tennell doesn’t compete, does she still get a spot as defending champion? I’m going to assume Yes. So, that is 7 spots. Then, there is a rule for the Juniors if they make it to the GP Finals, then, they get a spot. So, that puts Levito and Thorngren. So, 9 spots taken. USFA has decided on a Championship Series where there are 8 events and athletes are able to compete twice with the highest scores qualifying to Nationals. So, top 9 scores make it to nationals. After the last event (4/8), Gracie Gold’s score has placed her in 7th place. If she scored one point higher, she could have placed in 5th spot. All she needed to do is add a 2T to one of her 2A’s. Looking at the list of athletes behind her, Ryberg and Vennetta look to pass her with their next event. This means Gold has to compete a second time to secure a spot to Nationals. It is becoming interesting.

 

[ice coverage]

... USFA has decided on a Championship Series where there are 8 events and athletes are able to compete twice with the highest scores qualifying to Nationals. So, top 9 scores make it to nationals. After the last event (4/8), Gracie Gold’s score has placed her in 7th place. If she scored one point higher, she could have placed in 5th spot. All she needed to do is add a 2T to one of her 2A’s. Looking at the list of athletes behind her, Ryberg and Vennetta look to pass her with their next event. This means Gold has to compete a second time to secure a spot to Nationals. It is becoming interesting.

For Senior Women without byes to Nats, the nine who will advance from Championship Series are those who have:

- The top two (2) total combined scores from each section;
- The next best top three (3) scores from the nation.​

Plus they must have scores that meet the tech minimums for SP and FS.

As you said, four more Championship Series events are coming up.
At the moment -- although things could change -- Gracie is in position to earn the ninth of the nine Nats spots available from Championship Series. Not the seventh, because those with the top two scores from each section are guaranteed to advance to Nats. As things stand now, Gracie would have needed to score higher by over six points to be ahead of Rena Ikenishi, who currently is in position to earn the eighth spot. In the current standings for Eastern section, Rena and Gracie are fourth and fifth, respectively.
(I am not trying to count Gracie out, but hypothetically: If/if/if only one additional woman from Eastern section were to surpass Gracie by the end of the Series, it would be sufficient to prevent Gracie from qualifying for Nats. I am not saying that it would be likely to happen.)

ETA:

FWIW, as things stand now, it would be possible for Rydberg to move up to top two from Midwestern section without beating Gracie's current score. Same for Venetta and Pacific section.
I wish Paige and Sierra well. I'm sure they both are aiming for as high a score as possible. (I'm not suggesting that anyone wants to squeak by and just barely qualify for Nats.)​

 

[moonvine]

Alysa will be top 10 in the Olympics. My feeling it doesn't matter who the other two are that we send. They are all about at the same level, each with positives and negatives, all of them probably in the 8th to 13th area in the World Depth chart. (This year) Therefore, why not send two who have not been to the Olympics? Mariah and Amber, perhaps Lindsay. Even with reduced BV, I would put Amber at the top of the list. Then the third spot between Mariah and Lindsay, or perhaps Gabby Izzo.

For better or for worse, that’s not the way the US Fed has stated they’re doing it.

 

[moonvine]

For Senior Women without byes to Nats, the nine who will advance from Championship Series are those who have:

- The top two (2) total combined scores from each section;
- The next best top three (3) scores from the nation.​

Plus they must have scores that meet the tech minimums for SP and FS.

As you said, four more Championship Series events are coming up.
At the moment -- although things obviously could change -- Gracie is in position to earn the ninth of the nine Nats spots available from Championship Series. Not the seventh, because those with the top two scores from each section are guaranteed to advance to Nats. As things stand now, Gracie would have needed to score higher by over six points to be ahead of Rena Ikenishi, who currently is in position to earn the eighth spot. In the current standings for Eastern section, Rena and Gracie are fourth and fifth, respectively.
(I am not trying to count Gracie out, but hypothetically: If/if/if only one additional woman from Eastern section were to surpass Gracie by the end of the Series, it would be sufficient to prevent Gracie from qualifying for Nats. I am not saying that it is likely to happen.)

Thank you for not counting her out.

She does have another competition in Alpharetta coming up. Without a fall and two pops plus the freak fall in the short I expect she would have scored 6 points higher. The falls alone would be 2 points.

The US Fed obviously wants me to develop a bleeding ulcer over this because it’s not just how she does, it’s how every other senior lady does. I want to thank you for keeping up with it all.

 

[RatedPG]

For Senior Women without byes to Nats, the nine who will advance from Championship Series are those who have:

- The top two (2) total combined scores from each section;​

- The next best top three (3) scores from the nation.​

Plus they must have scores that meet the tech minimums for SP and FS.

As you said, four more Championship Series events are coming up.
At the moment -- although things could change -- Gracie is in position to earn the ninth of the nine Nats spots available from Championship Series. Not the seventh, because those with the top two scores from each section are guaranteed to advance to Nats. As things stand now, Gracie would have needed to score higher by over six points to be ahead of Rena Ikenishi, who currently is in position to earn the eighth spot. In the current standings for Eastern section, Rena and Gracie are fourth and fifth, respectively.
(I am not trying to count Gracie out, but hypothetically: If/if/if only one additional woman from Eastern section were to surpass Gracie by the end of the Series, it would be sufficient to prevent Gracie from qualifying for Nats. I am not saying that it would be likely to happen.)

ETA:​

FWIW, as things stand now, it would be possible for Rydberg to move up to top two from Midwestern section without beating Gracie's current score. Same for Venetta and Pacific section.​

I wish Paige and Sierra well. I'm sure they both are aiming for as high a score as possible. (I'm not suggesting that anyone wants to squeak by and just barely qualify for Nats.)​

Thanks for the explanation.