2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[Amei]

Oh it was one of the US National comps - she WD from the free. @mrrice if you have Peacock it’ll be on there.

Here you go:

 

[skatingiscool]

Well, Alysa bested You by about thirty points at Cranberry. All of these ladies have 225 potential; it depends on who skates well.

100% Agreed. If Alysa skates like her practice/warm up, she can hit 230 easily. Jonathan (this and that program) watched Skate Canada live, he mentions that Alysa lands 3A just fine in practice/warm up. In fact, I'm pretty sure all the girls have some nerves and do better in practice. That's why I always say it's pointless to compare somebody's "practice" to other's real competition" performance.

 

[readernick]

You conveniently left out how Alysa PB 219 is higher than what all have them have scored this year. None of them have passed that as of yet.

That PB was at Lombardia which I mentioned at the time ( and time has proven what I said to be correct) is overscored. As I said before my beloved Shoma always gets PBs at Lombardia and never gets similar scores the rest of the year. With a better performance at SC, Alysa only got 206 points. On the other hand, Daria, Young's and Kaori's PBs come from SA another GP event which was scored more conservatively.

I'm not anti-Alysa and I think she is a better competitor ( although not better skater) than Kaori, Young, and Daria who all tend to make mistakes. She also has far better programs than any of the others. Kaori and Daria's programs are terrible. Young's are just ok. So, she definitely has a chance to win gold but it isn't even close to guaranteed.

I think it will come down to how tough the technical panel is and if Alysa lands her 3A.... I think a tough technical panel probably benefits Kaori because her issue is pops not URs. Young URs just as much ( if not more) than Alysa. They both get edge calls on flips sometimes. Daria and Kaori have flutzes and Daria can be messy in the FS. If the technical panel is lax ( as it was in GP Italy) then Alysa and Young have more of an opportunity to win since their BVs are higher.Tough technical calling benefits Kaori and Daria to a certain degree.

I give Alysa a 20 percent chance of winning. The same I give to Young and Daria. I think Kaori has about a 25 percent chance because she always scores her highest and skates her best in Japan and JF loves her. Also, she scored well at SA with two huge errors a pop and a messed up spin. The pop may happen again but I don't see her missing her spin again. 15 percent chance that someone else wins... Most likely dark horse being Rino who has the Yuma Kagiyama like SS and is working on a 3A and, thus, could pull an upset here if the others make mistakes....

So, that is why I say that Alysa has a chance of winning but is not "likely" to do so.

I would put her chances of being on the podium much higher likely 60 percent because she is so unflappable in competition.

 

[readernick]

[/QUOTE]
If you ever see

100% Agreed. If Alysa skates like her practice/warm up, she can hit 230 easily. Jonathan (this and that program) watched Skate Canada live, he mentions that Alysa lands 3A just fine in practice/warm up. In fact, I'm pretty sure all the girls have some nerves and do better in practice. That's why I always say it's pointless to compare somebody's "practice" to other's real competition" performance.

Alysa is not better in practice than in competition. I've seen her practice. She wasn't impressive. She is the type of skater who turns it on in the competition. It is a great quality so I'm not sure why you are arguing against the reality... Anna S. Is this type of skater, too. Alena used to be. Shoma often falls on everything in practice and does much better in competition.

It is foolish to pretend that all skaters are better in practice than in competition. It is frankly not true. Those with nerves of steel are very fortunate.

 

[skatingiscool]

If you ever see
Alysa is not better in practice than in competition. I've seen her practice. She wasn't impressive. She is the type of skater who turns it on in competition. It is a great quality so I'm not sure why you are arguing against the reality... Anna S. Is this type of skater, too. Alena used to be. Shoma often falls on everything in practice and does much better in competition.

It is foolish to pretend that all skaters are better in practice than competition. It is frankly not true. Those with nerves of steal are very fortunate.
[/QUOTE]

When did you see Alysa live last time? Did you go to Skate Canada? It's foolish for you by assuming the skater skates the same way with no improvement at all. You just simply refuse to accept the fact that Alysa is a complete different skater now. You still think she skates like a junior that you watched her "years" ago. If you're not Alysa hater, I don't believe it. Now, stop argument and move on.

Who has watched Skate Canada live? Jonathan. For others, here is non emotional and unbiased view of Alysa at Skate Canada. Don't listen to Alysa hater.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

 

[readernick]

I've seen Alysa's practices this year via Peacock streaming. I saw her practices at Lombardia. Her 3As in practice were less rotated than those in competition. Her 3-3s in the second half were also not fully rotated in practice but looked better in competition. Didn't see her practices at SC so maybe her 3A was more rotated in practice but it isn't the norm for her to be better in practice. Friends who have seen her live this year all agree that Alysa is better in competition than in practice. Turning it on like that in competition is a huge gift! I'm not an Alysa hater. I admire her greatly. She is such a fighter, but in case you have noticed I'm very realistic about all skaters positive and negative qualities. I really dislike blind bias that some people display due to personal preferences or nationalism.

There is no doubt that she had improved so much. I've complimented her on this many many times. Honestly, probably one of the few skaters who have made such improvement in a short time. Her edges and her speed have caught up to others. It is truly amazing. However, improvement and being better in practice than competition aren't the same thing. Again, being a better practice skater is not a good thing. Most people who win are like Alysa. Why try to pretend Alysa doesn't possess this wonderful quality? It's a gift!

Not going to watch TSL, sorry. I'm all for honest assessment of skaters but those guys are rude and gossip all the time. Not my kind of entertainment. You do you.

 

[dancelion21]

Alysa's strong competition spirit is what makes her the top US lady, and keeps her competitive with international skaters. No matter what happens in a program, she holds herself together. I hope that Alysa goes for slightly different jump content this week at NHK than she did at Skate Canada. Her very unorthodox combinations in the second half didn't pay off, as many of the jumps were called underrotated. It may be better to stick to what she was doing earlier in the season, with the 2A+Eu+3S in the first half and 3Lz+3T and 3F+2T in the second half, or to just have a 3Lz+Eu+3S and 3Lz+3T in the second half. The underrotations were what really cost her at Skate Canada, and it was obvious that Alysa really had to fight for her combinations in the second half of the program, thus impacting the GOE as well.

 

[dancelion21]

I'm very concerned about the fact that we haven't seen Mariah at all this season besides Cranberry and that one Championship Series. She's been on a downward trajectory ever since the start of last season, when it finally looked like she would get the chance to be the top US lady, but then she faltered badly at US Nationals, and from her early season showings, it doesn't look like she's really recovered from that. Mariah doesn't have the tech content that Alysa, Amber, or Lindsay have, and her PCS isn't as high as Karen's, so the main thing that would get her on the Olympic team is to channel the consistency she had in the 2019-20 season. If she can show consistency at her next two Grand Prixs and possibly Golden Spin, then she will put herself in real contention for the Olympic spots. I feel as though Mariah can perhaps get consistent, since she once was, while Amber and Karen have been inconsistent their whole careers.

 

[Amei]

I'm very concerned about the fact that we haven't seen Mariah at all this season besides Cranberry and that one Championship Series. If she can show consistency at her next two Grand Prixs and possibly Golden Spin, then she will put herself in real contention for the Olympic spots. I feel as though Mariah can perhaps get consistent, since she once was, while Amber and Karen have been inconsistent their whole careers.

Well unless she gets injured I think she's in contention for the team because no one outside of Alysa has done anything to really set themselves apart too much. Mariah had to change her programs after the ill-reception from Cranberry and her GP events aren't until the very last 2 so she doesn't have to be ready till later in the season. Maybe with all of the pandemic stuff she's decided to not travel to the smaller comps.

I'm very concerned about the fact that we haven't seen Mariah at all this season besides Cranberry and that one Championship Series. She's been on a downward trajectory ever since the start of last season, when it finally looked like she would get the chance to be the top US lady, but then she faltered badly at US Nationals, and from her early season showings, it doesn't look like she's really recovered from that. Mariah doesn't have the tech content that Alysa, Amber, or Lindsay have, and her PCS isn't as high as Karen's, so the main thing that would get her on the Olympic team is to channel the consistency she had in the 2019-20 season. If she can show consistency at her next two Grand Prixs and possibly Golden Spin, then she will put herself in real contention for the Olympic spots. I feel as though Mariah can perhaps get consistent, since she once was, while Amber and Karen have been inconsistent their whole careers.

Actually based on nationals and Skate America last year, Mariah and Karen have pretty much the same PCS, even with Mariah's FS disaster last year at Nationals, Karen only had a little over 1 point in PCS over her.

 

[Jammers]

Alysa just winning a medal at NHK would be a big win for her but i can see people are already setting her up to be a disappointment if she doesn't win. She won't be the favorite even with Rika and Sasha withdrawing but everyone seems to think she should win.

 

[frida80]

That PB was at Lombardia which I mentioned at the time ( and time has proven what I said to be correct) is overscored. As I said before my beloved Shoma always gets PBs at Lombardia and never gets similar scores the rest of the year. With a better performance at SC, Alysa only got 206 points. On the other hand, Daria, Young's and Kaori's PBs come from SA another GP event which was scored more conservatively.

I'm not anti-Alysa and I think she is a better competitor ( although not better skater) than Kaori, Young, and Daria who all tend to make mistakes. She also has far better programs than any of the others. Kaori and Daria's programs are terrible. Young's are just ok. So, she definitely has a chance to win gold but it isn't even close to guaranteed.

I think it will come down to how tough the technical panel is and if Alysa lands her 3A.... I think a tough technical panel probably benefits Kaori because her issue is pops not URs. Young URs just as much ( if not more) than Alysa. They both get edge calls on flips sometimes. Daria and Kaori have flutzes and Daria can be messy in the FS. If the technical panel is lax ( as it was in GP Italy) then Alysa and Young have more of an opportunity to win since their BVs are higher.Tough technical calling benefits Kaori and Daria to a certain degree.

I give Alysa a 20 percent chance of winning. The same I give to Young and Daria. I think Kaori has about a 25 percent chance because she always scores her highest and skates her best in Japan and JF loves her. Also, she scored well at SA with two huge errors a pop and a messed up spin. The pop may happen again but I don't see her missing her spin again. 15 percent chance that someone else wins... Most likely dark horse being Rino who has the Yuma Kagiyama like SS and is working on a 3A and, thus, could pull an upset here if the others make mistakes....

So, that is why I say that Alysa has a chance of winning but is not "likely" to do so.

I would put her chances of being in the podium much higher likely 60 percent because she is so unflappable in competition.

Alyss didn’t give a better performance strong SC. She was worse than Lombardia. She fell and downgraded her 3A plus the poorly executed 3Lz+Eu+3F cost her positive grade of execution on both jumps, base vale points and a negative GOE.

she lost 1.18 and 1.48 GOE on both her flip and lutz. She lost 1.08 BV on her flip. She lost 3.98 points by down grading and falling on her 3A, plus another 1 point deduction. Finally she lost another .67 on her 3 jump combo and .53 on her +SEQ. That equals 9.92 points lost of TES alone. Naturally the PCS scores fall with major errors.

By my estimate she could’ve scored even higher if she stuck with the same layout than trying to upgrade.

 

[dancelion21]

Well unless she gets injured I think she's in contention for the team because no one outside of Alysa has done anything to really set themselves apart too much. Mariah had to change her programs after the ill-reception from Cranberry and her GP events aren't until the very last 2 so she doesn't have to be ready till later in the season. Maybe with all of the pandemic stuff she's decided to not travel to the smaller comps.

This is true, and I fully agree with this.

Actually based on nationals and Skate America last year, Mariah and Karen have pretty much the same PCS, even with Mariah's FS disaster last year at Nationals, Karen only had a little over 1 point in PCS over her.

Internationally, I feel as though Karen now will score slightly better than Mariah. It's been a while since Mariah competed internationally, but Karen's always be the darling of international judges for her big jumps and effortless spins. Domestically, US judges have always loved Mariah, also why she was pushed so heavily at the start of last season. We'll know pretty soon at IdF next week once Mariah and Karen compete against each other.

 

[Lzbee]

Alysa just winning a medal at NHK would be a big win for her but i can see people are already setting her up to be a disappointment if she doesn't win. She won't be the favorite even with Rika and Sasha withdrawing but everyone seems to think she should win.

Yeah, Alysa's a strange case. In this thread, people are speculating that she will win. But when I go elsewhere, people don't even consider her a medal threat.

Tbh, I think it's more in between where she's an equal contender with everyone else for any medal.

If the tech calling is as strict as Skate Canada then I think she should just go for broke and do the 4Lz. If not, she might get away with two 3As.

Unfortunately, it's unlikely she'll make GPF even with a win here as she will need to win a tie break too. She's currently about 10 points behind the contenders for that. A score of 230+ would give her a decent chance though.

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

I've seen Alysa's practices this year via Peacock streaming.

I am sure you are an expert on whether Alysa practices well or not based on the 11.82 minutes of video you watched on your computer via peacock.

 

[katymay]

Remember that those "official" practices are just for show, and for blocking the programs (for media and tech services) Most of the skaters are utilizing another rink for their "real" practices.
Alysa's real ace in the hole is her ability to thrive on the competition aspect. She just doesn't suffer the nerves that most skaters suffer. She also has the confidence of being well trained, you can tell that she had done run throughs of the program a thousand times, she has the highest level of stamina, conditioning and ability to fall back on muscle memory.
As far as Mariah vs. Karen, Mariah's short program is 'nice', the music is lovely, but for me there is very little impact. Karen is smart enough to showcase her axel with huge speed going in, Mariah's axel, out of the steps, is now small and unimpressive. If Karen does a solo 3L to start, and saves her combo for the end, Mariah will be much lower than Karen on the tech score, even if Karen's combo is UR'd or Q'd. Spins are equal, no advantage to either of them. (Both have wonderful spins). Neither is impressive on the StepSeq, but slight advantage to Karen.

 

[skatingiscool]

I am sure you are an expert on whether Alysa practices well or not based on the 11.82 minutes of video you watched on your computer via peacock.

Computer via peacock vs watching "live".....what a joke. I'm so glad that we have unbiased, non-emotional, professional analysis from Jonathan (this and that program) about Alysa on youtube. Those garbage comments about Alysa from Alysa "HATER", just for "entertainment" purpose. Those haters are stubborn and their mind always stick with Alysa's old Junior performance - She skates slow, she skates like a junior, her edges are not deep, jump is small(or bad)....blah blah blah.

 

[skatingiscool]

Yeah, Alysa's a strange case. In this thread, people are speculating that she will win. But when I go elsewhere, people don't even consider her a medal threat.

Tbh, I think it's more in between where she's an equal contender with everyone else for any medal.

If the tech calling is as strict as Skate Canada then I think she should just go for broke and do the 4Lz. If not, she might get away with two 3As.

Unfortunately, it's unlikely she'll make GPF even with a win here as she will need to win a tie break too. She's currently about 10 points behind the contenders for that. A score of 230+ would give her a decent chance though.

Actually, I expect Alysa is in this range (bronze - 5th place) at GP. I don't expect she will win gold. For US women, bronze is a HUUUGE accomplishment. I don't expect Alysa is in GPF which is not a bad thing. Nathan won GPF in last Olympics , the tremendous pressure caused his meltdown in last Olympics. Mariah won gold at Skate America but she couldn't pull it off at Nats last time. Let Alysa being an "underdog" at Olympics. I hope USFSA/Media stop from hyping about her and giving her so much pressure.

 

[readernick]

Remember that those "official" practices are just for show, and for blocking the programs (for media and tech services) Most of the skaters are utilizing another rink for their "real" practices.
Alysa's real ace in the hole is her ability to thrive on the competition aspect. She just doesn't suffer the nerves that most skaters suffer. She also has the confidence of being well trained, you can tell that she had done run throughs of the program a thousand times, she has the highest level of stamina, conditioning and ability to fall back on muscle memory.

No doubt this is all true. Alysa is a great hard worker. And, I haven't seen Alysa live this year so I can't say if she suddenly became a better practice skater than competition skater at SC. Although, I do have a friend who attended who told me that the 3A looked the same in and out of program. My opinion is from seeing her live in the past and her 3A attempt at Lombardia which was far better than any I saw from her in practice. The same was true when she was a young skater. She would fall in practice but would get in done in competition( Who would want to be a skater who never delivers up to potential in competition? Skaters who are better in practice and never fulfill their potential are just depressing to themselves and their fans which is why I'm so confused by the weird anger that the suggestion that Alysa is better in competition than practice is causing to a few of less than rational members of this forum) It's a great thing if you can go out and perform without letting the nerves overtake you. It's Alysa's greatest gift. Lindsay's, too. Amber, Mariah, Karen and a whole generation of US women's skaters would have willingly given up a number of their positive qualities for that skill.

Anyway, I agree with you. I think Karen vs Mariah is pretty much a wash. Neither is particularly good at 3-3s and both are seen by the judges as " artistic."

Wish Bradie was healthy. Then, an Alysa, Lindsay, Bradie team would be a very steady contingent to send to the Olympics. As it is, we will have to see how is the rest of the season goes. Hopefully, Mariah, Amber, and Karen all continue to improve.

 

[readernick]

[

Computer via peacock vs watching "live".....what a joke. I'm so glad that we have unbiased, non-emotional, professional analysis from Jonathan (this and that program) about Alysa on youtube. Those garbage comments about Alysa from Alysa "HATER", just for "entertainment" purpose. Those haters are stubborn and their mind always stick with Alysa's old Junior performance - She skates slow, she skates like a junior, her edges are not deep, jump is small(or bad)....blah blah blah.

To this I can just say ok.. but please work on your reading comprehension because I didn't say those things about Alysa and I don't like people ascribing things to me that I never said. Alysa is an amazing skater with strengths and weaknesses like any other.

By the way, I had real friends who attended SC why would I listen to the opinion of man who has made sexists, racist, and horrible comments about skaters? Whose sidekick joked about sexual abuse that was occurring in Russia? I'm not going to give such a person any views on YouTube. If he has good things to say about Alysa now, great. But, watch out because tomorrow they will say terrible things if she falters.

 

[Sjs5572]

Yeah, Alysa's a strange case. In this thread, people are speculating that she will win. But when I go elsewhere, people don't even consider her a medal threat.

Tbh, I think it's more in between where she's an equal contender with everyone else for any medal.

If the tech calling is as strict as Skate Canada then I think she should just go for broke and do the 4Lz. If not, she might get away with two 3As.

Unfortunately, it's unlikely she'll make GPF even with a win here as she will need to win a tie break too. She's currently about 10 points behind the contenders for that. A score of 230+ would give her a decent chance though.

The total score tiebreak should not come into play. Alysa's 22 points would beat any others with 22 points by virtue of her 1st place finish.