2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating
- Thread starter Minz
- Start date
- Status
- Joined
- Nov 13, 2020
Since we’ve been taking about the US ladies‘ scores/content, I added a USA vs the World to the introduction post on the thread. It shows the top scores of the US ladies this season and the top scores of some of their main rivals this season. I only used international competitions, but even though the GP’s were considered domestic, I had to use them because most of the skaters only did GP’s and I didn’t want to use national scoring because that is way to inflated
While there are some limitations to this, and it may not perfecly reflect upon the skater up to date, I think it works well enough because of the varience and craziness that can happen with the judging system.
I’ll add a few juniors soon. I will use national championship scoring for some and some domestic competitions for others. I’ll make it what I think is the most accurate representation of the skater.
(PS: It took way too long)
While there are some limitations to this, and it may not perfecly reflect upon the skater up to date, I think it works well enough because of the varience and craziness that can happen with the judging system.
I’ll add a few juniors soon. I will use national championship scoring for some and some domestic competitions for others. I’ll make it what I think is the most accurate representation of the skater.
(PS: It took way too long)
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2021
I think USFS should invest in Amber, Audrey, Lindsey now, and Kanon, Isabeau, and Mia for 2026. Mia has already attempted a quad toe that was under (?) and Amber has a 3A and was consistent last season compared to before; we need to build up that moment for the next season. Audrey is working on the 3A and 4T, fingers crossed she'll get it before the GP starts.
No I don't. She just serves as a good argument for the weak us ladies field. Gracie don't seem to really try hardest. She is more doing it as a job, for the liking of skating,needs money,which is totally fine, we all have jobs
- Joined
- Nov 13, 2012
No. Competing on the JGP in the same discipline makes you ineligible for the SGP and vice versa. But there are also challenger events and other senior b's to compete at to get experience!
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2011
after all Gracie has been through and overcome, this is incredibly insulting.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
Honestly, I'm much more impressed by skaters who can do clean 3 triple SPs and 7 triple LPs because that is what wins big events. The 3A or a quad will get you nowhere unless you can land all the easier jumps. Maybe Amber can continue to show consistency with the other jumps and add the 3A next season, but the others need to show that they can execute a competitive layout consistently to justify any additional investment or push from the federation.
Ah a new thread. Maybe its time for me to write dow some thoughts that have been rattling in my head since worlds.
The Olympic season is very complicated. Team USA, USFS, NBC and a lot fo sponsors rely a lot on the popularity of ladies figure skating and this year will be no different. Over the last few cycles I began to realize their is an implicit criteria along with their explicit one they give to skaters at the beginning of the season.These are the priority.
1. Put a skater on that has the best chance at a medal, even it’s a just off chance.
2. Chose the two ladies that have the highest scored SP and FS program respectively. The scores must be consistent and given by an international panel.
3. Chose younger skaters that show great potential for the future.
4. Chose someone that the NBC Olympics can create an audience appealing narrative.
In 2018, I figured the team would be between Ashley, Karen, Mirai, and Mariah. However, I was obsessed with the team competition. I was always doing the numbers and redoing them. What I realized early, was that Mirai had a pretty strong FS even if she didn’t hit the 3A. Looking at Japan Open, she had a strong score for the FS. But after SC, I was concerned. None of the top ladies had a strong SP. Both Karen and Ashley were making huge errors and hovering around 60, which could drop USA down in points if others were having a good day. However, there was one wildcard that I never put on my list, but I kept my eyes on. That was Bradie.
The prior year, Bradie didnt’ have a strong season. She did get a bronze at Tallinn, albet with a modest score of 168. She was ninth at nationals and was seventh at JW with a score of 161. However, it was clear in the off season, she was going to make USFS give her a chance.
I noticed in May that Bradie had won a summer competition with a much improved score of 188. Which wasn’t far from what the highest US ladies were scoring. She won a few more times both times with high scores, indicating that she was not only consistent but clearly competitive. When I finally saw her at Philly International, she was a changed skater. Consistent, focused, and very determined. I knew after she won there, she was getting the SA spot. A few weeks later, USFS confirmed my prediction.
I wondered how she’d be scored at an non domestic competition. At Lombardia, she score a strong 4th with a high score of 196, one the highest score of all US ladies that fall. Her SP score was 64. Also higher than other US ladies that season. As the GP moved on, and none of the top four ladies had strong SP, I began to wonder if they would chose her for the team. I was reluctant to predict her on the team. So when USFS published their early list for Golden Spin and put both Bradie and Karen on it, I knew they were mulling between putting Bradie, who was skating strong, or Karen, who was very inconsistent. My expectation was that Ashley would do well in SA and make the team. Unfortunately, her injury changed a lot.
Skate America was the turning point. I knew if Bradie nailed two strong clean programs, she would convince USFS to give her a chance. She exceeded my expectations. She cracked the 200 mark, at 204, something US ladies rarely do. That’s when I predicted she would win national, simply because it was clear she had momentum.
Bradie’s surprise commanding season was an eye opener for me. That the Olympic spots were no means fixed, but with a determined mind, consistency and the strong tech, it’s anyone’s game. However, it’s not just about a strong national’s performance. Her international scores were crucial for getting that momentum before nationals. If not, she may have be left off the team.
Now that I’ve given some backstory, I’m going to try to analyze just how each skater would fare with these implicit and explicit rules.
Stay turned for part two.
The Olympic season is very complicated. Team USA, USFS, NBC and a lot fo sponsors rely a lot on the popularity of ladies figure skating and this year will be no different. Over the last few cycles I began to realize their is an implicit criteria along with their explicit one they give to skaters at the beginning of the season.These are the priority.
1. Put a skater on that has the best chance at a medal, even it’s a just off chance.
2. Chose the two ladies that have the highest scored SP and FS program respectively. The scores must be consistent and given by an international panel.
3. Chose younger skaters that show great potential for the future.
4. Chose someone that the NBC Olympics can create an audience appealing narrative.
In 2018, I figured the team would be between Ashley, Karen, Mirai, and Mariah. However, I was obsessed with the team competition. I was always doing the numbers and redoing them. What I realized early, was that Mirai had a pretty strong FS even if she didn’t hit the 3A. Looking at Japan Open, she had a strong score for the FS. But after SC, I was concerned. None of the top ladies had a strong SP. Both Karen and Ashley were making huge errors and hovering around 60, which could drop USA down in points if others were having a good day. However, there was one wildcard that I never put on my list, but I kept my eyes on. That was Bradie.
The prior year, Bradie didnt’ have a strong season. She did get a bronze at Tallinn, albet with a modest score of 168. She was ninth at nationals and was seventh at JW with a score of 161. However, it was clear in the off season, she was going to make USFS give her a chance.
I noticed in May that Bradie had won a summer competition with a much improved score of 188. Which wasn’t far from what the highest US ladies were scoring. She won a few more times both times with high scores, indicating that she was not only consistent but clearly competitive. When I finally saw her at Philly International, she was a changed skater. Consistent, focused, and very determined. I knew after she won there, she was getting the SA spot. A few weeks later, USFS confirmed my prediction.
I wondered how she’d be scored at an non domestic competition. At Lombardia, she score a strong 4th with a high score of 196, one the highest score of all US ladies that fall. Her SP score was 64. Also higher than other US ladies that season. As the GP moved on, and none of the top four ladies had strong SP, I began to wonder if they would chose her for the team. I was reluctant to predict her on the team. So when USFS published their early list for Golden Spin and put both Bradie and Karen on it, I knew they were mulling between putting Bradie, who was skating strong, or Karen, who was very inconsistent. My expectation was that Ashley would do well in SA and make the team. Unfortunately, her injury changed a lot.
Skate America was the turning point. I knew if Bradie nailed two strong clean programs, she would convince USFS to give her a chance. She exceeded my expectations. She cracked the 200 mark, at 204, something US ladies rarely do. That’s when I predicted she would win national, simply because it was clear she had momentum.
Bradie’s surprise commanding season was an eye opener for me. That the Olympic spots were no means fixed, but with a determined mind, consistency and the strong tech, it’s anyone’s game. However, it’s not just about a strong national’s performance. Her international scores were crucial for getting that momentum before nationals. If not, she may have be left off the team.
Now that I’ve given some backstory, I’m going to try to analyze just how each skater would fare with these implicit and explicit rules.
Stay turned for part two.
- Joined
- Aug 12, 2014
@frida80
No lie. In the first few minutes of Bradie's first practice at SA, I said, "Bradie came here to skate."
Sigh. What could have been. It would have made such a difference for Ashley and for USA women's skating, if she'd been awarded the PCS that she deserved at nationals, and the Fed had shown the faith that Ashley would come through ... as she had already done for 6 straight years. Fresh off a 2018 Olympics experience, so that she would have been ending her career with a whole different feeling, she'd likely have come in 7th at Worlds (if not better), so 6 + 7= 13.
From 2012 to 2017 Ashley came in at Worlds: 4th, 5th, 7th, 5th, 2nd & 7th.
It was a no-brainer.
^^^ Waiting with bated breath.
No lie. In the first few minutes of Bradie's first practice at SA, I said, "Bradie came here to skate."
Sigh. What could have been. It would have made such a difference for Ashley and for USA women's skating, if she'd been awarded the PCS that she deserved at nationals, and the Fed had shown the faith that Ashley would come through ... as she had already done for 6 straight years. Fresh off a 2018 Olympics experience, so that she would have been ending her career with a whole different feeling, she'd likely have come in 7th at Worlds (if not better), so 6 + 7= 13.
From 2012 to 2017 Ashley came in at Worlds: 4th, 5th, 7th, 5th, 2nd & 7th.
It was a no-brainer.
@skylark Ashley not making the team is a huge, maybe three part blog series that will be sure to set off some debates. I’ll probably make eventually, but I want to focus on the 2022 team.
Part 2.
Let’s go back to the implicit criteria I just gave:
1. Put a skater on that has the best chance at a medal, even it’s a just off chance.
2. Chose the two ladies that have the highest scored SP and FS program respectively. The scores must be consistent and given by an international panel.
3. Chose younger skaters that show great potential for the future.
4. Chose someone that the NBC Olympics can create an audience appealing narrative.
There is two more that I didn’t mention.
5. The US Olympic team is not for a swan song. (This is critical.)
6. To show that US figure skating at least has the technical goods to be competitive in the future.
The truth is everything is going to come down to this fall. In a normal year, certain skaters would be clear front runners for the team. This year has been so crazy. Covid didn’t just eliminate nearly all international competitions, but also affected the training and practice conditions of several skaters. It’s hard to judge how a skater, especially in lock down conditions would do. So everything that happens during this fall will be looked at with a magnifying glass. Scratch the body of work, it’s pretty much anyone’s age but they have to have very strong fall results to solidify their spot. However, there are at least 5 or 6 people USFS probably already has their eye on. I’m name them from their national’s placement.
1. Bradie Tennel
Bradie has been the anchor of the US team this quad. She’s medal each GP season, made it to the GP final, won a medal at 4CC, and has never been of the podium at nationals. She has some weaknesses, most glaringly her underrotations on her 3Lz+3T combo, however when she’s focused and determined she can out score most all non-Russian skaters. She currently has the highest FS and total scores of any US lady in IJS history, 225 at WTT.
I would say that Bradie’s place on the team is solid, however that’s not the case. Bradie is very consistent, but the results at worlds and WTT may have made some of the TPTB in USFS nervous. I think she can make the case a lot easier by removing her second 3Lz+3T combo. It’s extremely inconsistent and frequently called. Her 2A+3T was much more consistent. Having an easier combo would make it easier to focus on her first combo and then relax into the program. However, a consistent 3A would make her tentative spot put in ink. Although, that is an unlikely outcome.
My status: Very Likely
2. Amber Glenn
Amber has truly come around this quad. She’s found a new fire and it’s showing up in competition. In the beginning of the quad, she have strong SP with disasterous FS. A true nervous skater that gets overwhelmed at pressure and struggles to keep her focus. Ironically, my one of favorite type of skaters. It’s been a step by step process for her. However, getting the 3A has clearly made her more confident. She had a strong FS at SA and her best ever FS at nationals. I was most impressed when she missed her second combo and improved a 2T+2Lo nabbing her some crucial points for her silver medal.
If she keeps her momentum, she can make the case for the team. However, she has to prove that her conistency is real. Her true bonus is her 3A. Remember #6 from my observed criteria? That came into play in both 2014 an 2018. In 2014 they could show off 3 ladies with triple triple combinations, and position themselves for the future. In 2018, Mirai’s rare 3A also showed US ladies technical talent. With Russia, Japan, and Korea sending ladies with 3A and quads, having ladies on the team that have these jumps is extremely important. USFS and USOC want to send the message that US is at least keeping up. That’s why I think she has a very good shot at the time provided that
A. She is very consistent during the season (no FS meltdowns.)
B. Starts lading her 3A consistently.
C. Manages to medal at a GP.
All three of these would solidify her place on the team.
My Status: Good, but wait and see.
Karen Chen
Let’s be clear. USFS owes Karen Chen a huge debt of gratitude. They took a gamble on her at worlds. Her results for this quad hae been weak. She had to overcome an injury and going to college. Since she’s been back, she been improving every competition. She actually better than in her 2016-2017 season. Her jumps are more stable, less underrotations, and she’s grown in confidence. However, what she did at worlds was simply amazing. She put down two near clean programs and unlike WTT 2017, didn’t meltdown a few weeks later.
Karen now has the benefit of not having being inexperienced and having so much pressure on her shoulders as she did the last quad. So she’s not second guessing herself as much and is much more focused and determined than before. Judges clearly love her. If she takes her momentum from worlds and translates it into more strong programs, her PCS and GOE will also grow potentially getting into the high 140s for her FS. She is training a 3A, but like Bradie, I think it is unlikely. Her real threat is how the rest of the US ladies do. Without a 3A her spot on the team isn’t secure at all.
Much like Amber she needs to:
1. Show consistency at her competitions
2. Medal at a GP
3. Get the highest SP or FS score
My status: Good, but wait and see.
Stay tuned for the next three in part three!
Part 2.
Let’s go back to the implicit criteria I just gave:
1. Put a skater on that has the best chance at a medal, even it’s a just off chance.
2. Chose the two ladies that have the highest scored SP and FS program respectively. The scores must be consistent and given by an international panel.
3. Chose younger skaters that show great potential for the future.
4. Chose someone that the NBC Olympics can create an audience appealing narrative.
There is two more that I didn’t mention.
5. The US Olympic team is not for a swan song. (This is critical.)
6. To show that US figure skating at least has the technical goods to be competitive in the future.
The truth is everything is going to come down to this fall. In a normal year, certain skaters would be clear front runners for the team. This year has been so crazy. Covid didn’t just eliminate nearly all international competitions, but also affected the training and practice conditions of several skaters. It’s hard to judge how a skater, especially in lock down conditions would do. So everything that happens during this fall will be looked at with a magnifying glass. Scratch the body of work, it’s pretty much anyone’s age but they have to have very strong fall results to solidify their spot. However, there are at least 5 or 6 people USFS probably already has their eye on. I’m name them from their national’s placement.
1. Bradie Tennel
Bradie has been the anchor of the US team this quad. She’s medal each GP season, made it to the GP final, won a medal at 4CC, and has never been of the podium at nationals. She has some weaknesses, most glaringly her underrotations on her 3Lz+3T combo, however when she’s focused and determined she can out score most all non-Russian skaters. She currently has the highest FS and total scores of any US lady in IJS history, 225 at WTT.
I would say that Bradie’s place on the team is solid, however that’s not the case. Bradie is very consistent, but the results at worlds and WTT may have made some of the TPTB in USFS nervous. I think she can make the case a lot easier by removing her second 3Lz+3T combo. It’s extremely inconsistent and frequently called. Her 2A+3T was much more consistent. Having an easier combo would make it easier to focus on her first combo and then relax into the program. However, a consistent 3A would make her tentative spot put in ink. Although, that is an unlikely outcome.
My status: Very Likely
2. Amber Glenn
Amber has truly come around this quad. She’s found a new fire and it’s showing up in competition. In the beginning of the quad, she have strong SP with disasterous FS. A true nervous skater that gets overwhelmed at pressure and struggles to keep her focus. Ironically, my one of favorite type of skaters. It’s been a step by step process for her. However, getting the 3A has clearly made her more confident. She had a strong FS at SA and her best ever FS at nationals. I was most impressed when she missed her second combo and improved a 2T+2Lo nabbing her some crucial points for her silver medal.
If she keeps her momentum, she can make the case for the team. However, she has to prove that her conistency is real. Her true bonus is her 3A. Remember #6 from my observed criteria? That came into play in both 2014 an 2018. In 2014 they could show off 3 ladies with triple triple combinations, and position themselves for the future. In 2018, Mirai’s rare 3A also showed US ladies technical talent. With Russia, Japan, and Korea sending ladies with 3A and quads, having ladies on the team that have these jumps is extremely important. USFS and USOC want to send the message that US is at least keeping up. That’s why I think she has a very good shot at the time provided that
A. She is very consistent during the season (no FS meltdowns.)
B. Starts lading her 3A consistently.
C. Manages to medal at a GP.
All three of these would solidify her place on the team.
My Status: Good, but wait and see.
Karen Chen
Let’s be clear. USFS owes Karen Chen a huge debt of gratitude. They took a gamble on her at worlds. Her results for this quad hae been weak. She had to overcome an injury and going to college. Since she’s been back, she been improving every competition. She actually better than in her 2016-2017 season. Her jumps are more stable, less underrotations, and she’s grown in confidence. However, what she did at worlds was simply amazing. She put down two near clean programs and unlike WTT 2017, didn’t meltdown a few weeks later.
Karen now has the benefit of not having being inexperienced and having so much pressure on her shoulders as she did the last quad. So she’s not second guessing herself as much and is much more focused and determined than before. Judges clearly love her. If she takes her momentum from worlds and translates it into more strong programs, her PCS and GOE will also grow potentially getting into the high 140s for her FS. She is training a 3A, but like Bradie, I think it is unlikely. Her real threat is how the rest of the US ladies do. Without a 3A her spot on the team isn’t secure at all.
Much like Amber she needs to:
1. Show consistency at her competitions
2. Medal at a GP
3. Get the highest SP or FS score
My status: Good, but wait and see.
Stay tuned for the next three in part three!
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2011
Bradie is the only one of the US ladies who is any sort of a lock. Barring implosions all season long, she's going.
Mariah has to prove herself and pull herself out of the weeds after her 5th place showing at nationals. if she shows up all season, she's going.
Amber is not going to be taken seriously unless she proves she can put it together internationally all season. USFS sent her a huge message by leaving her off the world team. I want her to and am rooting for her, but that's the reality.
USFS technically doesn't "owe" Karen anything, and even though it would be nice for her to make a 2nd Olympic team, the spot shouldn't just be gifted to her. she still needs to earn her way like everyone else.
If Alysa shows up all season consistently and beats most if not all the other US ladies in competition, she will for sure be a main contender. but she does have some proving to do her herself after the struggles last season.
Mariah has to prove herself and pull herself out of the weeds after her 5th place showing at nationals. if she shows up all season, she's going.
Amber is not going to be taken seriously unless she proves she can put it together internationally all season. USFS sent her a huge message by leaving her off the world team. I want her to and am rooting for her, but that's the reality.
USFS technically doesn't "owe" Karen anything, and even though it would be nice for her to make a 2nd Olympic team, the spot shouldn't just be gifted to her. she still needs to earn her way like everyone else.
If Alysa shows up all season consistently and beats most if not all the other US ladies in competition, she will for sure be a main contender. but she does have some proving to do her herself after the struggles last season.
Part 3!
4. Alysa Liu
Alysa is the the two time US Champ. She’s on of three US ladies to land a 3A in international competition and the only US skater to have a quad called clean in international competition. However, COVID off season caused a early growth spurt. This is very common with gymnast too. They take a extended break after the olympics and suddenly their body shoots up. My theory that all the extra calories that went to fuel all their muscles could now focus on growth. And grow she did.
Thankfully it happened last year rather than this year. Only of the few advantages that the US ladies has, is that coaches seem more adept at working with more mature bodies. I’m hoping she can train so that she can use more thrust in her jumps, so the rotations won’t be in doubt. US nationals was a good test for her. She showed that she was still capable of landing her triples, backloading combos, and still has that trademark consistency. It looks like she and Jeremy are a good team. She says she has her 3A back. If true, and it’s consistent then some solid international results will definately have her on the team.
However, there are still a lot of what ifs. Her underotations, and stamina were definately issues. Also, will international judges reward her for her improved skating skills? A lot of this is going to rely on how she is scored during the fall. If she is scored well, especially in the FS, she will definately make the team.
My status: Very good, depending on her 3A, <‘s, and scoring.
Mariah Bell
I think Mariah is very unlucky. Just after her best national’s skate ever, she loses the chance to go to worlds and her training environment changed drastically. Being in Los Angeles, meant that many times the city would enact strong restrictions to curb COVID19 numbers. That meant less ice time, little to no gym time, and sometimes nothing at all. The period before nationals was terrible. The numbers were horrid out around that time, the city had a curfew. Couple that with LA’s infamous traffic and you’ve got a mess. She wasn’t the only skater affected. Her training mate Nathan wasn’t as confident as he normally is at nationals. His jumps were a little tighter and he was a bit more scratchy on the ladies Contrast that with Nathan at worlds, now that lockdown restrictions had lifted, he delivered a much more developed FS which had clearly been touched up since nationals. My guess is that the restrictions had a big impact on the preparation and their confidence. This is why I’m confident Mariah can get back to her 2019-2020 level. However, I wonder if it’s too late.
In the first years of the Quad, Mariah only had Bradie as a rival for seniors. Now with the improvement from both Karen and Amber, as well as Alysa moving to seniors , the field has gotten a lot tighter. Her biggest threat, both Amber and Alysa landing consistent 3A as well as overall consistency. If that’s the case, they will both be chose for the team event (as their BV will make them the most competitive) and that last spot will come down to Mariah, Karen, Bradie or another unknown dark horse.
Here’s why if it comes down to her, Karen and Bradie she’s the weakest arguement of the bunch. Neither Alysa or Amber have world’s or olympic experience. So USFS would like to send veteran to help mentor the team through a high pressure comp as well as serve as a backup for the team event. Both Bradie and Karen have world and Olympic experience. Both have delivered under pressure (TE for Bradie, Worlds 2017, 2021 for Karen.) Both are national champs. Bradie has a bigger BV and a higher score. Karen’s PB score is only 4 points away from Mariah’s. Finally, there’s my observed rule 5. The Olympics is no place for a swan song. The US prefers to put on people with future potential. Which is why they put Polina on instead of Mirai in 2014. At the time, Mirai had stagnated, had low tech with several technical problems, and her logevity was in question. Polina had just made the JGPF, had triple triples, and was full of potential. To USFS, this was an investment in the future.
So the question USFS will ask what longevity does Mariah have in this sport? These are all things completely outside of her control, which is really frustrating because she’s anchored the team for the last quad. Making the team, especially without a 3A, is going to be a very tough road for her. However, if she keeps focused and skates confidently then maybe she’ll get the spot. The dice just has to roll in her favor. Which means she has to skate better than 3 of the four ladies I just listed.
My status: possible as a dark horse.
This is pretty long, so I’ll lump Audrey in with the dark horses. (Sorry Audrey!)
4. Alysa Liu
Alysa is the the two time US Champ. She’s on of three US ladies to land a 3A in international competition and the only US skater to have a quad called clean in international competition. However, COVID off season caused a early growth spurt. This is very common with gymnast too. They take a extended break after the olympics and suddenly their body shoots up. My theory that all the extra calories that went to fuel all their muscles could now focus on growth. And grow she did.
Thankfully it happened last year rather than this year. Only of the few advantages that the US ladies has, is that coaches seem more adept at working with more mature bodies. I’m hoping she can train so that she can use more thrust in her jumps, so the rotations won’t be in doubt. US nationals was a good test for her. She showed that she was still capable of landing her triples, backloading combos, and still has that trademark consistency. It looks like she and Jeremy are a good team. She says she has her 3A back. If true, and it’s consistent then some solid international results will definately have her on the team.
However, there are still a lot of what ifs. Her underotations, and stamina were definately issues. Also, will international judges reward her for her improved skating skills? A lot of this is going to rely on how she is scored during the fall. If she is scored well, especially in the FS, she will definately make the team.
My status: Very good, depending on her 3A, <‘s, and scoring.
Mariah Bell
I think Mariah is very unlucky. Just after her best national’s skate ever, she loses the chance to go to worlds and her training environment changed drastically. Being in Los Angeles, meant that many times the city would enact strong restrictions to curb COVID19 numbers. That meant less ice time, little to no gym time, and sometimes nothing at all. The period before nationals was terrible. The numbers were horrid out around that time, the city had a curfew. Couple that with LA’s infamous traffic and you’ve got a mess. She wasn’t the only skater affected. Her training mate Nathan wasn’t as confident as he normally is at nationals. His jumps were a little tighter and he was a bit more scratchy on the ladies Contrast that with Nathan at worlds, now that lockdown restrictions had lifted, he delivered a much more developed FS which had clearly been touched up since nationals. My guess is that the restrictions had a big impact on the preparation and their confidence. This is why I’m confident Mariah can get back to her 2019-2020 level. However, I wonder if it’s too late.
In the first years of the Quad, Mariah only had Bradie as a rival for seniors. Now with the improvement from both Karen and Amber, as well as Alysa moving to seniors , the field has gotten a lot tighter. Her biggest threat, both Amber and Alysa landing consistent 3A as well as overall consistency. If that’s the case, they will both be chose for the team event (as their BV will make them the most competitive) and that last spot will come down to Mariah, Karen, Bradie or another unknown dark horse.
Here’s why if it comes down to her, Karen and Bradie she’s the weakest arguement of the bunch. Neither Alysa or Amber have world’s or olympic experience. So USFS would like to send veteran to help mentor the team through a high pressure comp as well as serve as a backup for the team event. Both Bradie and Karen have world and Olympic experience. Both have delivered under pressure (TE for Bradie, Worlds 2017, 2021 for Karen.) Both are national champs. Bradie has a bigger BV and a higher score. Karen’s PB score is only 4 points away from Mariah’s. Finally, there’s my observed rule 5. The Olympics is no place for a swan song. The US prefers to put on people with future potential. Which is why they put Polina on instead of Mirai in 2014. At the time, Mirai had stagnated, had low tech with several technical problems, and her logevity was in question. Polina had just made the JGPF, had triple triples, and was full of potential. To USFS, this was an investment in the future.
So the question USFS will ask what longevity does Mariah have in this sport? These are all things completely outside of her control, which is really frustrating because she’s anchored the team for the last quad. Making the team, especially without a 3A, is going to be a very tough road for her. However, if she keeps focused and skates confidently then maybe she’ll get the spot. The dice just has to roll in her favor. Which means she has to skate better than 3 of the four ladies I just listed.
My status: possible as a dark horse.
This is pretty long, so I’ll lump Audrey in with the dark horses. (Sorry Audrey!)
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- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I also expect the team to be some combination of Bradie/Amber/Karen/Alysa/Mariah. I'm hoping the skaters who medal at Nationals also have relatively strong GP seasons so the choice is clear and we avoid a situation like the USFSA having to choose between Karen, Mariah, and Amber. I would rank their chances as follows:
1) Bradie
2) Karen
3) Amber
4) Mariah
5) Alysa
However, if Alysa regains her 3A I'd rank her near the top.
1) Bradie
2) Karen
3) Amber
4) Mariah
5) Alysa
However, if Alysa regains her 3A I'd rank her near the top.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2011
regarding investing in the future-
like you said, Polina made the team in 2014 as basically an unknown. the Olympics were her first senior international competition ever, she was still competing on the JGP that season. she was 4th at the JGP final and was never sent to Junior Worlds.
on the other hand, Alysa has already been a 2 time consecutive US senior champion and won silver at the JGPF and a bronze at Junior worlds. she has much more of a resume than Polina ever had, and Amber at this point too. she was still on the national podium this year anyway, and was less than 2 points away from Amber in 2nd.
First I love your analysis. Secondly you make a great point about Mariah and longevity. She is 25. How much longer, realistically, will she be around? It's unlikely that she'd make an Olympic team in 2026 at almost 30 years old, although I don't see her staying around for another quad anyway. Beijing would probably be her swan song which works against her.
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- Aug 12, 2014
So, do you mean you have a blog somewhere else, or are you saying each of the 3 parts will be as long as a blog post? Either way, I want to read it!
So, do you mean you have a blog somewhere else, or are you saying each of the 3 parts will be as long as a blog post? Either way, I want to read it!
I’m not sure. I’ve said for years I would make a blog and stop cluttering up all these threads with my long post. Yet, I still haven’t gotten around to it yet. Maybe this summer. We’ll see.
Part 4!
Audrey Shin finally had her moment at SA. USFS has had their eye on her for a while. They’ve sent her to international competitions since she was a novice. She’s one of those skaters that when she’s on is the full package. Graceful and connects with the music. her biggest problem before this year was her terrible underotations. It looked like she turned a corner at SA. However, nationals was completely disasterous. I’m very worry that she was injured. I’ll keep my fingers crossed, as she really shown improvement. I think USFS is still keeping her in mind as a possibility, as she was an alternate for worlds in spite of her placement at nationals. However, she has to be as good she was at SA for the fall season for her to be considered for an Olympic Spot. The good news for her is that she’s still young and USFS sees her potential for the future.
My Status: Possible Dark Horse, but need a very strong fall season for a spot.
Now lets talk about everyone else. I don’t think it matters if I analyze anyone deeply because they are all pretty much in the same boat. They have no recent successes internationally, therefore they are all wildcards unless they can prove otherwise. The good news for all of them is they still have time to prove themselves. Bradie has left the ultimate blue print on how to nail an Olympic spot, even though you have no achievements to rely on. I hope that as many ladies as possible take advantage of the summer competitions, especially the bigger ones (provided they hold them). They need to compete frequently. Show that they’ve got the tech and the consistency. If they have a quad or a 3A, land it in a club competition and create some buzz. Aim for the Nebelhorn and SA spot. Get as many international competitions as you can and fight hard. In the end of the day it will go down to who has the favor of the international judges. Are their jumps clean? How is their components score? Are they consistent? Do they have the tech neccessary to be competitive?
The Olympics brings out the ultimate competitor in many people. I expect many ladies to be fired up with new tech, jumps, and ready to fight. This is going to be an interesting year, considering there are so may ways the dice can roll. Therefore, I will be keep a very close eye on the following:
1. Summer Competition scores
These will determine the Nebelhorn and SA spot. USFS will look for a ladies with high scores that are consistent to justify giving them that spot.
2. Other competitions like Peggy Fleming and Aerial Competition.
A good way to get some visability and clout. Plus debuting a new Quad or 3A at AC would really put skaters higher on the list.
4. Philly International
I hope this is held this year, because it will give a lot of momentum to those on the podium. Both Bradie and Hanul Kim went to the Olympics. This will give a good idea of how things stand with certain skaters with international judges. However, a lot of this relies on flying in judges, which is still iffy at this juncture.
5. Nebelhorn Trophy
The lady selected sends a strong signal that that person is considered reliable enough to earn an Olympic Spot.
6. The SA spot
This will go to the person that does the best during the summer competitions.
7. Challenger Series placements.
It shows who USFS believes has earned an international competition slot this year. I’m keeping a look out for those that have scored two spots.
8. The Grand Prix spots
USFS will barter for spots for those lower on the totem poll that they think show potential. I’m curious who outside of the six I’ve listed will A. Get spots during at the first release
B. Get two spots
C. Get placed as alternates
(C. can be a false alarm, as some federations chose weaker ladies so they won’t be as competitive against their own.)
9. ISP Challenge
If they hold this again, it will be a good way to gauge how well skaters are doing, their preparation for the season, and how USFS is already ranking them. I hope they do it again, as it’s a great way for places that have few club competitions to get seen by USFS officials.
In conclusion, it’s going to be a roller coaster ride of a season. COVID restrictions will still impact people. There’s simply no way to predict how the dice will roll. Wish all our ladies luck. Their going to need it.
Audrey Shin finally had her moment at SA. USFS has had their eye on her for a while. They’ve sent her to international competitions since she was a novice. She’s one of those skaters that when she’s on is the full package. Graceful and connects with the music. her biggest problem before this year was her terrible underotations. It looked like she turned a corner at SA. However, nationals was completely disasterous. I’m very worry that she was injured. I’ll keep my fingers crossed, as she really shown improvement. I think USFS is still keeping her in mind as a possibility, as she was an alternate for worlds in spite of her placement at nationals. However, she has to be as good she was at SA for the fall season for her to be considered for an Olympic Spot. The good news for her is that she’s still young and USFS sees her potential for the future.
My Status: Possible Dark Horse, but need a very strong fall season for a spot.
Now lets talk about everyone else. I don’t think it matters if I analyze anyone deeply because they are all pretty much in the same boat. They have no recent successes internationally, therefore they are all wildcards unless they can prove otherwise. The good news for all of them is they still have time to prove themselves. Bradie has left the ultimate blue print on how to nail an Olympic spot, even though you have no achievements to rely on. I hope that as many ladies as possible take advantage of the summer competitions, especially the bigger ones (provided they hold them). They need to compete frequently. Show that they’ve got the tech and the consistency. If they have a quad or a 3A, land it in a club competition and create some buzz. Aim for the Nebelhorn and SA spot. Get as many international competitions as you can and fight hard. In the end of the day it will go down to who has the favor of the international judges. Are their jumps clean? How is their components score? Are they consistent? Do they have the tech neccessary to be competitive?
The Olympics brings out the ultimate competitor in many people. I expect many ladies to be fired up with new tech, jumps, and ready to fight. This is going to be an interesting year, considering there are so may ways the dice can roll. Therefore, I will be keep a very close eye on the following:
1. Summer Competition scores
These will determine the Nebelhorn and SA spot. USFS will look for a ladies with high scores that are consistent to justify giving them that spot.
2. Other competitions like Peggy Fleming and Aerial Competition.
A good way to get some visability and clout. Plus debuting a new Quad or 3A at AC would really put skaters higher on the list.
4. Philly International
I hope this is held this year, because it will give a lot of momentum to those on the podium. Both Bradie and Hanul Kim went to the Olympics. This will give a good idea of how things stand with certain skaters with international judges. However, a lot of this relies on flying in judges, which is still iffy at this juncture.
5. Nebelhorn Trophy
The lady selected sends a strong signal that that person is considered reliable enough to earn an Olympic Spot.
6. The SA spot
This will go to the person that does the best during the summer competitions.
7. Challenger Series placements.
It shows who USFS believes has earned an international competition slot this year. I’m keeping a look out for those that have scored two spots.
8. The Grand Prix spots
USFS will barter for spots for those lower on the totem poll that they think show potential. I’m curious who outside of the six I’ve listed will A. Get spots during at the first release
B. Get two spots
C. Get placed as alternates
(C. can be a false alarm, as some federations chose weaker ladies so they won’t be as competitive against their own.)
9. ISP Challenge
If they hold this again, it will be a good way to gauge how well skaters are doing, their preparation for the season, and how USFS is already ranking them. I hope they do it again, as it’s a great way for places that have few club competitions to get seen by USFS officials.
In conclusion, it’s going to be a roller coaster ride of a season. COVID restrictions will still impact people. There’s simply no way to predict how the dice will roll. Wish all our ladies luck. Their going to need it.
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