2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[Skatesocs]

You omitted that Hersh specified the 2020-21 season -- which of course would cause a misunderstanding of what he meant.
Hersh said (emphasis added), "Part owes to having almost no events in 2020-21 to be used in the old “body of work” rubric, which covered two years of results."

(I do think that Hersh has misremembered the previous parameters of USFS BOW -- which I do not think covered two years of results.
IIRC, the USFS documents for selection procedures for 2014 OWG and 2018 OWG listed events only going as far back as the previous year's Nats.)

The USFS document for 2022 is the first time that USFS is establishing Priority Groups and making comparisons to benchmark scores from the previous season's Worlds.
I think these new changes are what Hersh has in mind when saying "more empirical."

OK, thanks for the clarification. I didn't misunderstand him then. He is indeed saying this is somehow different when it's frankly not.

 

[Skatesocs]

Hmm I wonder why?

Ah, you edited it. Asian Open isn't a challenger event yet (you can read the discussion on the entries thread for Asian Open). Possibly, they saw that they won't get whichever perks you get out of a CS event here, and decided to move their competitors to a different event.

 

[chuckm]

The Asian competition has lost its Challenger status because both the Pairs and Ice Dance fields have so few entries. So the US skaters withdrew--it's too far to travel for what is turning out to be a Senior B.

 

[ice coverage]

OK, thanks for the clarification. I didn't misunderstand him then. He is indeed saying this is somehow different when it's frankly not.

Again: The Priority Groups and the comparison to benchmark scores from Worlds are NEW and DIFFERENT.

That type of analysis was NOT part of the published USFS selection procedures for 2014 OWG and 2018 OWG.

 

[Skatesocs]

Again: The Priority Groups and the comparison to benchmark scores from Worlds are NEW and DIFFERENT.

That type of analysis was NOT part of the published USFS selection procedures for 2014 OWG and 2018 OWG.

OK, thank you.

 

[Minz]

The Asian competition has lost its Challenger status because both the Pairs and Ice Dance fields have so few entries. So the US skaters withdrew--it's too far to travel for what is turning out to be a Senior B.

Oh no. Isn’t the Asian Open the Olympic Test Event? Do they need a test event or is it just good to have?

 

[Skatesocs]

Oh no. Isn’t the Asian Open the Olympic Test Event? Do they need a test event or is it just good to have?

It is the test event. I believe it is needed, which is why they rescheduled it to the Asian Open this season, after the GPF last season was cancelled.

Now I'm wondering if there isn't some minimum number of participants needed in a test event, with 4 Pairs and 3 Ice dance teams.

 

[mrrice]

Well, with Alysa's improvements, she should at least be on an even playing field in terms of PCS with the other Americans. Bradie and Mariah aren't PCS queens with impeccable skating skills. A clean no-3axel Alysa will beat them now. It's like the opposite effect with Kostornaia. She was winning over Anna and Sasha based on her much stronger PCS. Do you really think a three quad program from Anna will now be held down compared to Alyona? I don't. I think Alyona has lost her edge on the second mark, just like Alysa's US competitors. And 3axels won't cut it anymore, if she wants to win.

Absolutely not. What I'm saying is that "Currently" Alysa is our best hope for a medal of Any color. I know she has tried quads but, has she ever landed one in competition? With her 3A and improved PCS, I'm hoping she will be a medal threat. Isabeau and Lindsay give me confidence that our future is in good hands.

 

[Lutzedge]

Absolutely not. What I'm saying is that "Currently" Alysa is our best hope for a medal of Any color. I know has tried quads but, has she ever laned one in competition? With her 3A and improved PCS, I'm hoping she will be a medal threat. Isabeau and Lindsay give me confidence that our future is in good hands.

Alysa has landed the quad lutz at a 2019 JGP and it was scored as rotated. She has landed it this year in practice, but it was UR. But her triple axel is getting really close, and her PCS looks fabulous!

 

[Sjs5572]

Alysa has landed the quad lutz at a 2019 JGP and it was scored as rotated. She has landed it this year in practice, but it was UR. But her triple axel is getting really close, and her PCS looks fabulous!

Alysa actually landed the quad lutz at 2 jgp: Poland and Lake Placid.

 

[readernick]

Alysa actually landed the quad lutz at 2 jgp: Poland and Lake Placid.

But, honestly it was never fully rotated those were just generous calls. However, the 3A was a legitimate jump. I think if she gets it back she has a chance to be on GP podiums. She will still be a far shot for an Olympic medal, but it won't be impossible. I love her comeback and commitment to improvement.

 

[MCsAngel2]

Of high relevance to our Olympic team tea leaf reading, USFS changed their Olympic team selection criteria this year.

Per Phil Hersh, they are "more empirical" than previous years' criteria, and "put more emphasis on medal possibilities." Seems like they are deemphasizing body of work.

USFS will pay attention to scores from 2021 Worlds, 2021-22 GPs, 2021-22 Challenger Series, and JGP; USFS also told Hersh that it will consider scores from Senior Bs like Cranberry.

Based on these criteria, Alysa is even more of a lock than we thought, Bradie's spot is more tenuous than it would've been under old criteria, and Lindsay's chances are looking better and better.

Edit: here are the selection procedures

And Mariah's chances just plummeted.

 

[Amei]

Alysa has landed the quad lutz at a 2019 JGP and it was scored as rotated. She has landed it this year in practice, but it was UR. But her triple axel is getting really close, and her PCS looks fabulous!

Alysa has thrown both the quad lutz and triple axel in competitions 2 seasons ago however they were generally sloppy where she didn't get really that much of a score boost from the jumps; for perspective at the Junior GPF she had both jumps multiple times and she barely beat Usacheva; at Worlds yet again she had those jumps multiple times and she lost to Usacheva. And Usacheva did not have a quad or triple axel. Her PCS should help her, she's clearly the #1 US senior lady so the US Fed is going to politick hard for her.

 

[readernick]

In terms of non-nationals results, after reading the selection criteria it seems like what USFS is going to do is take the median scores of all international competitions and compare them to scores at Worlds in 2021 to see if that would place the skater top 3, top 5 or top 10.
At this point, the only skater who has posted a score this season that would put them in the top 10 is Alysa. Bradie is the only skater who has ever gotten a score internationally that would put them in the top 3. ( But, that was before injury). Karen's placement at Worlds also works in her favor but she will need to consistently get similar scores to have a huge advantage. Basically, anyone who wants to be in the mix for consideration based on body of work needs to be like Alysa and consistently score over 200 in their competitions. I don't think this selection criteria rules anyone out but it does , certainly, make Alysa even stronger.

 

[Amei]

Well, with Alysa's improvements, she should at least be on an even playing field in terms of PCS with the other Americans. Bradie and Mariah aren't PCS queens with impeccable skating skills. A clean no-3axel Alysa will beat them now. It's like the opposite effect with Kostornaia. She was winning over Anna and Sasha based on her much stronger PCS. Do you really think a three quad program from Anna will now be held down compared to Alyona? I don't. I think Alyona has lost her edge on the second mark, just like Alysa's US competitors. And 3axels won't cut it anymore, if she wants to win.

Alysa's US competitors have lost the PCS advantage because they aren't competitive to medal, Alysa based on her Junior season and probably limited practices that the Fed has seen has far more promise to potentially medal against the Russians.

Well, with Alysa's improvements, she should at least be on an even playing field in terms of PCS with the other Americans. Bradie and Mariah aren't PCS queens with impeccable skating skills. A clean no-3axel Alysa will beat them now. It's like the opposite effect with Kostornaia. She was winning over Anna and Sasha based on her much stronger PCS. Do you really think a three quad program from Anna will now be held down compared to Alyona? I don't. I think Alyona has lost her edge on the second mark, just like Alysa's US competitors. And 3axels won't cut it anymore, if she wants to win.

Regarding Kostornaia/Shcherbakova - I don't think Shcherbakova would even have to push 3 quads to surpass Kostornaia for PCS. I looked at the 2019 GPF vs. 2021 Worlds - Kostornaia at the GPF in the SP/FS got 35.97/73.27 for PCS; Shcherbakova at Worlds got 37.14/72.85 PCS.

 

[Sjs5572]

Alysa has thrown both the quad lutz and triple axel in competitions 2 seasons ago however they were generally sloppy where she didn't get really that much of a score boost from the jumps; for perspective at the Junior GPF she had both jumps multiple times and she barely beat Usacheva; at Worlds yet again she had those jumps multiple times and she lost to Usacheva. And Usacheva did not have a quad or triple axel. Her PCS should help her, she's clearly the #1 US senior lady so the US Fed is going to politick hard for her.

Her jumps were not clean at World's; that's why she lost to Usacheva.

 

[Amei]

Her jumps were not clean at World's; that's why she lost to Usacheva.

I didn't say they were clean, in fact I pointed out at the beginning of my post that they were generally sloppy.

 

[Sjs5572]

I didn't say they were clean, in fact I pointed out at the beginning of my post that they were generally sloppy.

Her jumps were generally not "sloppy" in the 19-20 season, however, at Worlds she fell on underrotated 4Lz and underrotated both 3 axels. Despite this, Usacheva only outscored her by less than three points.

This was likely the beginning of Alysa's growth spurt. Eighteen months later, Alysa is five inches taller and her retooled 3 axel is bigger and potentially better.

 

[skatingiscool]

I'm sure some of you have seen it before but I post it anyway. Alysa is the only one met Criteria #2 for Group 2. Her Lombardia score is higher than Sasha score at Worlds 21. Honestly, I don't think any US ladies can meet Criteria #2 for Group 1 at all. In fact, it's likely that Alysa is the only US lady can meet Group 2 selection criteria (perhaps Bradie too?). As long as Alysa is placed in top 5 at 2022 nationals (almost certainly), Alysa is a lock for Olympics team. I hope she continues her consistency at GP and nationals. Alysa is very pleasant to watch especially her smiles and joy on ice.

U.S. FIGURE SKATING
ATHLETE SELECTION PROCEDURES
2022 OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES (amended July 20, 2021) - 35 page document:
https://www.usfigureskating.org/sit... Olympic Games Selection Procedures FINAL.pdf

Key selection criteria:

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds OR consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds

 

[alexocfp]

Well, luckily one of the selection criteria isn’t that you have to clearly explain the selection criteria. Otherwise, no American (or anyone on earth for that matter) would be eligible to represent Team USA.

The USFS lawyers might have had a slow day so they decided to spend more time on this document than necessary to get to 35 pages. I guess they get paid by the hour.

A lot of words used when they could have just said: when the time comes, we will meet in secret and pick 3 skaters.

1 sentence. Guess that’s why I could never be a lawyer.