2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[Lutzedge]

Her jumps were generally not "sloppy" in the 19-20 season, however, at Worlds she fell on underrotated 4Lz and underrotated both 3 axels. Despite this, Usacheva only outscored her by less than three points.

This was likely the beginning of Alysa's growth spurt. Eighteen months later, Alysa is five inches taller and her retooled 3 axel is bigger and potentially better.

Good point. I actually haven't thought of how Junior Worlds could have been the beginning of her growth spurt. Because Alysa tends to land her jumps consistently, even at big events. And at Junior Worlds, not only did she not rotate, but she also fell. It also might take her a bit of time to rotate more consistently, as she was going through her growth spurt last season.

 

[Dogo]

I'm sure some of you have seen it before but I post it anyway. Alysa is the only one met Criteria #2 for Group 2. Her Lombardia score is higher than Sasha score at Worlds 21. Honestly, I don't think any US ladies can meet Criteria #2 for Group 1 at all. In fact, it's likely that Alysa is the only US lady can meet Group 2 selection criteria (perhaps Bradie too?). As long as Alysa is placed in top 5 at 2022 nationals (almost certainly), Alysa is a lock for Olympics team. I hope she continues her consistency at GP and nationals. Alysa is very pleasant to watch especially her smiles and joy on ice.

U.S. FIGURE SKATING
ATHLETE SELECTION PROCEDURES
2022 OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES (amended July 20, 2021) - 35 page document:
https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022 Winter Olympic Games Selection Procedures FINAL.pdf

Key selection criteria:

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds OR consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds

Thanks for doing this. I always appreciate good charts

 

[SnowWhite]

Well, luckily one of the selection criteria isn’t that you have to clearly explain the selection criteria. Otherwise, no American (or anyone on earth for that matter) would be eligible to represent Team USA.

The USFS lawyers might have had a slow day do they decided to spend more time on this document than necessary to get to 35 pages. I guess they get paid by the hour.

A lot of words used when they could have just said: when the time comes, we will meet in secret and pick 3 skaters.

1 sentence. Guess that’s why I could never be a lawyer.

It's not really that complicated? There's a list of competitions from which scores will be considered, they'll put skaters into priority groups based on their placements at Nationals and how their scores compare to certain benchmarks, and skaters in higher priority groups will be the first ones considered for Olympic spots.

They define what the score benchmarks are (and where they come from). They define how they'll measure consistency. And they define what will be considered to separate skaters with similar results, including which competitions are most important, and list tiebreakers.

Now, whether they'll actually follow what they've set out here remains to be seen, but it's pretty clear and sensible imo, and the criteria are well defined. Certainly not impossible to understand if you take a few minutes to read it.

 

[TontoK]

The USFS document says on p. 18 (emphasis added):

" ... The data provided from the events listed in 1.2.1. will provide a body of work within a 12-month period prior to the 2022 Olympic Winter Games that will demonstrate the athlete’s/team’s consistency, trajectory of improvement, and ability to achieve competitive and/or medal potential scores at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games as described in 1.3.B. and 1.3.C. ..."​

Hersh did not misread that part.

(And Hersh did not say that BOW is not being used. I don't understand where that mischaracterization of his tweeting is coming from?)

I'm not a fan of body of work as a selection criteria. It discounts the possibility of a skater having everything fall into place right when it's needed most.

However, if there MUST be an ill-advised body of work consideration, at least it is only including a limited number of events that are reasonably recent. A lot can change in a year... beyond that, the results are hardly worth looking at, much less serving as the basis for team selection.

 

[TontoK]

It's not really that complicated? There's a list of competitions from which scores will be considered, they'll put skaters into priority groups based on their placements at Nationals and how their scores compare to certain benchmarks, and skaters in higher priority groups will be the first ones considered for Olympic spots.

They define what the score benchmarks are (and where they come from). They define how they'll measure consistency. And they define what will be considered to separate skaters with similar results, including which competitions are most important, and list tiebreakers.

Now, whether they'll actually follow what they've set out here remains to be seen, but it's pretty clear and sensible imo, and the criteria are well defined. Certainly not impossible to understand if you take a few minutes to read it.

This is another thing that bugs me about body of work. The Olympic Games have no bearing on the number of spots a federation earns for the following year. There's really no reason for Nationals not to serve as the Olympic Trials. Want to go to the Olympics? Prove it by finishing Top 3 at Nationals.

Although I still don't like it, there's more justification for a body of work argument for the WC team, where the results impact the next season.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

This is another thing that bugs me about body of work. The Olympic Games have no bearing on the number of spots a federation earns for the following year. There's really no reason for Nationals not to serve as the Olympic Trials. Want to go to the Olympics? Prove it by finishing Top 3 at Nationals.

Although I still don't like it, there's more justification for a body of work argument for the WC team, where the results impact the next season.

The USFSA and USOC do care about Olympic medals though, and the selections can make a difference for the team event, if not for the individual ones. To be honest, I actually trust this body of work policy more than the judges/tech panels at Nationals who determine the placements.

 

[Skatesocs]

It's not really that complicated?

It's really not. It's a bunch of jargon they've introduced to say they're making sure to use previous performances as well as scoring potential to make their decision Just as they used to.

This is another thing that bugs me about body of work. The Olympic Games have no bearing on the number of spots a federation earns for the following year. There's really no reason for Nationals not to serve as the Olympic Trials. Want to go to the Olympics? Prove it by finishing Top 3 at Nationals.

I think there's a bit of a difference, where we can default to previous work. When the 3/4 places are very close, just as an example (or 2/3 if they had only two spots). Sometimes there can be a wrong call which knocks the skater out of bronze contention, or sometimes the 4th place might have delivered a bit below their potential, but still very well (and 3rd place might not have performed better than they did all season, so we're unsure if they will again). So having a softer criteria to allow such a decision to have some subjectivity and human judgement, it is a good thing.

In general though, I do think Nationals should have most weight. If you can't deliver at Nationals, then how can we count on you at the Olympics? Nerves isn't an excuse then, because Olympics will cause even more nerves. So such a decision should only be reserved for borderline cases, instead of propping a favorite who bombed up, as has happened in the past.

 

[macy]

Additional detail from Hersh: The “body of work” criteria will cover results in the 12 months before the Olympics, which means this season and 2021 worlds. Consistency of scores will be more important than one spectacular result. Scores at 2021 worlds, 2021 Grand Prix Final and 2022 US Champs to weigh most

this seems pretty fair and logical to me. i never understood why they would want to take a skater who didn't do well in any of their international assignments but had one amazing showing at nationals, when the olympics is the biggest international competition you can compete at.

 

[TontoK]

this seems pretty fair and logical to me. i never understood why they would want to take a skater who didn't do well in any of their international assignments but had one amazing showing at nationals, when the olympics is the biggest international competition you can compete at.

Because when the lights were the absolute brightest, when the pressure was the most intense, when the stakes were the highest...

One athlete handled that, and one didn't.

 

[Skatesocs]

Although I do think having a 4CC skate off would be best. The problem is, it is usually too close to US Nationals.

 

[macy]

Because when the lights were the absolute brightest, when the pressure was the most intense, when the stakes were the highest...

One athlete handled that, and one didn't.

i don't think that's true at all. in the case of Ashley Wagner, she continually showed up in international competition, worlds included, the years before Sochi selection. she won major international medals competing against the sports biggest names. she won and kept Olympic spots at worlds. she had a bad competition at nationals that season, and it was her body of work that got her on the team, deservedly so. she had already proved she could show up when it counted most, under the highest pressure, and win medals for the US. the federation could trust her on the biggest stage.

On the opposite hand, this is exactly why Ross Miner was not selected in 2018. he had one amazing competition at nationals with nothing else to back that up. he hadn't won an international medal in over 2 years and hadn't even been on the national podium in 5 years. he couldn't deliver when it counted. USFS couldn't count on him. this was also why Amber was not selected for worlds last season. they aren't going to pick a skater who showed up one time to represent them on the biggest stage in the sport when they already couldn't show up on smaller stages. it is a huge gamble and risk to select a skater who is inconsistent and can't hold their own in international competition. IMO the risk well outweighs any possible reward and it's not worth throwing the dice.

Definitely not trying to rehash any of that, just providing those situations as examples why i don't think it makes any sense to put so much weight on one competition in the whole entire season, and a domestic one at that. nationals should absolutely count and hold a lot of weight, but it should not be "trials" or the deciding competition when many times it hasn't been a representation either way of what a skater can or cannot do.

 

[Dawn825]

Because when the lights were the absolute brightest, when the pressure was the most intense, when the stakes were the highest...

One athlete handled that, and one didn't.

Thats one way of looking at it, another would be you wouldnt want to send a skater who only performs well in their home country, with their whole family in the audience, with fellow competitors who are genuinely their friends, with no Russians in sight...to the Olympics.

Although I do think having a 4CC skate off would be best. The problem is, it is usually too close to US Nationals.

That would be so exciting as a viewer and add some much needed drama to 4CC, but for the skaters I think its probably more fair to make a final decision at Nationals.

 

[Skatesocs]

That would be so exciting as a viewer and add some much needed drama to 4CC but for the skaters I think its probably more fair to make a final decision at Nationals. It would be cruel to have certain skaters in February not know if theyre going to the Olympics in March.

4CCs are held in January, like US nationals. Olympics in February. The 4CCs are held a week or so after Nationals, actually. The problem isn't the time to make the decision, rather the time between the two events, and then the Olympics right afterwards.

Unfortunately, US nationals can't be held earlier due to a variety of reasons. I don't think it's so cruel to skaters. Weren't clearly better at Nationals, so show up again. Russia tends to do this (nationals in December, Europeans in January) and Canada sometimes to does this, IIRC.

 

[Skatesocs]

Thats one way of looking at it, another would be you wouldnt want to send a skater who only performs well in their home country, with their whole family in the audience, with fellow competitors who are genuinely their friends, with no Russians in sight...to the Olympics.

But then, they wouldn't be using nationals of the previous season, and worlds of the previous season for the primary tier of BoW. If we are to test Olympic preparation using the criterion you suggest, the most weight should be given to the American women who make the GPF this season! (ETA: Meaning, if the primary focus were to be on the Russian skaters who are possibly going to be competing in the Olympics, then the most focus would be on GPF, and probably also the fields of the individual GPs for that matter, whenever relevant. Yet, we see GPF 2021 being lumped together with 2021 Worlds, and 2022 Nationals, and also see 2021 Nationals has some weight)

 

[TontoK]

i don't think that's true at all. in the case of Ashley Wagner, she continually showed up in international competition, worlds included, the years before Sochi selection. she won major international medals competing against the sports biggest names. she won and kept Olympic spots at worlds. she had a bad competition at nationals that season, and it was her body of work that got her on the team, deservedly so. she had already proved she could show up when it counted most, under the highest pressure, and win medals for the US. the federation could trust her on the biggest stage.

On the opposite hand, this is exactly why Ross Miner was not selected in 2018. he had one amazing competition at nationals with nothing else to back that up. he hadn't won an international medal in over 2 years and hadn't even been on the national podium in 5 years. he couldn't deliver when it counted. USFS couldn't count on him. this was also why Amber was not selected for worlds last season. they aren't going to pick a skater who showed up one time to represent them on the biggest stage in the sport when they already couldn't show up on smaller stages. it is a huge gamble and risk to select a skater who is inconsistent and can't hold their own in international competition. IMO the risk well outweighs any possible reward and it's not worth throwing the dice.

Definitely not trying to rehash any of that, just providing those situations as examples why i don't think it makes any sense to put so much weight on one competition in the whole entire season, and a domestic one at that. nationals should absolutely count and hold a lot of weight, but it should not be "trials" or the deciding competition when many times it hasn't been a representation either way of what a skater can or cannot do.

Agree not to rehash (at least extensively), but worth pointing out that the year Ashley was chosen, she finished 7th at the Olympics. The year Adam was chosen, he finished 10th. These are not shameful results, but they're hardly podium placements either. Mediocre Nationals performances led to mediocre Olympic performances. Would the athletes who beat them at Nationals, but were not selected for the team, have had better results? We'll never know. The other question is would it have mattered if Ross finished 12th or Mirai finished 9th... or even worse? That answer is pretty clear to me, and it's "no, it would not have mattered."

To me, the discussion hinges on "seizing my Olympic dream with a lights out performance" vs "relying on my past laurels."

Edit: We've gotten off topic, and I acknowledge I contributed to the side discussion. I'll leave this alone, at least until Nationals, and there is a lot of skating to do before then.

 

[Skatesocs]

These are not shameful results, but they're hardly podium placements either. Mediocre Nationals performances led to mediocre Olympic performances. Would the athletes who beat them at Nationals, but were not selected for the team, have had better results? We'll never know. The other question is would it have mattered if Ross finished 12th or Mirai finished 9th... or even worse? That answer is pretty clear to me, and it's "no, it would not have mattered."

To me, the discussion hinges on "seizing my Olympic dream with a lights out performance" vs "relying on my past laurels."

Right, or about "creating Olympic stories". The answer in the cases you mentioned really came down to how good the USFS and/or USOC wants to look, and how marketable they found some. Actually, for all the criticism the Swedish Olympic Committee is (rightly) getting for perhaps not letting their skaters attend the Olympics to fulfill their own Olympic dreams, the iterations of US women's and men's discussions sure seem fine with crushing the dreams of someone who managed to finally make it at Nationals. Some Olympic dreams got crushed, but it doesn't matter, because they had "a better chance", of not even making it to the top 6. Okay.

(ETA: But at least Mirai got DWTS... and at least we can all ignore Miner now )

 

[alexocfp]

As long as the entry is based on the fed choosing rather than having a tangible points based table, your Olympic hopes rest on some suits huddled up in a room somewhere.

Should come up with an objective ranking system and take the top 2 and national champion or top 3 if the national champion is also in the top 2.

That skating has system that you can be the best in your country and still theoretically stay home is crazy for me.

Say what you want, but at least Sweden is honest and tells you flat out that if you can’t compete at the highest level, then we won’t support you.

 

[macy]

As long as the entry is based on the fed choosing rather than having a tangible points based table, your Olympic hopes rest on some suits huddled up in a room somewhere.

Should come up with an objective ranking system and take the top 2 and national champion or top 3 of the national champion is also in the top 2.

That skating has system that you can be the best in your country and still theoretically stay home is crazy for me.

Say what you want, but at least Sweden is honest and tells you flat out that if you can’t compete at the highest level, then we won’t support you.

i agree with having a rule that the national champion goes. i think that should be the only lock for the team.

i can't think of a time where the national champion hasn't been named to the team...has this ever happened? if not, why not make it a rule?

 

[Mathman]

As long as the entry is based on the fed choosing rather than having a tangible points based table, your Olympic hopes rest on some suits huddled up in a room somewhere.

That is exactly why the selection procedure will never change in a substantive way. The backroomers will never give up their power to a bunch of numbers.

In all versions of the slection procefure, it's give a little here, take a little there, do a little two-step. Performance at Nationals is importanmt. Placement in international competiition is importamt. Even the much maligned "reputation" plays a role (rule of thumb -- it you have a world champion, send her!). Statistically, none of the individual criteria can boast overwhelming success as a predictor. Sometimes the favoites dominate the O;ympics, sometimes a relative newcomer shines.

 

[ramurphy2005]

i agree with having a rule that the national champion goes. i think that should be the only lock for the team.

i can't think of a time where the national champion hasn't been named to the team...has this ever happened? if not, why not make it a rule?

I can't think of any national champions who ended up being too young during an Olympic year.

We've got more recent examples of national champions not going to Worlds because they were too young, Mirai and Alysa.