She doesn't need the triple axel to get on the Olympic team, correct, given the state of US senior ladies right now as long as Bradie is not splatting and semi-regularly rotates her jumps at every competition she's likely going to be put on the team. But I think the triple axel was about being more competitive on the international scene for Olympics/Worlds and gold medals possibly at GP events than being able to get on the Olympic team.
2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating
- Thread starter Minz
- Start date
- Status
She doesn't need the triple axel to get on the Olympic team, correct, given the state of US senior ladies right now as long as Bradie is not splatting and semi-regularly rotates her jumps at every competition she's likely going to be put on the team. But I think the triple axel was about being more competitive on the international scene for Olympics/Worlds and gold medals possibly at GP events than being able to get on the Olympic team.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2017
What a nice article to read and see a different side of her. Some of the stuff isn't the most accurate, but it is obvious that what happened in 2018 helped shape her into the person she is today. (Also great pic! Get to be in my first NBC Sports article lol). She is the most down to earth positive person. I have seen her skate in 2014 and 2016 at nats and worlds, but being on the same ice as her and learning from her pushes me on and off the ice.Latest news from Ashley
After a highly decorated career, Ashley Wagner is proudest of current chapter in her story
The figure skater lives in the Boston area and studies psychology with the goal of having a therapy practice focusing on trauma and the LGBTQ+ community.olympics.nbcsports.com
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2021
I think both Alysa and Karen are relatively safe for the Olympics team. They both achieve BOW selection criteria set by USFSA. Even Alysa and Karen bomb and underperform in GP, it won't impact their placements in group anymore. The question is......Who is in group 3 next? Bradie? Lindsay?
Group 2: Alysa - scored ONCE equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds (Lombardia)
Group 3: Karen - scored ONCE equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds (4th place at World)
As long as Alysa is placed in top 5 and Karen is placed in top 3 at Nationals, they both are going to Beijing (assume no more other US lady will be in group 3). GP results (Alysa, Karen) don't really matter at this point....that's how I interpret and understand USFSA rules. They just need to achieve the high score ONCE (not constantly). Both Alysa and Karen have already fulfilled this season body of work selection criteria.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Sep 6, 2021
Alysa is looking guaranteed for the Olympics, and Karen is definitely skating like she will be on the team. But with Karen's rotation problems, it might effect her a lot for her GP and International assignments. And if she doesn't land her jumps cleanly, she will be scored very low. But what you mentioned does seem right with Alysa in the top 5, and Karen in the top 3 at Nats.
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2021
I just copy and paste the rules (top 5 at Nats for group 2 / top 3 at Nats for group 3) from USFSA document. I don't make up those rules.
If I interpret and understand the rules set by USFSA correctly, Karen's GP results are no longer considered at this point unless she has super high score that put her in group 2. Karen is already in group 3 with her World's result. Assume Karen has melt down in GP (just like Autumn classics) but she is managed to be on podium at Nats, Karen is going to Beijing. It would be very interesting to see how Alysa plays around those "rules". I guess she will add 3A in SP at GP but only do 2A in SP at Nats. There is nothing for Alysa to lose in GP and she will try to maximize the points there as much as possible. I think Alysa will play it safe at Nats.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Sep 6, 2021
Thank you for mentioning the things with the rules. I don't know very much about the group stuff. I hope that they send Karen if she gets top 3 at Nationals, and hopefully the US will make good decisions. I think they will. As we know, the reason they sent Karen instead of Amber at Worlds last season was because she has good International experience, and was the reason we have three spots. I do think she most likely will go to the Olympics.I just copy and paste the rules (top 5 at Nats for group 2 / top 3 at Nats for group 3) from USFSA document. I don't make up those rules.
If I interpret and understand the rules USFSA correctly, Karen's GP results are no longer considered at this point unless she has super high score that put her in group 2. Karen is already in group 3 with her World's result. Assume Karen has melt down in GP (just like Autumn classics) but she is managed to be on podium at Nats, Karen is going to Beijing. It would be very interesting to see how Alysa plays around those "rules". I guess she will add 3A in SP at GP but only do 2A in SP at Nats. There is nothing for Alysa to lose in GP and she will try to maximize the points there as much as possible. I think Alysa will play it safe at Nats.
- Joined
- Jul 31, 2019
Karen isn't a lock until we see what's going on with Mariah. There was a time (for a while) that Mariah one of our top 3 US ladies along with Alysa and Bradie. If Mariah does well at GPs and Nationals and is neck and neck with Karen, it'll be interesting to see who they pick. I'm sure they can justify whatever they want.
- Joined
- Nov 13, 2020
Also, as much as I love Karen, my concern for her is the bloodbath that is Skate Canada. She'll be up against Kamila Valieva, Liza Tuktamysheva, Aliona Kostornaia, and Rika Kihira. Not to mention Wakaba and Alysa, as well as other strong skaters.
I'm afraid that even if she skates lights out, her Technical BV simply won't be enough in that field.
I'm afraid that even if she skates lights out, her Technical BV simply won't be enough in that field.
- Joined
- Sep 6, 2021
If Mariah can get her jumping back on track, and with her bringing back her Hallelujah, I think she will have a much better shot at making the team.
Skaters can also satisfy Group 3 criteria by finishing top 3 at Nationals so Karen is not safe at all, especially if she herself does not finish in the top 3.
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2021
I'm more worried about Alysa than Karen at Skate Canada. It's very likely that she is going to add 3A in SP at GP. Her SP is getting much riskier by replacing 2A with 3A. Just look at how Sasha bomb her SP at World and Amber bomb her SP at Cranberry.....
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2015
No one is a 
lock for the Olympic team in October. Alysa and Karen are only locks if none of the other US women get similar scores on the GP or challengers or finish above them at Nationals. Bradie is completely capable of scoring higher than both if healthy. ( A big if). Lindsay has better jumps ( in terms of ISU bullet points) than either Alysa or Karen and could be sent to a Challenger and get a similar score. Amber is obviously capable of similar scores .( Although 5 to 1 she won't skate clean) Mariah could probably match Karen's score from Finlandia if she goes to an event with similar overscoring but I can't see her matching Alysa's. I can't really see any 3 US women scoring higher than Alysa did at Lombardia ( a very historically high scoring competition) so as long as she stays health she should be on the team but she isn't a lock because no one can predict the future. However, 3 women could pretty easily outscore Karen, basically all the other contenders are capable of it.
lock for the Olympic team in October. Alysa and Karen are only locks if none of the other US women get similar scores on the GP or challengers or finish above them at Nationals. Bradie is completely capable of scoring higher than both if healthy. ( A big if). Lindsay has better jumps ( in terms of ISU bullet points) than either Alysa or Karen and could be sent to a Challenger and get a similar score. Amber is obviously capable of similar scores .( Although 5 to 1 she won't skate clean) Mariah could probably match Karen's score from Finlandia if she goes to an event with similar overscoring but I can't see her matching Alysa's. I can't really see any 3 US women scoring higher than Alysa did at Lombardia ( a very historically high scoring competition) so as long as she stays health she should be on the team but she isn't a lock because no one can predict the future. However, 3 women could pretty easily outscore Karen, basically all the other contenders are capable of it.
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2015
Alysa doesn't bomb competitions. Even when she falls, she just carries on. This could change, but do far she hasn't ever shown any competitive weakness.
No, skaters have to finish top 3 at nationals and have scored over 208.44 once internationally or consistently over 193.44 for group 3. So technically we won't know who's in what group until nationals but we can analyse if they've met the preliminary international criteria for it.
I'm pretty sure it's finish top 3 at Nationals or score 208.44 once and/or consistently score 193.44 (equivalent to top 10 at Worlds 2021) for Group 3. For Group 2, though, it's finish top 5 and score 217.20 (equivalent to top 3 at Worlds 2021) once and/or consistently score 208.44.
Yeah, the combination of the "or" for Group 3 and the "and" for Group 2 is what really convinced me that Alysa is as much of a lock for the team as anyone can be in October. Even if she absolutely bombs Nationals and finishes out of the top 5, she'll still be in Group 3, and the only other US woman I realistically see moving above Group 3 is a healthy Bradie (and that itself is a huge question mark).You're right, sorry that's my bad!
Hmm that changes my analysis a fair bit
If everyone or everyone but Bradie is in Groups 3 and 4, that gives USFS plenty of wiggle room to send the people they want to send to the Olympics, and I can't see them choosing Amber, Lindsay, Mariah, or Audrey over Alysa.
Last edited:
| Top 3 | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 217.20 | 208.44 | 193.44 | 178.10 |
Group 1 candidates - consistent top 3
Nobody at the moment. But Alysa could. Then she'd only have to podium at nationals but even if she doesn't, she'll have a better case than any other group 2's.
Group 2 candidates - consistent top 5 or top 3 once
- Alysa has scored top 3 once already. She only needs to be in the top 5 at nationals to get group 2.
- Bradie has scored over the top 5 score seven times in her career and over top 3 twice (excl. Nationals)
- Karen has scored top 5 already. Her goal now is to reach group 2 international requirements.
- Lindsay needs to repeat her 193.77 score to get consistent top 10.
- Mariah has great potential to get consistent top 10. She has achieved this score nine times in her career and top 5 twice (excl. Nationals)
- Amber needs to score over top 5 once internationally first. She has only done this once in her career and it was at nationals. Consistent top 10 will be difficult as she has yet to get that internationally.
- Audrey Shin has potential to be here as she has scored 206.15 at Skate America. She will need to improve on that by a little bit once or consistently score near it this season.
- Anyone who podiums at nationals is here even if you've never posted an international score! (Thanks beepboop for the correction)
- Lindsay has a top 10 score already
- Mariah has one top 15 score so far. She has achieved top 15 fifteen times internationally
- Amber has top 15 once this season. She has achieved top 15 seven times internationally
- Gabriella Izzo has top 15 once this season. She has achieved top 15 twice internationally
- Anyone who achieves top 5 at nationals.
I liked it better when I thought it was AND the placement at nationals. For example, with AND, Karen would have potential to move to group 4 if she doesn't podium at nationals or not be in contention at all if she totally bombs. It's more complicated but it's a clear algorithm that relies less on favouritism.
The OR for group 3 gives USFSA a lot of wiggle room to pick and choose so skaters will really want to get that group 2 if they can. But if everyone but Alysa does just okay and ends up in group 3 then who knows what will happen.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked