2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[drivingmissdaisy]

Some people say Mariah missed her 3-3 at both Grand Prix events. My impression is that she always planned on doing 3-2s. My question is, what kind of foot injury keeps you from doing a 3-3 instead of 3-2? A broken toe?

This was Kwan's injury in 1998, which caused problems on her 2A and 3T and led to her doing a 3F as her solo triple in the SP (and also not doing a 3-3 at Nationals or the Olympics). Mariah seems to be recovering well and looked very solid in her most recent event, so it wouldn't surprise me to see her doing the 3-3 at Nationals.

 

[mrrice]

Big Opportunity for Amber coming at the Golden Spin. If she does well here, it will help her chances should she medal at Nationals. With Alysa, Lindsay, and Mariah looking really good, if Amber wants to keep the attention of the judges and the "Fed" she needs to make something happen at this event. She didn't make the final "Like the rest of the US ladies" so, she still has a chance at making the team.

 

[lurkerghost1]

I think it's unlikely Bradie makes the team. She would have to pull off quite the comeback at nationals to get on the team I think. The fact she withdrew from Golden Spin even though she could have scored 200+ there even without a 3-3 and solidified a spot on the Olympic team concerns me. I doubt she will have the stamina for a strong free at nationals even if she does compete.

Which means the clear favorites are Alysa, Mariah, and Karen. Lindsay is very consistent and Amber has a 3A maybe but I think the PCS gap at nationals will give Karen and Mariah some breathing room for mistakes. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karen and Mariah our score Lindsay in the short even without a 3-3 the way scores have been going.

 

[macy]

I think it's unlikely Bradie makes the team. She would have to pull off quite the comeback at nationals to get on the team I think. The fact she withdrew from Golden Spin even though she could have scored 200+ there even without a 3-3 and solidified a spot on the Olympic team concerns me. I doubt she will have the stamina for a strong free at nationals even if she does compete.

Which means the clear favorites are Alysa, Mariah, and Karen. Lindsay is very consistent and Amber has a 3A maybe but I think the PCS gap at nationals will give Karen and Mariah some breathing room for mistakes. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karen and Mariah our score Lindsay in the short even without a 3-3 the way scores have been going.

i don't think that's necessarily true. if Bradie shows up in good shape and places top 3, they'll no doubt put her on the team. she's been their number one for 4 years.

however, if she's 4th and Alysa, Mariah and Karen are top 3 i don't think they'll take her.

there are a lot of unknowns with Bradie's condition, literally nobody knows anything and nobody is going to know how she's looking until when and if she shows up at nationals. i do wonder if the fed is monitoring her.

 

[sheetz]

Sure, if Bradie shows up, skates lights out and places top 3 she'll get chosen for the team. But I honestly don't think that's realistic at this point. When was the last time she competed? WTT? And she WD well in advance of Zagreb so it sounds to me like things still aren't going great for her.

 

[mrrice]

Look, if Bradie were healthy I think we'd know it by now. I truly love her skating and I was so happy to see her get her title back last year but, I just don't see the Olympics happening for her. Fortunately, she's already had an Olympic experience and I wish her the best in her training. I guess she doesn't have the minimum scores to qualify for 4CC so, if she misses Nationals, her season is basically over.....

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Sure, if Bradie shows up, skates lights out and places top 3 she'll get chosen for the team. But I honestly don't think that's realistic at this point.

Bradie hasn't competed in awhile, but very few US women are doing 3-3s so she wouldn't have to be back at her best to medal at Nationals. A clean SP with two triples and LP with six would absolutely put her on the podium.

 

[sheetz]

Bradie hasn't competed in awhile, but very few US women are doing 3-3s so she wouldn't have to be back at her best to medal at Nationals. A clean SP with two triples and LP with six would absolutely put her on the podium.

I think if she were able to do that she would have gone to Zagreb. Or at least not pulled out until the last minute. The fact that she pulled out so early indicates to me that she wasn't close.

 

[macy]

Sure, if Bradie shows up, skates lights out and places top 3 she'll get chosen for the team. But I honestly don't think that's realistic at this point. When was the last time she competed? WTT? And she WD well in advance of Zagreb so it sounds to me like things still aren't going great for her.

i agree with this, the likelihood is getting slimmer and slimmer and it's probably not realistic. i really feel for her.

 

[ice coverage]

... Bradie ... I guess she doesn't have the minimum scores to qualify for 4CC so, if she misses Nationals, her season is basically over.....

Bradie does have the minimums for Four Continents -- as well as for Olympics and for Worlds.

If USFS were to select her for any of those teams, the minimums would be a non-issue for her.

International scores from the previous season and the current season always count toward ISU minimums.
(Side note that because of the pandemic, a temporary addition is that scores from the 2019-20 season also count toward minimums for 2022 ISU championships.)

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So if they move the JGP to the end of the season, Isabeau will still be out? (Even if she would be fit to compete at this time)

I too have been wondering what it would mean for Isabeau if JGPF were to take place after a long postponement.
I hope that it would be possible to reverse her withdrawal.
But I expect that it will remain an unanswered question unless/until ISU eventually were to announce that JGPF has been rescheduled for a specific time and place down the road.

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Honestly, my bigger worry for Amber is that she gets the Courtney Hicks treatment, who got relatively better marks from international panels than the national ones. The USFSA has preferred more artistic women at least as far back as the Tonya vs Kristi/Nancy days.

I certainly am not a judge, international or national.
Will just say that for li'l' ol' me, I find Amber superior to other U.S. women in drawing me into her performance and making me feel what she is expressing -- which is what I love most about her. For me, she is not less artistic than other women.

 

[mrrice]

Bradie does have the minimums for Four Continents -- as well as for Olympics and for Worlds.

If USFS were to select her for any of those teams, the minimums would be a non-issue for her.

International scores from the previous season and the current season always count toward ISU minimums.
(Side note that because of the pandemic, a temporary addition is that scores from the 2019-20 season also count toward minimums for 2022 ISU championships.)

---

I too have been wondering what it would mean for Isabeau if JGPF were to take place after a long postponement.
I hope that it would be possible to reverse her withdrawal.
But I expect that it will remain an unanswered question unless/until ISU eventually were to announce that JGPF has been rescheduled for a specific time and place down the road.

---

I certainly am not a judge, international or national.
Will just say that for li'l' ol' me, I find Amber superior to other U.S. women in drawing me into her performance and making me feel what she is expressing -- which is what I love most about her. For me, she is not less artistic than other women.

 

[lurkerghost1]

I think if she were able to do that she would have gone to Zagreb. Or at least not pulled out until the last minute. The fact that she pulled out so early indicates to me that she wasn't close.

Yes that was my point, she would have gone to Zagreb even without a 3-3. The fact she didn’t makes me think her comeback is slower than expected.

However, I disagree with those who say Bradie missing nationals will end her season. If she can recover by Worlds I absolutely see them sending her if she wants, especially if Mariah and Karen go to the Olympics and skip worlds. The presumed team otherwise (Alysa Amber Lindsay) will struggle to keep 3 spots even with the depleted field at post-Olympic worlds. Putting Bradie in instead of Amber or Lindsay gives them another contender for the top 7 along with Alysa and a chance to keep 3 spots. And the decision to send Karen over Amber last year shows the US is willing to strategize based on skaters’ potential

 

[katymay]

Amber's skating skills are very good, she skates fast, with speed into jumps, lovely edges, etc. I don't think her PCS is any less than Karen for example. But, she has a history of not putting it all together, a popped jump here, silly fall there, botched spin, lost levels, etc. If she actually put out a near perfect program-with the 3A, I hate to think how high she would score. I'll watch her hit a huge combo in practice, and on warmup, and then right off the top, in the program it is off kilter. I dunno what happens to her. Golden spin is going to be very important for her Olympic chances, and she almost needs to WIN Nationals-which-if she put everything together, she could do. It is possible. I don't think we will see Brady at Nationals, but I hope I'm wrong. (I don't think we will see Hanyu, Trusova or Rika at the Olympics either this year)

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Yes that was my point, she would have gone to Zagreb even without a 3-3. The fact she didn’t makes me think her comeback is slower than expected.

What you're saying is very possible. However, she may also not want to risk missing training time by traveling internationally and putting herself at higher risk of contracting covid. It's close enough to Nationals that if she's off the ice sick for two weeks, there's probably no chance of performing well.

 

[halulupu]

Amber's skating skills are very good, she skates fast, with speed into jumps, lovely edges, etc. I don't think her PCS is any less than Karen for example. But, she has a history of not putting it all together, a popped jump here, silly fall there, botched spin, lost levels, etc. If she actually put out a near perfect program-with the 3A, I hate to think how high she would score. I'll watch her hit a huge combo in practice, and on warmup, and then right off the top, in the program it is off kilter. I dunno what happens to her. Golden spin is going to be very important for her Olympic chances, and she almost needs to WIN Nationals-which-if she put everything together, she could do. It is possible. I don't think we will see Brady at Nationals, but I hope I'm wrong. (I don't think we will see Hanyu, Trusova or Rika at the Olympics either this year)

Amber realistically needs to win Golden Spin with a good 200+ score, if she wants to keep up her hope for the Olympics. Will she deliver this time? Not very probable

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Amber realistically needs to win Golden Spin with a good 200+ score, if she wants to keep up her hope for the Olympics. Will she deliver this time? Not very probable

While she should at least make the podium, I don't think any result in Zagreb will keep Amber off the team if she medals at Nationals (assuming she isn't 3rd, ahead of Alysa in 4th or 5th). She, like Mariah and Karen, has already posted a 200+ result once this season. Karen had the good placement at Worlds but didn't follow it up with consistent results this season, so I don't think she would get a spot if she finishes off the podium.

 

[mrrice]

While she should at least make the podium, I don't think any result in Zagreb will keep Amber off the team if she medals at Nationals (assuming she isn't 3rd, ahead of Alysa in 4th or 5th). She, like Mariah and Karen, has already posted a 200+ result once this season. Karen had the good placement at Worlds but didn't follow it up with consistent results this season, so I don't think she would get a spot if she finishes off the podium.

This is how I feel and I hope that's the way it goes at Nationals. I think it will be tight between Amber, Lindsay and Karen. I had Mariah behind Lindsay until her latest outing where she really impressed me. So much pressure in Russia with that amazing field of ladies and Mariah held her own.

 

[saturdaysun]

Karen beat Mariah head-to-head just one week earlier. Recency bias is real...

 

[Amei]

Karen beat Mariah head-to-head just one week earlier. Recency bias is real...

Well I do think that people get caught up in the moment, at IDF Karen only beat Mariah by about 3 points, its not like it was some huge margin. And in comparison of their GP seasons, Karen had a decent outing at IDF and a terrible outing at Skate Canada; Mariah had a decent outing at IDF and a great (by US ladies standards) outing at Rostelecom.

 

[mrrice]

Karen beat Mariah head-to-head just one week earlier. Recency bias is real...

When I make predictions I always base them on both skaters going clean. From a Base Value standpoint, Karen is Behind Alysa, Lindsay, and a clean Mariah and Amber. Karen had all the momentum going into the season after her placement at Worlds but, she just hasn't been great, "Yet" I certainly didn't have her making the World Team last year and without the committee, she wouldn't have. I don't see her getting a committee pick this year with the way the rest of the field has been scoring. Has Karen broken 200 this year?