2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[elliana]

Based on the criteria that USFS set out back in July, Mariah and Karen are both ahead of Amber in the pecking order because Mariah and Karen both crossed the 208.44 threshold for what would have been top 5 at Worlds last year. Karen hasn't crossed that threshold this season, but she did at Worlds 2021, and that's good enough for the committee. Karen also gets the added bonus of having "consistently scored top 10" by the committee's definition since Worlds 2021 scores also count for that, and her median score at eligible competitions this season is 194, just above the 193.44 needed to be top 10 at Worlds 2021. Mariah's 210.35 is above the top 5 threshold they drew, and her median score (her Cranberry score doesn't count since that's not an eligible competition) is 200.57, which is also above the threshold needed for consistent top 10.

Are USFS's boundaries somewhat arbitrary? Yes, but the line has to be drawn somewhere, and this is how they've decided it.

Ok I was getting dizzy just reading that but I believe you

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

If the team were chosen today without Nationals results, it would be Alysa, Karen, and Mariah. For any of Bradie, Amber, or Lindsay to make the Olympic team, they would need to place in the top 3 at US Nationals. Alysa is still essentially a lock for the team since she only needs to place top 5 to be guaranteed to go since no one is making it into groups 1 or 2. Mariah and Karen are in a solid position, but they still need to perform their best at Nationals.

IIRC a medal at Nationals gets you in Group 3, so two of those five who are the highest finishers at Nationals should make the team. For example, if the podium is Alysa, Amber, and Lindsay, the latter two move to Group 3 (and also bump Mariah and Karen off the Nationals podium), so I don't see the USFSA not going with the podium in that case. I think the goal for everyone this season was to get into Group 2 because that gives you priority over Nationals podium finishers, but only one skater achieved that.

 

[dancelion21]

IIRC a medal at Nationals gets you in Group 3, so two of those five who are the highest finishers at Nationals should make the team. For example, if the podium is Alysa, Amber, and Lindsay, the latter two move to Group 3 (and also bump Mariah and Karen off the Nationals podium), so I don't see the USFSA not going with the podium in that case. I think the goal for everyone this season was to get into Group 2 because that gives you priority over Nationals podium finishers, but only one skater achieved that.

Yep, I think USFS will put Amber and Lindsay on the team if they make the podium. However, it gets more dicey if someone who currently isn't in the groups makes top 3. Like, I don't think they'll put someone like Gabby Izzo on the Olympic team if she were top 3, only if she were to win.

Also, Isabeau is an interesting factor. Before her injury, she and Alysa looked like they were going to be top 2 at Nationals. So what happens if the top 5 are 1) Alysa, 2) Isabeau, 3) Mariah, 4) Amber, 5) Karen. Would the committee take Amber or Karen?

Technically based on the rules, Amber didn't make top 3 overall, but she is in the top 3 of senior age eligible ladies. I think whether they take Amber or Karen in this case depends very heavily on the points differential between Amber and Karen. If it's like US Nationals last year where Amber was only a point ahead of Karen, the committee will choose Karen just like they did last year for Worlds. However, if Amber wins resoundingly compared to Karen, the committee might decide that "top 3" means top 3 age eligible competitors, so Amber will get bumped to Group 3 and they choose Amber.

 

[mrrice]

This was a huge opportunity for Amber. For her not to land her 3/3 or her 3A will be a problem heading into Nationals. Alysa has a solid 3/3 and so does Lindsay. Unfortunately, that's it for the top ladies. I think Karen landed a 3/3 early in the season but she has yet to medal at her events. Mariah certainly has the component marks to keep her ahead of Amber and Karen if she has clean skates at Nationals. It's going to be a nail biter.

 

[jenaj]

Is there any news on Bradie? I would think she would be on the team if she is on the podium at Nationals. Right now, I like Alysa and Mariah and either Karen or Bradie. I think Bradie would be a stronger team member, assuming she is recovered from her injury.

 

[ptvvibezz]

Bradie was supposed to be at Golden Spin but withdrew, I'm hoping to see her skate in person in Nashville but

 

[moonvine]

The Olympics are a whole different animal. Look at Adelina Sotnikova. She has ZERO World Medals and 2 Silvers from Europeans. She had lost to Yulia just weeks before Sochi and was not the favorite going in. No one that I know had Sarah Huges winning in 2002. She had exactly one win over Irina and Michelle in her entire career going into Salt Lake City. That was Skate Canada but, she lost Nationals to Michelle that same season. I think most people expected Yuna Kim to win in Sochi, and some people think she should have. Blanket statements like this are often proven wrong.

Sarah Hughes skated during the era of 6.0 and then anything could really happen. Although Sochi was under the IJS it was different from how it is today.

If all the Russian, Japanese and Korean ladies bombed, sure Alysa could stand on the podium. But to me ladies now is the most boring discipline next to ice dance. Artistry doesn’t really enter into it, so there’s not incentive to work on that. One has to be Jason Brown level of artist to bother the podium (and have other men falter) and he’s a generational talent who has had years to work on his artistry. Women don’t get that luxury.

If one of the US ladies (or a lady from any other country) gets a solid, consistent 3A and a couple of solid, consistent quads between now and the Olympics, ok, sure, they might be in the mix. They’d still be at a disadvantage because the judges weren’t accustomed to seeing it, but they’d have a chance.

Turning a 3-2 into a 3-3 might move a lady from 12th to 11th.

Believe me I hope I’m 100% wrong and we have women’s medalists from Australia, USA and I dunno, Israel (literally picking countries randomly).

I wish I did not feel secure in making these predictions and that any lady could win on a given day.

 

[mrrice]

Is there any news on Bradie? I would think she would be on the team if she is on the podium at Nationals. Right now, I like Alysa and Mariah and either Karen or Bradie. I think Bradie would be a stronger team member, assuming she is recovered from her injury.

I agree about Bradie Tennell. She was so great at Nationals last year and I was really looking forward to seeing her this year. I want Karen to make it because her 4th place at Worlds is the reason we have 3 spots for the Olympics. Unfortunately, she has not had a great GP season.

 

[moonvine]

Is there any news on Bradie? I would think she would be on the team if she is on the podium at Nationals. Right now, I like Alysa and Mariah and either Karen or Bradie. I think Bradie would be a stronger team member, assuming she is recovered from her injury.

I really don’t think we will see Bradie this season. I pray I am wrong.

 

[mrrice]

Sarah Hughes skated during the era of 6.0 and then anything could really happen. Although Sochi was under the IJS it was different from how it is today.

If all the Russian, Japanese and Korean ladies bombed, sure Alysa could stand on the podium. But to me ladies now is the most boring discipline next to ice dance. Artistry doesn’t really enter into it, so there’s not incentive to work on that. One has to be Jason Brown level of artist to bother the podium (and have other men falter) and he’s a generational talent who has had years to work on his artistry. Women don’t get that luxury.

If one of the US ladies (or a lady from any other country) gets a solid, consistent 3A and a couple of solid, consistent quads between now and the Olympics, ok, sure, they might be in the mix. They’d still be at a disadvantage because the judges weren’t accustomed to seeing it, but they’d have a chance.

Turning a 3-2 into a 3-3 might move a lady from 12th to 11th.

Believe me I hope I’m 100% wrong and we have women’s medalists from Australia, USA and I dunno, Israel (literally picking countries randomly).

I wish I did not feel secure in making these predictions and that any lady could win on a given day.

Sadly, I don't think we've had a solid 3A attempt from any of the US women. Lindsay tried one and it was badly UR'd and we just saw Amber's attempt. Alysa has landed a 3A but, not in competition this season. I take that back, she landed a 3A at Skate Canada.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Also, Isabeau is an interesting factor. Before her injury, she and Alysa looked like they were going to be top 2 at Nationals. So what happens if the top 5 are 1) Alysa, 2) Isabeau, 3) Mariah, 4) Amber, 5) Karen. Would the committee take Amber or Karen?

Technically based on the rules, Amber didn't make top 3 overall, but she is in the top 3 of senior age eligible ladies. I think whether they take Amber or Karen in this case depends very heavily on the points differential between Amber and Karen. If it's like US Nationals last year where Amber was only a point ahead of Karen, the committee will choose Karen just like they did last year for Worlds. However, if Amber wins resoundingly compared to Karen, the committee might decide that "top 3" means top 3 age eligible competitors, so Amber will get bumped to Group 3 and they choose Amber.

In this situation, I'd be good with Karen being selected over Amber because, based on the criteria, Karen would be in a higher group. Isabeau making the podium is something that would help Mariah and Karen because it would prevent an eligible skater from making the podium (which puts her in Group 3). My reading of the groupings is that "top 3" means the podium.

 

[b-man]

The Olympics are a whole different animal. Look at Adelina Sotnikova. She has ZERO World Medals and 2 Silvers from Europeans. She had lost to Yulia just weeks before Sochi and was not the favorite going in. No one that I know had Sarah Huges winning in 2002. She had exactly one win over Irina and Michelle in her entire career going into Salt Lake City. That was Skate Canada but, she lost Nationals to Michelle that same season. I think most people expected Yuna Kim to win in Sochi, and some people think she should have. Blanket statements like this are often proven wrong.

Well, it helps if you have your own technical controller om the panel, or if you do a level 3 step seqn and are credited with level 4, and your competition does a level 4 and is credited with level 3.

 

[Skatingcat]

I would think that the USA needs to focus on retaining its three spots, since none of them are capable of medaling, barring some crazy event where the russians and japanese don't compete.

 

[skaket023]

Yes, and there is the Team Event to think of also.

With Nathan, that could mean an Olympic Medal for one of the girls. Does Karen have one from the last Olympics?

 

[moonvine]

Yes, and there is the Team Event to think of also.

With Nathan, that could mean an Olympic Medal for one of the girls. Does Karen have one from the last Olympics?

She does not. I expect they’ll have Alysa do both parts though. I wish there were more swapping allowed or better yet for everyone to get a medal.

 

[skaket023]

She does not. I expect they’ll have Alysa do both parts though. I wish there were more swapping allowed or better yet for everyone to get a medal.

Karen Chen's highest SP score is comparable with Alysa's. They could have Karen do the short and Alysa the Free.

 

[readernick]

Karen Chen's highest SP score is comparable with Alysa's. They could have Karen do the short and Alysa the Free.

They likely won't because they can only choose two disciplines to substitute. Men and ice dance are far stronger than women. Even US pairs are better than the women.

 

[dancelion21]

Karen Chen's highest SP score is comparable with Alysa's. They could have Karen do the short and Alysa the Free.

Alysa will absolutely do the short program because the short program is more high stakes. There will be ten ladies participating in the short program, so if a lady messes up, she can easily tumble down the rankings and that buries the US' silver medal hopes. However, since there are only five ladies in the free program, if she messes up, the worst that can happen is that she ends up fifth. As the most consistent lady, it's imperative for Alysa to do the short since she's the least likely to mess up dramatically. Because of the way the team event is structured, even with Alysa's underrotations, she's pretty solidly going to end up in third place.

This reasoning was also why Nathan did the short program in 2018 and why everyone thinks Nathan will do the short program in 2022. If your best skater can only do one program, you want it to be the short, since the short is where the medals are really won or lost.

Also, I'm fine with Alysa being the only US lady to get a team medal. The other ladies just don't deserve it with the way that they've performed on the fall circuit. At least, they certainly deserve it less than H/D and C/B, who have both been remarkably strong and consistent over seasons, winning Grand Prix, 4CC, and World medals. It would honestly feel quite unfair if ladies was split while dance wasn't, so a US lady who would probably end up finishing tenth gets a team medal over the No. 2 US dance team, who are likely to end up finishing fourth or fifth.

 

[mrrice]

They likely won't because they can only choose two disciplines to substitute. Men and ice dance are far stronger than women. Even US pairs are better than the women.

I have to agree here. I don't think Nathan or Vincent have lost any of the Russian or Canadian Men. Our Ice Dancers are always at or near the top at every event. If Lindsay makes it, I believe her LP has the most technical content of all the Ladies and if Alysa has a clean short, it could keep them in the top 3. Assuming the Russian and Japanese skaters take the top 2 spots. A Silver Medal is the best we are looking at. Russia has the top Ladies, Pairs, and is close to the top in Ice Dance as well. I'm expecting the battle to be for the Silver with Canada.

 

[dancelion21]

I have to agree here. I don't think Nathan or Vincent have lost any of the Russian or Canadian Men. Our Ice Dancers are always at or near the top at every event. If Lindsay makes it, I believe her LP has the most technical content of all the Ladies and if Alysa has a clean short, it could keep them in the top 3. Assuming the Russian and Japanese skaters take the top 2 spots. A Silver Medal is the best we are looking at. Russia has the top Ladies, Pairs, and is close to the top in Ice Dance as well. I'm expecting the battle to be for the Silver with Canada.

Nah, the battle for silver is with Japan. The only discipline where Canada is near the top is dance. Their pairs have been a mess this entire fall circuit. The men are inconsistent, and their strongest lady is Maddie Schizas, whose career high is 192.14. Canada will not be anywhere close to the medal race.

By contrast, Japan will likely place second in both mens and ladies, their pairs team has performed spectacularly this fall, and will likely be in third place in the pairs team event, behind only China and Russia. Miura/Kihira are certainly more consistent than any of the US pairs have been. Dance is still weaker, but Muramoto/Takahashi have made up a lot of ground in very short time. Japan will likely still lose out on the silver due to their weaker dance, but if the US pairs drop the ball (as they are prone to do), Japan could definitely take silver.